BSU5335 – Unit I Session 05: Probability and Counting Data

Session 5

Probability and Counting data

Contents
Introduction, p36
5.1 Set, p37
5.2 Union and Intersection, p38
5.3 Sample space, p38
5.4 Event, p38
5.5 Mutually exclusive events, p39
5.6 Independent events, p39
5.7 Probability, p39
5.8 Additive rule of probability, p40
5.9 Multiplicative rule of probability, p42
Summary, p44
Learning Outcomes, p45

Introduction

The concept of probability is fundamental in understanding the theory of

statistics. There are many real life applications, in which we are interested in
learning about the probability of an event to occur. For instance, consider a
surgical theatre that has two oxygen supply units. The doctor may be
interested in finding out the probability that at least one of the oxygen
supply unit will work without failure in the next 12 hours, so that the
surgery can be continued without risk. A probability may be expressed as a
percentage, taking values between 0% and 100%. For example, suppose
30% of people in a population are diabetics. If we select a person randomly
the chance or probability that the selected person is a non-diabetic is 70%.

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BSU5335 – Unit I Session 05: Probability and Counting Data

Many statistical values that we use in health sciences such as prevalence

rates, specificity, sensitivity etc., are all probabilities or derived from
probabilities. There are some basic concepts in set theory described below
that are important in learning probability theory.

5.1 Set
A set is considered as a collection of objects which satisfy a given list of
rules or collections. Objects of a set are called elements or members of that
set. If the number of elements in a set is finite then the set is called as a
finite set and if the number of elements in a set is infinite then the set is
called an infinite set. Sets are conventionally denoted by capital letters in the
English alphabet as A, B, C, etc. Two sets A and B are said to be equal if and
only if both have the same members. In this case we write A=B
SupposeA={all female patients who treated for scabies at teaching hospital,
Karapitiya during the year 2014}
Then A is a finite set.
If something ‘is’ and ‘is not’ an element of a particular set then this is
symbolized by respectively.

Let A be a set, a A meansa belongs toA, b A means b does not belongs to

A.
If each and every member of a set A is also a member of a set B, then A is
said to be a sub set of a B, written as

Suppose B={all patients who treated for scabies at teaching hospital,

Karapitiya during the year 2014} then,

If A is a sub set of B, but not equal to B, then A is called a proper sub set of
B, written as (A is a proper sub set of B)

B
AB
A is a proper sub set of B

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BSU5335 – Unit I Session 05: Probability and Counting Data

5.2 Union and Intersection

The union of A and B, denoted by , is the set of all events (elements)
which are members of the either A or B.

The intersection of A and B, denoted by , is the set of all events

(elements) which are members of the both A and B.

5.3 Sample Space

The set of all possible outcome of an experiment is defined as the sample
space of that experiment. Ω, sometimes S, is used to denote a sample space.
If we are investigating the blood type of all children, then the sample space
may result in a set of the form {A, B, AB, O}

5.4 Event
Any sub set of a sample space associated with an experiment is called an
event of that experiment. For example, we can group the outcome of a
surgery (an experiment) into events such as ‘fully recovered’, ‘partially
recovered’ and ‘death.’

Simple event

If an event cannot be decomposed further into two or more events then that
event is said to be a simple event.
Note: the collection of all possible simple events of an experiment is the
sample space.

Compound event

An event is said to be a compounded event if it consists of two or more

simple events.

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BSU5335 – Unit I Session 05: Probability and Counting Data

Null event

The event corresponding to the empty set is called the null event and is
usually denoted by Ф

5.5 Mutually exclusive events

Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if the occurrence of the two
events cannot happen at the same time.In set terminology the two events A
and B are said to be mutually exclusive if A∩B= Ф
The two events “your blood group is A” and “your blood group is O” are
mutually exclusive events because the two events cannot happen together.

5.6Independent events
Two events, A and B, are said to be independent if the occurrence of event
A does not affect the occurrence of event B.

Thus, two events are independent if and only if P(A B)= P(A).P(B)

For example, suppose two people are selected simultaneously and at random
from a group of patients. Let A be the event that one of the people has a
visual problem and B be the event that the other person has a visual problem.
Since we have chosen people at random, whether one of them has visual
problem has no effect on the likelihood that the other person has a visual
problem. Therefore, A and B are independent events.

5.7 Probability
Classical definition of probability
When a sample space is made up of a finite number of equally likely
outcomes, the probability of an event is defined as the number of elements
defining the event divided by the number of elements in the sample space.
Let n(A) denote the number of elements in A and n(Ω) denote the number
of elements in the sample space Ω. Then the probability of A as

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BSU5335 – Unit I Session 05: Probability and Counting Data

P (A) = n (A) / n(Ω)

Consider selecting a child from a sample of 6 children. Let A be the event
that the child is having dental caries. Suppose two children, the 2nd and the
4th are having dental caries. Then A = {2nd child, 4th child} and Ω={1st child,
2nd child, 3rd child, 4th child, 5th child and 6th child} therefore, the probability
of A is given by

Frequency Probability
Suppose an experiment is performed under the same conditions in n times.
Out of these n times, an event A is occurred nA times

Then the ratio is defined as the relative frequency of A

P(A), the probability of happening the event A is defined as

Note: the main drawback of this definition is that the experiment should be
performed infinitely many times, which is practically impossible.

5.8 Additive rule of probability

The addition rule is a result used to determine the probability that event A
occurs or event B occurs or both occur.The result is often written as follows,
using set notation,

Where: P (A) = probability that event A occurs

P (B) = probability that event B occurs

= probability that event A or event B occurs

= probability that event A and event B both occur

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BSU5335 – Unit I Session 05: Probability and Counting Data

For mutually exclusive events, that is events which cannot occur together:
=0

The addition rule therefore reduces to = P (A) + P (B)

For independent events,that is events which have no influence on each

other:

The addition rule therefore reduces to

Suppose the occurrence of anemia has no influence on the development of

anxiety (thus the two events are independent of each other). Suppose the
probability of having anemia is 0.4 and the probability of having anxiety is
0.8 among children in Southern Sri Lanka. What is the probability of having
either anemia or anxiety or both if we select a child randomly?

Prob (anemia or anxiety or both) = Prob (Anemia) + Prob (Anxiety) – Prob

(both)
Prob (both) = 0.4 x 0.8 = 0.32 (Since the two events are independent of each
other)
Thus, Prob (anemia or anxiety or both) = 0.4 + 0.8 - 0.32 = 0.88

Conditional Probability

A and B are two events of an event space corresponding to a sample

space associated with a random experiment E

The conditional probability of B given that A is true denoted by

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BSU5335 – Unit I Session 05: Probability and Counting Data

Here we wish to determine the probability that event B will occur

“conditions on” the assumption that the other event A has occurred already.
Note

If A and B are independent events then

5.9 Multiplicative rule of probability

The multiplication rule is a result used to determine the probability that two
events, A and B, both occur. The multiplication rule follows from the
definition of conditional probability.

Rule of multiplication: If events A and B come from the same sample

space, the probability that both A and B occur is equal to the probability that
event A occurs times the probability that B occurs, given that A has
occurred.

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) * P(B|A)

Where: P(A) = probability that event A occurs

= probability that event A and event B both occur

P(B | A) = the conditional probability that event B occurs given that
event A has occurred already

Consider the following example of dependent events, events which have

influence on one another.

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BSU5335 – Unit I Session 05: Probability and Counting Data

Example: A microbiology teacher gave his class two tests, 25% of the class
passed both tests and 42% of the class passed the first test. What percent of
those who passed the first test also passed the second test?

This problem describes a conditional probability. We will have to find the

probability that the second test was passed given that the first test was
passed.

P(First and Second) 0.25

P(Second|First) = = = 0.60 = 60%
P(First) 0.42

For independent events that is events which have no influence on one

another, the rule simplifies to:

That is, the probability of the joint events A and B is equal to the product of
the individual probabilities for the two events.

Example: It is found that approximately 10% of men have a type of color

blindness that prevents them from distinguishing between red and green. If 3
men are selected at random, find the probability that all of them will have
this type of red-green color blindness

C - red-green color blindness

P (C and C and C) = P(C). P(C). P(C) = 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 = 0.001

So the probability that all of them will have this type of red-green color
blindness is 0.01%

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BSU5335 – Unit I Session 05: Probability and Counting Data

Activity 5.1

All human blood can be one of A, B, O, or AB types. The actual distribution varies
slightly among different groups of people. For a randomly chosen person from Sri-
Lanka the followings are the approximate probabilities:

Blood type O A B AB
Probability .45 .40 .11 .04

Consider an accident victim with type B blood. She can only receive a transfusion from
a person with type B or type O blood. What is the probability that a randomly chosen
person will be a suitable donor?

Summary
• Most of the statistical values use in health sciences are all
probabilities or derived from probabilities.

• A set is considered as a collection of objects which satisfy a given

list of rules or collections and objects of a set are called elements or
members of that set.

• Any sub set of a sample space associated with an experiment is

called an event of that experiment and sets are categorized as simple
event, compound event and null event.

• Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if the occurrence of the

two events cannot happen at the same time and two events are
independent both events can be occur at the same time without
interference of other.

• Probability of an event is defined as the number of elements defining

the event divided by the number of elements in the sample space.

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BSU5335 – Unit I Session 05: Probability and Counting Data

Learning Outcomes

At the end of the lesson you should be able to,

• Describe the basic notions of probability.

• Explain and use of appropriate rules of probability.
• Appreciate the significance of probability theory in applied health
statistics.

Review Questions

A survey indicated that out of 250 patients interviewed, 107 preferred Panadol and 83
preferred Disprin, and 52 preferred both Panadol and Disprin.
a) Compute the probability that a randomly selected patient would prefer at least
one of the tablets Panadol or Disprin
b) What is the probability that a randomly selected patient does not prefer any of
the tablets Panadol or Disprin?

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