Renewable Energy 181 (2022) 1188e1196

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Renewable Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/renene

Spatiotemporal estimation of photovoltaic system adopters using

fuzzy logic
Diego Marcochi de Melo , Joel Villavicencio Gastelu *, Patrícia T.L. Asano , Joel D. Melo
The Engineering, Modeling and Applied Social Sciences Center, Federal University of ABC e UFABC, Santo Andr

e, SP, Brazil

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: A considerable amount of governmental agencies have sought to improve their inhabitants' quality of life
Received 9 December 2020 in recent years, encouraging new sustainable technologies. The characterization of how these new
Received in revised form technologies are disseminated in urban areas can help planners carry out campaigns or incentive policies
20 August 2021
that help achieve decarbonization goals. This paper presents a methodology based on fuzzy logic to
Accepted 27 September 2021
characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics as to the adopters of photovoltaic systems in residential
Available online 30 September 2021
subareas. This characterization model proposes to demonstrate the influence that the first inhabitants,
who adopted the technology of photovoltaic systems, can exert on the inhabitants of adjacent sub-areas.
Keywords:
Fuzzy logic
Considering that the degree of adherence to photovoltaic technology is related to subjective character-
Photovoltaic systems istics, the proposal uses three linguistic variables: low, medium, and high to model such adherence using
PV system Adopters fuzzy sets. The proposed methodology results present heat maps that identify the subareas with more
Spatiotemporal analysis inhabitants adopting photovoltaic systems. Hence, it has been applied in a medium-sized city in the state
of Sa~o Paulo, Brazil. The obtained spatial distribution of photovoltaic adopters is heterogeneous, with
subareas presenting medium and high values of photovoltaic adopters for each study year. The per-
centages of categorized subareas as high in the years 2017, 2018, 2019 are 8,3%, 19,3%, 19,7%, respectively.
These results indicate that planners should promote more PV technology, especially in the city's outskirt
subareas. A spatiotemporal estimation method and the history of recording installations of photovoltaic
systems are used for comparison purposes. The comparison of results shows that the proposed method
better characterizes the PV diffusion installed in the first years. This class of results can help planners
better assess the diffusion goals of photovoltaic systems in urban areas, which are being used in the
integrated planning of sustainable cities and provide information for planners to reach decarbonization
goals.
© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Climate change concerns have motivated governments around
the world to encourage the use of renewable energies [1]. Thus,
subsidies or compensation have been offered to inhabitants that
adopt renewable energy sources. In Brazil, for instance, the gov-
ernment has provided a net metering scheme tariff since 2012 for
grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) systems [2]. Alternatively, in
Denmark, the government imposed a real-time pricing structure to
incentivize inhabitants to use renewable energies instead of fossil
* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: diego.marcochi@ufabc.edu.br (D. Marcochi de Melo), j.
villavicencio@ufabc.edu.br (J. Villavicencio Gastelu), patricia.leite@ufabc.edu.br
(P.T.L. Asano), joel.melo@ufabc.edu.br (J.D. Melo).
fuels [3]. These measures for promoting renewable energies are
part of an integrated planning towards implementing sustainable
cities [4,5].
Inhabitants' preferences towards PV system installation depend
on technical, economic, and environmental factors. Thus, incentives
offered by governments can stimulate them to adopt PV systems.
Additional incentives include the possibility for PV adopters to
connect their systems to the power network. An interesting issue is
to know how inhabitants are responding to these incentives. This
knowledge can help governments during the elaboration of energy
policies for future years.
Five types of consumers are observed when adopting new
technologies such as Photovoltaic: innovators, early adopters, early
majority, late majority, and laggards [6]. The innovators and early
adopters influence other inhabitants from these groups, changing
their acceptance for the new technology. Therefore, it is essential to

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2021.09.113
0960-1481/© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
D. Marcochi de Melo, J. Villavicencio Gastelu, P.T.L. Asano et al.
identify where the innovators and early adopters are located within
an area of interest. This identification will help the government to
promote the diffusion of PV technology.
The effect of information dissemination on PV system adopters
is quantitatively evaluated in Palm and Lantz [7]. The authors
concluded that campaigns promoting renewable energy improve
PV adopters' rates [7]. Therefore, policy-makers should include this
kind of campaign to increase the diffusion of PV systems.
In Palm [8], the author investigated what motivates early
adopters of PV systems. The author concluded that early adopters
are mainly driven by non-financial aspects such as environmental
concerns and technophile. This environmental motivation di-
minishes as the market matures, once late adopters are primarily
motivated by economic benefits. Therefore, it is essential to
consider the market's maturity stage during the estimations of PV
system adopters' rates.
In Bao et al. [9], from interviews with stakeholders of PV sys-
tems, the authors surveyed homeowners in order to understand
what they need and expect from PV systems. The authors found
that solar adopters are influenced mainly by cost savings, solar
system reliability, installer warranty, and reviewer ratings. Current
adopters considered installer reliability more important than price.
The interviews presented in Mah et al. [10] show that high
upfront costs and long payback periods are the main barriers to PV
diffusion. The authors also identified that a short payback period
changed the attitude of users towards PV system installation.
Furthermore, regarding energy policy measures, residential con-
sumers indicated preferences for subsidies. Therefore, govern-
ments should assume a proactive role to promote PV system
deployment.
Mundaca and Samahita [11] analyzed the influence of subsidies
and non-economic variables on PV system adoption. A survey
indicated that subsidies and peer effects are the main drivers to the
adoption of PV systems. Besides, environmental concerns played a
positive role as well. Therefore, subsidies and interacting house-
holds' information exchange process must be included in energy
policies.
A diffusion model of PV adoption based on social networks was
presented in Wang et al. [12]. The authors found that the promotion
of PV systems is linked to policy intervention on PV profits and
households' information exchange processes (social influence).
Therefore, campaign information about PV systems' benefits (eco-
nomic and environmental) is crucial to increase the PV system
adopters' rate.
The authors in Graziano et al. [13] analyzed how spatial peer
effects change when the built environment and jurisdictional
boundaries are considered. The authors noticed that spatial peer
effects occur even among tows, as in transcending municipal bar-
riers. In urban areas, peer effects last for a short time and in a short
distance. Therefore, the spatial peer effect must be considered
during the estimation of PV system adopters.
The influence of exogenous and endogenous factors, including
political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal
aspects on solar energy development, is evaluated in Alipour et al.
[14]. The authors found that economic and political factors domi-
nate the development of PV systems. Furthermore, these factors
indicate that financial analysis must be included in the estimation
of PV system adopters.
In Villavicencio et al. [15], inhabitants' uncertainties for
installing PV systems were modeled using a hierarchical Bayesian
model. In this model, the installation probabilities of PV systems
were estimated considering inhabitants' socio-economic condi-
tions and the spatial dependence among neighboring subareas.
Eventually, these probabilities were used to estimate the PV po-
tential at the subarea level.
1189
Renewable Energy 181 (2022) 1188e1196
The authors in Müller and Trutnevyte [16] used PV installation
data to make a spatial projection of this type of installation at sub-
national level. Socio-economic and socio-demographic variables
were considered to this end. The authors found that population
density and electricity prices were directly related to PV diffusion.
They concluded that neighboring subareas influence the adoption
of PV systems in one subarea.
Indeed subjective factors influence the inhabitants' decision as
to installing PV systems. Some works have analyzed these factors
using fuzzy logic, as the fuzzy system proposed in Wu and Zhou
[17]. However, the spatial influence of these factors which charac-
terize the PV adopters has not been presented in the specialized
literature. Performing this characterization is challenging for
planners and agents involved with the PV technology diffusion.
Therefore, the modeling of PV adopters performed in this work can
provide information for planners to reach decarbonization targets
and contribute to the city's sustainable development [18,19].
Inhabitants' preferences toward PV system installation present
more than just “yes” or “no” alternatives. According to specialized
literature, the vagueness of inhabitants' assessments can be modeled
using fuzzy logic [20]. Taking these inhabitants' preferences into ac-
count, a methodology based on fuzzy logic is proposed to estimate PV
system adopters in this paper. Besides, considering the peer effects on
PV system adoption reported in the specialized literature, e.g., in
Graziano et al. [13], exploratory spatial data analysis is included in the
proposed methodology. Considering that input data include socio-
economic and socio-demographic information, which has changed
over the years, the proposed method is formulated to perform a
spatiotemporal analysis of PV system adopters considering and
dividing them in three categories: low, medium, and high, and
applied to a medium-sized Brazilian city. The results obtained by the
proposal can bring information to the government and local author-
ities to implement sustainable cities. Another method and historical
data of installed PV systems are used for comparison purposes.
The contributions of this paper are:
A methodology that analyzes a spatial and temporal distribution
of adopters of photovoltaic systems by subarea. Such distribution is
presented in heat maps to identify the subareas with the highest
number of adopters. Furthermore, temporal analysis allows the
planners to determine the subareas with a high tendency of in-
habitants to adhere to photovoltaic systems technology because of
the influence of the first adopters of this technology.
The proposed approach seeks to model the inhabitants' sub-
jective characteristics related to the adoption of photovoltaic sys-
tem technology. Such modeling differs from methods that
characterize the inhabitants' preference by the possibility of
whether the inhabitant might adopt this technology or not.
2. Proposed methodology
In the proposed method, fuzzy logic and exploratory spatial data
analysis categorize PV system adopters in subareas and through the
years.
Inhabitants' decisions for installing PV systems or not are
generally based on their socio-economic characteristics as shown
in Gastelu et al. [15] and the economic profit of the PV installation
project [14]. Therefore, an economic feasibility analysis is consid-
ered during the estimation of PV system adopters. Other factors
that positively influence the decision mentioned above are the level
of solar irradiation [7] and the quantity of useable area on rooftops.
However, economic feasibility, solar irradiation, and useable
rooftop area generally change from one place to another within a
study area and through the years of a planning horizon. Therefore,
it is more suitable to perform a spatiotemporal estimation of PV
system adopters.
D. Marcochi de Melo, J. Villavicencio Gastelu, P.T.L. Asano et al. Renewable Energy 181 (2022) 1188e1196

Inhabitants' decision for installing PV systems can present
different categories and not only “yes” and “no” linguistic values.
Thus, fuzzy logic is considered during the estimation of PV system
adopters in the proposed methodology.
In general, fuzzy logic is performed in three stages: fuzzification,
inference, and defuzzification. In the fuzzification stage, crisp in-
puts are represented by linguistic variables [21]. For instance, solar
irradiation levels (quantitative values) can be defined using the
linguistic values: moderate, good, very good, and excellent. Next,
membership functions are used to represent linguistic variables.
More common membership functions (MFs) employed in special-
ized literature are triangular, trapezoidal, and Gaussian [22]. There
are no rules or criteria to select the most proper MF; therefore, it is
up to the experience of planners to decide which MFs better
describe the linguistic variables [23]. Accordingly, we use trape-
zoidal MFs, and two exceptional cases of it called R-function and L-
function. These selections allow us to consider an interval for the
maximum degree of membership.
In the inference stage, input linguistic variables are combined
according to defined rules using “IF-THEN” statements together
with logic connectors “AND” or “OR” to make the necessary con-
nections among the variables obtained in the fuzzification stage
[24]. Thus, the output of the inference stage is a fuzzy set of lin-
guistic variables.
According to the penetration level of PV systems in the study
area, the planners can define fuzzy rules using the registration of
consumers with PV systems or questionnaires to identify the in-
habitants' preferences for PV technology. For relatively high values
of PV penetration (e.g., over 30%), the corresponding statistical data
is available. In this case, such data can be used to construct the fuzzy
rules, as indicated in Tercan et al. [25] and Wu and Zhou [17]. On the
contrary, for relatively low values of PV penetration, the fuzzy rules
could be constructed from questionaries elaborated by planners, as
mentioned in Ko
czy et al. [26] and Hendiani and Bagherpour [27].
Therefore, it is possible to calibrate the proposed methodology to
determine the PV system adopters in different cities. Furthermore,
according to the expertise of the planners, it is possible to consider
using the registration data and questionnaires to define fuzzy rules.
In the defuzzification stage, the obtained fuzzy set (e.g., set A) of
the inference stage is interpreted by means of a crisp value (x* ).
Several defuzzification methods are employed in the specialized
literature, such as the center of gravity (COG) or centroid of area,
the mean of maximum, and the center average method [28]. One of
the most popular techniques is the COG method, which is consid-
ered here. For continuous membership functions, the crisp value is
calculated via COG method using (1):
ð
xmA ðxÞdx
x* ¼ ð ; (1)
mA ðxÞdx
The useable area on rooftops represents the area where solar
panels can be installed. Rooftops' area can be estimated using im-
age processing [29] or statistical data collected in census tracts [15].
In any case, during the useable area determination, reduction fac-
tors should be applied to consider some limitations in the use of the
rooftop area. These limitations can be related to existing facilities,
windows, chimneys, or types of rooftops (pitched or flat). Historic
buildings are excluded when estimating the useable area, as this
type of building presents legal restrictions. The useable area must
be calculated for each year of the horizon plan, as the number of
domiciles increases through the years.
The economic indicators NPV, IRR, payback, and LCOE are ob-
tained after performing a financial analysis of PV systems' instal-
lation [30]. This analysis is performed in each subarea of an area of
interest and year of a planning horizon.
2.2. PV system adopters’ categorization
For each jth year of a planning horizon (j ¼ 1, 2, …, T), the
categorization of the PV system adopters in subareas (i ¼ 1, 2, …, I)
of an area of interest is performed following the five steps shown in
Fig. 1.
In Step 1, fuzzy logic estimates the economic feasibility (EF) from
crisp values of the economic indicators: NPV, IRR, payback, and
LCOE. Then, in Step 2, fuzzy logic estimates the inhabitants' partial
feasibility for installing PV systems (IPF) from crisp values of solar
irradiation, percent of useable area (PUA), and the crisp value of the
EF variable obtained in Step 1. Next, in Step 3, the inhabitants'
feasibility for installing PV systems (IF) is calculated considering PV
system installation technical adhesion degree. Then, in Step 4, a
spatial analysis of the IF variable's crisp value in subareas is per-
formed using the local Moran's I statistics. Finally, in the last step,
PV system adopters are categorized, applying fuzzy logic to the
crisp values of IF and two other variables (MoranSTD and
MoranLAG) obtained in Step 4.
2.2.1. Step 1: economic feasibility
The economic feasibility is represented as a linguistic variable
whose linguistic values are EF ¼ (low, medium, high). The values of

where x is a linguistic variable of the fuzzy set A, and mA is the

membership function of the linguistic variable x.

2.1. Input data

Input data are the level of solar irradiation (G), the percentage of
useable area on rooftops (PUA), and feasibility economic indicators:
net present value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), payback, and
Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE).
Solar irradiation represents the energy source that will be
converted into electricity. Solar irradiation is available in most
countries, and it is considered constant for small- and medium-size
cities [15]. Fig. 1. Flowchart for estimating PV system adopters.

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D. Marcochi de Melo, J. Villavicencio Gastelu, P.T.L. Asano et al. Renewable Energy 181 (2022) 1188e1196

economic indicators are considered as input crisps. They are also

represented as linguistic variables, whose linguistic values are:
NPV ¼ (profit, loss); TIR ¼ (bad, good, excellent); Payback ¼ (short,
medium, long); and LCOE ¼ (low, high). The considered member-
ship functions of the variables mentioned above are shown in
Figs. 2e5. For each of these figures, the parameters ak, bk, ck and
dkðk ¼ 2; 3; 4; 5Þ are set based on knowledge of the correspondent
variable (NPV, IRR, Payback and LCOE). Alternatively, optimization
techniques can be used to set membership functions, e.g., Ref. [31].
A description of methods for setting membership functions can be
found in Ross [32].
A set of “IF-THEN” statements together with logic connectors
“AND” are used during the inference stage of the fuzzy logic to
make the necessary connections among the fuzzy variables. The set Fig. 3. Membership functions of IRR variable.

of statements considered in applying the proposed methodology

(steps 1, 2, and 5) are available in Melo [33]. The outputs of the “IF-
THEN” statements are established, seeking to keep the input and
output coherence. Thus, for input variables unfavorable to the PV
systems investment, the EF variable results in a “low” linguistic
value. For instance, IF NPV is “loss” AND IRR is “bad” AND payback is
“long,” AND LCOE is “low,” THEN the EF variable will be “low."
Similarly, input variables favorable to the PV system investment
result in the “high” linguistic value of the EF variable. The inter-
mediate combinations consider the number of modifications of the
input variables. Here, the EF variable will be activated; for instance,
if NPV is “profit” AND IRR is “excellent”, AND payback is “short” or
“medium” AND LCOE is “low."
The COG method indicated in (1) is considered to find the crisp Fig. 4. Membership functions of payback variable.
value of the EF variable. The linguistic value: low, intermediate, or
high, of the EF variable, is used for this crisp value, as described in
the following. First, the degree of membership of the crisp value is
calculated for the three linguistic values of EF. Then, the highest one
and its respective linguistic value are identified from the computed
degree of memberships. This determined linguistic value is the one
to which the EF variable belongs.

2.2.2. Step 2: inhabitants' partial feasibility for installing PV

systems
The inhabitants' partial feasibility for installing PV systems (IPF)
is modeled as a linguistic variable, whose linguistic values are IPF ¼
(low, medium, high). Furthermore, values of solar irradiation (G),
percent of useable area (PUA), and economic feasibility (EF) are also
represented as linguistic variables, whose linguistic values are: G ¼
(moderate, good, very good, excellent); PUA ¼ (very low, low, Fig. 5. Membership functions of LCOE variable.
medium, high); and EF ¼ (low, medium, high). The membership
functions of the variables mentioned above are shown in Figs. 6e8,
respectively. For each of these figures, the parameters ak, bk, ck, dk, ek, and fkðk ¼ 6; 7; 8Þ are set based on knowledge of the corre-
spondent variable (G, PUA, and EF).
The fuzzy rule-base used during the IPF variable determination
comprises “IF-THEN” statements together with logic connectors

Fig. 2. Membership functions of NPV variable. Fig. 6. Membership functions of G variable.

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D. Marcochi de Melo, J. Villavicencio Gastelu, P.T.L. Asano et al.
Fig. 7. Membership functions of PUA variable.
Fig. 8. Membership functions of EF variable.
“AND.” The same logic described in the previous section is followed.
Thus, for example, IF G is “moderate” AND PUA is “very low,” AND
EF is “low” THEN IPF is “low.” The IPF variable is activated if G is
“very good” AND PUA is “very low” or “low,” AND EF is “high."
The procedure to find the crisp value of the IPF variable and the
linguistic value to which this crisp value belongs is the same as
shown for the EF variable.
2.2.3. Step 3: adhesion degree to the PV technology and inhabitants'
feasibility for installing PV systems
The payback is one of the economic indicators that change in-
habitants' decision to install PV systems or not [10], i.e., their
adhesion degree to the PV technology. According to Villavicencio
et al. [34], for the year "j" of the planning horizon, the adhesion
degree of the PV technology (ADj ) can be calculated using (2):
 
ADj ¼ exp  0:3  tj ;
where, tj is the payback in the year jth year of a planning horizon.
Considering the adhesion degree mentioned above and the IPF
described in Step 2, inhabitants' feasibility for installing PV systems
(IF) is calculated. For the subarea "i" of an area of interest and the
year "j" of a planning horizon, the IF is calculated using (3).
IFi;j ¼ IPFi;j  ADj
2.2.4. Step 4: exploratory spatial data analysis
The exploratory spatial data analysis is performed to identify
how the IF value in a subarea, e.g., subarea i (IFi ), is influenced by
the IF values in neighboring subareas. Moran's scatterplot is used to
this end, where IF's normalized values in each subarea i
(MoranSTDi ) are localized in the abscissa. In contrast, the average of
their neighbors' normalized values ðMoranLAGi Þ are localized in the
ordinate. MoranSTDi and MoranLAGi are calculated using (4) and
Renewable Energy 181 (2022) 1188e1196
(5), respectively:
IFi  IF
MoranSTDi ¼ ; (4)
s
X
I
MoranLAGi ¼ uik MoranSTDi ; (5)
k¼1
where, IF and s are the mean and variance of IF in the area of in-
terest. “I" is the number of subareas of the area of interest and uik is
an element of the neighborhood matrix. This matrix is set so that
uik ¼ 1 if the subareas i and k shared a border and uik ¼ 0
otherwise.
Moran's scatter plot is divided into four quadrants: “high-high,”
“low-low,” “high-low” and “low-high,” where high values are
positive values whereas low values are negative values. Points in
the high-high category indicate subareas with high IF surrounded
by subareas with also high IF. Similarly, Points in the low-low
category indicate subareas with low IF surrounded by subareas
with also low IF. Points in the category low-high indicate subareas
with low IF surrounded by subareas with high IF. Points in the
category high-low indicate subareas with high IF surrounded by
subareas with low IF. Points in the high-high or low-low indicate
positive spatial autocorrelation. The other cases mean negative
spatial autocorrelation. The distance between MoranSTDi and
MoranLAGi is directly related to the IF value difference between the
subarea i and the mean of their neighbors.
2.2.5. Step 5: PV system adopters categorization
The PV system adopters (PVA) in subareas is estimated using the
fuzzification of the crisp values of IF, MoranSTD; and MoranLAG
described in Steps 3 and 4. The proposed methodology character-
izes the peer effects among inhabitants to adopt the PV technology
by considering MoranSTD; and MoranLAG. For this characterization,
the linguistic values considered for the aforementioned linguistic
variables are: IF ¼ (low, medium, high); MoranSTD ¼ (low, high,
significance 0.1); MoranLAG ¼ (low, high, significance 0.1) and
PVA ¼ (low, medium, high). The respective membership functions
are shown in Figs. 9e12. For each of these figures, the parameters
ak, bk, ck and dkðk ¼ 9; 10; 11; 12Þ are set based on knowledge of the
correspondent variable (IF, MoranSTD, MoranLAG; and PVA).
The membership functions of IF were elaborated, grouping their
values using the Jenks natural breaks classification [35]. This clas-
sifier seeks to generate data groups so that differences among data
(2) belonging to the same group will be minimum, and the difference
among groups will be maximum.
MoranSTD and MoranLAG membership functions are based on
the values of Moran's scatterplot. For the “low” linguistic value,
(3)
Fig. 9. Membership functions of IF variable.
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D. Marcochi de Melo, J. Villavicencio Gastelu, P.T.L. Asano et al.
Fig. 10. Membership functions of MoranSTD variable.
Fig. 11. Membership functions of MoranLAG variable.
Fig. 12. Membership functions of PVA variable.
negative values with statistical significance lower than 0.05 were
used to obtain the membership function decreasing region. Simi-
larly, for the “high” linguistic value, positive values with statistical
significance lower than 0.05 were used to obtain the membership
function increasing region. Additionally, an intermediate linguistic
Fig. 13. Spatial distribution of PV system adopters for the year 2017.
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Renewable Energy 181 (2022) 1188e1196
variable called “significance 0.100 is considered. This linguistic
variable represents the IF values with statistical significance higher
than 0.05 and lower than or equal to 0.1. This linguistic variable
intends to identify subareas that will have their values of IF un-
modified or slightly modified.
The set of fuzzification rules used during the determination of
the PVA variable are composed of “IF-THEN” statements together
with logic connector “AND.” The same logic described in the pre-
vious sections is followed. However, in this case, it is sought that the
linguistic value of IF in the subarea "i" will not change if the
MoranSTDi and MoranLAGi variables belong to the “low-low” or
“high-low” category, respectively. This is due to the fact that in the
above categories, the neighbors' low values mean small influence in
the subarea "i." On the other hand, in the “high-high” and “low-
high” categories, the neighbors' influence will change the linguistic
value of the IF variable to the next class.
The proposed method can be implemented using any SIG soft-
ware, provided it has the spatial analysis tool described in Step 4.
3. Application study
The proposed method was applied to estimate the PV system
adopters spatial distribution and its evolution over the years in a
Brazilian medium-scale city. The study area's socio-economic and
socio-demographic data were obtained at the census tract (sub-
area) level, totaling 301 subareas. The planning horizon is
comprised of the years 2017, 2018, and 2019.
The study area's average annual solar irradiation is 5.4 kW/m2/
day [36]. Therefore, for the estimation of PV adopters, this value can
be considered the same throughout the area.
The useable area percentage was estimated using statistical data
of owned houses' rooftop area reported in Ref. [37] and the
reduction factors mentioned in Section 2.1.
Economic indicators (VPL, IRR, payback, and LCOE) were ob-
tained after carrying out a financial analysis for each subarea of the
study city and each year of the planning horizon. The necessary
socio-economic data for this analysis is obtained from Ref. [37]. A
net-metering scheme tariff is considered, which has been the
Brazilian government's current incentive for grid-connected PV
systems since 2012 [2].
The proposed methodology was implemented using QGIS [38],
GeoDA [39], and the programming language Python [40]. QGIS and
GeoDA were used for spatial data processing and spatial data
analysis, respectively. Python programming language was used
within QGIS to automate the steps of the proposed methodology.
The above software was used because they are open-source.
Fig. 14. Spatial distribution of PV system adopters for the year 2018.
D. Marcochi de Melo, J. Villavicencio Gastelu, P.T.L. Asano et al. Renewable Energy 181 (2022) 1188e1196

Fig. 15. Spatial distribution of PV system adopters for the year 2019. Fig. 16. Spatial distribution of PV system adopters obtained using the PROP method-
ology and historical data of installed PV systems for the year 2019.

3.1. Spatiotemporal analysis of PV adopters

The categorization of the PV adopters obtained by the proposed

methodology in each year of the planning horizon is shown in
Figs. 13e15, respectively.
The spatial distribution of PV adopters is heterogeneous. Over-
all, the PV adopters in subareas located in the central zone is
categorized as high or medium. In contrast, the PV adopters in
subareas situated in the city's periphery is medium or low.
Comparing Figs. 13e15, it is observed that the PV adopters in some
subareas changes their category from low to medium or from
medium to high. These changes are observed mainly in subareas
located in the central zone. In the outskirts of the city, only a few
subareas change their PV adopters category; e.g., the subareas S1
and S2. A summary of the percentage of subareas in each type of PV
adopters for 2017, 2018, and 2019 is indicated in Table 1.
More significant changes among categories of PV adopters in Fig. 17. Spatial distribution of probabilities of installation of PV systems obtained using
subareas are noticed between 2017 and 2018. In this period, 11% the BAY methodology and historical data of installed PV systems for the year 2019.
more subareas present a high class of PV system adopters. In the
same period, the percentage of subareas presenting the medium
and low category lowered by 8.6% and 2.4%, respectively. However, This normalization is performed considering their respective
no substantial change is observed between 2018 and 2019, in which maximum values for the year 2019. The obtained values were
period changes on subareas' category are less than 1%. This last classified into five groups.
result can be a consequence of the increasing exchange rate in Besides the above probabilities, historical data of installed PV
Brazil in previous years. The maps presented in Figs. 13e15 can help systems are plotted on the maps obtained using the PROP and BAY
the planners of sustainable cities because those maps show the methodologies. Obtained maps are shown in Figs. 16 and 17,
regions where it is necessary to promote PV technology more respectively, where installed PV systems are represented using
widely. black-filled circles.
The estimations obtained from the BAY methodology match the
historical data of small subareas with a high number of PV systems;
3.2. Comparison results e.g., subarea S3. However, this characteristic is lost in the city's
outskirts, where a low number of PV systems were installed in
For comparison purposes, the installation probabilities of PV subareas. In some subareas of the boundary, the classification ob-
systems considered in Villavicencio et al. [15] are used. These tained by the proposed methodology matches the historical data
probabilities are estimated using a Hierarchical Bayesian Model better; e.g., subareas S4 and S5. Therefore, the proposed method is
(BAY). As these probabilities are numerical values, the comparison helpful in zones where PV adoption is at an early stage (at the
is performed considering PVA's crisp values obtained by the pro- bottom of the technology adoption life cycle [6]). Also, it becomes
posed (PROP) methodology. Because the probabilities and crisp an interesting methodology for the integrated planning of sus-
values mentioned above use different scales, they are normalized. tainable cities. For instance, it can direct the combined resources
planning to supply the users' demand locally. Furthermore, it can
Table 1
Percentage of subareas according to their categories of PV adopters. be used to identify where utilities should initialize their operation
planning studies considering the integration of PV systems.
PVA category Year

2017 2018 2019

4. Conclusion
high 8.3% 19.3% 19.7%
medium 41.7% 33.1% 33.1% A methodology for performing a spatiotemporal estimation of
Low 50.0% 47.6% 47.2%
the PV system adopters was presented. Factors as solar irradiation,
1194
D. Marcochi de Melo, J. Villavicencio Gastelu, P.T.L. Asano et al.
useable area on houses' rooftops, and economic indicators are
considered. In addition, peer effects among inhabitants to adopt the
PV technology are considered. As inhabitants' decision for installing
PV systems can show more linguistic values than just “yes” or “no,”
fuzzy logic is regarded within the proposed methodology. Another
method (the BAY methodology) and historical data of installed PV
systems are considered for comparison purposes. Finally, the pro-
posal results are shown through maps to facilitate identifying
subareas with high values of PV system adopters.
In applying the proposed methodology using information about
a Brazilian medium-scale city, we observe that the spatial distri-
bution of PV system adopters is heterogeneous, with central zone
subareas presenting a higher potential to install PV systems than
that in the city's outskirt subareas. The percentages of categorized
subareas as high for in the years 2017, 2018, 2019 are 8,3%, 19,3%,
19,7%, respectively. This percentages indicates that planners should
promote more PV technology in the study city, especially in its
outskirts. Furthermore, the temporal analysis allows identifying
subareas with a tendency towards high values of PV system
adopters. Therefore, results obtained using the proposed method
can be used in the integrated planning of sustainable cities and
provide information for planners to reach decarbonization targets.
Comparing the results obtained by the proposed methodology
and the BAY methodology, we observed that the PV adopters'
spatial distribution obtained by the proposed method better
matches the historical data in subareas with a low number of
installed PV systems. Therefore, the proposed method can help
distribution utilities identify subareas with consumers to install PV
systems in such areas.
Finally, the spatial influence of the inhabitants to adopt PV in its
early stages proved to be essential to characterize subjective factors
and improve the modeling of degree of adherence to PV technology
by the inhabitants.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Diego Marcochi de Melo: Conceptualization, Methodology,
Formal analysis, Writing e review & editing. Joel Villavicencio
Gastelu: Methodology, Writing e original draft, Writing e review &
editing. Patrícia T.L. Asano: Supervision, Funding acquisition. Joel
D. Melo: Writing e review & editing, Supervision.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing
financial interests or personal relationships that could have
appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgments
This study was financed by Coordenaç~ ao de Aperfeiçoamento de
Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brazil (CAPES) - Finance Code 001; by
~o Paulo Research Foundation - Brazil (FAPESP) under grants:
Sa
2015/21972-6, and 2019/00466-6; by Conselho Nacional de
Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnolo
gico - Brazil (CNPq) under
grant: 422044/2018-0; by Instituto Nacional de Cie ^ncia e Tecnolo-

trica - Brazil (INCT-INERGE); and by ENEL under
gia de Energia Ele
grant: APLPEE-00390-1062/2017 - P&D-00390-1083-2020_UFABC.
The authors also want to thank the National Council of Science
Technology and Technology Innovation - Peru (CONCYTEC) for the
access to papers published in international journals.
Special thanks to Mrs. Alessandra Cani Gonzalez Harmel and her
support with the final spelling and grammar review.
1195
Renewable Energy 181 (2022) 1188e1196
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