CAPSTONE PROJECT

1. Overview of the negotiation

This Capstone project will focus on the string of negotiations around the Iran nuclear
program that have led to the historic nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA), signed on July 14th, 2015 by Iran and six world powers known as the P5+1 (China,
France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States). On October 18,
2015, the JCPOA became effective and participants started to make the necessary
preparations for the implementation of their JCPOA commitments. The JCPOA included
clauses that covered key topics such as nuclear and related facilities, transparency,
sanctions, implementation plan and dispute resolution mechanism. The objective of this
plan was to ensure that Iran's nuclear program would be exclusively peaceful and allow
close monitor from other countries and international organizations.

The deal was struck after long negotiations that began 11 years ago, following the 2002
discovery of a secret nuclear program led by the Islamic Republic of Iran. At that time, the
open anti-Israel and anti-American agenda of Iran raised great concerns regarding its ability
to build the bomb. At the time, the US could not afford another war in the Middle-East,
after having sent troops in Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2004). Although Iran was listed as a
“rogue state” by the Bush administration, no military action was set and negotiations
started, following the initiative of Germany, France and Great Britain.

The agenda of the negotiations was as vast as can be. The nuclear topic vs. economic
sanctions were the very core of discussions, but much more was at stake: Israel and Saudi
Arabia’s stability in the Middle-East. Many other topics came on the table: Turkey, Bahrain,
and also the ‘Islamic State’ (ISIS). Starting from November 1967, since Iran had built its first
nuclear reactor, many different stakeholders had been involved in the negotiations and
several agreements had been made and broken during the past decades.

2. Background of the negotiations

The Iranian nuclear issue had been at the forefront of international affairs since 2002. Iran,
the IAEA, and various groupings of world powers –in 2004 and 2005, there were France, the
UK, Germany (the so-called “E3”), joined in 2006 by China, Russia, and the US (the so-called
P5+1, to mean the 5 permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (“UNSC”)
plus Germany) – had made numerous attempts to negotiate a diplomatic settlement.
Negotiators had been neither failing nor succeeding. But Iran had been piling up rich
uranium. Proposals, such as the fuel swap, made during negotiations had been described as
one track of a “dual track strategy”. The second track was UNSC resolutions which imposed
sanctions on Iran and demanded it suspend all uranium enrichment-related and
reprocessing activities, as well as construction of a heavy-water reactor.
Iran’s nuclear program began in the 1950s, but was slow to progress. Iran had long been a
democracy with its Constitution dating back to 1906 and was a rather liberal institution with
a Parliament, elections and an accountable government. Iran is technically a theocracy
today. Iran was sent into geostrategic prominence, at least in the eyes of the UK and
neighboring countries, the moment oil started to flow.
There were three points in history that contributed to forming the Iranian regime and
psyche, important to consider when preparing for those negotiations: a) the 1953 coup to
overthrow Mossadegh); b) the 1979 Iranian revolution; c) the post Iranian revolution
context since the 1980s.

a) 1953 coup to overthrow Mossadegh

In brief, the 1953 coup was organized to overthrow the “democratically” elected
government of Mohammad Mossadegh, who ruled Iran between 1951 and 1953.
Mossadegh had two major issues: the issue of oil and liberation of Iran from the UK
presence (oil explorations go back to the early years of the 1900s with early explorers
paying 20,000 pounds and 16% of rights to the Shah ruler) and meddling into the Iranian
economy. In need of money for a major program of reforms and in line with his nationalist
agenda, Mossadegh asked for a 50-50 split with the UK. Mossadegh’s uncompromising
position (which could be a risky model for other oil-rich countries), as well as the attraction
to oil, led the US’s intelligence unit, the CIA, to join the UK’s intelligence unit, the M16, to
plan an overthrow of Mossadegh via intelligence operations and bribing. 19 August 1953,
Mossadegh was arrested. 21 August 1953, the Shah was in power. The Shah ruled ruthlessly
during the next 25 years, but the Iranian economy flourished again because oil revenues
went up. In reaction to the Shah’s plan to westernize the country, an Islamic backlash
formed.

b) 1979 Iranian revolution

The 1979 Iranian revolution gave birth to the current regime. The revolution was
nationalistic, populist and Islamic-inspired, as a backlash to the Westernization as well as
unequal distribution of wealth under the Shah. There was also a shock economic crisis as a
result of the boom of the 1970s, which was followed by very high inflation and economic
pressure due to wrong economic initiatives the Shah had launched. 1979 brought about a
hostage crisis where the Ayatollah Khomeini’s people stormed the US Embassy to capture
the presumed American spies in the eyes of the Iranians. This crisis was resolved in January
1981, due to the Shah dying and Saddam Hussein deciding to invade Iran, known as the Iran-
Iraq war.

c) the post Iranian revolution context since the 1980s.

Since the 1980s, negotiations on the nuclear topic have always been complicated. The
Western countries among which the P5+1, have always ever since regarded Iran as a “rogue
state”, if not a terrorist state, supporting terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah (Lebanon)
and Hamas (Occupied Palestinian Territories), as well as responsible for numerous terrorist
attacks in the West. Moreover, Iran notoriously disrespected human rights on its territory.
On the negotiations itself, some parameters were uncertain. While Iranians were reputed
for being untrustworthy, Westerners were aware that they could use secret underground
facilities to carry out nuclear military programmes. In fact, Iran showed reluctance to give
access to its nuclear facilities to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts.
American negotiators, as for them, faced strong opposition of most of the Republicans and
several Democrats. The fear of Iran, and the lobby of Israelis called for more extreme
solutions. Saudi Arabia also lobbied towards their American ally against a deal. Iran was an
old enemy in the region and a deal with the US would strengthen them, as they were
seeking the exact same thing Saudi Arabia was: becoming the dominant Middle East power.
Both countries had fought proxy wars and fuelled diplomatic crises during negotiations (e.g
Bahrain). Saudi Arabia also used the oil industry to leverage the US, lowering the prices as
economic pressure.
Chinese and Russian negotiators sat along with European and US negotiators. Both played a
very ambiguous role. Russia for instance, was very critical of Westerners, and had built a
long lasting relationship with Iran. Facing economic sanctions itself following Crimea's
annexation, Russia found a natural ally in Iran.