A PROJECT ON PROBABILITY

A fullfillment of study of mathematics grade -12

Submitted by;
Student’s Name: Shubham Kumar yadav Submitted to:
Grade : XII (12), (2020-2022nd AD Batch) Bijay subedi sir
Section : M(5) Department of Mathematics
KMSS, Bagbazar,Kathmandu
Registration no :783271011691
Faculty : Science(Biology) Date of submission:2078-12-19
 Letter of Approval
The project work reported to Kathmandu Model Secondary School ,
Mathematics Department by Shubham kuamr Yadav and my team ,entitled
“Probability”
has been approved for the final evaluation .

…………………………………
Bijay subedi
Lecturer,KMC
 Acknowledgement
-we feel immense pleasure in acknowledging our ineptness and heartfelt sense of gratitude to our
respected teacher “Mr.Bijay subedi sir” sir, Department of Mathematics, Kathmandu Model college “for
his sustained encouragement, regular guidance, inspiration, valuable suggestion and great support
throughout our period.

we would like to thank and express our sincere appreciation to our friends, family members like our
elder brother and sister who helped us to complete this project. It definitely helps us as well as our
companion to learn and do something new which is more scientific and ideal way of learning about the
specific subject matter. We express the report in our own words with the aim so that others can
understand it clearly in very simple words.

Thank you all!!

-shubham Kumar yadav
-sushan pokhrel
-subina shrestha
-yashwant chaurisaya
-sneha thapa
-sampada nandani shrestha
- Silviya wagle
 Table of contents
Probability
Letter of Approval
Acknowledgement
1.Introduction
-Definition
-Formulae
2.History
3.Binomial Distribution
i)mean of binomial distribution
ii) Variance of Binomial Distribution
iii)Criteria for Binomial Distribution
4.Application of Binomial Distribution
 Introduction
The branch of mathematics concerned with the analysis of
random phenomena concerning numerical descriptions of how
likely an event is to occur is called probability. Simple example
of probability can be taken as you know there's a one in two
chance of tossing heads on coin, so the probability is 50%.

The formula for probability states that the possibility of an

event happening, or P(E), equals the ratio of the number of
favorable outcomes to the number of total outcomes.
Mathematically, it looks like this:
P(E) = favorable outcomes/total outcomes
 History of probability

The modern mathematical theory of probability has its roots in

attempts to analyze games of chance by Gerolamo Cardano in the
sixteenth century, and by Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal in the
seventeenth century. Initially, probability theory mainly considered
discrete events, and its methods were mainly combinatorial.
Eventually, analytical considerations compelled the incorporation
of continuous variables into the theory.
This culminated in modern probability theory, on foundations laid
by Andrey Nikolaevich Kolmogorov. This became the mostly
undisputed axiomatic basis for modern probability theory.
Example 1:
A coin is thrown 3 times .what is the probability that atleast one
head is obtained?
Solution:
Sample space = [HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT, HTT, TTT]
Total number of ways = 2 × 2 × 2 = 8. Fav. Cases = 7
P (A) = 7/8
OR
P (of getting at least one head) = 1 – P (no head)⇒ 1 – (1/8) =
7/8
 Probability distribution and formula
• A probability distribution is a statistical function that describes all the
possible values and likelihoods that a random variable can take within a
given range. This range will be bounded between the minimum and
maximum possible values, but precisely where the possible value is likely to
be plotted on the probability distribution depends on a number of factors.
These factors include the distribution's mean (average), standard
deviation, skewness, and kurtosis.
EXAMPLE
A fair coin is tossed twice. Let X be the number of heads that are observed.
Construct the probability distribution of X.
Find the probability that at least one head is observed.
Solution:
The possible values that X can take are 0, 1, and 2. Each of these numbers corresponds
to an event in the sample space S={hh,ht,th,tt} of equally likely outcomes for this
experiment: X = 0 to {tt}, X = 1 to {ht,th}, and X = 2 to {hh}. The probability of each of
these events, hence of the corresponding value of X, can be found simply by counting,
to give,

X 0 1 2
P(X) 0.25 0.50 0.25

This table is the probability distribution of X.

“At least one head” is the event X ≥ 1, which is the union of the mutually exclusive
events X = 1 and X = 2. Thus

P(X≥1)=P(1)+P(2)=0.50+0.25=0.75
 Binomial distribution and formula
The binomial distribution is a probability distribution that summarizes
the likelihood that a value will take one of two independent values
under a given set of parameters or assumptions.

Formula
The formula for binomial distribution is:
P(x: n,p) = nCx px (q)n-x

Where,

n = the number of experiments

x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, …
p = Probability of success in a single experiment
q = Probability of failure in a single experiment (= 1 – p)
Formula for the Mean and Variance of the
Binomial Distribution

The mean and variance of the binomial

distribution are:
Mean = np
Variance = npq
Where p is the probability of success, q is the
probability of failure, n = number of trials.
Criteria for binomial distribution
1. Fixed trials - The process under investigation must have a fixed number
of trials that cannot be altered in the course of the analysis. During the
analysis, each trial must be performed in a uniform manner, although each
trial may yield a different outcome.

2. Independent trials- The other condition of a binomial probability is

that the trials are independent of each other. In simple terms, the outcome of
one trial should not affect the outcome of the subsequent trials.

3. Fixed probability of success- In a binomial distribution, the

probability of getting a success must remain the same for the trials we are
investigating. For example, when tossing a coin, the probability of flipping a
coin is ½ or 0.5 for every trial we conduct, since there are only two possible
outcomes.

4. Two mutually exclusive outcomes- In binomial probability,

there are only two mutually exclusive outcomes, i.e., success or failure. While
success is generally a positive term, it can be used to mean that the outcome of
the trial agrees with what you have defined as a success, whether it is a positive
or negative outcome.
 Applications of Binomial distribution

The binomial distribution has its applications in experiments in

probability subject to certain constraints. These are:

1. There is a fixed number of trials - for example toss a coin 20

times.
2. The outcomes are independent and there are just two possible
outcomes-in the example I will use, these are head and tail.
3. The probability of a head plus the probability of a tail must
equal 1.
Example 1: If a coin is tossed 5 times, using binomial distribution find the probability of:
(a)Exactly 2 heads
(b) At least 4 heads.
Solution:
(a) The repeated tossing of the coin is an example of a Bernoulli trial. According to
the problem:
Number of trials: n=5
Probability of head: p= 1/2 and hence the probability of tail, q =1/2
For exactly two heads x=2
Using binomial distribution formula,
P(x=2) = 5C2 p2 q5-2 = 5! / 2! 3! × (½)2× (½)3
P(x=2) = 5/16
(b) For at least four heads,
x ≥ 4, P(x ≥ 4) = P(x = 4) + P(x=5)
Hence, using binomial distribution formula,
P(x = 4) = 5C4 p4 q5-4 = 5!/4! 1! × (½)4× (½)1 = 5/32
P(x = 5) = 5C5 p5 q5-5 = (½)5 = 1/32
Example 2: For the same question given above, find the probability of:
a) Getting at least 2 heads

Solution:
P (at most 2 heads) = P(X ≤ 2) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1)
P(X = 0) = (½)5 = 1/32
P(X=1) = 5C1 (½)5.= 5/32

Therefore,

P(X ≤ 2) = 1/32 + 5/32 = 3/16

 Bibliography

1.Basic Mathematics ,Sukunda Publication ,Bhanu Chandra Bajracharya,Dhup

Ratna Bajracharya and others
2.Foundation of Mathematics,Asmita Publication,Dr.Durga Jung Kc,Dr. Santosh
Ghimire and others
3.Principle of Mathematics,Saraswati Prakasan,Purushottam Parajuli,Dhan
Bahadur Thapa and others
4 Wikipedia.com