Forecasting

Assignment -01

Simple Linear Regression Method

x Year Attendance x2 xy
1 1989 53353 1 53353 A
2 1990 61417 4 122834 Year Attendance
3 1991 63853 9 191559 1989 53353
4 1992 63034 16 252136 1990 61417
5 1993 95504 25 477520 1991 63853
6 1994 133762 36 802572 1992 63034
7 1995 108363 49 758541 1993 95504
8 1996 126853 64 1014824 1994 133762
9 1997 125363 81 1128267 1995 108363
10 1998 117874 100 1178740 1996 126853
55 949376 385 59803466 1997 125363
SX SY SX2 SXY 1998 117874
1999 123363
Linear regression y=a+bx 2000
n 10 b 9197.3
x 11 a 44352.4
y 145523

x Year Attendance x2 xy
1 1989 53353 1 53353 A
2 1990 61417 4 122834 Year Attendance
3 1991 63853 9 191559 1989 53353
4 1992 63034 16 252136 1990 61417
5 1993 95504 25 477520 1991 63853
6 1994 133762 36 802572 1992 63034
7 1995 108363 49 758541 1993 95504
8 1996 126853 64 1014824 1994 133762
9 1997 125363 81 1128267 1995 108363
10 1998 117874 100 1178740 1996 126853
11 1999 145523 121 1600750.8 1997 125363
66 1094899 506 7581096.8 1998 117874
1999 121867
Linear regression y=a+bx 2000
n 11 b 9197.3
x 12 a 44352.4

y 154720
A
Year Attendance
1 1989 53,353
2 1990 61417
3 1991 63853
4 1992 63034
5 1993 95504
6 1994 133762
7 1995 108363
8 1996 126853
9 1997 125363
10 1998 117874
11 1999
12 2000

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

MA 1 2
WMA 1 2
Linear
Regression -1 -2 -3 -4 -3.43

Q.1 The president of the akron zoo has asked you to calculate the expected gate admittance figures and
1999 & 2000.Would simple linear Regression analysis be the appropriate fo

1. Moving average and Weighted moving average techniques are rejected

Conclusion Simple Linear regression analysis technique trend analysis is the best meth
admittance figures and revenues for both years , since the value of tracking signal is with

Given that 35% of all the visitors are the adults , 50% children while 15% is of group admit
the revenue for 1999 & 2000 are:

Total Total
attendance in People by
Group 1999 Group% group
Adult 145522.8 0.35 50932.98
Children 145522.8 0.5 72761.42
Group 145522.8 0.15 21828.42
 Total 1 145522.8

Total revenue by group of attended people (1999)

Total
Number of Revenue
Group People Price$ by group 160000
Adult 50932.98 4 203731.92
140000
Children 72761.4 2.5 181903.5
Group 21828.42 1.5 32742.63 120000

Total 1 418378.05 100000

aTTENDANCE
Total Attendance(2000) 80000

Total Total 60000

Attendance in People by
40000
Group 1999 Group% group
Adult 154720.11 0.35 51452.04 20000
Children 154720.11 0.5 77360.05
0
Group 154720.11 0.15 23208.02 1988 1
Total 1 154720.11

Total revenue by group of attended people (2000)

Total
Number of Revenue
Group People Price$ by group
Adult 54152.04 4 216608.15
Children 77360.05 2.5 193400.14
Group 23208.02 1.5 34812.02
Total 1 444820.31

Q.2) Besides admission price , what other factors that influence annual attendance sho

Response: There are numerous factors that may have influence annual attendance , factors that adm
number of active exhibits
the weather
advertising campaigns- public service advertising
new attractions at the zoo
promotional events
new and exotic animals