UNIT THREE

JOB ANALYSIS & HR PLANNING

3.1. Meaning and definition of job analysis

Job analysis is the process of determining and reporting pertinent information relating to the
nature a specific job. It is the determination of the tasks which comprise the job and of the skills,
knowledge, abilities and responsibilities of the jobholder for successful job performance. It is the
process of determining the duties and skill requirements of a job and the kind of person who
should be hired for it. It is the process of defining a job in terms of tasks or behaviors. It is
specifying the education, training and responsibilities needed to perform the job.

Generally, job analysis is the systematic process of determining a job's duties and
responsibilities, its relation to other jobs, skills, abilities and knowledge required and working
conditions under which it is performed.

Job analysis is performed on the following three occasions:

 It is done, when the organization is newly formed.

 It is done, When new jobs are created in the organization
 It is done, When jobs are changed (change in nature of jobs), because of new
technologies, working methods, procedures or systems.
Job analysis, involves the formal study of jobs, which provide answer to question such as:

 Which tasks are grouped together and are considered as a job?

 What machines and special equipment must be used?
 What knowledge, skills, and abilities does the jobholder need to perform the job?
 Under what working conditions the job is performed?
 What are the performance expectations for the job?
 With whom must the jobholder interact?

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Job analysis provides the following information about the job:

 Purpose of the job: why the job exists, what the jobholder is expected to contribute and
what the job seeks to contribute.
 Job content: tasks and duties. The nature and scope of the job in terms of the tasks to be
performed and duties to be carried out, i.e., about the process of converting inputs
(knowledge, skill and ability) into outputs (products and services).
 Job context: This specifies working conditions i.e. physical working conditions, health
and safety consideration, work schedule, information about incentives and motivations,
the number of people interacting and their interaction.
 Organizational factors: The reporting relationship of a jobholder i.e. to whom he or she
reports.
 Human or work requirement: Information regarding human requirements of the job,
such as job-related knowledge or skills (education, training, work experience etc.) and
required personal attributes (aptitude, physical attitudes, personality, interests, etc.)
 Performance standard: It provides information about expected performance levels (in
terms of quantity, quality, or speed for each job duty) by which an employee will be
evaluated. This information is used to know the degree to which the job is being
performed satisfactorily.
 Machines, equipment, tools and work aids. Included here would be information
regarding products made, raw materials processed, knowledge dealt with or applied (such
as finance or law), and services rendered (such as counseling or repairing).

1.2. Steps in job analysis

There are about six steps that one can follow during job analysis. These include:

1. Identify the use to which the information will be put, since this determines the types
of data needed and the techniques to be used to collect the data.
2. Review relevant background information such as organizational charts, process
charts and any existing job descriptions. Organizational charts show how the job under
study relates to other jobs and where it fits in the overall organization.

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 The chart should identify the title of each position and, by means of its interconnecting
lines, show who reports to whom and with who the job incumbent is expected to
communicate. A process chart provides a more detailed understanding of the work flow
than is obtainable from the organization chart alone. In its simplest form, a process chart
shows the flow of inputs to and outputs from the job under study. The existing job
description, if there is one, can provide a starting point for building the revised job
description.
3. Select representative positions to be analyzed: This is done when many similar jobs are
to be analyzed because; it is very costly and too time-consuming to analyze every single
job in an organization.
4. Collect relevant data and analyze the job by using acceptable techniques: Jobs are
actually analyzed by collecting data on job activities, required employee behaviors,
working conditions, and human traits and abilities needed to perform the job. Several
techniques are utilized for collecting data, such as interviews, observation,
questionnaires, etc. These techniques are discussed in detail in the next section.
5. Review the information with the participant: Information on job analysis should be
verified with the worker performing the job and with his/her immediate supervisor. This
will help to confirm that the information is factually correct and complete. This review
step can also help gain the employee’s acceptance of the job analysis data and
conclusions by giving that person a chance to review and modify the analyst’s description
of his/her job activities.
6. Develop a job description and job specification. A job description and a job
specification are usually two concrete products of the job analysis. Job description is a
written statement that describes the activities and responsibilities of the job, as well as
important features of the job such as working conditions and safety hazards.
Job specification is one product of job analysis which summarizes the personal traits,
knowledge, abilities, and skills required for getting the job done.

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 a. Job Description(What the job entails)

Job description is the immediate product of job analysis. It is a document that provides information
regarding the task, duties, responsibilities, reporting relationships, working conditions and supervisory
responsibilities of the job. In short, it concentrates on the job and lists what a jobholder actually does,
how he/she does it, and under what conditions the job is performed. Job description is a pertinent
picture of the organizational relationship, responsibilities and specific duties that constitute a given
position.

The following are items frequently included in the job description:

 Major duties performed

 percentage of time devoted to each duty
 performance standards to be achieved
 working conditions and possible hazards
 number of employees performing the job and to whom they report
 the machines, tools and equipments used on the job

The Contents of Job Description are:

 Job Identification: It contains several types of information, such as job title, job status,
job location, immediate supervisor’s title, job grade and salary and/ or pay scale. Job title
specifies the title of the job, such as operation supervisor, sales manager, or inventory
control clerk. It is desirable that the job title be short, definite and suggestive of the nature
of the job. The desirable qualities of jobholder should also be clear from the title so that
every job should be distinguished from one another. Job status permits quick
identification of the exempt from overtime or the nonexempt from overtime status of the
job. Job locations show the location of the job in terms of its plant/division and
department/section. The immediate supervisor’s title is shown in the identification
section. Information regarding the job’s salary and/or pay scale, and the job grade/level
are also indicated.
 Job Summary: The job summary should describe the general structure of the job, listing
only its major functions or activities. It would clear the nature of the job. Try to avoid
including in job summary a general statement like” perform other assignments as
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 required.” Including such a statement can give supervisors more flexibility in assigning
duties.
 Relationships: The relationship statement shows the jobholder’s relationships with
others inside and outside the organization.
 Duties and Responsibilities: This section presents a detailed list of the job’s actual
duties and responsibilities to be performed.
 Authority: This section should specify the limits of the jobholder’s authority, including
his/her decision-making authority, direct supervision of other personnel.
 Standard of Performance: Some job descriptions also contain a standard of
performance section. This section states the standards the employee is expected to
achieve the main duties and responsibilities described in his/her job description.
 Machines, tools and materials: The machines, tools, equipment and materials required
in the performance of each job should also be included in job description.
 Working conditions and Physical Environment: The job description will also list the
general working conditions involved on the job. These might include things like noise
level, hazardous conditions, or heat

JOB DESCRIPTION GUIDELINES

The following guidelines are useful for writing up job descriptions:

 Be clear. The job description should portray the work of the position so well that the
duties and responsibilities to be performed by the jobholder are clear.
 Indicate scope of authority. In defining the position, be sure to indicate the scope and
nature of the work. Indicate all important relationships.
 Be specific. Select the most specific words to show (1) the kind of work, (2) the degree of
complexity, (3) the extent of the worker’s responsibility for each phase of the work, and
(4) the degree and type of accountability. Generally, positions at the lower levels of the
organization have the most detailed duties or tasks, while higher-level positions deal with
broader aspects.
 Recheck. To check whether the job description fulfills the basic requirements, ask
yourself, “Will a new employee understand the job if he/she reads the job description?”

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 b. JOB SPECIFICATION(What kind of people to hire for the job)

Job specification is a document containing the minimum acceptable educational and experience
qualifications, and competencies that a jobholder should possess in order to perform a particular
job successfully. It is a list of human requirements, such as required education, skills, personality
traits, experience and physical attributes. The characteristics explained in a job specification
indicate that those employees who possess such skills, knowledge and ability are likely to
perform a job effectively compared to those who do not have these qualifications.

Job specification should include:

 Physical characteristics, such as height, weight, sight, physical structure, Health, etc.
 Psychological characteristics (decision making ability, analytical view, mental abilities).
 Personal characteristics, such as behavior, enthusiasm, leadership qualities, etc.
 Qualification and experience, such as academic qualification, experience, training etc.

Job Analysis

Job Description
Job specification
(A written description of a job)
(A written statement of the necessary qualification of the jo
Job titles and location
Education
Duties to be performed
experience
Characteristics of the job
Training
organizational relationship
Mental ability
Relation to other jobs
Physical efforts & skills
Machines, tools and materials
Decision making abilities
working conditions

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 3.3. Methods of collecting job analysis information
There are various techniques that can be used to collect data on duties, responsibilities and
activities of a job as well as the essential knowledge, skills, and abilities that a job demands. In
practice, job analysis information can be gathered by one or the combination of the following
methods.

Given the requirements of each of these methods, it is inevitable that they will differ in terms of
their cost, ease of use, sensitivity, and sophistication. The job analysts are thus force into a ‘trade
off’ in deciding which of the techniques (of combination of techniques) to employ. For instance,
costs are a potentially important feature in terms of the time, effort, and money invested. The
ability of the method to elicit the required information (sophistication) and their accuracy, and
the willingness of the staff to participate (sensitivity) are taken into consideration during the
selection of the techniques.

i) OBSERVATION: Using the observation method, a job analyst watches employees

directly on the job and takes notes to describe the tasks and duties performed. This
technique is regarded as one of the more accurate ways of obtaining job information
and it allows an analyst to detect some required skills (e.g. manual dexterity,
computer usage) and aptitudes (e.g. attention to detail, concern for the end user and
safety awareness). Direct observation is especially useful for the jobs that are mainly
of observable physical activities. These kinds of jobs are usually standardized and are
relatively simple to observe and understand what the job entails. Examples of such
job include janitors, assembly-line workers, accounting clerks, etc. However,
observation is usually not appropriate when the job entails a lot of immeasurable
mental activity (lawyer, design engineer). Again, dependent on the period of
observation, it may not capture the myriad of tasks involved in some jobs (e.g.
firefighters, ambulance personnel, police officers etc.). In consequence, direct
observation is often used in conjunction with interviewing in order to provide a
supplementary source of information.

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 Advantage

 It minimizes the likelihood of incumbents biasing the data.

 It provides detail information about time, frequency, complexity, workflows,
production effectiveness, work conditions, materials and equipment.
 Provides firsthand information.
Disadvantage

 Not all jobs are observable.

 Employees' reactivity: observation may change the natural behavior of workers.
 It is not compatible to analyze jobs with short and repetitive cycles
 It is not compatible to analyze jobs having complex mental activity( e.g. Lawyers,
Design Engineers, Lecturers)

ii) INTERVIEW: Interview is one of the most widely used method for determining the
duties and responsibilities of a job. It is gathering information talking with employees
that perform each job. There are three types of interview methods which are used to
collect job analysis data:
a) Individual Interview: Interviewing each employee or jobholder.
b) Group Interview Method: Interviewing a group of employees having the
same job
c) Supervisor Interviews: Interviewing one or more supervisors who are
thoroughly knowledgeable about the job being analyzed.
Advantage

 It is very flexible and can provide depth information.

 Interview method allows the worker being interviewed to report activities and behaviors
that might not otherwise be available from organizational chart.
 It provides an opportunity to explain the need for and functions of the job analysis.
 It allows interviewee (jobholders/ supervisors) to express their views and work related
issues that may not have been noticed by management.

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 Disadvantage

 Employees may tend to exaggerate certain responsibility with the expectation that
information gathered may have an impact on their pay.
 It is time consuming to schedule the interview and to conduct it.
 The results are not easy to analyze.

iii) QUESTIONNAIRE: It is a written serious of questions. Questionnaire method

allows employees to fill out forms in which they describe their job-related duties and
responsibilities. The questionnaires usually contain a combination of closed and open
ended questions. Close-ended questions contain specific questions about the job, job
requirement or equipment, while open-ended questions required responding by
respondents in their own way. Questionnaires are usually filled by a jobholder and
reviewed by the immediate supervisor. For existing jobs, the jobholder completes the
questionnaire, has it checked by the immediate supervisor, and returns to the job
analyst. If the job being analyzed is new, the questionnaire is normally sent to
manager who will supervise the employee in the new job. If the job being analyzed is
vacant but duplicated in another part of the organization, the questionnaire is
completed by the incumbent in the duplicate job. It is the method widely used in job
analysis and the most efficient, fast and standardized data gathering methods from
large number of employees.
Advantage

 It is a quick and efficient way of gathering information from large number of employees.
 It is less costly than interview method.
 It is easy to analyze.
Disadvantage

 Developing questionnaires and testing it (make sure that employees can understand the
questions) may be time consuming.
 Respondents may misinterpret the question and provide the wrong information.
 Employees have different perception and literacy level, so their interpretation and
response for the question differs.

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 iv) DAIRY/LOGS: This is self-reporting technique that involves current jobholders
recording their activities over a period of time-for example, every working hour.
Dairy /log is a daily listings made by workers of every activity in which they engage
along with the time each activity takes. This method can produce a very complete
picture of the job. Especially, when supplemented with subsequent interviews with
the worker and his/her supervisor. This method is simple and relatively cheap in
terms of finance. In terms of accuracy, the employees may not complete their log at
the required time and, as a consequence, may over-or understate some aspects of the
tasks. In some instances, they may also choose to exaggerate particular job aspects
(perhaps to emphasize their expertise or importance). This method is best employed
in analyzing comparatively stable and higher-level managerial or executive posts.
Advantage

 This method can provide a complete picture of the job especially if it is combined with
subsequent interview with the worker and supervisor.
 It provides detailed information about the job.
Disadvantage
 Jobholders might exaggerate some aspect of their jobs to make their task more important
than others

Generally, these methods are by no means mutually exclusive. No one method is superior to
others. It is advisable to use a combination of these methods in order to avoid one sided view.
Trust and confidence is an essential requirement for the process of job analysis.

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 3.4. Importance of job analysis information
Job analysis serves as the cornerstone of all human resource functions, i.e., jobs must be
analyzed before many of the other human resource functions can be performed. Thus, data
obtained from job analysis form the basis for a variety of human resource activities. These
activities include:

 Ensure Complete Assignment of Duties: The job analysis is useful for ensuring that all
the duties that have to be done are in fact assigned to particular positions.
 Human Resource Planning: Before planning the type of jobs and the kind of workers, it
is necessary to clearly determine the nature of jobs.
 Recruitment: Job analysis information is useful when searching for the right person to
fill the job. It helps recruiters to seek and find the type of people that will contribute and
be compatible to the organization. It also allows candidates to decide if they are really
interested in the job.
 Selection: Selection is basically a matter of properly matching an individual with a job.
For the process of successful selection, the job and its requirements must be clearly and
precisely known. A job analysis determines the skills, knowledge, and abilities needed to
perform a job. Once this has been done, comparisons of various candidates can be made
more objectively. Moreover, job analysis can be used to develop appropriate selection
criteria for hiring decisions.
 Orientation: Effective job orientation cannot be accomplished without a clear
understanding of the job requirements. The duties and responsibilities of a job must be
clearly defined before a new employee can be taught how to perform the job.
 Training and Development: Job analysis information serves as the basis for
determining training needs. By comparing the knowledge, skills, and abilities that
employees have (bring to the job) with those that are identified by job analysis, managers
can identify their employees’ skill gaps. So that, training programs should be designed to
fill these skill gaps and which in turn improves job performance. Therefore, job analysis
is used to design and implement training and development programs. It also allows
training programs to be tailored to actual qualifications required to perform the job.

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  Performance Appraisal: Job analysis information provides a basis for performance
appraisal and ensures that the evaluation is job related. It determines the standards against
which employee's performance will be measured. Job analysis is the mechanism to
choose appraisal criteria.
 Compensation: Job analysis information is essential for the determination of
compensation for each job. Because, through job analysis the relative worth (value) of
each job’s contributions to the organizations overall performance is determined by
identifying its level of difficulty, its duties and responsibilities, and the skills and abilities
required to perform the job. Once the worth of a job has been established relative to other
jobs, managers can easily determine fair and equitable compensation. Compensation is
usually tied to a job's required skill, education, competencies, working conditions, degree
of responsibility and so on. For instance, jobs that demand mastery of more complex
skills or that have greater levels of responsibility pay more than jobs that require only
basic skills or have low level of responsibility.
 To comply with legal requirements: Information on job contents and requirements
helps organizations to comply with government regulations and defend their actions from
legal challenges like unfairness or discrimination during HRM decision. As long as such
decisions are made for job related reasons, the organization will be in compliance to
government rules and regulations.
 Employee Health and Safety: The safety on a job depends on proper layout, standards,
equipment, and other physical conditions, what a job entails and the type of people
needed also contribute information to establish safety procedures.
 Labor Relation: for promotion, transfer and demotion job analysis provides a standard
for comparison of talent.

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 3.5. Potential problems with job analysis

Certain problems crop up while conducting job analysis. The major ones are:

1. Lack of support from top management: In most cases top management support is
missing. The top management should make it clear to all employees that their full and
honest participation is extremely important for the process. This message often not
communicated.
2. Use of single method and source of data collection: This relates to the defects in the
process of job analysis. There are many proven methods and sources of collecting data.
All too often analysts relay on only one of the methods when a combination of two
methods might provide a better data.
3. No training or motivation for participants in job analysis: This also relates to the
defects in the job analysis process. Job holders are a great source of information about the
job. But they are not trained or motivated to generate quality data for job analysis.
4. Activities may be exaggerated or distorted: Where training and preparedness do not
exist, job holders tend to submit distorted data either intentionally or inadvertently. For
example, employees are likely to speed up their work if they know they are being
watched.

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 3.6. Meaning and definition of Human resource planning

Whenever an organization is in the process of determining its human resource needs, it is

engaged in a process s we call human resource planning. Human resource planning is a
process by which an organization ensures that it has the right number and kinds of people at the
right place, at the right time, capable of effectively and efficiently completing those tasks that
will help the organization to achieve its overall strategic objectives. HR planning, then,
ultimately translates the organization’s overall goals into the number and types of workers
needed to meet those goals. Without clear cut planning and a direct linkage to the organization’s
strategic direction, estimations of an organization’s human resource needs are reduced to mere
guesswork that may well fall short of the organization actual needs.

Human Resource Planning is process that helps organizations identify their future Human
Resource needs and how those needs can be met. it is also the process of analyzing and
identifying the need for and availability of human resources, so that the organization can met its
objectives. HRP is the systematic and continuing process of analyzing an organization’s Human
Resource needs under changing conditions and developing human resource policies appropriate
to the long term effectiveness of the organization. HRP is the process of systematically
reviewing Human resource requirements to ensure that the required number of employees with
required skills is available when and where they are needed. It is the process an organization
uses to ensure that it has the right amount and the right kinds of people to deliver a particular
level of output or services in the future.
Human resource Planning focuses on the following issues:

Quantity: How many employees do we need?

Quality: Which skills, Knowledge and abilities do we need?
Space: Where do we need the employees?
Time: When do we need the employees? How long do we need them?

Therefore, Human Resource Planning involves the comparison of an organization's current

human resource (labor supply) with likely future needs (labor demand).

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 3.7. Importance of human resource planning

The long term success of any organization depends on having the right people in the right job at
the right time. Organizational objectives and strategies are meaningful only when people with the
appropriate talents, skills and desire are available to carry out those strategies. Human resource
planning aims to ensure that the organization has the number of people with the right skills
needed to meet forecast requirements.

HRP is important because it encourages employers to develop clear and explicit links between
their business and HR plans and to integrate the two more effectively. It allows for better control
over staffing costs and numbers employed, and it enables employers to make more informed
judgements about the skills and attitude mix in organizations. Human resource planning also
provides a profile of current staff in terms of age, sex, disability, etc so as to move towards being
an equal opportunity organization.

Specifically, HRP is important in order to achieve the following purposes of an organization.

a) To expand the operation of the organization

As the operation of an organization expands, more workers are required. At this time, an
assessment of the stock of the existing resources must also be performed. So, there should be a
planning whether the new responsibilities are given to the existing workforce of the organization
after getting training or for the newly recruited employees.

b) To reduce labor cost of the organization

Through human resource planning, the organization can maintain its supremacy over other
competing organizations through controlling the cost of labor by effectively utilizing the
manpower and thus reducing the labour costs.

c) To avoid disruption in operation of the organization

Through well developed human resource planning, the future needs of human resources may be
estimated and decision to recruit new employees and to train existing employees are made where
by operation of the organization will not be interrupted.

d) For effective employee development program

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No effective employee development program can be made unless it is linked with human
resource requirements of the organization. While developing the human resource talents,
abilities, careers and commitment, human resource planning should be taken into consideration.
Therefore, an effective human resource planning helps in the organization makes its human
resource development program effective.

e) To maintain good industrial relation in the organization

An effective human resource planning helps the management in developing smooth employer-
employee relationship. For instance, redundancies of workers caused by automation or other
technological changes can be estimated well in advance with an effective human resource
planning. Thus, HRP help managers consider the ways and means to avoid the anticipated
unpleasant industrial relations. The redundant workforce may be shifted to other jobs after
proper training.

3.8. Steps [procedures] in human resource planning

There are five of steps that are used in human resource planning, namely;

1. Assess Organizational Objectives and Strategies

2. Forecasting Labor Demand (Determine the Total Human Resource Requirement)
3. Forecasting Labor Sup ply
4. Determine the Net Human Resource Requirement (Gap Analysis)
5. Develop Action Plans to Manage the Outcomes of HRP Process

1) Assess Organizational Objectives and Strategies

The objectives and strategies at all levels of management within an organization are the basis for
determining human resource requirements. Therefore, the plan of the organization is used as a
basis for determining the number and type of human resources needed in the organization.

The human resource planning process begins with considering the existing organizational
objectives and strategies. The critical assessment of existing organizational objectives helps
human resource planners deduce the quantity and the kind of employees required for achieving

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of these objectives. For example, strategies like build, close or automate facilities or strategies
concerned with merging with or acquiring other organizations, entering or withdrawing from the
markets, or strategies concerned with competing on the basis of low cost or high quality services
have major implications on the requirements of human resources in terms of quantity and quality
of the workforce. Thus, the Human resource planners must first assess their organizations’
existing and future strategies and objectives.

Generally, Human Resource Planning process should be tied to the organization’s strategic goals.
It must rest on a solid foundation of information about sales forecast, market trends,
technological advancements, and major changes in processes and productivity.

2) Forecasting Labor Demand (Determine the total HR requirement)

Labor demand forecasting involves predicting the quantities and kinds of human resources the
organization will require at some future point in time to achieve its strategic objectives. Labour
demand forecasting is the process of estimating the future numbers of people required and the
likely skills and competences they will need. The basis of the forecast is the annual budget and
longer-term business plan, translated into activity levels for each function and department or
decisions on ‘downsizing’.

In a manufacturing company the sales budget would be translated into a manufacturing plan that
will give the numbers and types of products to be made in each period. From this information the
number of hours to be worked by each skill category to make the quota for each period would be
computed.

Details are required of any organization plans that would result in increased or decreased
demands for employees, for example setting up a new regional branches, creating a new sales
department, decentralizing a head office function to the regions or branches. Plans and budgets
for reducing employment costs and their implications on the future numbers of people to be
employed would also have to be considered.

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Labor demand is likely to increases when the demand for the firm’s product or services increases
but decrease as labor productivity increases (because more output can be produced with fewer
workers, usually because of the introduction of new technology), and as the demand for firm’s
product or services decreases.

Forecasting labor demand for new organizations may require the study of other similar
organizations’ strategies and objectives or plans.

HR Demand Forecasting Methods

The demand forecasting methods for estimating the numbers of people required are described below.
These methods fall into two categories:

a. Qualitative methods
b. Quantitative methods

A. Qualitative/Judgmental Methods
These forecasting methods involve the use of human judgment rather than the manipulation of
numbers/data. Qualitative techniques rely on experts’ qualitative judgments or subjective
estimates of labor demand. The major advantage of qualitative techniques is that they are flexible
enough to incorporate whatever factors or conditions the expert feels should be considered.
Moreover, qualitative techniques are not constrained by past relationships. However, a potential
drawback of these methods is that subjective judgments of experts may be less accurate or lead
to rougher estimates than those obtained through quantitative methods.

Qualitative methods for forecasting human resource needs include:

i. Managerial Judgment
ii. Delphi Technique
iii. Nominal Group Technique/Group Brainstorming
iv. Benchmarking

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 i. Managerial judgment

The most typical method of forecasting used is managerial judgment. This simply requires
managers to sit down, think about their future workloads and decide how many people they
need. It might be done on a ‘bottom-up’ basis with line managers submitting proposals for
agreement by senior management.

Alternatively, a ‘top-down’ approach can be used, in which company and departmental

forecasts are prepared by top management, possibly acting on advice from the personnel
departments. These forecasts are reviewed and agreed with departmental managers.
Perhaps the best way of using managerial judgment is to adopt both the ‘bottom-up’ and
‘top-down’ approaches.

Managerial judgment to forecast labor demand is based on several factors. Some of these factors
include:

 Demand for Product or service

 Projected labor turnover (resignation or termination )
 Quality and nature of employees in relation to changes that are needed in the organization
 Decisions to upgrade the quality of products or services or enter into new markets.
 Technological and administrative changes resulting in increased Productivity
 Financial resources availability /Budget
ii. Delphi Technique

Delphi technique is judgmental method of forecasting that uses a panel of experts to make
initially independent estimates of future demand with any underlying assumptions. An
intermediary then presents each expert’s forecast and assumptions to other members of the
panel. Each expert is then allowed to revise his/her forecast as necessary. This process
continues until some consensus emerges or until the intermediary concludes that more than
one perspective must be presented. Delphi technique minimizes interpersonal and
jurisdictional conflicts because it avoids face-to-face group discussion.

Advantages

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  Can involve key decision makers in the process.
 Can focus on what is expected or desired in the future (more futuristic).
 Not bound to the past.
Disadvantage

 Highly subjective
 Judgments may not efficiently use objective data
 Time consuming

iii) Nominal Group Technique/Group Brainstorming

The nominal group technique is similar to the Delphi method. However, a small group of experts
meets at a conference table and independently list their ideas in writing. The experts then share
their ideas with the group. As the ideas are presented, a master list of the ideas is compiled so
that everyone can refer back to them. The ideas are open to discussion and private assessments,
and ranked by member vote, so that the group reaches a judgment concerning future human
resource demand.

Advantages
 Can involve key decision makers in the process
 Can focus on what is expected or desired in the future (more futuristic)
 Not bound to the past
 Group discussions can facilitate exchange of ideas and greater acceptance of the forecasts
by participants.
Disadvantage

 Highly subjective
 Judgments may not efficiently use objective data
 Group pressure may lead to less accurate forecasts that could be obtained through
other means.

iv) Benchmarking

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Some organizations help forecast human resource needs by benchmarking other successful
organizations’ with respect to the practice of labor demand forecasting. Benchmarking involves
thoroughly examining internal practice & procedures and measuring them against the ways other
successful organizations operate. With regard to HRP, benchmarking involves learning what
other successful organizations in the industry are forecasting and how they are arriving at their
forecasts.

B. Quantitative Methods

Quantitative methods are based on the assumption that the future is an extrapolation from the
past. Although used more often, these methods have limitations. One of the limitations is most
rely on past data or previous relationships between human resource levels and other variables,
such as output or revenues. They are less appropriate for organizations which are operated in
dynamic environment and intense global competition.
Quantitative methods for forecasting human resource needs include:

a) Trend/Time series Analysis

b) Regression Analysis
 Trend analysis: examining an organization's employment trends over certain period of time
to predict future needs. It incorporates certain business factors (e.g., units produced,
revenues) and productivity ratio (e.g., employees per unit produced)

Steps in trend analysis:

1) Find the appropriate business factor that relates to the size of the workforce.
2) Plot the past data of that factor in relation to the size of the workforce.
3) Compute the productivity ratio (average output per worker per year).
4) Determine the trend.
5) Make necessary adjustments in the trend, past and future.
6) Project/forecast to the target year.

 Regression Analysis: Uses information from the past relationship between the
organization’s human resource level and some criterion (workload indicator) known to be

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 related to human resource level. It is statistical model (mathematical formula) used to relate
human resource level to several variables (e.g., output, product mix, per capita productivity).
The main drawbacks of this method are mathematical complexity, and requirement of large
sample sizes.

3) Forecasting Labor Supply

Whereas the labor demand forecast projects human resource needs of an organization, the labor
supply forecast projects human resource availability. Labor supply forecasts are typically broken
down into two categories: Internal Supply and External Supply

a) Forecasting Internal Labor Supply

Internal labor supply consists of those individuals and jobholders currently available within the
organization. Data from human resources /skills inventories are used to make internal labor
supply forecast based on current trends. These trends include not only the number and kinds of
individuals in each job, but also the flow of employees in, through, and out of the organization.

 Skills Inventory

Skills inventory is the process of developing a profile of current status of human resources. It is
aids to know the type and the numbers of employers available within the organization. Human
resource inventory is sometimes called manpower audit.

Before deciding how many outside candidates to hire, the current available human resources
should be assessed to find out if they can fill the forecasted openings in the organization. In order
to get accurate and current information about existing employees, qualification inventory should
be developed. Qualification inventory is the systematic record (manual or computerized) listing
employees’ education, career development, interests, languages, special skills, etc. It is used in
forecasting inside candidates for promotions or transfers.

 Anticipate Changes in Human Resources

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The data that are recorded through manpower inventory is the photograph of human resource
available at a single point in time. In the long run changes must be anticipated, this is because
people move out the organization (is called turnover). Human resource Managers should also try
to estimate human resource changes that are likely to occur within the planning period. Such
changes include, promotions, transfers, retirements, resignations, detains, deaths, and dismissal
within an organization.

Some of these changes like retirement, promotion and transfer can easily be estimated with
reasonable accuracy. While other changes, such as deaths, resignations, and dismissals, are much
more difficult to predict. However, forecasting such changes require analysis of past trends
(historical records) and managerial judgment.

These anticipated changes can be classified as:

 Natural Attrition: People leaving the organization for such reasons as death, disability,
illness, retirement, etc.
 Voluntary Movement: When people decide to move out of the organization either
because they are dissatisfied with working conditions, payment scale, relationships, etc.
or because they have better opportunities elsewhere.
 Involuntary Movement: This is the situation where an organization pushes employees
to go out, such as dismissal, layoffs, downsizing etc.

B.Forecasting External Labor Supply

External labor supply consists of those individuals in the labor forces who are potential recruits
of the organization (including those working for another organization). The skill levels being
sought determine the relevant labor market. The entire country (or world) may be the relevant
labor market for highly skilled jobs whereas for unskilled jobs, the relevant labor market is
usually the local community. External supply forecast measures the number and kinds of people
likely to be available from outside the organization.

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 4) Determine the Net Human Resource Requirement (Gap Analysis)
Net Human resource requirement is determined by comparing the labor demand forecasts and the
internal labor supply forecasts. The difference of the total human resource needed for an
organization and the total human resource available in the organization will result in the net
human resource requirement.

Net HR Requirement=HR demand forecast−internal HR supply forecast

If HR demand is greater than internal HR supply, the net HR requirement is positive (deficit
supply of HR, i.e., additional HR is needed).

But when HR demand is less than internal HR supply, the net HR requirement is negative
(surplus supply of HR, i.e., there are excess of HRs in an organization).

If HR demand is equal to internal HR supply, the net HR requirement is zero (in a state of
equilibrium).

5) Develop Action Plans to Manage the Outcomes of HRP Process

The result obtained from the above step will initiate action planning, i.e., developing action plans
to fulfill the needs of human resources in the organization.

i) If Net HR Requirement is Positive (HR Deficit Supply)

Net HR requirement is positive when the forecasted labor demand is in excess of the forecasted
internal labor supply. When this situation happens, HR department must design and implement
techniques to overcome the shortage of Human Resources. Which approach or approaches are
appropriate will depend on their relative costs and how long the labor shortage is expected to
last. The following methods are usually used in this case.

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 a) Recruitment and Selection
When deficit of human resource is forecasted, organizations must plan to attract candidates
(applicants) from the labor market and select the required number of employees who fits the
requirement of the job

b) Improve Retention Rates

Organizations can improve labor retention rates by decreasing the labor turnover rate.

number of employees terminated

labor Turnover Rate=
Average number employed

number of current employees

Labour Retention Rate=
number of employed

c) Training and Development

Organizations train and develop their existing employees to fill the gap of deficit supply of
employees, that is, to promote them to the next open position.

d) Overtime
Perhaps the most commonly used method of meeting deficit of employees is having permanent
employees work overtime. This benefits the organization by avoiding recruitment, selection,
training and other benefit costs. If labor demand exceeds supply by only a small amount and this
situation deemed temporary, paying overtime may be less expensive than hiring new employees.

e) Outsourcing
Outsourcing is subcontracting of various functions of an organization to other organizations.
Outsourcing may be made to avoid hiring additional employees. The other reason for
outsourcing is to allow the organization to focus on its core business activities. The major
drawback of outsourcing is the loss in some control over the employee.

ii) If Net Human Resource Requirement is Negative (HR Surplus supply)

HR surplus supply results when forecasted internal HR supply is greater than the forecasted HR
demand. When this happens, the HR department must make decision to reduce the number or
mix of current employees through two possible approaches.

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Approaches resulting in employees leaving organization
a) Downsizing: Downsizing is a reduction in the number of employees by an organization
(also known as restructuring and rightsizing). Organizations downsize their employees in
difficult times and rehire when time get better. The negative impact of downsizing is that
remaining employee trust will reduce significantly.
b) Layoffs: A condition where by employees are forced to leave the organization. In the
case of layoff the worker is no longer employed. Usually, workers with the least seniority
are laid off first.
c) Early Retirement: Situations where by organizations provide a chance to those
employees approaching their retirement periods voluntarily retire with full benefits of
retirement

Approaches that do not result in leaving organization (all of which may save jobs)
a) Attrition and Hiring Freezes: When an organization implements a restricted hiring
policy, it reduces the number of human resources by not replacing employees who leave.
In this case, new employees are hired only when the overall performance of the
organization may be affected.
b) Job Sharing: Job sharing is divides a single job between two or more workers. It is a
proportional reduction of hours of work. For example, a job that is being performed by
one person in 40 hours per week may be shared by two individuals and are paid
according to their contributions.
c) Pay Reduction: organizations apply pay reduction to reduce the number of full-time
workers. An employee whose pay is reduced usually tends to leave the organization.

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 Assess Organizational Objectives and Strategies

Forecast Demand of
Human Resources

Collect information

From external environment From inside the organization (Existing)

(Potential)

Forecast Supply of
Human resources

Match HR Demand against

HR Supply

Manage the outcomes of HR Planning process

Figure: Summary of Human Resource Planning Process

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 3.9. Factors affecting human resource planning

Planners face significant barriers while formulating HRP. The major ones are the following:

1) People argue that there are people when needed. Offer attractive packages of benefits to
them to quit when you find them in surplus. When task is so simple, why elaborate and
time-consuming planning for HR? Thus goes the argument. Surprisingly this perception
about HRP is also held by the top management.
2) HR practitioners are perceived as experts in handling personnel matters, but are not
experts in managing business.
3) HR information often is incompatible with other information used in strategy
formulation. Financial forecasting takes precedence over HRP.
4) Conflicts may exist between short-term and long-term HR needs. For example, conflict
arises between the pressure to get work done on time and on long-term needs such as
preparing people for assuming greater responsibilities.
5) Non-involvement of operating managers renders HRP ineffective. HRP is not strictly HR
department function. Successful planning needs a coordinated effort on the part of
operating managers and HR personnel.

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