Biostatistics (Biol5001)

The Concept of Elementary Probability

Instructor: Tatek Getachew(PhD)

Biol5001
Introduction
Probability theory is the foundation up on which the logic of
inference is built.
It enables us to cope up with uncertainties.
Definition
Probability of a given event is the measure of the likelihood or
chance of occurrence of an event.
It is expressed by a value between 0 and 1.
Definition of Some Probability Terms
a. Random Experiment:- is a statistical process which can be
repeated and in any single trial of which outcome is unpredictable.
b. Outcome:- The result of an experiment are called outcomes.
c. Sample space:- is a set of all possible outcomes of an
experiment.
d. An event:- is the subset of the sample space.
It is a statement about one or more out comes of an experiment.
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Eg.

No Experiment Sample space Event

1) Toss a coin and observe S={H, T} A={H}
the upper face
2) Toss a die S={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} A={x} x is even
3) Ask five couples where S={(E, E), (E, N), A={One of them
they are employed or not (N, E), (N, N)} is employed}

Note If the sample space has n elements, then it has n subsets.

e. Complement of an event:- The complement of an event A,
denoted by A’ or Ac or à is the set of all elements of the sample
space which do not belong to A.
Eg. consider the previous example
1) A’={T} 2) A’= {1, 3, 5} 3) A’= {(N, N)}
f. Elementary or simple events:- an event consisting of only one
outcome is called simple event.
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g. Union of events:- the union of two events A and B is the set of
all outcomes that belong to A or B, or both A and B and is
denoted by AUB
h. Intersection of events:- the intersection of two events denoted
by AnB is the set of all possible outcomes that are common to A
and B.
i. Mutually exclusive events:- Two events A and B are said to be
mutually exclusive events if they cannot occur at the same time
(together). i.e. AnB= ∅
j. Independent events:- Two events are said to be independent if
the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of occurrence
or non occurrence of the other
k. Equally likely outcomes:- These are outcomes that are equally
probable.

Counting Techniques

The calculation of probability involves counting the number of

favorable outcomes
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Eg. A student goes to the nearest snack bar to have his breakfast.
He can have either tea, coffee or milk with either bread, cake or
sandwich. How many possibilities does he have?
Bread Bread Bread

Tea Cake Milk Cake Coffee Cake

Sandwich Sandwich Sandwich

9 possibilities (multiplication rule)
However, in many cases, the possible outcomes may be large that
listing them all will not be feasible. For those cases several
counting techniques are developed.
Eg. If 4 Americans, 3 Russians and 3 Ethiopians are to be seated
in a row, how many seating arrangements are possible when people
of the same nationality must seat together?
Eg. A student has 12 books that he is going to put on a shelf of
that 5 are biology, 4 are chemistry and 3 Mathematics. Assuming
that all the books are different how many different arrangements
are possible.
1 If there is no restriction
2 If all books dealing with the same subject to be together
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 Multiplication Rule

If a choice consists of k steps of which the first can be made in n1

ways for each of these the second can be done in n2 ways · · · and
for each of these the k th can be done in nk ways then the whole
choice can be made in n1 × n2 × · · · × nk ways.
Ex An air line has six flights from A to B and seven flights from
point B to C per day. If the flight are to be made on separate days,
how many different arrangements can the air line offer from A to
C?
Ex Given the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 how many three digit numbers
can be formed from them if
1 no digit should be repeated
2 any digit can be repeated any number of times
3 The first number should be odd

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 Addition Rule
If there are k operations O1 , O2 , · · · , Ok let ni be the number of
alternative ways in which Oi can be performed. Then the number
of ways in which O1 or O2 or Ok can be performed is
n1 + n2 + · · · + nk
Eg If we are planning a trip for A to B and are decided between
bus and train routes. If there are 3 bus routes and 2 train routes,
how many alternative routes are there for the trip?

Defn Factorial
The procedure of all positive integers less than or equal to the
positive integer n is called n-factorial and is denoted by n!, i.e.
n! = n(n − 1)(n − 2) · · · 2.1
Eg 3!=3.2.1=6 5!=5.4.3.2.1=120
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 Permutation
If an arrangement of distinct objects in a defined order
Eg Suppose we have four letters A, B, C and D. In how many ways
can we select two letters and arrange them?
Possibilities AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, .........
Defn The number of permutations of r objects selected from n
distinct objects denoted by nPr is given by
n!
nPr =
(n − r )!
4!
4P2 = = 4 × 3 = 12
(4 − 2)!
Eg In how many ways can 5 people be seated on bench if they are
only 2 seats available?
Notes 1 The number of permutations of distinct objects taken all
together is
n!
nPn = = n!
(n − n)!
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Eg Suppose a photographer must arrange three people in a row for
a photograph. In how many different ways can the arrangement be
done?
2 The number of permutations of k distinct groups of objects of
size n1 , n2 , · · · , nk in which each ni ’s should be together is given
by (n1 !n2 !n3 ! · · · nk !)k!
Eg If 4 Americans, 3 Russians
3 Given n objects of which n1 , are of one kind n2 of are there kind
· · · nk of another kind then the number of distinct permutations
that can be made is
n!
n1 !n2 ! · · · nk !
Eg How many different permutations can be made from the letters
in the MISSISSIPPI?
11!
1!4!4!2!
4 A set of n distinct objects can be arranged around a circle is
(n-1)! ways (why?)

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 Combination
Is the selection of objects without regard to their order
Eg. Consider the four letters A, B, C, D
Possible combinations AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, =6 ways
Defn
The number of combinations of r objects from n objects is denoted by
nCr and is given by
n!
r !(n − r )!
Eg How many combinations of four objects are there taken two at a time
n=4, r=2,
4!
4C2 = =6
2!2!
Ex 1. In a club there are 7 women and 5 men. A committee of 5 persons
is to be selected. In how many ways can this be done if
1 the committee consists of 3 women and 2 men
2 all women
3 4 men and 1 women
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Ex 2. A committee of 5 person must be selected from 5 men and 8
women. In how many ways can selection be done if there are at
least 3 women on the committee.
Ex 3. In how many different ways can 3 persons be chosen from 4
married couples
1 If all are equally eligible

2 A husband and a wife can’t serve on the same committee

Approach to Measuring Probability

There are 3 approaches to establish the probability of events
namely classical, frequency and axiomatic approach
1. Classical Approach:- If all outcomes of a random experiment are
equally likely, then the probability of events A denoted by P(A) is
defined as
number of outcomes favouring A n(A)
P(A) = =
Total number of outcomes n(S)
Ex A fair coin is tossed twice what is the probability of getting
a) two head b) at least one head
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Ex 2 There are 3 defective bulbs in a batch of twenty. If 4 bulbs
are chosen at random for inspection. What is the probability that
1 one of defective bulb is included

2 none of them defective

3 atleast one is defective

2. The frequency approach:- The probability of all events is the

proportion of time that events of the same kind occur in the long
run. Equivalently, if out of n repetitions of a random experiment,
event A occur n(A) times then
n(A)
P(A) ≈
N
Eg Records have shown that 60 out of 100,000 bulbs produced are
defective. What is the probability of a newly produced bulb to be
defective.
3. The axiomatic approach:- This approach gives no precise
definitions of probability but rather certain axioms on which
probability calculations are based.
for any events A and B and sample spaces, the following axioms
hold
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 i 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
ii P(S)=1
iii If A and B are mutually exclusive events then,
P(AUB)=P(A)+P(B) i.e. the probability of A or B.

Remarks
1 if A ≤ B then P(A)≤ P(B)

2 P(A’)=1 − P(A)
3 P(∅)=0
4 If A⊂ B, then P(A)≤ P(B) and any two sets A and B,
B=AU(A’nB)
Eg The probability that a student gets grades A, B, C, D or F in
stat 2103 are 0.12, 0.26, 0.43, 0.12 and 0.07 respectively. What is
the probability that a student will get a) A or B b) other than F
Note 1 For any two events A and B P(AUB)= P(A)+P(B)-P(AnB)
and if A, B and C any three events
P(AUBUC)= P(A)+P(B)+P(C)-P(AnB)-P(AnC)-P(BnC)+P(AnBnC)
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Note 2 Probability of occurrence of A or B but not both is given by
P(A’nB)U(AnB’)= P(A’nB)+P(AnB’)
Eg. The probability that a person stopping at a gas station will ask
to have oil checked is 0.14, the probability that he will ask to
check his tire is 0.27 and the prob that he will ask both checked is
0.09. What are the probabilities that
a) Either his tire or his oil checked
b) Neither his tire nor his oil checked
c) his tire or his oil but not both
Ex. Give two events G and H for which P(G)=0.46, P(H)=0.35,
P(GnH)=0.21 find
a) P(G’) b) P(GUH) c)P(G’nH’) d)P(G’UH)
e)P(G’nH) f) are G and H mutually exclusive? why?

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Subjective Probability:- uses a probability value based on an
educated guess or estimate, employing opinions and inexact
information.
This guess is based on the person’s experience and
evaluation of a solution. For example,
A sportswriter may say that there is a 70% probability that
the Pirates will win the pennant next year.
A physician might say that, on the basis of her diagnosis,
there is a 30% chance the patient will need an operation.
A seismologist might say there is an 80% probability that an
earthquake will occur in a certain area.

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Conditional Probability

When the probability of an event depend up on the occurrence of

the another event the two events are said to be inter dependent.
Defn
The probability of an event B occurring when it is known that
some event A has occurred is called the conditional probability of
B given A, denoted by P(B/A) and is defined as

P(AnB)
P(B|A) = , P(A) > 0 (1)
P(A)
EX Suppose we have 2 red balls and 3 white balls in a box. Two
balls are drawn from the box one after the other. What is the
probability that both balls are red if we draw without replacement?
What is the probability that both balls are red if we draw with
replacement?

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Independent Events
Defn
Two events A and B are defined to be independent if
P(AnB)=P(A)P(B) equivalently
P(A| B)=P(A) and P(B| A)=P(B)
EX Let a fair coin be tossed three times. Consider the events
A: the first toss is head
B: the second toss is head
are A and B independent
Soln S={HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, ,THT, TTH, TTT}
A={HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT}
B={HHH, HHT, THH, THT}
AnB={HHH, HHT}
P(A)= n(S) = 48 = 12 , P(B)= n(B)
n(A) 4 1
n(S) = 8 = 2 , P(AnB)=
n(ANB) 2 1
n(S) = 8 = 4
But P(A)×P(B)= 12 × 12 = 14
∴ A and B are independent Biol5001
Eg. In a certain high school class consisting of 60 girls and 40
boys, it is observed that 24 girls and 16 boys wear eyeglasses .
If a student is picked at random from this class, what the
probability that the student wears eyeglasses , P(E), is 40/100
or 0.4 .
What is the probability that a student picked at random wears
eyeglasses given that the student is a boy?Ans:
(16/100)/(40/100)=16/40
What is the probability of the joint occurrence of the events
of wearing eye glasses and being a boy? Ans: (16/40)
(40/100)=P(E/B)P(B)=P(EnB)

Gender Diseased Non-Diseased Total

Male 30 10 40
Female 50 10 60
Total 80 20 100

P(Disease in Male)= 30
40
P(Disease in Female) 50
60
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Example: 2×2 Table

Screening test for disease

Test Diseased Non-Diseased Total

Positive 85 20 105
Negative 15 180 195
Total 100 200 300

85
Sensitivity= P(+ in Diseased)= 100 Specificity= P(- in
180
Non-Diseased)= 200

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