Father Saturnino Urios University

Main Campus

San Francisco Street, Butuan City

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Country Paper Analysis

INDIA

Dhianne Espora

Jamica Cushi Estampa

Dairyll Deann Gabanan

Mikaela Andree Galo

Barbie Gammad
 CHAPTER 1: POVERTY, INEQUALITY AND DEVELOPMENT

Poverty and Inequality

India is known as the second-most populous country in the world. India is a

developing country. Poverty is one of their major problem, despite of having a decline in

poverty. India has over 1.4 billion people living the country. Over 83 million people in India

are considered as poor regardless of their gender. Individuals living on US$1.9 or having

less Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is considered as extreme poor, as what the World

Bank defined, according to an International Monetary Fund paper. India was low as 0.8%

in 2019, and they managed to maintain it in 2020 despite of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Figure 1: Poverty Rate in India from year 2004 to 2020.

Source: NSS 2011-12 MMRP data; Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) growth rates for

estimates of monthly per capita consumption; authors’ calculations.

As what you can see in the figure shown above, we can see that India really have

a decline in poverty throughout the years. In the pre-pandemic year in 2019, India

managed to lessen the poverty that they are facing. In year 2020, despite of the COVID-

19 out-break the impact of it in poverty was small.

As shown in the table above, the average share of wealth of top 1% and top 10% show a

faster improvement in wealth accumulated compared to the bottom 50%, especially in the

21st century. Another takeaway from the table shown is that wealth growth significantly

slowed down after 2010, from a growth rate roughly 8% in 1995-2010 to 5% in 2011-

2020.

In the year 1996-2000, you can see in the table shown above that the Average

Annual Growth Rate of Net Personal Wealth of bottom 50%, top 10%, and top 1% are

somewhat the same. In year 2001-2010, the Average Annual growth rate of Net Personal

Wealth of bottom 50%, decreased. While in the top 1% and top 10% increased. In year

2011-2020, top1%, top 10%, and bottom 50% Average Annual Growth Rate of Net

Personal Wealth are all deceased. Despite of having a low rate in poverty, India risen its

rate in inequality.

Rural and Urban Areas Poverty

25.1 percent of the population in India was multidimensionally poor, the poverty

ratio was as high as 32.75 percent in rural areas. This was against 8.81 percent of the

population in urban areas. The population in India stood over 1.4 billion. According to the

NITI Aayog, extrapolating the multidimensional that was given by them would mean that

a bit over 288 million people in rural areas and close to 38 million in urban areas were

poor as of 2015. The major difference between rural and urban poverty in India is that it

lies upon their standard of living. The urban areas enjoys higher living standard compare

to rural areas. The urban poor enjoy better access to quality education than the rural

counterparts. Health care facilities prevalent in the urban areas are far better than that in

the rural areas.

Gender Poverty

An estimated of 87 million women are living in an extreme poverty in 2020 in India.

As per the report of extreme poverty, it is stated that living on less than $1.90 a day, is

expected to be increase unconsciously due to COVID-19 out-break. In India, the poverty

rate for women in an age of 25-34 years old is estimated to be 12% in 2020. It is equivalent

around to be 13.4 million women aged 25-34 living in extreme poverty. By 2021 14.7%

women are living in extreme poverty compared to men with 13.7%. The poverty rate in

women in year 2021 aged 25-34 are estimated to increase to bringing 14% to total count

to 15.2 million. These numbers translate into 120 extreme poor women for every 100 poor

men in 2021. It’s ratio is expected to worsen to 129 poor women per 100 poor women in

2030. It is stated that in the current pace in India, it will take the country to another 37

years to close the gender poverty gap among individuals of ages 25-34.

Policies Implemented

The government of India invested in some of the reduction initiatives toward poverty in

their country. These initiatives help in decreasing the county’s poverty and inequality.

Each initiatives implemented provides the impoverished have strong desires to overcome

poverty. These initiatives are:

1. Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA): This

initiative was passed in August 2005 and launched in February in the next year.

MGNREGA seeks to increase security and decrease labor migration from rural to

urban areas. It also provides minimum wages to employees, making basic

amenities accessible and helping increase income and purchasing power, since

2006.

2. Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY): This initiative was launched on August

2014 by Prime Misister Modi. PMJDY endeavors to secure communities with

affordable financial services. These financial services includes pension, insurance,

savings, and deposit accounts.

3. Saansad Aadarsh Gram Yojana (SAGY): SAGY is a government program that

focuses on the social and cultural development of villages. It was started when

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is considering the increasing of poverty rates in

 October 2014.The overall purpose of this initiative is to improve the living condition

and overall quality of life for all residents.

4. National Rural Livelihood Mission (NRLM): This initiative was started on June 11

to provide poor with a stable monthly income. NRLM provides households with the

means to self-employment and skilled wage employment opportunities to improve

their livelihoods.

5. Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana-National Urban Livelihoods Mission (DAY-NULM):

In September 2013, the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs implemented the

DAY-NULM. The poor in India in urban areas have low education rate, harsh

livelihood conditions, and minimal work opportunities. DAY-NULM motivates every

individuals in urban areas, train them, provides shelter and established rights-

based linkages with other program.

 CHAPTER 2: POPULATION GROWTH AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Demographic Transition

The current study's data came from a variety of sources. The UN's World

Population Prospects (2019) provide the world population for the previous and future

years. India is the second-most populous country in the world. The international

community has expressed concerns about India's rising population size and high growth

rate, which has received unprecedented attention on almost all platforms. However, India

continued to add an average of 18 million people annually to its already extensive

population, leading to a total national population of 1.21 billion in 2011. An assessment

by the UN (2019) indicated that India’s population would peak at 1.65 billion in 2061,

begin to decline after that and reach 1.44 billion in the year 2100.

This shows the estimated and observed exponential annual population growth rates

(percentage) during 1901–2011 and 2021–2101, respectively, for India. UN (2019).

Annual population growth in India peaked at 2.22% between 1961 and 1971, and

then hovered around 2% for the next four decades until 2001. This was India's second

stage (population explosion stage") of demographic change, during which the country

added around 590 million people. Between 2001 and 2011, India's population growth rate

fell significantly from 1.95% in 1991-2001 to 1.62% in 2001-2011. According to the UN's

2019 assessment, India's population will overtake China in the next 7-8 years and

continue to grow until 2061, when it will reach 1,650 million. India's total population may

fall after 2061, with 1,444 million people in the year 2101. As a result, India's population

would grow by another 440 million people before stabilizing. In other words, in the next

50 years or so, India is expected to approach the fourth stage (near-zero growth rate).
The third stage of India's demographic shift could occur between 2011 and 2051. The

momentum built into the population's age structure would primarily drive its growth.

Future prospects of the demographic transition for India, 1950–2100. UN (2019).

Changes in fertility and mortality are the two most important demographic factors

contributing to population growth in India. The total fertility rate (TFR) in India declined

about 6.5 children per woman in the early 1960s to 2.3 children per woman in 2016 (a

reduction of 4.2 children per woman in fewer than six decades).

Age structure and dependency burdens

Age distribution by sex and dependency ratios (child, old age, and total) for India

from 1981 to 2011 (census) and 2036 (NCP, 2019). Age-sex population pyramids

depicted in Figures 3A and 3B. . Nationally, the proportion of children under the age of 15

in the overall population fell from almost 40% in 1981 to 31% in 2011. According to the

NCP (2019) forecasts, the percentage will fall to 20% by 2036. The proportion of persons

aged 60, up climbed to 9% in 2011, and is expected to reach 15% by 2036. (Over 227

million). Changes in reliance ratios for youngsters and the elderly confirm an age structure

transition. While the reliance ratio for children in India fell from 73% in 1981 to 51% in

2011, the dependency ratio for senior adults climbed slightly from 12% to 14%. According

to official demographic forecasts, the child-reliance ratio will fall to 30% in 2036, while the

dependency ratio for older persons would rise to 23% nationally. In 2001, India had

around 587 million persons between the ages of 15 and 59 in the labor force. Nearly 60%

were between the ages of 15 and 34. (349 million). In 2011, the number of persons aged

15-59 years and 15-34 years climbed to 733 million and 425 million, respectively.

According to population forecasts, while the number of people of working age will expand

to about 989 million in 2036, young labor will reach 464 million. Such changes would have
an impact on future economic development and would need the government to launch

novel measures to care for the elderly. Furthermore, a significant increase in the

workforce necessitates the creation of new jobs.

The first image is the age-sex population pyramids of India, 1991. The second one is the

age-sex population pyramids of India, 2036.

Policy Implementation

Family Planning and Unmet Needs

India acquired the status of being the first nation globally to launch an official family

planning program in 1952. It aims to achieve replacement-level TFR (roughly two children

per woman) through "promotional and motivational measures" that put an emphasis on

quality of life as opposed to using numerical targets for the use of specific contraceptive

techniques, which hampered earlier programs. The suggested program discusses

improved management of public health, education, and sanitation while emphasizing

women's employment. The policy's main goal is to address the unmet demand for
essential facilities, services, and resources in the fields of reproductive and pediatric

health. Other objectives include lowering infant and maternal mortality and achieving

universal childhood immunization against diseases that can be treated with medicine.

Raising the age at which girls can get married to 18 or 20 and increasing the amount of

time that girls spend in school.

For instance, incentives of 500 rupees at the time of a female child's birth and

prizes of 500 rupees to mothers who have their first child after turning 19 seem impractical

given that the nation's registration of births and deaths suffers from incompleteness.

Furthermore, if offers of health insurance are made to low-income couples who undergo

sterilization, the government's argument that population stabilization is necessary for

sustainable development "with more equitable distribution" may be called into question.

The degree to which the roles of men and women are carefully balanced will

determine how well the population program performs. It is common knowledge that Indian

women frequently act sexually immaturely. Despite the fact that women use the majority

of contraceptive methods, many of them lack the authority to decide whether to reduce

their family size or opt for a particular preventative measure. The suggested policy would

focus information and education efforts on men in order to support small families and

raise awareness of the benefits of birth spacing, better health and nutrition, and better

education.
 CHAPTER 3: URBANIZATION AND RURAL- URBAN MIGRATION

Rural and Urban Population

In 2021, India's urbanization rate was 1.34%. India's urbanization rate in 2021,

growth was 1.5% on an annual basis. From 2010 through 2021, the metric went up by

19.6%. According to the World Bank's collection of development indicators, which was

produced from officially recognized sources, the country's rural population was estimated

to be 900239774 in 2021.

The World Bank was used as the source for current numbers, historical data,

forecasts, and projections in December 2022. The unorganized sector employs 83% of

the labor force, compared to the organized sector's 17%. In the economy, there are 92.4%

of workers who do not have written contracts, paid time off, or other benefits. The level of

outsourcing is indicated by the 9.8% informal workers in the organized industries. In the

rural and urban populations, respectively, 1094 and 649 patients, respectively, had

cataracts. In the rural and urban populations, monotype subtype cataracts were identified

in 32% and 25% of the population, respectively, while the mixed cataract rate was 12.68%

and 18.6%. The risk variables in the urban group were a history of diabetes, drinking, and

the presence of age-related macular degeneration.

Rural Population VS Urban Population

Informal Sector

The First Indian National Commission on Labour (1966-69) defined ‘unorganised

sector workforce’ as –“those workers who have not been able to organize themselves in
pursuit of their common interest dues to certain constraints like casual nature of

employment, ignorance and illiteracy, small and scattered size of establishments”.

Employees are considered in informal employment when other employment relationship,

in law or practice, is not subject to: National labour legislation, Income taxation, Social

protection or, Entitlement to certain employment benefits, e.g. paid annual leave, sick

leave, etc.

EMPLOYMENT IN THE INFORMAL SECTOR

These are two stage stratified random sampling designed covering the entire

country to capture information from the households. Typically, the information is collected

from the head of household on the household members relating to gender, education and

employed. Also, information on the type of enterprise (proprietary partnership,

government, public/private companies, cooperative societies trust, NPISHs, employer

households (private households employing maids, drivers etc,) and others in which one

is employed. Information on conditions of employments are also collected. The

households are also classified as self-employed, wage workers, non-workers, attending

educational institutions etc. by location. In the employment and unemployment surveys

of the quinquennial rounds of NSSO, persons are classified into various activity

categories in three approaches on the basis of activities (economic/non-economic)

pursued by them during certain specified reference periods. The three approaches are

usual status approach, current weekly status approach and the current daily status

approach. Three reference periods used in NSS surveys are (i) one year, (ii) one week

and (iii) each day of the reference week.

NUMBER AND SHARE OF INFORMAL SECTOR EMPLOYMENT IN THE LABOR

MARKET

DATA SOURCE: WORLD OF LABOR

Urban Employment

The unemployment rate in current weekly status terms for all ages in the

September quarter (second quarter or Q2) of FY23 is the lowest unemployment rate

recorded in more than four years, from the time the NSO launched India’s first computer-

based survey in April 2017.

The unemployment rate among men and women has been estimated at 6.6 and

9.4 per cent, respectively. It has been showing continuous decline since the April-June

quarter (first quarter, or Q1) of 2020-21, when it was estimated at 12.6 per cent.

Data source: Department of statistics India

Unemployment Rate in India averaged 8.22 percent from 2009 until 2020, reaching

an all-time high of 23.50 percent in April of 2020 and a record low of 6.40 percent in

September of 2020. The main reason behind this type of migration is better employment
opportunities in urban areas compared to rural areas, availability of regular work, good

educational facilities and sources of entertainment.

In 2021, approximately a third of the total population in India lived in cities. The

trend shows an increase of urbanization by almost 4 percent in the last decade, meaning

people have moved away from rural areas to find work and make a living in the cities.

About 5 million persons per year are out-migrating from rural India, of which about 3

million per year are coming to urban areas. The rural out-migration rate is high in most of

the poor and backward states, which are mostly agrarian. Mechanization in agriculture is

driving rural-urban migration in India.

Policies Implemented

The Indian government offers social security and welfare programs to its citizens,

which are jointly or concurrently sponsored by the central and state governments. "Central

sector schemes" are programs entirely funded by the federal government, while "centrally

sponsored schemes" are programs primarily funded by the federal government but

carried out by the states. There are 740 central sector programs in the Indian Union

budget for 2022, and 65 (+7+) centrally sponsored programs.

 CHAPTER 4: THE ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT

Environmental protection is one of the basic prerequisites for the overall

development of any country in the world. There must be a contribution to biodiversity if

economic growth and development are to be maintained, which is a goal that every

country in the world desires. Establishing workable initiatives and balancing human

activity's economic, social, and environmental aspects are the goals of sustainable

development.

4.1 Environmental Issues of India

In the country of India, there are many factors for its environmental issues, such as

factors like rapid growth of the population, urbanization, industrialization, and poverty,

among others that are responsible for harming the environment. Some of the severe

environmental

issues prevalent in India are:

• Degrading Air Quality Index

• Rampant Environmental Degradation

• Loss of Biodiversity

• Urbanization in the Himalayas

• Loss of Resilience in Ecosystems

• Lack of Waste Management

• Depletion of Resources (land, air, water)

• Growing Water Scarcity

One of India's biggest problems is the country's high population density, especially in

its rapidly expanding urban areas. The number of big cities with a million or more residents

is growing, which is worsening the nation's environmental issues. Air pollution, water

pollution, waste, and environmental degradation are some of India's most serious

environmental issues. The severity of environmental challenges in many parts of the

country means that they cannot be ignored.

4.1.1 Population growth and Environmental degradation

India is the second-most populous country in the world after China. Recently, the

population of India has crossed the one billion mark (1.393 billion in 2021). India is one

of the countries where rapid population growth is damaging the environment by

expanding and intensifying agriculture, accelerating urbanization and industrialization,

and destroying natural ecosystems. Population impacts the environment primarily

through the use of natural resources and the production of wastes and is associated with

environmental stresses like loss of biodiversity, air and water pollution, and increased

pressure on arable land. Human population issues are significantly important when it

comes to our way of life and our future on this planet. Environmental degradation is said

as both a cause and an effect of poverty. It's a complicated situation, yet poverty and the

environment are inextricably linked. Because the poor rely more on natural resources

than the rich, inequality may promote unsustainability because the poor consume natural

resources more quickly because they have less chance of accessing other resources.

Agricultural development's direct environmental effects result from farming practices that

exacerbate soil erosion, land salinization, and nutrient loss. Land degradation has been

primarily attributed to shifting farming. Water bodies can get contaminated by leaching

from the heavy use of fertilizers and pesticides. The effects of intensive agriculture and

irrigation on the environment are particularly salinization, alkalization, and water logging.

The dynamic interaction of socioeconomic, institutional, and technical activity leads to

environmental degradation.

4.1.2 Air and Water Pollution

The main environmental problems in India relate to air and water pollution,

particularly in metropolitan cities and industrial zones, degradation of common property

resources which affect the poor adversely as they depend on them for their livelihood, a

threat to biodiversity and an inadequate system of solid waste disposal and sanitation

with consequent adverse impact on health, infant mortality, and birth rate. India's efforts to

regulate air and water pollution have resulted in only marginal improvements in infant mortality

rates in the country. The ineffectiveness of the regulations could be traced to poor institutional

settings and lack of enforcement of the regulations (2014). Developing nations like India with

ongoing urbanization are suffering from increased air pollution issues due to the lack of

services such as adequate transportation management, suitable roads, and unplanned

distribution of industries (Rumana et al., 2014). The congested roads in cities reduce

average vehicular speed resulting in higher vehicular emissions and adding to air pollution

levels (West Bengal Pollution Control Board, 2010). Air pollution from industrial effluents
and vehicle emissions, chemical soil pollution, and GHG. Due to air pollution, India's

major cities are subjected to unhealthy and unhygienic conditions (Dutta et al., 2021).

Since a few decades ago, the constant and worrisome rise in urban air pollution in India's

megacities has been a growing environmental concern (Faheem et al., 2021). The single

biggest cause of water pollution in India is the uncontrolled rate of urbanization. Even

though urbanization has only increased rapidly over the past ten or so years, it has

already had a profound impact on India's water resources. Long-term effects of these

include various environmental problems, such a lack of water supply and the production

and collection of waste-water, to mention a few. Uncontrolled urbanization in these areas

has also led to the generation of sewage water. In urban areas, water is used for both

industrial and domestic purposes from waterbodies such as rivers, lakes, streams, wells,

and ponds. Worst still, 80% of the water that we use for our domestic purposes is passed

out in the form of wastewater. In most of the cases, this water is not treated properly and

as such it leads to tremendous pollution of surface-level freshwater. As far as India is

concerned polluted water is one of the major factors behind the generally low levels of

health in India, especially in the rural areas. Polluted water can lead to diseases such as

cholera, tuberculosis, dysentery, jaundice, diarrhea, etc. Around 80% of stomach ailments

in India happen because of consuming polluted water.

4.2 Sustainable Development Initiatives in India

Sustainable development can be interpreted in many different ways, but at its core is

an approach to development that attempts to balance multiple, and often conflicting, goals

against an understanding of the environmental, social, and economic restrictions we face

as a society. NITI (National Institution for Transforming India) Aayog, the newly

formed commission that replaced the 65-year-old Planning Commission in India,

is entrusted with the task of coordinating SDGs in India. The announcement

underlines India’s commitment to combat air pollution with a solutions -oriented

approach. India will work with Coalition countries to adopt cleaner energy

sustainable production and consumption patterns and environment -friendly

transport, agriculture, industry, and waste management to promote clean air,”

Minister Javadekar said. “India has taken a lead role in combating air pollution;

these activities, including bilateral and multilateral cooperation with partners, will
highlight India’s initiatives and experti se in the field." Clean air and climate-

friendly technologies will be at the forefront of sustainable development for all

countries; India is a global leader in the development of technologies,

infrastructure, and policies in this field. Emulating the success of SBM, the ‘Har Ghar

Jal’ programme under the Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM) launched for India's water sector in

2019 and is expected to provide access to clean water through functional tap water

connections for 100% of rural households in India by 2024. India attained UN Millennium

Development Goals (MDGs) (MDG 2000–2015) in the water sector by 2015 and

substantially improved its performance in the sanitation sector by 2019. The ongoing

water and sanitation programs will assist India in achieving the 2030 Sustainable

Development Goals (SDGs) for improved sanitation and safety, and universal access to

water.

4.2.1 Governmental Initiatives in India

While the cooperation of every citizen of the country is essential for safeguarding

the environment, governments have a huge role to play in helping find solutions

to the problems. The government of India has taken various steps to safeguard

the environment. Some of them are listed below:

1. Swachh Bharat Mission

2. Green Skill Development Programme

3. Namami Gange Programme

4. Compensatory Afforestation Fund Act (CAMPA)

5. National Mission for Green India

6. National River Conservation Programme

7. Conservation of Natural Resources & Eco-systems

4.3 Policies Implemented about the environmental issues of India

In India, three primary organizations—the State Pollution Control Boards at

the state level, the Central Pollution Control Board at the national level, and the

Ministry of Environment, Forests, and Climate Change —adopt, carry out, and

enforce environmental regulations. The following are India's primary

environmental policies:
 • Environmental (Protection) Act 1986

• Water (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act 1974

• Air (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act 1981

Due to the widespread dumping of hazardous items in water bodies and

hazardous emissions in India, air and water pollution are important issues. Since they

were initially created in the middle of the 1970s and the 1980s, policies governing these

activities have not been revised. These regulations control consents and licenses for the

use of surface and groundwater, ensure that effluent and emission discharge criteria are

met, and forbid the polluting of water resources.

• Environmental (Protection) Act 1986 – This article gives the Central

Government the authority to create agencies [under section 3(3)] with the

responsibility of avoiding environmental pollution in all of its forms and addressing

particular environmental issues that are unique to certain regions of the

nation. The purpose of this policy are protecting and improving the quality of the

environment and preventing, controlling, and abating environmental pollution.

• Water (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act 1974 - The maintenance or

restoration of the country's water's cleanliness and hygiene, as well as the

prevention and management of water pollution. In order to provide for the levying

and collecting of a cess on water consumed by those operating and carrying out

specific kinds of industrial operations, the Water (Prevention and Control of

Pollution) Cess Act was passed in 1977. This cess is gathered to supplement the

funds available to the Central Board and State Boards for the prevention and

control of water pollution, which were established in accordance with the 1974

Water (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act. The Act last underwent revision in

2003.

• Air (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act 1981 - The Indian Parliament

enacted the Air (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act of 1981, often known as

the Air Act, to avoid and mitigate the negative consequences of air pollution in

India. This action is regarded as the government of India's first significant step

toward combating air pollution. Due to a multitude of circumstances, including

burning of stubble, inappropriate industrial practices, environmental conditions,

 etc., India itself has air pollution problems. Under the Indian Constitution, a unique

law called the Air (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act of 1981 was passed to

address these problems.

Companies who violate any of these environmental laws or regulations face

serious repercussions. More punitive than what we observe in other nations for identical

offenses. In India, violations are subject to penalties of up to 1334 USD, imprisonment for

up to 5 years (which is increased to 7 years if the violation persists for 1 year from the

date of conviction), or both. Certain environmental offenses in the US carry sentences of

six months to a year in prison. Additionally, the Indian Public Liability Insurance Act

(1991) is in existence to cover for damages to public victims or properties of incidents that

happened when handling hazardous chemicals. (By Sunita Paudyal)

 CHAPTER 5: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND DEBT CONDITION

THE BALANCE OF PAYMENT (BOP) OF INDIA

Throughout the history of human civilization, trade between other cultures and

groups has been prevalent. International commerce is crucial to every nation's economy

in the contemporary world. The principle of international commerce is the exportation of

commodities and services that a nation has an excess of or is skilled at and the

importation of those that it lacks. The value of exports and imports, as well as the gap

between them, may provide information on the status of a nation's economy. The balance

of payments is a useful indicator of the surplus or deficit in a country's international

commerce. We examine the Balance of Payments (BOP) and its many components in

India and their developments in this paper.

Positive Capital Account offsets negative Current Account

A statement called the balance of payments (BoP) keeps track of all financial

transactions that took place between citizens of one nation and people from other

countries during a specified period of time. The balance of payments (BoP) statement

reveals a country's surplus or deficit. BoP statement is composed of three parts. Capital,

current and financial account. All of a country's inflows and outflows of goods and services

make up its current account. All international capital transactions are included in the

capital account.

Figure I: INDIA’S BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (In Billion Rupees)

Trading and income deficits cause current account deficit

The current account takes into account transfers and revenues as well as the

exchange of tangibly good and services. The net worth of the current account has

fluctuated throughout the last 10 years, but it has always been negative. It may be
concluded from this those imports were more costly than exports. A closer look at the

current account numbers indicates that although net transfers have always been positive,

net income and net trade values have always been negative and have contributed to the

current account deficit. At the start of the decade, in 2009–2010, the net value of transfer

was 2484 billion. It gradually increased throughout the course of the decade, reaching

4892 billion in 2018–19. On the other hand, the imbalance for Net Income and Net Trade

has been progressively growing.

Figure II:

COMPONENTS OF CURRENT ACCOUNT (In Billion Rupees)

The two categories under the heading "Income" are employee compensation and

investment income. Investment Income does not always display a surplus, even if

"Compensation of Employees" does, with Inwards always exceeding Outwards. Over the

previous ten years, the net value of investment income has been in the red each year.

Figure III: COMPONENTS OF INCOME (In Billion Rupees)

Imports surpass exports, causing trade deficit

Even while the net deficit shown under "Income" contributes to the current income

deficit, its share is smaller. The vast trade imbalance of India is the primary cause of the

current revenue shortfall. Services and material items are both included in trade. A deeper
look reveals that India has a surplus in its trade of services, but its deficit in its trade of

tangible items is so great that it creates a net trade deficit. The surplus from the trade of

services has multiplied 3.35 times in the previous ten years. The surplus via services rose

from $1,712 billion in 2009–10 to $5,738 billion in 2018–19. Travel, transportation,

software services, financial services, etc. are just a few of the many service components.

The trade imbalance for products has more than quadrupled during the same time span.

The trade imbalance for goods climbed from $5,599 billion in 2009–10 to $12,609 billion

in 2018–19. The previous year with the biggest goods trade imbalance was 2012–2013,

when it was $10,645 billion. The size of this deficit decreased over the next years, coming

to 7,545 billion in 2016–17. However, the goods trade imbalance increased over the last

two years, reaching 10,317 and 12,609 billion in 2017–18 and 2018–19, respectively.

Figure IV: COMPONENTS OF TRADE (In Billion Rupees)

Imports exceeded exports

India's exports of commodities have grown three times in the last ten years. The

value of India's imports, on the other hand, has climbed by about 4.2 times during the

same time period. The growing trade imbalance is a result of the bigger proportionate

growth in the value of imports over exports. The number of products imported in 2013–

14 surged significantly, rising to 28,159 billion from 16,677 billion the year before.

Following a modest uptick, the following year, the value of imported products decreased

in 2015–16 and 2016–17. Additionally, during the last two years, exports have increased

in line with this. However, the value of imports climbed by 3,898 billion and 5,959 billion

respectively in 2017–18 and 2018–19. Exports barely climbed by 1,125 billion and 3,668

billion, respectively, in response. Consequently, the deficit gap has grown despite a

bigger growth in exports during 2018–19 due to the increase in imports.

 Figure V: VALUE OF IMPORT AND EXPORT OF GOODS (In Billion Rupees)

Export value increases lessen trade deficits

It certainly seems that lowering imports might assist close the trade imbalance

given the rise in export value. A brief glance at the various imported goods would show

that petroleum products, equipment, organic, and inorganic chemicals make up a

significant portion of the imports. Since they are essential to the nation's commercial

activities, these commodities have a substantial influence on the economy. While other

solutions may be considered, a short-term drop in imports may not be a viable option.

The deficit may be reduced, however, by increasing exports—more especially, the value

of services, where India enjoys a surplus. The following article will examine the various

elements of India's exports and imports, as well as associated trends, and explain why

the BoP was negative in 2018–19.

Net financial account (BoP, current US$) - India

Figure VI: NET FINANCIAL ACCOUNT (In Billion Rupees)

According to established practice, the Reserve Bank of India compiles and

releases the foreign debt for the quarters ending in March and June, and the Ministry of

Finance, Government of India, compiles and releases the external debt for the quarters

ending in September and December. As a result, the Ministry of Finance, Government of

India, is releasing statistics on foreign debt for the quarter ending December 2009. Gross
private transfer revenues, which include remittances from Indians working abroad, were

US $ 17.5 billion and contributed 12.6% of current receipts to the BoP, almost the same

level as in the previous quarter and a year earlier. Although net loans obtained by banks

increased by US$ 6.6 billion due to the inward repatriation of assets held abroad by banks,

net inflows of foreign direct and portfolio investment were slightly lower in the financial

account on a q-o-q basis. On a year-over-year basis, however, the level of net financial

flows was broadly sustained, with larger equity inflows revolving around the non-resident

deposit schemes. On a BoP basis, India's foreign currency reserves increased by a net

US$ 13.2 billion in Q3 2014–15, nearly twice as much as in the quarter before but less

than in Q3 2013–14, which benefited from exceptional non-resident and bank overseas

borrowings.

In the financial account, net foreign direct investment was $12.0 billion, up from

$6.4 billion in Q4 of the previous fiscal year. Due to net sales in both the debt and equity

markets, foreign portfolio investment (FPI) decreased by US$ 13.7 billion in Q4 2018–19

compared to an increase of US$ 9.4 billion in Q4 2018–19. In Q4 of 2019–20, net inflow

from foreign commercial borrowings to India increased to US$ 9.4 billion from US$ 7.2

billion in Q4 of 2018–19. Net inflows under "other capital" increased during the quarter as

a result of COVID-19-related uncertainty, which was evident in, among other things, the

FPIs' outstanding balances with custodian banks and the impending issuing of shares by

FDI businesses. On a BoP basis, there was an increase in foreign currency reserves of

US$ 18.8 billion as opposed to US$ 14.2 billion in Q4 of 2018–19.

 CHAPTER 6: FINANCE AND FISCAL POLICY FOR DEVELOPMENT

This chapter explains India's most recent inflation, the Central Bank's inflation rates

in relation to the monetary situation, as well as the latest tax revenue collection and

policies in their fiscal policy. Additionally, the section covers recent developments in

India's fiscal policy.

Inflation Rate

Over the past ten years, inflation in India has increased exponentially. There has

been a slight decline, however, since 2010. Retail inflation is expected to remain at 6.7%

in 2022-23, while real GDP growth is expected to reach 7%. These projections have been

sustained by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) (Pradhan, 2022).

Figure I. Annual Inflation Rates in the Country (Graph)

Table I
Inflation Rates Breakdown 2012 - 2022
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual

6.0 7.4 6.8

2022 6.1% 7.0% 7.8% 7.0% 7.0% 6.7% 7.0% - - -
% % %

4.1 4.3 4.5 4.9 5.7

2021 5.0% 5.5% 4.2% 6.3% 6.3% 5.6% 5.3% 5.13%
% % % % %

7.6 7.3 7.6 6.9 4.6

2020 6.6% 5.8% 7.2% 6.3% 6.2% 6.7% 6.7% 6.62%
% % % % %

2.0 4.0 4.6 5.5 7.4

2019 2.6% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% 3.1% 3.3% 3.73%
% % % % %

5.1 3.7 3.4 2.3 2.1

2018 4.4% 4.3% 4.6% 4.9% 4.9% 4.2% 3.7% 3.94%
% % % % %

3.2 3.3 3.6 4.9 5.2

2017 3.7% 3.9% 3.0% 2.2% 1.5% 2.4% 3.3% 3.33%
% % % % %

5.7 4.4 4.2 3.6 3.4

2016 5.3% 4.8% 5.5% 5.8% 5.8% 6.1% 5.0% 4.95%
% % % % %

5.2 5.4% 5.3% 4.9% 5.0% 5.4% 3.7% 3.7% 4.4 5.0 5.4 5.6 4.91%
2015
% % % % %

8.6 5.6 4.6 3.3 4.3

2014 7.9% 8.2% 8.5% 8.3% 6.8% 7.4% 7.0% 6.67%
% % % % %

11.6 12.1 11.4 10.2 10.7 11.1 10.9 10.8 11.1 11.5 12.7 11.1
2013 10.9%
% % % % % % % % % % % %
 10.6 9.9% 9.8% 9.7% 10.% 9.9% 9.9% 10.4 10.3 9.5 8.8 7.7
2012 9.48%
% % % % % %

Source: India Inflation Rate 1960-2022. (n.d.). MacroTrends. Retrieved December 9, 2022, from
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/IND/india/inflation-rate-cpi

The annual rates of inflation for the years 2012 through 2022 are presented in table

n. In addition to that, it outlines the breakdown on a monthly basis. The Consumer Price

Index (CPI), which is one of the indicators that is utilized to measure inflation in India,

showed that retail inflation in the country had decreased to 6.77 percent year-on-year in

October 2022. This was a decline from September's five-month high of 7.41 percent,

which was contributed by delayed surges in food prices and a strong base consequence.

Nevertheless, the reading emerged marginally higher than the 6.73 percent that the

market had anticipated, and it remained far above the 2-6 percent target level that the

central bank had set for a tenth consecutive period. In October, consumer prices

increased by 0.80 percent from the previous month, which was the highest monthly

increase since May (Inflation Rate and Consumer Price Index, n.d.; Triami Media, n.d).

Interest Rates in Relation to Financial Situation

The Reserve Bank of India's Central Board of Directors is responsible for setting

interest rates in the country. The official interest rate is used as a standard rate for

repurchases. Since 2014, the RBI has prioritized market stability over other goals, such

as reducing government debt, preserving the value of the rupee, and securing export

earnings.

On December 7, 2022, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) elevated its major policy

rate by 35 basis points to 6.25%, the largest increase across over three years and the 5th

upsurge in a row, vowing to continue its battle to subdue rising prices. (Reserve Bank of

India, 2022). The central bank has left its inflation forecast for financial year 2023

unchanged at 6.7%, but it has reduced its projection for economic growth from 7.0% to

6.8%. The interest rates for the standing deposit were both increased by the same

amount, 35 basis points, to a new level of 6% and 6.5, respectively. The Real Interest

Rate in India is currently at -0.82%, a decrease from the previous year's rate of 3.36%.

The long-term average is 5.68%, so this is significantly lower than that (BankBazaar,

2022).
Figure II. 2012 – 2021 Data of the Country’s Annual Interest Rate (YCharts, n.d.; (The World Bank Group,
n.d.)
Tax Revenue Collection and Policies in relation to Fiscal Situation

The amount of financial information that is created accessible to the general public

in India demonstrates that the country has reached a degree of fiscal transparency that

is acceptable by international standards. The passage of current fiscal policy legislation

in the national assembly would lead to the publication of statements addressing the total

absence of context analysis and information in relation to the central public finances.

It is projected that in 2021-22, the deficit will amount to 6.9% of GDP due to

decreased financial expenses and enhanced capital outlay. The new budget estimates

that the country will have a deficit of 6.4% of GDP in the fiscal year 2022-2023. This

projection accounts for a decrease in current expenditures but a significant rise in capital

expenditures (Rai, 2022).

Table II
2012 – 2021 Tax Revenue Collection
Tax Revenues of Central and State Governments
Centre & States
Year Centre (gross) States
combined
2012-13 1033425 654534 1687959
2013-14 1134083 712462 1846545
2014-15 1241424 779305 2020728
2015-16 1449958 847143 2297101
2016-17 1715822 906325 2622145
2017-18 1915494 1062640 2978134
2018-19 2078665 1200282 3278947
2019-20 2160633 1387325 3547958
2020-21 2420090 1531567 3951657
Source: Reserve Bank of India. (2021). Table 104 : Direct and Indirect Tax Revenues of Central and State
Governments. Retrieved December 10, 2022, from
https://m.rbi.org.in//scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=20509

The aforementioned table details the financial contributions to India's federal and

state governments The Indian government published the totals for direct tax collection

through November 10, 2022. There was a 30.69 percent increase in revenue from the

previous year, with total receipts reaching 10.54 trillion rupees. The amount of money

collected in direct taxes before refunds was Rs 8.71 trillion, an increase of 25.71 percent

from the previous year. Based on the official numbers provided by the government, this

collection accounts for 61.31 percent of the overall budget estimates of direct taxes for

FY 23. Between April 1st and November 10th, 2022, a total of Rs 1.83 trillion in refunds

were distributed, an increase of 61.07 percent from the same time period the previous

year (BS Web Team, 2022).

 CHAPTER 7: COMPARATIVE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Basic Indicators of Development

1. Income

Income is one of the most basic markers of development. GDP, GDP per capita,

GNP, and other income indicators are all included in this measure of a country's yearly

economic growth.

India Fiscal Year GDP Growth

The Indian economy expanded 8.7% in the 2021-2022 fiscal year, rebounding

from a 6.6% contraction in the 2020-2021 year. Source: Ministry of Statistics and

Programme Implementation (MOSPI)

The graph above depicted India's annual growth rate in the gross domestic product

(GDP) for the last ten years. According to the graph, India's GDP Annual Growth Rate is

-6.6 in 2021, the lowest and only negative growth of India’s GDP over the past ten years.

However, in the present year of 2022, India’s GDP has been recorded with its highest

peak of 8.7 GDP Annual Growth Rate. Since 2012, India’s economy has been

continuously growing not until 2018 that it drops to a GDP Annual Growth Rate of 6.8

from its first peak of 8.3 in the previous year. The economic liberalization that began in

1991 and promoted commerce ultimately led to the abolition of certain state monopolies,

which is one of the reasons for India's prosperity. Inflation has risen sharply in recent

years, which has hindered GDP growth. The industrial and service sectors in India are

employing more people, in part because to overseas outsourcing, a successful endeavor

for the Indian economy. India's agricultural industry continues to be a worldwide force,

producing more wheat or tea than any other country outside China. India's unemployment
rate is still quite high, despite the tremendous population growth and industrialization of

many operations.

India Indicators

Figure 2. India’s GDP per capita

The graph above depicted India's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita over

the last ten years. The greatest GDP per capita in Malaysia was 1965.54 USD in 2019

and the lowest was 1346.68 USD in 2012. Based on the graphical representation of

India’s GDP, from 2012 to 2019 shows consistent growth not until 2019. And recover its
economy second to the highest peak of 2019. The Gross Domestic Product per capita in

India was last recorded at 1961.42 US dollars in 2021. The GDP per Capita in India is

equivalent to 16 percent of the world's average. Rapid population increase has a direct

impact on an economy's per capita income. The issue of resource allocation is brought

on by the fast expansion. The residents' income levels are lowered by a lack of access to

healthcare, education, and work possibilities, which decreases the nation's per capita

income.

2. Health and Education

Health Indicators (Mortality Rates)

In India in the year 2021, the mortality rate was 9.4 out of every 1,000 persons.

From a rate of 16.6 deaths per 1,000 people in 1972 to a rate of 9.4 deaths per 1,000

people in 2021, the mortality rate in India decreased steadily. The crude death rate is the

number of deaths that have occurred during the year, per 1,000 people whose population

was assessed in the middle of the year. The rate of natural growth may be calculated by

taking the crude death rate and subtracting it from the crude birth rate. This figure

represents the rate of population change that would occur if there were no migration. One
of the main factors contributing to India's poor health is water pollution. A wide range of

bacteria, biotoxins, and toxic pollutants may cause waterborne infections, which can then

result in life-threatening conditions including cholera, typhoid, diarrhea, and other

gastrointestinal issues. Waterborne illness outbreaks often happen following

precipitation.

Maternal mortality burden and distribution of causes

In India, the MMR decreased from 398/100,000 live births (95% CI 378-417) in

1997–1998 to 99/100,000 (90–108) in 2020, a fall of almost 70%. Maternal fatalities

ranged from 1.30 million (95% CI 1.26-1.35 million) to 23 800 (95% CI 21 700-26 000)

between 1997 and 2020, with the majority occurring in poorer states (63%) and among

women aged 20 to 29 (58%). The greatest MMRs exceeded India's 2016-2018 forecast

of 113 (95% CI 103-123), with Assam (215), Uttar Pradesh/Uttarakhand (192), and

Madhya Pradesh/Chhattisgarh (170) having the highest MMRs. The odds of maternal

mortality were higher in rural and tribal regions of northeastern and northern states after

adjusting for education and other factors. Obstetric hemorrhage (47%; greater in poorer

states), pregnancy-related infection (12%), and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (7%)

were the main causes of maternal mortality. India could be able to meet the UN MMR

objectives for 2030 if the average rate of decline is maintained. However, the poorest

nations won't without more assistance. Over the last 20 years, 1.3 million Indian women

have died from pregnancy-related causes. Despite a 70% reduction in maternal death

rates nationwide, the poorest states still trail behind.

India Population Growth Rate 2001-2022

Chart and table of India’s population from 1950 to 2022. United Nations projections

are also included through the year 2100. One of the key reasons for India's population

expansion is a drop in mortality rates brought on by better medical services and a steady

birth rate. The widespread illiteracy in India makes people feel that "children are god's

favors," which makes them opposed to the idea of "family planning."

• The current population of India in 2022 is 1,417,173,173, a 0.68% increase from

2021.

• The population of India in 2021 was 1,407,563,842, a 0.8% increase from 2020.

• The population of India in 2020 was 1,396,387,127, a 0.96% increase from 2019.

• The population of India in 2019 was 1,383,112,050, a 1.03% increase from 2018.
Literacy Rate

The adult literacy rate is the percentage of people ages 15 and above who can both read

and write with an understanding of a short simple statement about their everyday life.

India has a high rate of illiteracy due to economic inequality, gender, caste, and

technology hurdles. India has the highest percentage of adult illiterates, which worsens

the country's ongoing illiteracy problem.

• India’s literacy rate for 2018 was 74.37%, a 5.07% increase from 2011.

• India’s literacy rate for 2011 was 69.30%, a 6.55% increase from 2006.

• India’s literacy rate for 2006 was 62.75%, a 1.74% increase from 2001.

• India’s literacy rate for 2001 was 61.01%, a 12.79% increase from 1991.

3. Holistic Measures of Living Levels and Capabilities

India's performance across different HDI indicators in 1990 and 2021

The Human Development Index (HDI) 2021 was announced on Thursday by the United

Nations Development Programme (UNDP). India has dropped two positions, rating 132

as opposed to 130 in 2020 out of 191 nations, according to the survey.

A long and healthy life, access to information, and a reasonable level of living are

the three fundamental elements of human development that the HDI measures in

summary form throughout time. The Index includes social indices in addition to looking

beyond the positivist perspective on economic progress.

India's HDI score of 0.633, which was lower than its score of 0.645 in the 2020

report, placed it on the list of countries with a medium level of human development. India's

HDI rating increased from 0.434 to 0.633 between 1990 and 2021, a rise of 45.9 percent.

Four factors are used to compute the index: mean years of education predicted years of

schooling, life expectancy at birth, and gross national income per capita.

India's HDI score, 2021

Life expectancy at birth

According to WHO, life expectancy is the typical number of years that a baby might

anticipate living. Thus, a country's average life expectancy equals its life expectancy at

birth. Longevity increases with a higher quality of life.

 Life expectancy in India has increased from 58.7 years in 1990 to 67.2 years in

2021. This symbolizes an increase of 14.4% and points towards improvement in

healthcare and the standard of living in the country. Because of the many advances that

have been made in medicine and healthcare, people are living longer than they used to.

The life expectancy in India was 35.21 years in the year 1950, but it is projected to reach

81.96 years in the year 2100. It is essential to keep in mind that India's life expectancy in

the year 2022 is forecasted to be 70.19 years.

School Life Expectancy, Primary, Both Sexes (years)

In India, the primary school life expectancy for both sexes was estimated to be

4.8538 years in 2019, according to data from the World Bank's collection of development

indicators, which was gathered from reputable sources. The World Bank provided the

actual numbers, historical statistics, forecasts, and estimates for India's primary school

life expectancy for both sexes (years) in December 2022.

Mean years of schooling

Mean years of schooling can be defined as the average number of completed

years of education of a country's population aged 25 years and older, excluding years

spent repeating individual grades.

 This metric has significantly improved as India saw a change in the average

number of years spent in school, which went from 2.8 to 6.7. This indicates an increase

in the mean number of school years of 139%. The Human Development Index, which

gauges a country's health, education, and quality of life, has dropped internationally over

the last two years in a run since the pandemic for the first time in 32 years.

Gross national income per capita

Gross National Income (GNI) per capita is calculated by dividing the annual final

income of a nation by the number of people living there. The economic component of the

HDI is taken into consideration by this measure.

The per capita GNI of India has climbed from $1,790 in 1990 to $6,590 in 2021 using

2017 as the base year. This is a staggering 268% growth. The gross national income per

capita (GNI per capita, previously GNP per capita) is calculated by dividing the gross

national income in U.S. dollars using the World Bank Atlas method by the midyear

population. GNI is calculated by adding the value contributed by all domestic producers,

any product taxes (minus subsidies) that are not taken into account in the output

valuation, and net primary income receipts (employee pay and property income from

overseas). Although an alternative rate is used when the official exchange rate is judged

to deviate by an exceptionally large margin from the rate actually applied in international
transactions, GNI, calculated in national currency, is typically converted to U.S. dollars at

official exchange rates for comparisons across economies. The World Bank uses a

unique Atlas technique of conversion to smooth out changes in pricing and currency rates.

In order to account for variations in inflation rates between the nation and, through 2000,

the G-5 countries, this employs a conversion factor that averages the exchange rate for

the current year and the two years before (France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom,

and the United States). These nations, starting in 2001, include the Eurozone, Japan, the

UK, and the US.

• India GNI per capita for 2021 was $2,170, a 13.61% increase from 2020.

• India GNI per capita for 2020 was $1,910, a 9.05% decline from 2019.

• India GNI per capita for 2019 was $2,100, a 4.48% increase from 2018.

• India GNI per capita for 2018 was $2,010, a 10.44% increase from 2017.
 GENERAL CONCLUSION

With one of the world's fastest expanding economies, the third-largest startup

ecosystem, and manufacturing, digital, and tech services sectors that are set to become

global leaders, India is well-positioned to become a formidable economic growth engine.

The nation must simultaneously deal with the pandemic's impacts and the crucial task of

finding employment for the 90 million individuals who will enter the workforce by 2030.

After recovering from successive COVID-19 pandemic shocks, India overtook the UK as

the fifth-largest economy in the first quarter of FY 2022-23. India's recovery from the

epidemic is underway, with real GDP in the first quarter of 2022–23 4% higher than in

2019-20. In 2022–2023, the contact-intensive services sector will likely lead growth due

to pent-up demand and widespread immunization. GDP growth will benefit from

expanding employment, private spending, and consumer sentiment.

Tax buoyancy, a simplified tax system with low rates, a comprehensive tariff

evaluation and rationalization, and tax filing automation are projected to stimulate

government capital expenditure in the economy. With the monsoon rebound and Kharif

sowing, agricultural and capital investment on infrastructure and asset-building projects

would boost growth multipliers in the medium term. Over April–September 2022, contact-

based services unleashed pent-up demand to increase growth. Several HFIs (High-

Frequency Indicators) are signaling a sector recovery. India's robust democracy and

excellent relationships have helped it become the world's fastest-growing major economy.
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