Candlestick Patterns Just The Ones You Need

You might also like

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 72

Candlestick Patterns

Just the Ones You Need!

Presented by:
Active Trend Trading
Disclaimer

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential
rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures
and options markets.

Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell stocks, futures or options. No
representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this training.
The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record,
simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-
over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general
are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight.
No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
All Materials presented are for training purposes only . Traders should paper trade any new method prior to risk of personal
capital.
Building Wealth
Stay Focused on the Process

Mark Douglas said: “What you want to do is become an expert at


just one particular type of behavior pattern that repeats itself with
some degree of frequency.

To become an expert, choose one simple trading system that


identifies a pattern, preferably one that is mechanical, instead of
mathematical, so that you will be working with a visual
representation of market behavior.”
Webb PhD, Paula T; Douglas, Mark. Becoming "The Disciplined Trader": Instilling a Comprehensive Winning
State of Mind

Copywrite ATTS
2007-2021 3
Candlesticks –
Just the Ones
You Need!
A c t i v e Tr e n d Tr a d i n g
D e n n i s W. W i l b o r n
“If you don’t know precisely what signal is yours & how you
will size and manage your position—STOP TRADING!
~Peter Brandt

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 5


If Only We Really Understood….
What do stock/ETF charts really reflect?

1. The Combined belief of every person who is trading or not trading an entity at a specific
moment

2. Decision & Indecision

3. Areas of Value where Institutions will likely “take action”

Not understanding what’s happening on the chart will result in trading against the probabilities

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 6


If Only We Really Understood….
What do stock/ETF charts really reflect?

4. Econ 101 – Supply & Demand

What Happens at a Value Area which has been conquered by Sellers (Lots of Supply)?

What Happens at a Value Area which has been conquered by Buyers (Lots of Demand)?

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 7


If Only We Really Understood….
When Institution buy or sell it leaves footprints!

If we understand what the footprints are telling us, we will make better trading decisions!

If a footprint identifies where a band of sellers are hanging out, what will you do?

If a footprint identifies where band of buyers are hanging out what will you do?

What’s keeping you from acting?

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 8


Quality of Belief Determines Quality of Action —
Faulty Beliefs Lead to Faulty Actions!

~ Active Trend Trading

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 9


History of Candlesticks Patterns…
Charting method originating In Japan between the 18 th century & late 1800’s

Potentially used by Japanese Rice Traders

Introduced to Western Traders by Steve Nison in the 1990’s

Knowledge base and trading importance expanded by Steve Bigalow

Probability Studies By Thomas Bulkowski

MAJOR NEWS – CANDLESTICKS ARE NOT A TRADING STRATEGY!

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 10


Golden Rule of Candlesticks
Candlesticks and patterns require four criteria for proper interpretation:

1. A Completed Line (Must wait for the time period to finish!)

2. Location, Location, Location

3. Color

4. Shape & Size

5. UNDERSTAND WHO’s IN CONTROL & WHO WON THE BATTLE


Remember
- Wicks: Long Shadows and Tails tell exactly where buyers or sellers are coming into the trade

Location Location
Location Location

Location
Other Considerations
- Size & Color: Larger candles are move predictive than Small Candles
- Color change from Red to big Green candle
- Color Change from Green to big Red Candle

Green Followed by Green Followed by


Big Red Big Red Green Followed by
Big Red

Big Red Followed Big Red Followed


by Green by Green

Big Red Followed


by Green
Questions

14 Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021


Candlestick Basics

Candles and Technical Analysis go together

Powerful Tools – Only partially understood by most traders

Immediate feedback on investors sentiment

Greatly improve Reward/Risk on every trade in all time frames

Be a detective – Look for the Convergence of Clues


Presentation Material by: Active Trend Traders

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 15


What’s the Difference?
Bar Chart vs Candlesticks

Bullish Bearish

High
Open
Close

Close
Open
Low

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 16


Primary & Best Candlestick Signals

There are many, many Candlestick Patterns but these


represent the Primary & Best
Indecisive
Doji's/Spinning Tops

Bullish Bearish
Hammer Hanging Man
Engulfing Patterns Engulfing Patterns
Piercing Line Dark Cloud
Harami Harami
Inverted Hammer Shooting Star
Morning Star Evening Star

Kicker Kicker

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 17


The Dynamic Doji—Watch for Small Bodies

- Doji’s and Spinning Tops show indecision between buyers &


sellers—Neither side is in control!

- Clues: When present at past support/resistance or moving


averages with indicator extended or divergent

- Price Action will tend to move in the direction of the open


after a Doji/Spinning Top

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 18


Doji/Spinning Top Bullish
How Many Clues? TNA Daily
53.25% in 18 Days
Would be comfortable trading this of
support at $27.06?

Doji’s at
Support

&
Clue: TSI Cross & MF 3 Line Cluster

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 19


Be a Detective: Search for Clues
TNA Weekly

151% in 140 Days

How Many Clues?


1. Doji
2. Strong Support?
3. Crossing & Divergent Indicators

2 1 4. Break Above 8 period EMA

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 20


Conclusion of Part 1

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 21


Candlestick Reversals Part 2

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 22


Hammers & Hanging Men

- The Basics Shape


Small Body

Shadow must be 2X the Body

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 23


Hammers & Hanging Men
Understanding what the line tell us?
- Buyers Wrestled control from sellers during the trading
period—but where it appears is equally important!

R - Shows levels & zones of support and resistance

What’s Important—Context & Convergence

1. Where the line forms—Uptrend or Downtrend?


2. Quality of the Candlestick
S 3. Magnitude/Range of the line—Bigger Better!
4. Other Clues
5. Defining Expectations & Failure of the Signal

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 24


Hammers & Hanging Men

Quality of the Signal is determined by:

1. Where the Line appears—How long has the preceding trend been in
place? Appearing after longer trends can have greater meaning

2. The Magnitude/Range of the Line

3. Convergence of other clues include:


▪ Identify Support/Resistance
▪ Proximity to Moving Averages
▪ Indicators

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 25


Hammer
Swing High
Only occurs after a downtrend.
Shadow must be 2X the Body

Expected move back to swing high,


trend lines or moving averages

Hammer Support

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 26


Hammer Convergence of Clues
41% in 28 Days
TNA 2/3/14

Note: Retested and


Bounced

What Happened

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 27


Hanging Man
Only occurs after an
Uptrend. Shadow must Resistance
be 2X the Body

Expected move back to


swing low, trend lines or
moving averages

Swing Low

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 28


Hanging Man Convergence of Clues

TNA 5-3-11
What Happened

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 29


Poor Quality Hammer or Hammer Failure

Two Hammer examples:

1. Too Close to Resistance of Moving Averages

2. Appearing shortly after a new downtrend

AAPL 10/2012

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 30


Poor Quality Hanging Men or Hanging Men Failure

Two Hanging Man examples:

1. The lower wick entry signal as never triggered

2. Pattern just coming out of consolidation—uptrend


yes but new uptrend

QIHU 4-2013

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 31


Secrets of Trading Hammers & Hanging Men

Understand the Parts:


Resistance
Zone 1. Stays in effect until a close violates signal high or low

2. Both are self confirming signals

3. High is Top of a Resistance Zone


Support
Action 4. Low is Bottom of a Support Zone
Zone
Points
5. Hammer—expect testing of the wick

6. Hammer use low of body as a stop after a breakout or with


Long legged Hammers

7. Hammer middle of wick can be early entry

8. Violating Low is max stop loss

9. Hanging Man violating high is max stop loss

10. Both May Appear with other candlestick reversal patterns


in series (Pay attention to this!)

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 32


Secrets of Trading Hammers
Opens above yesterday’s candle
Opens in Wick Entry 3
Entry 2

Stop From Entry 2 or 3

Opens in Wick
Entry 1 Next Day Entries & Stops
Hammer
1. Self confirming signals can be
entered day of signal
Max Stop Any Entry

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 33


Secrets of Trading Hanging Men
Max Stop Any Entry
Opens in Top Wick

Opens in Wick
Entry 1 Next Day Entries &
Stops Hammer
1. Self confirming signals
Opens in Lower Wick can be entered day of
signal

Opens in Lower Wick


Entry 2
Opens Below yesterday’s candle
Entry 3

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 34


Clue: Dissect Each Candlestick Signal

- Every Candlestick Signal can be broken down just like the Hammer & Hanging Man

- Use the small bodies to your benefit and plan trade Action Points for Entry & Exit

- Count the Clues

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 35


Shooting Star

Resistance Only occurs after a Uptrend. Body inside


previous days candle

Wick must be 2X Body

Color of candle doesn’t matter

Expected move back to swing low, trend


lines or moving averages

Swing Low

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 36


Shooting Star
Shooting Star
What are the Clues?

-10.74% Drops Low in 5 Days

Clue: Divergent TSI

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 37


Evening Star—Two Day Pattern

Resistance

Only occurs after a Uptrend. Body inside


previous days candle

2nd Down day closes at least ½ way down


candle from 2 days prior

Expected move back to swing low, trend


lines or moving averages

Swing Low

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 38


Evening Star

What are the Clues?


Expectations?
Evening Star

-13% Drops Low in 12 Days

Clue: TSI & MF Cross

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 39


Inverted Hammer
Swing High
Only occurs after a downtrend. Shadow
must be 2X the Body

Can be very powerful signal

Expected move back to swing high, trend


lines or moving averages

Hammer Support

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 40


Inverted Hammer

What are the Clues?

14%+ Gain to High in 13 Days

Inverted
Hammer

Clue: TSI & MF Crosses

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 41


End of Part 2

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 42


Candlestick Reversals Part 3

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 43


Morning Star—Two Day Pattern
Swing High Only occurs after a downtrend. Body inside
previous days candle

2nd up day closes at least ½ way up candle


from 2 days prior

Expected move back to swing high, trend


lines or moving averages

Hammer Support

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 44


Morning Star
11%+ Gain from Signal to High in 2 Weeks
What are the Clues? 13%+ Gain from Second Signal in 2 Weeks
How many do we need?
Does the Morning Star
really matter?

Morning Star

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 45


Bullish Engulfing—Two Day Pattern
Swing High Only occurs after a downtrend. Completely
engulfs the previous days body.

Expected move back to swing high, trend lines


or moving averages

Support

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 46


Bullish Engulfing

12.8%+ Gain from Signal to


What are the Clues? High in 6 weeks

Bullish Engulfing

Clue: Divergent Stochastics

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 47


Bearish Engulfing
Only occurs after a Uptrend. Completely
Resistance engulfs the previous days body.

Expected move back to Swing Low, trend


lines or moving averages

Swing Low
Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 48
Bearish Engulfing

What are the Clues? Bearish Engulfing

12.8%+ Gain from Signal to


High in 6 weeks
What’s This?

Clue: Divergent Stochastics

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 49


Piercing Line

Swing High Only occurs after a downtrend. Must


open below and close more than ½
way up preceding candle.

Expected move back to swing high,


trend lines or moving averages

Support

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 50


Piercing Line

70%+ Move from Signal to


What are the Clues? High in 2 Months

Piercing Line

Clue: Oversold Stochastics

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 51


Dark Cloud

Only occurs after a uptrend. Must


Resistance open above and close more than ½
way down preceding candle.

Expected move back to swing low,


trend lines or moving averages

Swing Low

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 52


Dark Cloud
What are the Clues? Dark Cloud

-9% Drop from Signal to Low


in 2 days

Clue: Weak Stochastics

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 53


Bullish Harami
Swing High Only occurs after a downtrend. Body inside
previous days candle

One of the most powerful signals

Only Two Clues Needed

Color of candle doesn’t matter

Expected move back to swing high, trend


lines or moving averages

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 54


Bullish Harami
13%+ Gain from Signal to High in 4 Weeks
What are the Clues?

Bullish Harami

Clue: Oversold Stochastics Turning Up

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 55


Bearish Harami
Only occurs after a Uptrend. Body inside
previous days candle

One of the most powerful signals

Color of candle doesn’t matter

Only Two Clues Needed

Expected move back to swing low, trend lines


or moving averages

Swing Low

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 56


Bearish Harami
Bearish Harami
What are the Clues?

-20% Drop from Signal to


Low in 5 Weeks

Clue: Divergent Stochastics Turning Down

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 57


End of Part 3

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 58


Candlestick Reversals Part 4

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 59


Kicker Signal
• Rare but very powerful

• 2 Day Pattern

• Investor Sentiment:
• Bullish Kicker: Downtrend, a capitulation like move down, followed the next
day by a gap up move
• Bearish Kicker: Uptrend, Exhaustion move up, followed by a gap down move
the next day

• Strong Reversal Clue: Clues Needed Two

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 60


Kicker
Swing High Only occurs after a downtrend. Can follow sell
off gap down.

Very Powerful Signal

Next day opens up with a gap

Expected move back to swing high, trend lines


or moving averages
Gap up

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 61


Kicker—Bullish
What are the Clues? 19%+ Gain from Signal
How Many Are Needed? to High in 18 Days

Bullish Kicker

Clue: TSI & MF

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 62


Bearish Kicker

Only occurs after a uptrend. Can follow


exhaustion gap up.

Very Powerful Signal

Next day opens down with a gap

Gap Down Expected move back to swing Low, trend lines or


moving averages

Swing Low
Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 63
Kicker—Bearish

What are the Clues?


Bearish Kicker
How Many Are Needed?

-66%+ Drop from Signal in 28 days

Clue: TSI & MF

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 64


Doji Sandwich
• Very Powerful

• 2 Day Pattern—Bullish or Bearish

• Investor Sentiment:
• Bullish: Strong move up and a pause with a doji then a new strong move
• Bearish: Strong move down and a pause with a doji then a strong move down

• Strong Clue: Clues Needed Two

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 65


Doji Sandwich Bullish

Uptrend Underway

Doji forms after a large bullish candle

Next day forms a doji


Doji
If prices open up the 3rd day will likely move
an equal distance as day 1

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 66


Doji Sandwich Bearish
Swing High

Down Trend Underway

Doji forms after a large Bearish candle

Next day forms a doji


Doji
If prices open down the 3rd day will likely
move an equal distance as day 1

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 67


Doji Sandwiches
Bearish DS

Bullish DS

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 68


End of Part 4

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 69


Live Examples

GO to the Charts!!

Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 70


Clarify, Simplify & Multiply
T h i s h a s b e e n t h e M o t t o o f A c t i v e Tr e n d Tra d i n g f r o m t h e b e g i n n i n g !

We continuously work to Clarify & Simplify through refinements to


the system to make it objective and easy to both learn and use.

The purpose of all presentations is to provide our fellow Active


Tr e n d Tra d e r M e m b e r s a j u m p s t a r t t o a c c e l e ra t e p r o g r e s s u p t h e
Learning Curve.

We welcome suggestions on how to improve the learning process!

Tra d e W i s e l y & P r o f i t a b l y,
D e n n i s W. W i l b o r n
F o u n d e r & L e a d Te c h n i c a l A n a l y s t
Copywrite ATTS 2007-2021 72

You might also like