Ecological Indicators 129 (2021) 108029

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Ecological Indicators
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolind

Analysis of vegetation dynamics in the Qinling-Daba Mountains region

from MODIS time series data
Yan Bai a, b, c, *
a
State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101,
China
b
National Earth System Science Data Center, National Science and Technology Infrastructure of China, Beijing 100101, China
c
Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The Qinling-Daba Mountains region (Qinba) is an important geographical transitional zone across the north and
Vegetation indices south of China. To comprehensively understand the ecological transition in the Qinba over past two decades, this
Spatiotemporal variation study assessed and predicted the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation comparatively, using 250-m time series
Trend analysis
MODIS NDVI and EVI products. From 2000 to 2019, remarkable increases were observed both in annual and
Vegetation types
MODIS
seasonal NDVI and EVI (P < 0.05), and the increasing rate of NDVI was higher than that of EVI for all temporal
Qinling-Daba Mountains region scales, except summer. Compared to NDVI, larger areas of no significant change were obtained in annual,
autumn, and winter EVI, primarily distributed in the high-altitude regions of western Qinba. All assessed
vegetation types increased significantly during past two decades except alpine vegetation and marsh, however,
the seasons in which the significant increase in NDVI and EVI occurred varied for different vegetation types.
Hurst exponent analysis suggested that inconsistent characteristics of vegetation dynamic trends were stronger in
the future across Qinba. The area proportion of unfavorable trends, identified mainly covered with cultivated
vegetation and scrub, was much larger than that of favorable trends, especially detected by EVI. Areas likely to
experience vegetation variation of unfavorable and undetermined trends deserve high focus.

1. Introduction strongly reflective in the near-infrared band (Tucker, 1979). VI is a

As a key component of terrestrial ecosystems, vegetation plays an
irreplaceable role in regulating global material cycle and energy ex­
change (Law et al., 2002; Piao and Fang, 2003). Spatiotemporal varia­
tion is prominent characteristics of vegetation, which is an important
proxy for terrestrial biochemical processes (Piao et al., 2011). Moni­
toring vegetation dynamics systematically is essential for a better un­
derstanding of biochemical processes and their potential feedbacks to
the climate system (Arneth et al., 2010), thereby enhancing the ability to
predict, mitigate and adapt to future climate change (Sitch et al., 2008;
Zhang et al., 2017; Zhao et al., 2017). Remote sensing is regarded as an
effective approach to monitor such dynamics on a large scale, with good
global coverage, long time series and high spatial–temporal resolution
availability. Vegetation index (VI) is spectral transformations of two or
more bands derived from remote sensing data (Huete et al., 2002), and
its basic optical characteristics are highly absorptive in the red band but
robust and simple measure in characterizing vegetation photosynthetic
activity and canopy structural variation.
Amongst the numerous VIs developed over past several decades, one
of the most widely used is the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
(NDVI) (Tucker and Sellers, 1986). The longest time series NDVI data
since July 1981 was generated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA
AVHRR) sensor (Beck et al., 2011), including PAL (Pathfinder AVHRR
Land) (El Saleous et al., 2000; James and Kalluri, 1994), GIMMS (Global
Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies) (Pinzon and Tucker, 2014),
LTDR (Land Long Term Data Record) (Pedelty et al., 2007), and FASIR
(Fourier-Adjustment, Solar zenith angle corrected, Interpolated Recon­
structed). Subsequently, several NDVI datasets have been produced
based on newer sensors, such as SPOT-VGT (Système Pour l’Observation
de la Terre VEGETATION) (Maisongrande et al., 2004), MODIS (MOD­
erate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) (Huete et al., 2002), and

* Address: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS,
Beijing 100101, China.
E-mail address: baiy@lreis.ac.cn.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108029
Received 15 November 2020; Received in revised form 21 July 2021; Accepted 22 July 2021
Available online 26 July 2021
1470-160X/© 2021 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Y. Bai
Fig. 1. Location of the study area.
VIP3 (Vegetation Index and Phenology version 3) constructed by
combining long serial of LTDR AVHRR and MODIS NDVI datasets
(Marshall et al., 2016). These NDVI data sets have been extensively
applied in vegetation analysis, for example, investigating vegetation-
climate interactions (Ichii et al., 2002; Nanzad et al., 2019), modeling
global carbon balance (Cao and Woodward, 1998; Potter, 1999),
detecting long-term vegetation phenology dynamics (Kern et al., 2020;
Piedallu et al., 2019; Testa et al., 2018; Tucker et al., 2001), and
assessing vegetation functional characteristics (Berry and Roderick,
2002; Lu et al., 2003). However, in addition to MODIS, all above-
mentioned multi-sensor system based NDVI datasets had been
observed to introduce substantial uncertainties and artifacts in vegeta­
tion trend analysis, suffered from sensor shifts and differences between
platforms (Scheftic et al., 2014; Tarnavsky et al., 2008; Tian et al., 2015;
Zhang et al., 2017).
MODIS VI products acquired from two satellites, i.e., Terra and Aqua,
are based on a single sensor and therefore do not affected by sensor shifts
(Tian et al., 2015). MODIS VI is produced globally using the advanced
navigation systems and improved radiometric sensitivity based on
atmospherically corrected spectral bands (Huete et al., 2002). MODIS
NDVI is therefore considered to be superior to AVHRR NDVI (Fensholt
and Proud, 2012; Justice et al., 1998). Another commonly used MODIS
VI is the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), designed to further reduce
residual atmospheric and soil background contamination by increasing
sensitivity to high biomass areas (Huete et al., 2002), while NDVI is
more saturated and chlorophyll-sensitive in densely vegetated condi­
tions (Wardlow et al., 2007). These two complementary MODIS VI
products provide an excellent opportunity to monitor and evaluate the
spatiotemporal variations of vegetation at different scales (Tian et al.,
2015).
The Qinling-Daba Mountains region (Qinba), recognized as an
essential geological and geographical transitional zone across the north
and south of China (Zhang, 2019), is endowed with multi-dimensional
zonal structures, high degree of environmental complexity (Shi et al.,
2019), biological diversity (Feng et al., 2017), and climatic sensitivity
(Shao et al., 2019). In addition, as an ecologically vulnerable area, the
structure and function of ecosystem in the Qinba is inevitably affected
by global change (Walther et al., 2002). Therefore, long-term moni­
toring and evaluation of the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation is of
great importance to ecological security and regional sustainable devel­
opment in the Qinba. In recent years, many studies have investigated the
spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation over Qinba using the multi-
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Ecological Indicators 129 (2021) 108029
temporal NDVI data, such as the vegetation dynamic trends based on
SPOT VGT NDVI in the Daba mountains (Ren et al., 2012), and MODIS
NDVI in the Qinling mountains (Deng et al., 2018) or in partial regions
of the Qinba (Cui et al., 2012; Liu et al., 2015; Wang et al., 2020);
vegetation variations based on both GIMMS NDVI and SPOT-VGT NDVI
and their response to regional climate change in the northern and
southern regions of Qingling Mountains (Sun, 2010), and in the Qinba of
Shaanxi province (Luo, 2009); the spatial–temporal changes of vegeta­
tion in the Qinba using GIMMS3g, SPOT VGT and MODIS NDVI
comparatively (Chen et al., 2019). The results of existing studies indi­
cate that in recent decades, the NDVI in the Qinba increased generally,
especially after the implementation of Grain to Green Project (GTGP)
(Qian et al., 2019), the national ecological recovery plan implemented
by the Chinese government since 1999 (Cao et al., 2009; Xu et al., 2004).
Previous studies monitoring vegetation dynamics in the Qinba have
been carried out solely on NDVI that most primarily derived from
different sensors. However, inconsistency or uncertainties for vegetation
analysis based on NDVI obtained from different sensors have been found
as described above. Meanwhile, spatiotemporal variations within
different vegetation types, and the consistency of vegetation dynamic
trends in the future have rarely been reported in this region. The aims of
this study are to perform a comprehensive and comparative assessment
of multi-temporal (i.e., annual and seasonal) vegetation variations in the
Qinba from 2000 to 2019, to predict vegetation dynamic trends in the
future, and further to analyze the dynamics in different vegetation types,
using both MODIS NDVI and EVI.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study area
Located between 102◦ 21′ E-113◦ 40′ E and 30◦ 43′ N-35◦ 29′ N in
central China, the Qinba covers approximately 300,000 km2 across
Shaanxi, Gansu, Henan, Hubei, Sichuan and Chongqing (Fig. 1). The
terrain of the Qinba is dominated by numerous mountains, valleys, ba­
sins and plains, including the Qinling Mountains, Daba Mountains,
Funiu Mountains, Micang Mountains, and Hanjiang River Valley Basin,
which gradually rises from east to west. Average elevation in the eastern
Qinba is about 400 m, dominated by plains and hills, while in the west it
is primarily high altitude, with an average elevation of 1600 m (Shao
et al., 2019). Vegetation types in this region show obvious transitional
characteristics from north to south distribution (Zhao et al., 2019). In
Y. Bai
Fig. 2. Spatial distribution of vegetation types in the Qinba.
Fig. 3. Comparison of annual variations of average NDVI and EVI in the Qinba
from 2000 to 2019.
the Qinling Mountains, the north slope is dominated by warm temperate
deciduous broad-leaved forests, and the south slope is characterized by
deciduous broad-leaved forests mixed with evergreen species. In the
Daba Mountains, vegetation in the north slope is similar to that of the
south slope of the Qinling Mountains, and typical evergreen broadleaf
forests are found in the south slope (Ren and Li, 2003).
2.2. Data description and processing
2.2.1. MODIS vegetation indices data
The 16-day 250-m MODIS vegetation indices product (MOD13Q1
V006) is downloaded from NASA’s Earth Observing System Data and
Information System (https://earthdata.nasa.gov), covering the period
from February 2000 to December 2019, and two tiles (h26v05 and
h27v05) are required for the Qinba. Using MODIS Reprojection Tool, the
sinusoidal projection and the original HDF format of MOD13Q1 are
transformed into the Albers projection with WGS84 datum and Geotiff
format separately, and are resampled at 250 m resolution employing the
nearest neighbor method. Monthly NDVI and EVI data for the period
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Ecological Indicators 129 (2021) 108029
2000–2019 are produced using the maximum value composite (MVC)
technique. Owing to the absence of MODIS VI data in January 2000, the
average values of NDVI and EVI for January 2001–2019 are taken as the
corresponding values of NDVI and EVI for the missing data. The annual
average NDVI and EVI are defined as the average monthly NDVI and EVI
from January to December. Further, average monthly composite NDVI
and EVI from March to May, June to August, September to November,
and December to February are defined as spring, summer, autumn, and
winter NDVI and EVI, respectively.
2.2.2. Vegetation data
The digitized vegetation map of China at a 1:1,000,000 scale is ac­
quired from the National Earth System Science Data Center of China
(www.geodata.cn). Vegetation types in the Qinba are classified into
needleleaf forest (12.63%, area percent, the same as below), broadleaf
forest (24.0%), mixed forest (0.53%), scrub (22.42%), cultivated vege­
tation (28.0%), meadow (5.66%), steppe (0.49%), grassland (5.58%),
alpine vegetation (0.1%), and marsh (0.02%); while water body (0.55%,
mainly lakes) and no vegetation (0.01%, including bare rock and
glacier) are also mapped (Fig. 2). In this study, except for water body
and no vegetation, variations of other ten vegetation types are assessed.
2.2.3. Elevation data
Elevation data with 30 m resolution is obtained from SRTM DEM
(Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model), available
at http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org/srtmdata/. The elevation in the Qinba is
shown in Fig. 1.
2.3. Linear regression analysis
Using the least-squares-based linear regression method, the dynamic
trend of vegetation in the NDVI and EVI time series is detected, where
the slope of linear regression is the index of vegetation dynamics during
the study period (Peng et al., 2012). The slope is calculated as follows:
∑ ( ∑n )( ∑n )
n × nt=1 t × VIt − t=1 t t=1 VIt
Slope = ∑ ( ∑n )2 (1)
n × nt=1 t2 − t=1 t
where n is the time series, t is the serial year number (1 to n), and VIt is
the NDVI or EVI value in year t. When Slope > 0, an increasing dynamic
trend in vegetation is implied, and when Slope < 0, a decreasing dynamic
trend in vegetation is referred. Significance of vegetation dynamic trend
is performed using the F test. If the Slope passes through the significance
Y. Bai Ecological Indicators 129 (2021) 108029

Fig. 4. Comparison of seasonal variations in (a) spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, and (d) winter across the Qinba from 2000 to 2019.

Table 1
Annual and seasonal NDVI and EVI variations for different vegetation types in the Qinba from 2000 to 2019 (yr− 1).
Temporal Vegetation types Slope of NDVI Slope of EVI Vegetation types Slope of NDVI Slope of EVI

Annual Needleleaf forest 0.41%** 0.26%** Grassland 0.57%** 0.40%**

Broadleaf forest 0.45%** 0.35%** Alpine vegetation 0.15% 0.10%
Mixed forest 0.46%** 0.29%** Scrub 0.45%** 0.32%**
Meadow 0.36%** 0.22%** Cultivated vegetation 0.57%** 0.37%**
Steppe 0.67%** 0.40%** Marsh 0.18%* 0.11%
Spring Needleleaf forest 0.54%* 0.33%* Grassland 0.72%* 0.53%*
Broadleaf forest 0.57%* 0.41%* Alpine vegetation 0.12% 0.11%
Mixed forest 0.62%* 0.38%* Scrub 0.57%* 0.40%*
Meadow 0.45%* 0.26%* Cultivated vegetation 0.62%* 0.41%*
Steppe 0.71%* 0.37%* Marsh 0.24% 0.09%
Summer Needleleaf forest 0.29%* 0.38%** Grassland 0.52%** 0.59%**
Broadleaf forest 0.36%** 0.51%** Alpine vegetation 0.21% 0.14%
Mixed forest 0.37%** 0.41%* Scrub 0.36%** 0.46%**
Meadow 0.29%* 0.33%* Cultivated vegetation 0.60%** 0.55%**
Steppe 0.84%** 0.70%** Marsh 0.23% 0.22%
Autumn Needleleaf forest 0.33%* 0.18% Grassland 0.47%* 0.31%
Broadleaf forest 0.40%* 0.30%* Alpine vegetation 0.10% 0.04%
Mixed forest 0.35%* 0.21%* Scrub 0.38%* 0.27%*
Meadow 0.29% 0.16% Cultivated vegetation 0.55%** 0.33%*
Steppe 0.70%** 0.37%* Marsh 0.06% 0.04%
Winter Needleleaf forest 0.50%* 0.16%** Grassland 0.57%* 0.16%*
Broadleaf forest 0.48%* 0.16%* Alpine vegetation 0.12% 0.10%
Mixed forest 0.50%* 0.15%** Scrub 0.49%* 0.16%*
Meadow 0.40%* 0.15%* Cultivated vegetation 0.50%* 0.17%*
Steppe 0.43%* 0.16%* Marsh 0.17% 0.08%

Note: * and ** represent significant at P < 0.05 and P < 0.01, respectively.

test with P < 0.05, the time series dynamic trend in vegetation is
significant.
2.4. Hurst exponent analysis
The Hurst exponent is a classical measure to assess dynamic consis­
tency or persistence of time series data, and is widely used in clima­
tology, hydrology, economics and vegetation research (Hurst, 1951). R/
S analysis is the most famous method proposed by Mandelbrot and
Wallis to estimate the Hurst exponent (Mandelbrot and Wallis, 1969),
and the procedures are:
Divide the time series τ = 1, 2, …, n) into τ sub series X(i), and for
each sub series i = 1, 2, … , τ.
Define the mean sequence of long time series,

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Y. Bai Ecological Indicators 129 (2021) 108029

Fig. 5. Comparison of spatial distribution in annual and seasonal average (a) NDVI, (b) EVI, and (c) difference between them (NDVI minus EVI) in the Qinba from
2000 to 2019.

Fig. 6. Distribution of average NDVI and EVI at different altitudes in the Qinba during 2000–2019.

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Y. Bai Ecological Indicators 129 (2021) 108029

Table 2 the largest EVI increase was in summer (0.49%), which was slightly
Area proportion (AP, %) of dynamic trends in annual and seasonal NDVI and EVI higher than NDVI increase (0.42%) (Fig. 4). Also, the increasing trend of
over the Qinba from 2000 to 2019. NDVI and EVI was distinctly different in winter.
Dynamic trends Annual Spring Summer Autumn Winter Table 1 shows the annual and seasonal variations in NDVI and EVI
AP in NDVI
for different vegetation types in the Qinba comparatively. The annual
Extremely significant 0.55 0.48 0.44 0.34 0.49 NDVI and EVI both increased significantly for all vegetation types
decrease analyzed except alpine vegetation and marsh, in that annual NDVI
Significant decrease 0.29 0.36 0.33 0.31 0.40 showed significant increasing trend for marsh (P < 0.05) but no signif­
No significant change 11.36 24.54 31.49 35.18 22.75
icant change for alpine vegetation, while annual EVI showed no signif­
Significant increase 5.99 14.32 10.20 14.25 10.60
Extremely significant 81.82 60.30 57.54 49.92 65.76 icant trend for the two types with P > 0.05. In spring, summer, and
increase winter, significant NDVI and EVI increase were also found for other
eight vegetation types except alpine vegetation and marsh. In autumn,
AP in EVI
Extremely significant 0.59 0.59 0.46 0.39 0.71 coupled with alpine vegetation and marsh, there were no significant
decrease trend in both NDVI and EVI for meadow; however, discrepancies of
Significant decrease 0.32 0.43 0.33 0.49 0.63 dynamic trends in NDVI and EVI for needleleaf forest and grassland were
No significant change 16.30 35.99 31.67 49.91 43.31
pronounced, that is, NDVI of them increased significantly but EVI did
Significant increase 8.89 16.96 14.54 15.86 16.01
Extremely significant 73.90 46.04 53.00 33.35 39.34
not. The increasing rates for different vegetation types in NDVI were
increase higher than those in EVI at all temporal scales except summer, in which
the significant increase in EVI for needleleaf forest, broadleaf forest,
mixed forest, meadow, grassland, and scrub was higher than that in
1∑ NDVI.
τ
VI(τ) = X(i), τ = 1, 2, ..., n (2)
τ i=1
3.2. Spatial differences in vegetation dynamics
Calculate the cumulative deviation,
τ (
∑ ) The average annual and seasonal NDVI and EVI presented the spatial
X(i, τ) = VI(i) − VI(τ) , 1⩽i⩽τ (3) pattern of high in the middle and low in the surroundings across the
i=1
Qinba (Fig. 5). In general, the NDVI and EVI values were high mainly in
Create the range sequence of R, the mountainous areas of Taibai, Micang, Daba, Funiu, Xuebaoding, and
R(τ) = maxX(i, τ) − min X(i, τ) (4) Shennongjia, but low in the regions of western Qinling, such as the
1⩽i⩽τ 1⩽i⩽τ county of Wudu, Xihe, Lixian, Minxian, Wushan, and Gangu of Tianshui
Create the standard deviation sequence S, in the northeast, and Songpan in the northwest. In above-mentioned
mountainous area, where the vegetation cover was dominated by
[ ]1/2
τ
1∑ extensive forests (Fig. 2), including deciduous and evergreen broadleaf
S(τ) = (VI(i) − VI(τ))2 (5) forest, and warm temperate conifer broadleaf forest, the average NDVI
τ
and EVI values were>0.5 and 0.3, respectively. Located at high altitude,
i=1

Calculate the Hurst exponent, the western area primarily comprised alpine sparse vegetation, scrub,
grassland, and meadow, showed low NDVI and EVI values<0.3 and 0.2,
R(τ)
= (cτ)H (6) respectively. The central Hanzhong Basin and northeast of the study
S(τ)
area were mainly covered by cultivated vegetation (Fig. 2), the NDVI
and EVI in these areas therefore were relatively low compared to those
where H is the value of Hurst exponent, obtained by the least squares fit:
of forests, clustering between 0.35 and 0.5 of NDVI, and between 0.25
log(R/S)n = log c + H × log(n).
and 0.3 of EVI. Fig. 5 also demonstrates the remarkable spatial distri­
The value of H ranges from 0 to 1. When H = 0.5, the NDVI or EVI
bution differences for the average NDVI and EVI at different seasons.
time series is a stochastic sequence with inconsistency. When H > 0.5,
The maximum difference between NDVI and EVI (NDVI minus EVI) was
the sequence is persistent, referring to a consistent trend of future time
found in winter (i.e., 0.703) during the study period, followed by
series, with higher value for the more consistency. When H < 0.5, the
autumn (0.682), spring (0.561), and summer (0.530), and the maximum
sequence is anti-persistent, indicating an inconsistent trend of future
difference occurred in annual NDVI and EVI was 0.58. Spatially, the
time series, with smaller value for the more inconsistency.
distinct differences between NDVI and EVI at multi-temporal scales were
primarily distributed in the western Qinling, mostly with the altitude
3. Results
higher than 3200 m (Fig. 1).
With respect to altitude (Fig. 6), NDVI and EVI ere relatively low
3.1. Temporal differences in vegetation dynamics
below 500 m and then gradually increased, peaking at 1300–1400 m.
NDVI and EVI experienced sharp declines at 3200 m and 3600 m,
Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 demonstrate the annual and seasonal variations of
respectively, this may be related to the sparse vegetation distribution in
NDVI and EVI in the Qinba, respectively. From 2000 to 2019, an overall
the high altitude areas, which were mostly meadow and scrub (Fig. 1
significant increase with some volatility was found. NDVI increased
and Fig. 2) (Liu et al., 2015).
significantly (P < 0.01) at a rate of 0.48% yr− 1, 0.58% yr− 1, 0.42% yr− 1,
The linear regression analysis and F test were applied on pixel by
0.42% yr− 1, and 0.49% yr− 1 in the annual scale, spring, summer,
pixel basis, and the results were classified into following categories: (i)
autumn, and winter, respectively. Compared with NDVI, the average
extremely significant decrease (Slope < 0, P < 0.01), (ii) significant
increase in EVI with P < 0.05 was 0.33% yr− 1, 0.40% yr− 1, 0.49% yr− 1,
decrease (Slope < 0, 0.01 < P < 0.05), (iii) no significant change (P >
0.28% yr− 1, and 0.16% yr− 1 for the annual scale, spring, summer,
0.05), (iv) significant increase (Slope > 0, 0.01 < P < 0.05), and (v)
autumn, and winter, respectively. In details, the annual average NDVI
extremely significant increase (Slope > 0, P < 0.01). Dramatic differ­
and EVI reached a peak in 2018 and a trough in 2001, an obvious in­
ences in annual trends of NDVI and EVI during 2000–2019 in the Qinba
crease in 2009 and sharp decreases in 2010 and 2017 were also observed
were found. In general, 87.8% and 82.8% of the entire region showed
(Fig. 3). The largest increase in the magnitude of NDVI was in spring
significant increasing trends (P < 0.05) in annual NDVI and EVI,
(0.58%), and was higher than that of EVI in this season (0.40%); while
respectively. Compared with NDVI (11.4% of entire region, Table 2),

6
Y. Bai
Fig. 7. Spatial patterns of trends in annual and seasonal NDVI and EVI in the Qinba from 2000 to 2019.
annual EVI exhibited larger no significant change areas (16.3%), espe­
cially in the high-altitude areas of western Qinba (i.e. the Tibetan
Autonomous Prefecture of Gannan and the Tibetan and Qiang Autono­
mous Prefecture of Aba) and southeast of Tianshui city (Fig. 7). The
regions with significant and extremely significant decreasing trends in
annual EVI (P < 0.05) were basically consistent (0.91%) with that based
on NDVI (0.84%), mainly concentrated in a few areas in the southwest of
the Qinba (such as the junction of northern Chengdu and northern
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Ecological Indicators 129 (2021) 108029
Deyang), and scattered in Hanzhong Basin and the western edge of
Nanyang.
The sum area ratio of significant and extremely significant increasing
trends in summer NDVI (i.e. 67.7%) and EVI (67.5%) were identical, but
were quite different in other three seasons (Table 2). Spring, autumn and
winter NDVI showed increasing trends with P < 0.05 over 74.6%,
64.2%, and 76.4% of the total area, respectively, higher than the EVI in
corresponding seasons (i.e. 63.0%, 49.2%, and 55.4%, respectively).
Y. Bai
Fig. 8. Area proportion (%) of annual (a) NDVI and (b) EVI trends for different vegetation types in the Qinba from 2000 to 2019.
Compared to NDVI (i.e. 35.2% and 22.8%), autumn and winter EVI
exhibited much larger no significant change areas with P > 0.05 (i.e.
49.9% and 43.3%), mainly expanded to the surrounding areas with
western Qinling, Hanzhong and Ankang city as the center (Fig. 7).
Differences of annual NDVI and EVI variation trends in terms of
various vegetation types are presented in Fig. 8. Except for alpine
vegetation, the area with no significant change in annual EVI was larger
than that with no significant change in NDVI for other vegetation types,
whereas the area with extremely significant increase in EVI was smaller
than that with the same trend in NDVI. It is also worth noting that annual
NDVI and EVI showed similar dynamic trends for steppe, grassland,
cultivated vegetation, and marsh. Among all vegetation types, the
highest area ratio of increased trend was occurred in steppe, with about
96.2% significant and extremely significant increase in annual NDVI,
and with about 93.7% significant and extremely significant increase in
annual EVI, followed by grassland, cultivated vegetation, broadleaf
forest, mixed forest, and scrub.
3.3. Consistency of vegetation dynamics
Based on the Hurst exponent (H) analysis, the anti-persistent char­
acteristics of the vegetation dynamic trends in both annual NDVI and
EVI were stronger than the persistent characteristics in the Qinba
(Fig. 9), which is in accordance with the findings reported in Liu et al.
(Liu et al., 2015; Liu et al., 2016). A much larger anti-persistent or
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Ecological Indicators 129 (2021) 108029
inconsistent trend (H < 0.5) was observed in annual EVI (i.e. 73.2% of
total area, Fig. 10(b)) compared with annual NDVI (i.e. 63.9%, Fig. 10
(a)). Among them, only 2.7% and 3.7% of the study area exhibited high
inconsistency trend (H < 0.3) in terms of NDVI and EVI, respectively,
while a low inconsistency trend (0.3 < H < 0.5) was predicted in most of
the Qinba (61.2% and 69.5% in annual NDVI and EVI, respectively).
Areas with consistent trend (H > 0.5) in both NDVI and EVI primarily
located in the regions of Shaanxi province, especially in the central
Hanzhong and Taibai mountainous areas (i.e., Zhouzhi, NingShan,
Zhen’an, Taibai, and Fengxian), and distributed in (i) the junction of
southwest of Tianshui and north of Longnan, as well as at the north­
western edge of the study area in Gansu province (Weiyuan and Kangle),
(ii) the southwestern border of the study area in Sichuan province such
as Pengzhou, Mianzhu, and Anxian, (iii) the peripheral regions of Shiyan
and the southeastern border of study area in Hubei province, and (iv) the
western edge of Pingdingshan in Henan province (Fig. 9).
3.4. Future trends of vegetation dynamics
To further reveal the future pattern of vegetation variations in the
Qinba, the Hurst exponent were superimposed with trend analysis re­
sults based on linear regression and F test to obtain coupling informa­
tion. The coupling results suggested that the unfavorable trends of both
NDVI and EVI was more common than the favorable trends (Fig. 11),
and the unfavorable trends were identified mainly in the areas with
Y. Bai Ecological Indicators 129 (2021) 108029

Fig. 9. Consistency of annual (a) NDVI and (b) EVI time series trends in the Qinba based on Hurst exponent.

Fig. 10. Consistent trends of annual (a) NDVI and (b) EVI in the Qinba.

cultivated vegetation and scrub throughout Qinba (Fig. 2). Compared
with NDVI, EVI exhibited even larger areas with unfavorable trends
(Table 3). On the contrary, areas with favorable trends of NDVI
accounted for totally 31.0% of the Qinba, while totally 21.4% showed
favorable trends in EVI. Moreover, 7.0% and 11.5% of the entire area
detected by NDVI and EVI respectively were difficult to determine,
including combinations of random and significant decrease/increase,
random and no significant change, inconsistent and no significant
change, etc. Undetermined variations were concentrated in the regions
of western Qinling with high altitudes, southeast of Tianshui, central
Hanzhong and eastern Luoyang, which needs to be taken seriously.
4. Discussion
Our results based on multi-temporal MODIS vegetation indices
indicated that vegetation had an overall significant increasing trends in
the Qinba from 2000 to 2019 (Fig. 3 and Fig. 7). Similar vegetation
dynamic trend has been demonstrated in the previous studies based on
annual NDVI (Chen et al., 2019; Cui et al., 2012; Deng et al., 2018; Luo,
2009), but it is not completely consistent to the results of Liu et al (Liu
et al., 2016), in which a decreasing trend of annual NDVI was detected
after 2010. Moreover, the increasing rate of NDVI was higher than that
of EVI at annual and seasonal scales except in summer (Fig. 3 and Fig. 4).
This may be attributed to different radiometric and biophysical perfor­
mances of NDVI and EVI (Huete et al., 2002). To further investigate the

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Fig. 11. Spatial pattern of future trends in annual (a) NDVI, and (b) EVI over the Qinba.

Table 3 Table 4
Area proportion (AP, %) of future trends in annual NDVI and EVI based on slope Statistics on annual NDVI and EVI in 2001, 2007, 2013, and 2018 across Qinba.
with significance and Hurst exponent over the Qinba. Year Vegetation Index Min-Max Mean STD CV
Future trends AP in NDVI AP in EVI
2001 NDVI 0.300–0.844 0.544 0.095 0.175
Favorable EVI 0.300–0.540 0.342 0.029 0.085
Consistent (H > 0.5) & Extremely significant increase 28.64 18.67 2007 NDVI 0.300–0.867 0.595 0.098 0.165
Consistent (H > 0.5) & Significant increase 2.20 2.48 EVI 0.300–0.615 0.364 0.038 0.105
Inconsistent (H < 0.5) & Extremely significant decrease 0.09 0.15 2013 NDVI 0.300–0.876 0.615 0.107 0.174
Inconsistent (H < 0.5) & Significant decrease 0.06 0.11 EVI 0.300–0.613 0.386 0.045 0.117
2018 NDVI 0.300–0.896 0.642 0.102 0.159
Unfavorable EVI 0.300–0.651 0.393 0.049 0.125
Consistent (H > 0.5) & Extremely significant decrease 0.45 0.43
Consistent (H > 0.5) & Significant decrease 0.22 0.19
Inconsistent (H < 0.5) & Extremely significant increase 53.09 55.13
Inconsistent (H < 0.5) & Significant increase 3.77 6.37 Table 5
Invariable Statistics on inter-annual NDVI and EVI (May to October) in 2019 across Qinba.
Consistent (H > 0.5) & No significant change 4.54 4.95 Month Vegetation Index Min-Max Mean STD CV
Undetermined 6.95 11.51 May NDVI 0.300–1.000 0.743 0.146 0.197
EVI 0.300–1.000 0.520 0.115 0.222
June NDVI 0.300–1.000 0.782 0.128 0.164
sensitivity to canopy variations between this two MODIS vegetation EVI 0.300–1.000 0.567 0.121 0.213
indices comparatively in the Qinba at annual and inter-annual scales, July NDVI 0.300–1.000 0.833 0.103 0.124
data of NDVI and EVI values>0.3 in 2001, 2007, 2013, 2018, and from EVI 0.300–1.000 0.594 0.109 0.184
August NDVI 0.300–0.999 0.832 0.094 0.113
May to October 2019 were selected, and four indicators including the EVI 0.300–1.000 0.579 0.095 0.164
range of minimum and maximum (Min-Max), mean value (Mean), the September NDVI 0.300–0.999 0.790 0.113 0.143
standard deviation (STD), and the coefficient of variation (CV) were EVI 0.300–1.000 0.489 0.097 0.199
calculated. Results showed that the value range of annual NDVI was October NDVI 0.300–0.999 0.700 0.123 0.175
EVI 0.300–1.000 0.409 0.074 0.181
larger than that of EVI, and the STD and CV of NDVI were higher than
EVI too, which suggested that there was no supersaturation in annual
NDVI across the Qinba (Table 4). However, both the STD and CV of EVI

10
Y. Bai
Fig. 12. Differences between average annual NDVI and EVI for different vegetation types.
were higher than that of NDVI in July and August 2019 over the Qinba
(Table 5). That is, EVI was more sensitive than NDVI in the growing peak
season and can better reflect the vegetation condition. Similar results
have also been found by Li et al. in Zoigê (Li et al., 2018) and Ye et al.
along the Yangtze River Basin in Anhui Province (Ye et al., 2012).
Although annual NDVI and EVI of all assessed vegetation types in the
Qinba increased significantly during 2000–2019 except alpine vegeta­
tion and marsh, the increasing rate for each type in NDVI was higher
than that in EVI (Table 1). The average annual NDVI of each type was
always larger than EVI. The largest difference of NDVI and EVI in this
study was observed in needleleaf forest, followed by mixed forest,
broadleaf forest, grassland, scrub, cultivated vegetation, meadow,
marsh, steppe, and alpine vegetation successively (Fig. 12). In general,
the higher the vegetation coverage, the greater the difference between
them. What’s more, the seasons in which the significant increase in
NDVI and EVI occurred varied for different vegetation types. In terms of
forests (needeleaf, broadleaf, mixed), scrub, meadow and grassland, the
NDVI increases mainly happened in spring and winter, while the EVI
increases occurred in spring and summer. Increases in cultivated vege­
tation NDVI and EVI principally happened in spring and summer, while
increases in steppe NDVI and EVI primarily occurred in summer
(Table 1).
Over 82% of the entire region showed significant increasing trends in
annual MODIS NDVI and EVI during the study period (Fig. 7 and
Table 2). We believe that human activities have been one of major
driving forces as previously studies suggested (Chen et al., 2019; Deng
et al., 2018; Liu et al., 2016). For example, under various modes of
restoration (i.e. afforestation of farmland and degraded land, cultivation
of fruit tree plantations, and conservation of natural forest), the largest
ecological protection and restoration program GTGP has led to an area
of 29.1 × 106 ha of afforestation in 25 provinces of China (NFGA,
1999–2018), and approximately 10% of the total area were afforested in
the Qinba (He et al., 2012). In the recent two decades, GTGP has played
a positive effect in vegetation restoration across the Qinba (Deng et al.,
2018; He et al., 2012). However, owing to the limited long-term vege­
tation data, impacts of vegetation type changes caused by natural and
11
Ecological Indicators 129 (2021) 108029
anthropogenic disturbances were not considered in this study. Thus, it is
a valuable subject for the future research, i.e., to analyze spatiotemporal
variations for pixels that have the unchanged vegetation types based on
time series land cover data more accurately. In addition, climate change
is another critical factor in vegetation variations (Piao and Fang, 2003).
However, there is a great controversy about the main climate driving
factors of vegetation dynamics over the Qinba in previous studies based
on NDVI. Luo et al. (Luo, 2009) discovered that the correlation between
vegetation and temperature in the Qinba was higher than precipitation,
which is contrary to the results of Liu et al. (Liu et al., 2015). Chen et al.
(Chen et al., 2019) found that vegetation variations at high altitudes in
the Qinba were more sensitive to temperature change, while variations
in the low altitude areas were more sensitive to precipitation. It is
therefore essential to explore the driving forces associated with vege­
tation variations across the Qinba based on NDVI and EVI in the next.
5. Conclusions
This study comprehensively assessed the multi-temporal vegetation
variations comparatively using 250-m MODIS NDVI and EVI in the
Qinba form 2000 to 2019. It is found that in the past 20 years, vegetation
in this area showed a significant increasing trend based on these two
vegetation indices, with the higher increasing rate in annual and sea­
sonal NDVI than EVI, except summer. Dynamic trends in different
vegetation types over the Qinba were also investigated for the first time,
and significant increasing trends in all analyzed vegetation types other
than marsh and alpine vegetation were observed in annual and seasonal
NDVI and EVI. Spatially, larger proportion of no significant change areas
were obtained in annual, autumn, and winter EVI across the high-
altitude region of western Qinba compared to NDVI. Upon previous
researches on vegetation dynamics in the Qinba, an advance has been
made in identifying and quantifying future vegetation trends through
superimposed trend analysis and Hurst exponent in this study. In
particular, areas with the unfavorable and undetermined trends were
predicted, which deserve special attention. This is very important and
necessary for local government to develop or implement policies and
Y. Bai
projects to promote vegetation restoration. However, this study failed to
detect the duration and accuracy in vegetation trend prediction, which
requires further research.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Yan Bai: Conceptualization, Methodology, Formal analysis, Writing
- review & editing.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the National Scientific and Technolog­
ical Program on Basic Resources Investigation Program (No.
2017FY100900); the 14th Five-year Informatization Plan of Chinese
Academy of Sciences (No. WX145XQ07-11); National Earth System
Science Data Center (No. 2005DKA32300). We would like to appreciate
NASA’s MODIS Science Team for providing MOD13Q1 (V006) data, and
thank Dr. Bai Yongqing for providing technical guidance on Matlab
computing. We also acknowledge the contributions of the anonymous
referees and the editors, whose suggestions significantly improved this
manuscript.
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