Integrated Intelligent Research(IIR) International Journal of Business Intelligent

Volume: 04 Issue: 01 June 2015,Pages No.30- 33

ISSN: 2278-2400

Delphi Adapted Fuzzy Associative Memories

(DAFAM) as a Multiple Expert System and its
Application to Study the Impacts of Climate
Change on Environment
A.Victor Devadoss1, D.Ajay2, K.Sudha3
1
Head & Associate Professor, Department of Mathematics, Loyola College, Chennai-34.
2,3
Ph.D Research Scholar, Department of Mathematics, Loyola College, Chennai-34.
Email: hanivictor@ymail.com, dajaypravin@gmail.com, ashu.8788@gmail.com

Abstract-A new fuzzy technique Delphi Adapted FAM is A fuzzy set is a map μ: X → [0, 1] where X is any set called
proposed in this paper and is used to investigate the impacts of
the domain and [0, 1] the range. That is to every element x
climate change on environment. DAFAM functions as a
X, μ assigns membership value in the interval [0, 1]. Fuzzy
multiple expert system, in that it can be used to combine any
theorists often picture membership functions as two-
number of expert’s views into one relational matrix. The first
dimensional graphs with the domain X represented as a one-
section of this paper gives an introduction to what is done in the
dimensional axis.The geometry of fuzzy sets involves both
paper and the second section explains the dynamics of FAM.
Section three explains the technique DAFAM and in the fourth
domain and the range [0, 1] of mappings
section DAFAM is adapted to investigate the impacts of climate
μ: X → [0, 1]. A fuzzy subset equals the unit hyper cube
change on the environment. Section five, the last section derives
the conclusion and makes some suggestions.
. The fuzzy set is a point in the cube . Vertices
Keywords: Delphi adapted Fuzzy models, Multiple expert
system, Fuzzy associative memories, Climate change. of the cube define a non-fuzzy set. Now within the unit
I. INTRODUCTION
hyper cube we are interested in distance between
The Delphi method (Dalkey & Helmer, 1963) is a proven tool points, which led to measures of size and fuzziness of a fuzzy
for collective decision making (Linstone & Turoff, 2002) for a set and more fundamentally to a measure. Thus within cube
situation in which decision needs to be made by a group of theory directly extends to the continuous case when the space
experts who might have divergent views on the topic. This
method can also be called a prediction method based ob expert X is a subset of . The next step is to consider mappings
judgment. The Delphi method is characterized by the between fuzzy cubes. A fuzzy set defines a point in a cube. A
properties like anonymity, feedback, statistical and fuzzy system defines a mapping between cubes. A fuzzy
convergence. It tries to achieve a consensus among the experts. system S maps fuzzy sets to fuzzy sets. Thus a fuzzy system S
In order to account for the amount of fuzziness in group
is a transformation . The n-dimensional unit
decision making Murray, Pipino & Gigch (1985) proposed
hyper cube In houses all the fuzzy subsets of the domain space
Fuzzy Delphi method. Since then the method has found many
applications. Fuzzy associative memories (FAM) as a model
has been applied to analyse problems in which the factors that or input universe of discourse . houses
attribute to the problem can be classified into antecedent and all the fuzzy subsets of the range space or output universe of
consequent sets and the relationship between them needs to be
analysed. In this paper, the novelty of Fuzzy Delphi Method in discourse, . X and Y can also denote
bringing a consensus is combined with Fuzzy associative
memories so that the new technique thus obtained can function subsets of and . Then the fuzzy power sets
as a multiple expert system.
and replace and .In general a fuzzy system S
II. FUZZY ASSOCIATIVE MEMORIES (FAM) maps families of fuzzy sets to families of fuzzy sets thus

. Here too we can extend

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Integrated Intelligent Research(IIR) International Journal of Business Intelligent
Volume: 04 Issue: 01 June 2015,Pages No.30- 33
ISSN: 2278-2400
the definition of a fuzzy system to allow arbitrary products or knowledge. We combine antecedent and consequent sets with
arbitrary mathematical spaces to serve as the domain or range logical conjunction, disjunction or negation. For instance, we
spaces of the fuzzy sets. We shall focus on fuzzy systems
could interpret the compound association ;
that map balls of fuzzy sets in to balls of
linguistically as the compound conditional “IF is
fuzzy set in . These continuous fuzzy systems behave as
associative memories. The map close inputs to close outputs. AND is , THEN is ” if the comma is the fuzzy
We shall refer to them as Fuzzy Associative Maps or
FAMs.The simplest FAM encodes the FAM rule or association association denotes conjunction instead of say
disjunction.We specify in advance the numerical universe of
, which associates the p-dimensional fuzzy set
discourse for fuzzy variables and . For each
with the n-dimensional fuzzy set . These minimal FAMs universe of discourse or fuzzy variable X, we specify an

essentially map one ball in to one ball in . They are appropriate library of fuzzy set values Contiguous
comparable to simple neural networks. But we need not fuzzy sets in a library overlap. In principle a neural network
adaptively train the minimal FAMs. In general a FAM system can estimate these libraries of fuzzy sets. In practice this is
usually unnecessary. The library sets represent a weighted
encodes the processes in parallel a FAM bank of though overlapping quantization of the input space X. They
represent the fuzzy set values assumed by a fuzzy variable. A
m FAM rules . Each input A to the FAM different library of fuzzy sets similarly quantizes the output
system activates each stored FAM rule to different degree.The space Y. Once we define the library of fuzzy sets we construct
the FAM by choosing appropriate combinations of input and
minimal FAM that stores maps input to a output fuzzy sets Adaptive techniques can make, assist or
modify these choices.
partly activated version of . The more resembles , the
III. DELPHI ADAPTED FAM (DAFAM)
more resembles . The corresponding output fuzzy set B
Consider a system of k synaptic connection matrices
combines these partially activated fuzzy sets .
where
equals a weighted average of the partially activated sets
and which represent opinions of
where reflects the credibility
experts about causal relationship between the neuron field
frequency or strength of fuzzy association . In
with neurons and the neuron field with neurons.
practice we usually defuzzify the output waveform to a Then these matrices are combined as one synaptic connection

single numerical value in by computing the fuzzy

matrix where
centroid of with respect to the output universe of discourse

.More generally a FAM system encodes a bank of Here

compound FAM rules that associate multiple output or

consequent fuzzy sets with multiple input or

, , and

antecedent fuzzy sets . We can treat compound

, where and
FAM rules as compound linguistic conditionals. This allows us
to naturally and in many cases easily to obtain structural
.

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Integrated Intelligent Research(IIR) International Journal of Business Intelligent
Volume: 04 Issue: 01 June 2015,Pages No.30- 33
ISSN: 2278-2400

Expert 1 N 1=( bij )

(1)

M =( aij )
Expert 2 N 2= ( b
(2)
)
ij

'
X i M =X i

Expert k N k =( bij )
(k)
' t
X i M =Y i

Defuzzification

Fig.1 DAFAM as a multiple expert system

IV. ADAPTATION OF DAFAM TO THE PROBLEM C4 – Deforestation

C5 – Water and land pollution
Let us consider that there are n attributes, say x1, … , xn, where
The following are the attributes we choose as effects of climate
n is finite, that are associated with the causes of climate change
change.
and let y1, … ,yp be the attributes associated with its effects,
G1 – Migration of species
where p is finite. We choose the following attributes, which are
G2 – Crop yields
causes of climate change, as nodes in the domain space of
G3 – Glacier and snowpack decline
FAM.
G4 – Sea level rise
C1 – Green house gas (GHG) emissions
G5 –Species extinction
C2 – Natural factors
G6 –Rise in average temperature
C3 – Solid waste management
G7 –Spread of new diseases

The fuzzy relation between these antecedent and consequent

sets of the problem as given by four different experts is given
by the following matrices:

The procedure to combine the views of four experts using equation (1) of DABAM is shown in the table below:

G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7

P M O P M O P M O P M O P M O P M O P M O

C 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.77 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
0.6  0.75 0.65 0.65 0.8 0.8 1 1 1 0.4
1 8 5 7 7 5 9 5 9 8 3 5

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Integrated Intelligent Research(IIR) International Journal of Business Intelligent
Volume: 04 Issue: 01 June 2015,Pages No.30- 33
ISSN: 2278-2400
C 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.17 0.
0  0.4 0.35 0.45 0.4 0 0.05 0.2 0 0.15 0
2 6 2 7 3 5 4 4 4 5 3

C  0. 0.52 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.57 0. 0. 0.47 0. 0.22 0.07 0. 0. 0.77 0.

0.85 0 0.4  0
3 4 5 6 8 9 5 5 6 2 5 7 5 5 3 7 5 8

C  0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.67 0. 0.27 0. 0. 0.72 0. 0. 0.

0.8 0.7 0 0.8 0.8 0 0.2
4 7 9 5 9 5 5 8 5 5 7 5 8 8 5

C 0.67 0. 0.67 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.27 0. 0. 0.

0.5  1 0 0.25 0 0.45 0.6 0.6 0 0.85
5 5 4 5 9 8 8 6 5 7 8 9

The related combined fuzzy matrix M formulated using the V. CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS
opinions of the experts is as follows:
It can be inferred from the table above that the Delphi adapted
FAM brings out the factor which affects the most or gets
affected the most in the situation under analysis. It should be
noted here that the results derived here are the combined
opinion of different experts. When C1 is kept in ON state C 4
also turns into ON state and they have a combined effect on G 5
and G6. That is, GHG emission and deforestation have great
impact on species extinction and species extinction and result
Consider a fit vector C1 = (1 0 0 0 0) where the node Green
in an increase in average temperature. Similarly other results
house gas emission is kept in ON state.
can also be interpreted. The limit points obtained through
C1M = (0.717 0.617 0.792 0.683 0.8 1 0.4) DABAM suggests that C5 (water and land pollution) is the
' most important factor that affects the environment. Therefore
↪ (0 0 0 0 1 1 0) = C 1
pollution should be controlled to protect the environment from
' T being affected by climate change. It can also be inferred from
C 1 M =¿ (1.8 0.266 0.333 1.542 0.925)
the table that C1 (Green house gas (GHG) emissions), C3 (Solid
↪ (0 0 0 1 0) = X1 waste management) and C4 (Deforestation) are the next
important factors that contribute to the degradation of the
X1M = (1.509 1.317 1.45 0.941 1.542 1.8 0.633)
environment. Finally the combined opinion of the experts is
'
↪ (0 0 0 0 1 1 0) = X 1 that C2 (Natural factors) does not play crucial role in affecting
the environment when compare to the other factors.
' T
X 1 M =¿ (1.8 0.266 0.333 1.542 0.925)
REFERENCES
↪ (1 0 0 1 0) = X2 = X1 [1] Dalkey, N., & Helmer, O. (1963). An experimental application of the
Delphi method to the use of experts. Management Science, 9, 458–467.
Therefore the binary pair (0 0 0 0 1 1 0), (1 0 0 1 0) [2] Devadoss, A.V., et al (2014). Analysing the impacts of Climate change
represents the fixed point. using Fuzzy associative memories model (FAM), International Journal
of Computing Algorithm, Volume: 02, October 2013, Pages:373-377.
The following table gives different limit points when we take [3] “Climate change 2007: synthesis report” a report by IPCC.
different input vectors [4] Kosko B., Neural Networks and Fuzzy Systems, Prentice-Hall, Inc.,
New Jersey, USA, 1992.
Input vector Limit cycle [5] Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M., ed, 2002, The Delphi Method:
Techniques and Applications, ISBN 0-201-04294-0.
(1 0 0 0 0) (0 0 0 0 1 1 0), (1 0 0 1 0) [6] McMichael. A.J., et al (Ed)., Climate and Human Health: Risks and
Responses., WHO, Geneva, 2003.
(0 1 0 0 0) (1 1 0 0 0 0 0), (0 0 0 1 1) [7] Murray, T. J., Pipino, L. L., & Gigch, J. P. (1985). A pilot study of
fuzzy set modification of Delphi. Human Systems Management, 6–80.
(0 0 1 0 0) (0 1 0 0 0 0 1), (0 0 1 0 1)
(0 0 0 1 0) (0 0 0 0 1 1 0), (1 0 0 1 0)
(0 0 0 0 1) (0 1 0 0 0 0 1), (0 0 1 0 1)

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