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Lecture 3 (Intro To Probability)
Lecture 3 (Intro To Probability)
Abdur Rasheed
Assistant Professor
Dow University of Health Sciences
Visiting Faculty-IoBM
Introduction to
Probability
Objectives
❖Basic definitions
❖Concepts of probability
❖ Types of events
❖Conditional probability
Experiment / Trial
Any well define action from which data(observation) can be
obtained is called an experiment or trial
Out come
A single result of an experiment is called an outcome
Example: when a coin is tossed a single result may be Head (H),
represents an outcome
Sample space
The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiments is
called the sample space and it is denoted by S
Example:
When a coin is tossed
S= { H, T}
When a die is rolled
S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Event
A sub set of a sample (Part of a sample space), denoted
by A, B, C, ….
Example: An experiment is conducted to study the smoking
habits in the students. For this purpose a random sample of 3
students is selected at random.
Sample space would be
S= { NNN SNN NSN NNS SNS SSN NSS SSS }
206
P( A) = = 0.41
502
The probability for O, B and AB are as follows:
226
P (O ) = = 0.45
502
50
P( B) = = 0.10
502
20
P ( AB ) = = 0.04
502
1 2 3 4 5 6
Events
0 P( E ) 1
The probability of an event that can not occur is zero
1) P(Ā) = 1 – P(A)
Professional B2 31 13 44
Technical B3 52 17 69
Clerical B4 9 22 31
100 55 155
Positions A1 A2
Female
Male
Managerial (B1) 8 3 11
Professional (B2) 31 13 44
Technical (B3) 52 17 69
Clerical (B4) 9 22 31
100 55 155
Professional (B2) 31 13 44
Technical (B3) 52 17 69
Clerical (B4) 9 22 31
100 55 155
P(employee is male and managerial) = P (B1 and A1) = P (B1 ∩A1)= 8/155= 0.051
P(employee is female and clerical) = P (A2 and B4) = P (A2∩ B4)= 22/155= 0.141
Positions A1 A2
Female
Male
Managerial (B1) 8 3 11
Professional (B2) 31 13 44
Technical (B3) 52 17 69
Clerical (B4) 9 22 31
100 55 155
Calculate
1. P(A ∪ C) =
2. P (B ∪ C) =
3. If A and B are mutually exclusive, P(A ∪ B)
According to Nielson Media Research, approximately 68% of all U.S.
households with television have cable. Seventy-five percent of all
U.S. households with television have two or more TV sets. Suppose
56% of all U.S. households with television have cable TV and two
more TV sets. A U.S. household with television is randomly selected.
P (A)= 0.68
P (B)= 0.75
P (A ∩ B)= 0.56
1. What is probability that the household has cable
TV or two or more TV sets? P(A ∪ B) = ?
P(A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) - P (A ∩ B)
P(A ∪ B) = 0.68 + 0.75 - 0.56 = 0.87
The probability of the household has cable TV or two or
more TV sets is 0.87
A= all U.S. households with television have cable
B= all U.S. households with television have two or more TV sets
P (A)= 0.68
P (B)= 0.75
P (A ∩ B)= 0.56
2. What is probability that the household has cable TV
or two or more TV sets but not both?
Event A or
P(A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) - P (A ∩ B) event B or both
events
Here we are interested in Event A or event B but not both
= P (A) + P (B) - P (A ∩ B) - P (A ∩ B)
= 0.68 + 0.75 - 0.56 – 0.56 = 0.31
The probability of the household has cable TV or two or
more TV sets but not both is 0.31
A= all U.S. households with television have cable
B= all U.S. households with television have two or more TV sets
P (A)= 0.68
P (B)= 0.75
P (A ∩ B)= 0.56
3. What is probability that the household has neither cable TV
nor two or more TV sets?
ഥ 0.32
P (A)=
ഥ)= 0.25
P (B
ഥ∩B
P (A ഥ)= 0.44
ഥ∪ B
P(A ഥ ) + P (B
ഥ ) = P (A ഥ∩ B
ഥ ) - P (A ഥ)
P(A ∪ B) = 0.32 + 0.25 - 0.44 = 0.13
The probability of the household has neither cable TV nor
two or more TV sets is 0.13
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
In many situation, we try to find the probability of an event
given that another event has occurred.
Due to the pre-condition, the probability alter.
E.g., if a person consumes chewing tobacco , he is in more risk
of having oral cancer than the person who does not consumes.
Here chances of cancer depend on chewing.
P ( A and B)
P ( A / B) =
P ( B)
Given Prob.
of
Positions A1 A2
Prob. ?
Female
Male
Managerial (B1) 8 3 11
Professional (B2) 31 13 44
Technical (B3) 52 17 69
Clerical (B4) 9 22 39
100 55 155
What is the probability that a employee is managerial given that
individual is female? P(Managerial/female) = ?
A coin is thrown 3 times .what is the probability that at least one head is
obtained?
Sol: Sample space = [HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT, HTT, TTT]
Total number of ways = 8. Fav. Cases = 7
P (A) = 7/8
Questions
A die is rolled, and a coin is tossed, find the probability that the die shows an odd
number, and the coin shows a head.
Let H be the head and T be the tail of the coin. The sample space S of the
experiment described in question 5 is as follows
S = { (1,H),(2,H),(3,H),(4,H),(5,H),(6,H)
(1,T),(2,T),(3,T),(4,T),(5,T),(6,T)}
Let E be the event "the die shows an odd number, and the coin shows a head".
Event E may be described as follows
E={(1,H),(3,H),(5,H)}
P(E) = 3 / 12 = 1 / 4
Questions