SMA4

Computing
1. A
KOL’s monthly sales for a seven-month period
7 554 28 1
were as follows:
× -

Ʃ bt =
28 :
= = 1 .
07
74140
-

28438
Y
=
1
13 | -
1 .

07 × 28
=
{4 4号
Mont Sales Ʃ圳 =
554
α= .
.

h (000)Units 了

Feb. 18 2 = 40 7 t
Y
ω
= 14 43 + 1 .

Mar. 16
.

Apr. 15
May. 18
Sept t 8
=
:

Jun. 20
Jul. 21
Aug. 23 = { = 22 .

99
sept

Forecast September sales volume using each of

the following:
A linear trend equation. (Round your intermediate
calculations and final answer to 2 decimal
places.)
2. A KOL’s sales over an 18-week period are as
follows: Ʃt G = [] 1 Ʃ Y = 6310
.

是 66805 Ʃ ti l 09
ty
=
,
= 2
t y
Week Number Week Number Week Number
|>= 1416
1 250 7 295 13 410
2 260 8 325 14 415 a = 226 .
04

3 270 9 355 15 435

Y
4 260 10 345 16 445 = 216 . ω 4
× 14 . 6
t

5 270 11 375 17 455

b l
6 275 12 405 18 465 t t 2
=
.

= 30 ,

499 24
Y 0
= .

Yn 1
= 513 . 40

a. Determine a linear trend line for expected

sales. (Round your intermediate calculations
and final answers to 2 decimal places.) 14 16 t g}
=

ψ+
0
o
C
rvb .
.

= 3 t =
43 6 .

wowld
∴ 4
f th week

be eenuliest .
b. Use the above trend equation to predict expected
sales for Weeks 20 & 21. (Round your final
answers to 2 decimal places.)

c. The KOL intends to join in another social media

paltform when the sales exceeds 830 per week.
Assuming the current trend continues, in which
week (at the earliest) should the sales reach that
level? (Use the rounded answers, as required,
from any previous part of this problem. Do not
round any other intermediate calculations.
Round your final answer to 2 decimal places.)
3. A KOL’s sales for the past year are shown in the
following table, along with monthly indexes
(seasonal relatives). Deseasonalize the
sales. (Round your answers to the nearest
whole number.) sept : 679
Month Units Sold Index Month Units Sold Index
Oct =
639
Jan. 645 0.70 Jul. 765 0.90
.

687 5
Feb. 655 0.80 Aug. 785 1.10 Wov = .

Mar. 640 0.60 Sept. 815 1.20 Dec -

=
628 .

Apr. 740 0.94 Oct. 815 1.20

May 745 0.89 Nov. 825 1.20
Jun. 843 1.00 Dec. 785 1.25

qFeb Mar
ban
Apr
ω )
Month
= . =

may
=
83 ) µ1 .
=
850
=

, 819
- 7 s 7 Mn
bug 714
=
843
.
=
=

4. The following table shows a KOL’s quarterly sales

for the current year. What sales would you predict
for the first quarter of next year? Quarter relatives
are SR = .94, SR = 1.22, SR = .96, and SR = .88.
1 2 3 4

For the trend forecast (T), add the difference

between quarter 3 and quarter 4's deseasonalized
sales data to the deseasonalized quarter 4
sales. (Round your answer to 1 decimal place.)
 Q ,
d =
100

Qrd =
84 6 .

Quarter 1 2 3 4
Q 3 d ( 12 }
Sales 94.0 103.2 107.8 140.8
= .

Q 4 al = 160 .

= ar 2
3 . ay
[ xo

5. Activity
-s Q . nexeyeariboew
3 T

1. Select one stock

2. Collect the stock price data in a year
3. Construct time series models (Daily, Weekly) for it
4. Check the accuracy with MAD, MSE or MAPE