45 years of non-stationary hydrology

over the Coalburn upland forest

catchment
what happens to the river discharge when you
plant trees

Steve Birkinshaw and James Bathurst (Newcastle University)

Mark Robinson (CEH)
 Experimental Catchments
• Crucial in understanding effect of forests on
river discharges
• Paired Catchments (Coalburn, Flothers and
Throssburn, see poster)
– Never identical, e.g different soils
• Long term datasets from a single catchment
(45 years at Coalburn)
– Changes in meteorological data
Coalburn Catchment
Coalburn Catchment
 Coalburn Catchment
• 1.5 km2 catchment, Kielder forest
• Longest running forest research catchment in the
UK
• 45 years data
• Started 1967
• Ploughed (deep ditches) and planted with trees
1972/73
• Trees now mature
• Felling due to start in 2015
Thank to lots of people involved in obtaining this data in a fairly remote and at
times inhospitable place
 Coalburn Catchment
• Consistent reliable dataset
• Hourly discharge data from 1967-2011
– Some gaps
• Monthly meteorological data 1967 – 1992
• Hourly meteorological data 1993 – 2011
– Some infilling of precipitation
 Coalburn Catchment
Research Questions
Over the 45 years what happens to:
1. Water yield (or annual discharge)
2. Peak discharges
 Water Yield
1200

1100

1000
Discharge (mm)

900

800 1967-1971
1972-1976
1977-1981
700
1982-1986
1987-1991
600 1992-1996
1997-2001
500 2002-2006
2007-2011
400
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Precipitation (mm)
 Water yield
75

Ploughing
70
Runoff Ratio (%)

65

60

55

50
1967-1971 1972-1976 1977-1981 1982-1986 1987-1991 1992-1996 1997-2001 2002-2006 2007-2011
 Water Yield
• Ploughing of the upland grassland caused a
50-100mm increase in annual streamflow
• The current mature forest has caused a
decrease of 250-300 m in annual streamflow
 Peak Discharges
• Mark Robinson found an increase in peak
discharge and reduction in time to peak after
ploughing in 1972/73
• What happens to peak discharges since the
trees were planted?
 Peak Discharges
• Trends in annual maximum and peaks over
threshold (Mann Kendal test)
15
Annual maximum discharge
Discharge (mm/hr)

10

0 No
1967 1969 1971 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

15
trends
found
Number of discharge peaks over a threshold of 2mm
exceedances
Number of

10

0
1967 1969 1971 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
 Peak Discharges
2000
Annual precipitation
Annual total (mm)

1500

1000
Statistically
increasing
500
trend:
0 10 mm/yr
1967 1969 1971 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Is the increasing rainfall counteracting with the increasing tree

height to produce no change in the peak discharge?

Try a hydrological model

 Peak Discharges
• Shetran physically-based
distributed hydrological model
• 50m grid resolution
• 1.2m deep peat soil (4 different soil
layers)
• Evapotranspiration calculated using
the Penman Monteith equation
 Peak Discharges
The two scenarios for calibration/validation of the Coalburn catchment

Scenario Calibration Validation

Scenario 1 – small (8m) trees 1/1/1993-31/12/1996 1/1/1997 – 31/12/2011

Scenario 2 – tall (15m) trees 1/1/2007-31/12/2011 1/1/1993 – 31/12/2006

Between scenarios:
• Taller trees
change aerodynamic resistance, canopy storage capacity
• Gradually Infilling ditches
change Strickler roughness coefficient
 Peak
High Nash Sutcliffe efficiency reducing
Discharges
High Nash Sutcliffe efficiency reducing
with taller trees
with smaller trees
Nash Sutcliffe Nash Sutcliffe
Efficiency - Scenario 1 Efficiency - Scenario 2
(small trees) (tall trees)
1993-1996 0.91 0.86
1997-2001 0.89 0.90
2002-2006 0.89 0.90
2007-2011 0.82 0.91
3
Measured
2.5
Scenario 1
Discharge (m3/s)

2 Scenario 2

1.5

0.5

0
05/01/2005 06/01/2005 07/01/2005 08/01/2005 09/01/2005 10/01/2005 11/01/2005
 Peak Discharges
•Measured discharge similar to scenario 1 (small tree) discharge 1993-1997. Measured
discharge < scenario 1 discharge 2007-2011
•Measured discharge similar to scenario 2 (tall tree) discharge 2007-2011. Measured
discharge > scenario 2 discharge 1993-1996
=> As the trees increase in height it increasing evapotranspiration and reduces the
discharge (non-stationary hydrology)
 Peak Discharges
•Good hydrological simulation for small trees (scenario 1) and tall trees
(scenario 2)
•Plot daily maximum discharge for two scenario. i.e. what would discharge be
with small trees for a tall trees discharge
•Small trees have higher discharges (less evapotranspiration)
•Not a simple relationship. Range of values (depends on initial conditions and
type of rainfall)
 Peak Discharges
•Compare ranked annual maximum discharge for two scenario. i.e. what would
discharge be with small trees and what with big trees
•Small trees have higher discharges (less evapotranspiration)
•Difference smaller for bigger events – absolute convergence
• 50% increase in frequency for smaller trees (Alila –UBC, Canada)
 Conclusions
• Ploughing of the upland grassland caused a small
increase in annual streamflow (50-100mm)
• The current mature forest has caused a major
decrease in annual streamflow (250-300mm)
• Initial ploughing of the catchment caused an
increase in peak discharge
• Taller trees have caused a reduction in peak
discharge compared to smaller trees but the
difference in smaller for larger events
 Conclusions
Will planting trees in an upland catchment reduce the flooding downstream?
• There are two mechanisms by which planting trees will reduce flooding
downstream
1. Increased storage. Drier under trees due to increased evapotranspiration
2. Attenuation of the hydrograph. Slowing water travel time down – e.g.
slower surface runoff, increased infiltration
Deep ploughing (e.g. 1972/73 Colburn) before planting is bad – more peaky
hydrograph
3
Discharge

2
(m3/s)

Trees can help but it depends on: 1

0
1. Type of soil 05/01/2005 06/01/2005 07/01/2005 08/01/2005 09/01/2005 10/01/2005 11/01/2005
Small Trees Tall Trees
2. Type of rainfall 1.5
Discharge

1
(m3/s)

0.5
0
02/07/2004 03/07/2004 04/07/2004 05/07/2004
Thank you