1 Earth-Science Reviews

2 Supplementary article
3 Global magnitude-frequency statistics of the failures and impacts of
4 large water-retention dams and mine tailings impoundments
5 Nahyan M. Rana1, Negar Ghahramani2, Stephen G. Evans1, Andy Small3, Nigel Skermer4, Scott
6 McDougall2, W. Andy Take5.
7
8 1Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario,
9 Canada N2L 3G1.
10 2Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of British Columbia,
11 Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada V6T 1Z4.
12 3 Klohn Crippen Berger, Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada E3B 2L2.
13 4 Consulting Engineer, Penticton, British Columbia.
14 5 Department of Civil Engineering, Queen's University, Kingston, Canada K7L 3N6.
15
16 Corresponding author:
17 Nahyan M. Rana
18 Email: nahyan.m2012@gmail.com
19

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20 1 Introduction

21 The purpose of this supplementary article is to describe our supplementary datasets and present
22 some supplemental figures and information that were not directly relevant to our main article but
23 could still be of interest to readers.
24

25 2 Description of supplementary information

26 2.1 Supplementary database and images of LRF failures

27 We provide a supplementary database of 36 reported LRF failures worldwide in the period 1965-
28 2020 that were either not reported in pre-existing databases or had some gaps in information that
29 we fill in by our review or analysis. In a zip file, we also provide GIS-processed, pre-event and
30 post-event satellite images (JPEG or PDF format) of 19 of these cases, including the 1975 Banqiao-
31 Shimantan disaster in China. Similar to the approach of Rana et al. (2021a,b), the following types
32 of satellite imagery were consulted: Corona, Landsat, USGS aerial photographs, Sentinel, SPOT
33 (on Google Earth), RapidEye, PlanetScope and Worldview (on Google Earth). While the database
34 is limited in the number of cases, it builds on previous work by updating the number of LRF
35 failures in recent years, geo-locating most of the failure sites and releasing satellite images of a
36 majority of the failures, thus improving the documentation of LRF failures.
37 In the database file, we also summarize the results of our two approaches (Estimation Scenario 1
38 and Estimation Scenario 2) to estimate the number of LRF failures in China and subsequently
39 worldwide. We also summarize our approach to obtaining a minimum-approximation of the
40 storage capacity of failed LRFs worldwide over the study period.
41
42 2.2 Summary worksheet file of the TSF construction extrapolation results

43 We attach a supplementary MS Excel file that outlines the Mean Extrapolation and Median
44 Extrapolation steps and results involved in estimating the number of TSFs constructed worldwide
45 in the period 1965-2020. We also compare the obtained estimates to the disclosure data in Franks
46 et al. (2021). All the calculation steps, uncertainties and implications are discussed in detail in the
47 main article.

48
49 2.3 Supplementary database and images of TSF failures

50 We provide a supplementary database of 303 TSF failures worldwide (across 249 distinct mine
51 sites) in the period 1965-2020. Further details on this database are provided in Section 4.5 in the
52 main article. In a zip file, we provide GIS-processed, post-event satellite images of 58 failed TSFs.

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53 All the images were captured within 3 years after failure. For recent TSF failure cases, the
54 RapidEye, PlanetScope, and Worldview (on Google Earth) post-event images were captured just
55 a few days to weeks after failure. We note that the failure extents were not explicitly visible in
56 some of the presented images of older cases, either because the site was restored/rehabilitated by
57 the time of the image (this was common for USGS aerial photographs) or because of the coarse
58 resolution (common for Landsat series). Nevertheless, we choose to include these images to
59 improve the satellite documentation of remotely visible TSF failures. We note that Rana et al.
60 (2021a,b) previously published the post-event satellite/aerial images of 34 tailings flows, which
61 are not reproduced here.
62
63 2.4 Geospatial mapping of mine areas with historically failed TSFs

64 We built on previous global-scale mapping studies (see Table 4 in main article) by independently
65 mapping the surface areas of mine features (TSFs, open-cut pits, waste rock dumps, mill
66 infrastructure, water storage ponds and heap leach pads) at 157 failed TSF sites. We adopted a
67 manual approach similar to that of Werner et al. (2020). The purpose of this effort was two-fold:
68 (i) to expand the surface area mapping coverage of TSFs and mine sites; and (ii) to develop an
69 empirical relationship between “maximum remotely visible” mine area and TSF area to help
70 extrapolate the approximate global surface area of TSFs (see Fig. S22). By “maximum remotely
71 visible”, we mean the maximum extent of the mine that was visible at the time of the satellite
72 imagery basemap on which we (and Werner et al., 2020) performed the mapping. In our case, we
73 performed a time-series satellite/aerial imagery analysis of each geo-located mine site (where a
74 historical TSF failure occurred) and mapped the maximum remotely visible area of the mine,
75 whether this maximum extent was visible on an image captured around the time of failure or
76 whether this maximum extent is observed in recent imagery.
77 The mapped surface areas are reported in m2 in the same database file of TSF failures. The surface
78 area polygons are provided in a KMZ file as supplementary data (see Fig. S19 for two examples).
79 We mapped a mine area sum of 753 km2 and a TSF area sum of 388 km2. We note that 15 of the
80 157 mine sites with historically failed TSFs were previously mapped by Werner et al. (2020), but
81 we independently re-mapped the sites and performed a cursory check of uncertainty (i.e.
82 subjectivity and human error) by comparing our values against theirs. The percentage difference
83 between our mine area sum values and that of Werner et al. (2020) was 19% for the shared sites
84 (12% if an outlier site is excluded). The percentage difference between our TSF area measurements
85 was higher (35%) because Werner et al. (2020) mapped some of the TSF embankments as waste
86 rock piles, whereas we mapped the entire facility as a TSF. A visual comparison between our
87 approaches is shown in Fig. S20.
88 Islam and Murakami (2021) mapped the surface areas of 134 TSFs that have historically failed.
89 During our geospatial mapping exercise, we found that a few of the historically failed TSFs were
90 erroneously identified in Islam and Murakami (2021). We corrected these issues by our GIS-

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91 remote sensing verification approach (see comment boxes in the database and the KMZ file and
92 see Fig. S21 for two visual examples).
93
94 2.5 Annual probability of failures over time: Poisson process distribution

95 The Poisson process is a statistical model used to describe recurring phenomena for which the
96 average time between events is known, but the waiting period between successive events is
97 stochastic (random) and the events are independent of each other (e.g. Lari et al., 2014). The
98 occurrences of engineered impoundment failures (with the exception of rare cascade events)
99 generally satisfy these criteria and therefore can be classified as Poisson processes.

100 As a way to supplement our histogram analyses of LRF and TSF failures in the main article (Figs.
101 5 and 9), we plot a Poisson distribution of failure occurrences to estimate the annual probability of
102 the number of events (Eq. 1) and the probability of exceeding a given waiting period between
103 successive events (Eq. 2) in the period 1965-2020 (Figs. S12 and S13). This approach also helps
104 visually illustrate how the mean annual rate of occurrences has changed over time by dividing our
105 study period into four equally-spaced (14-year) time intervals: 1965-1978, 1979-1992, 1993-2006
106 and 2007-2020.

107 The probability mass function for Poisson distribution is defined as follows (Eq. 1):
𝑘
‒𝜆 𝜆
108 [1] 𝑃 (𝑘 events in time interval) = 𝑒
𝑘!

109 where k is the number of events in the given time interval and λ is the rate parameter (i.e. the
110 average number of occurrences in a given time interval) that corresponds to the peak annual
111 probability.

112 Eq. 2 shows the probability of exceeding a given waiting period:

𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠
‒ ∗𝑡
𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒
113 [ 2 ] 𝑃 (𝑇 > 𝑡 ) = 𝑒

114 where t is the time interval. The formula indicates that the probability of waiting a certain period
115 of time between events decreases exponentially as time increases.
116
117
118

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119 3 Supplemental figures

120 3.1 Large reservoir facilities (LRFs)

121

122
123 Fig. S1: Annual sums of the storage capacities of LRFs (in m3) constructed in the period 1965-2020. The rate is lower
124 than the peak in the 1980s and has remained fairly steady over the past two decades.

125

126
127 Fig. S2: Annual sums of the surface areas of LRFs (in m2) constructed in the period 1965-2020. The rate has steadily
128 declined over time since the peak in the 1970s-1980s.

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129
130 Fig. S3: Cumulative surface area of LRFs (in m2) constructed in the period 1965-2020. The rate has steadily declined
131 over time since the peak in the 1970s-1980s. The cumulative sum is ~4 x 1011 m3, which is equivalent to the size of
132 Paraguay (60th largest nation in the world by surface area).

133

134
135 Fig. S4: Box-and-whisker plot distributions of the surface areas of LRFs (in m2) constructed in the period 1965-2020,
136 presented in log scale. The mean values are represented by “x”. Note the recent increase in the mean surface area of
137 new LRFs.

138

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139
140 Fig. S5: Box-and-whisker plot distributions of the storage capacities of LRFs (in m2) constructed in the period 1965-
141 2020, presented in log scale. The mean values are represented by “x”. Note the recent increase in the mean storage
142 capacity of new LRFs.

143

144
145 Fig. S6: Box-and-whisker plot distributions of the dam heights of LRFs (in m2) constructed in the period 1965-2020.
146 The mean values are represented by “x”. Note the steady increase in the mean dam height of LRFs over the past two
147 decades.

148

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149
150 Fig. S7: Bar graph distribution of the top 10 main purposes of LRFs constructed in the period 1965-2020, as listed in
151 the ICOLD Registry (2020). Abbreviations are as follows: I is irrigation, H is hydroelectricity, C is flood control, S is
152 water supply, X is others and R is recreation. A combination of two or more letters indicates multipurpose facilities,
153 with the first letter indicating the primary purpose. The total number of LRFs accounted for in the above bar graph is
154 18,623 (56% of 33,424 LRFs constructed in the period 1965-2020). In total, there are 518 distinct purposes in the
155 ICOLD Registry (2020).

156

157
158 Fig. S8: Bar graph distribution of the top 10 countries in terms of the number of LRFs constructed in the period 1965-
159 2020, as listed in the ICOLD Registry (2020). The total number of LRFs accounted for in the above bar graph is
160 26,016 (78% of 33,424 LRFs constructed in the period 1965-2020).

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161
162 Fig. S9: Bar chart showing the tallest LRF dams in the world according to the ICOLD (2020) Registry.

163

164
165 Fig. S10: Bar chart showing the largest LRFs in the world in terms of surface area, according to the ICOLD (2020)
166 Registry.

167
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169 Fig. S11: Bar chart showing the largest LRFs in the world in terms of storage capacity, according to the ICOLD (2020)
170 Registry.

171
172

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174

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175 Fig. S12: Poisson process probability distributions of LRF failures worldwide in the period 1965-2020 based on our
176 Estimation Scenario 1 [a-d] and Estimation Scenario 2 [e-g]. [a,e] Probability mass function of the Poisson distribution
177 for LRF failures per annum. [b,f] The data from [a,e] is broken down into four successive 14-year intervals. [c,g]
178 Exponential decaying probability of exceeding the waiting time (in months) between successive LRF failure events.
179 [d,h] The data from [c,g] is broken down into the same four successive time intervals. The rate parameter (λ) for the
180 entire 56-year study period is calculated to be between 7 (Scenario 1) and 11 (Scenario 2) LRF failures per annum on
181 average, which represents the peak of the probability curve (i.e. the number of events with the greatest probability) as
182 derived from Eq. 1. This yields a peak probability of 0.15 for 7 LRF failures per annum in Scenario 1 [a] or 0.12 for
183 11 LRF failures per annum in Scenario 2 [e]. However, the Poisson distributions change markedly if the data is divided
184 into four successive 14-year intervals. Based on Scenario 1, the rate parameters declined from 16 events per annum in
185 1965-1978 to 1.4 events per annum in 2007-2020. Based on Scenario 2, the rate parameters declined from 26 events
186 per annum in 1965-1978 to 2 events per annum in 2007-2020. These observations are also confirmed when deriving
187 by Eq. 2 the probability of exceeding a given waiting period (in months) between successive LRF failures. For data
188 encompassing the 56-year study period, the 50% exceedance probability corresponds to a waiting time of 1.2 months
189 (Scenario 1; [c]) or 0.8 month (Scenario 2; [g]) between successive LRF failures. When sub-dividing into the four
190 successive time intervals, the waiting time corresponding to a 50% exceedance probability reduced from 0.6 month in
191 1965-1978 to 6 months in 2007-2020 in Scenario 1 [d], and from 0.4 month in 1965-1978 to 4.8 months in 2007-2020
192 in Scenario 2 [h].

193

194

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195 3.2 Tailings storage facilities (TSFs)
196

197
198 Fig. S13: Poisson process probability distributions of TSF failures in the period 1965-2020. [a] Probability mass
199 function of the Poisson distribution for TSF failures per annum. [b] The data from [a] is broken down into four
200 successive 14-year intervals: 1965-1978, 1979-1992, 1993-2006, and 2007-2020. [c] Exponential decaying probability
201 of exceeding the waiting time (in months) between successive TSF failure events. [d] The data from [c] is broken
202 down into the same four successive time intervals as [b]. In contrast to LRF failures, the annual rate and probability
203 of TSF failures has remained relatively constant over time. The highest probabilities of 16-18% are associated with
204 4-6 failures per year. There is a 50% probability of waiting ≥2 months between successive TSF failures.

205

206
207 Fig. S14: Bar graph distribution of the top 5 countries in terms of the total number of TSF failures in the period 1965-
208 2020, based on our supplementary database.

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209
210 Fig. S15: Bar graph distribution of the annual numbers of TSF failures in the period 1965-2020 in USA, Chile, Canada,
211 Philippines and Brazil (the top 5 countries for TSF failures). The frequency of TSF failures in USA and Chile has
212 notably declined over time. In Canada, there has been no TSF failure since the 2014 Mt. Polley disaster (released
213 volume of 25 M m3). The frequency of failures in Brazil has increased in recent years, as has the released volume due
214 to the 2015 Fundao (32 M m3) and 2019 Feijao (9.7 M m3) disasters.

215
216 Fig. S16: Box-and-whisker plot distributions of the 5-year planned storage capacities of TSFs (in m3), expressed in
217 log-scale, constructed in the period 1965-2020 as per the incomplete disclosure data in Franks et al. (2021). The mean
218 values are represented by “x”. Note that the average size of TSFs has not increased over time.

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220 Fig. S17: Bar chart showing the 5 largest TSFs in the world in terms of 5-year planned storage capacity based on the
221 incomplete disclosure data in Franks et al. (2021).

222

223
224 Fig. S18: Bar chart showing the 5 tallest TSF dams in the world based on the incomplete disclosure data in Franks et
225 al. (2021).

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226

227
228 Fig. S19: Two ideal examples of how we mapped the surface areas of mine sites with historical failures of TSFs on
229 Google Earth. Our approach followed that of Werner et al. (2020), and our work builds on theirs and Islam and
230 Murakami (2021). The top example shows the Portworthy mine in UK (TSF failure in 1970) and the Tonglvshan mine
231 in China (TSF failure in 2017). The left-side images show the pre-mapping image on Google Earth and the right-side
232 images show the post-mapping result.

233

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235
236 Fig. S20: A visual comparison of mapping approaches between the present study and Werner et al. (2020) on Google
237 Earth. The top example shows the Golden Cross TSF that failed in 1995 in Waihi Mine, New Zealand. Of the 157
238 mine sites with historically failed TSFs that we mapped, 15 were previously mapped by Werner et al. (2020). Note
239 that Werner et al. (2020) mapped the TSF embankment as a waste rock pile whereas we mapped the entire facility as
240 a TSF. This was a common difference between our approaches, which led to a ~36% difference between our TSF area
241 measurements for the same TSF site. However, our mine area measurements for the shared mine sites had a lower
242 percentage difference of 19% (12% when excluding an outlier site). This is exemplified by the bottom example, the
243 Olympic Mine/Dam in Australia, where our measurements were relatively similar.

244
245

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247
248 Fig. S21: During our geospatial mapping, we used GIS-remote sensing methods to verify the location of a failed TSF
249 in order to build on Islam and Murakami (2021). We found that a few of the mapped “failed” TSFs were erroneously
250 identified in their work. We corrected this issue by our GIS-remote sensing verification approach, two examples of
251 which are shown here. The top image shows the Aznalcollar (Los Frailes) mine site in Spain which had a catastrophic
252 TSF failure in 1998 – an image of the failure and flow is shown in Rana et al. (2021a,b). Islam and Murakami (2021)
253 mapped the pit (in blue) as the TSF but the actual TSF that failed is shaded in white. A similar correction is made to
254 the 1996 El Porco case in Bolivia (bottom image). The post-event Landsat image of this tailings flow event is provided
255 in our supplementary data. Islam and Murakami (2021) mapped the new TSF as the one that failed, but our Landsat
256 image shows that it is the now-abandoned TSF to the east (right-side facility with the text box) that failed.

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257
258 Fig. S22: Estimating the global surface area of TSFs by extrapolation from a mine area vs. TSF area relationship using
259 data from our geospatial mapping and data from Werner et al. (2020). Only mine sites with a minimum surface area
260 of 1 km2 are considered here. The number of data points is 322 (235 from Werner et al., 2020 and 87 from our mapping
261 data) corresponding to mine sites and TSFs commenced in the period 1965-2020. The global surface area of remotely
262 visible (i.e. the area that is visible and mappable by GIS-remote sensing methods) mine sites was mapped by Maus et
263 al. (2020) to be 57,300 km2 and Liang et al. (2021) to be 31,400 km2. By a deterministic extrapolation from the best-
264 fit trendline equation, it is estimated that TSFs may cover an area between ~3,200 km2 and ~5,400 km2 worldwide.
265 To date, Werner et al. (2020) mapped 918 km2 of TSFs, Tang et al. (2020) mapped 1,884 km2 (representing 5,189
266 TSFs in China) and we mapped 375 km2 (excluding the 15 mapped mine sites that are shared across our work and
267 Werner et al., 2020). These values sum to 3,177 km2. Given that a significant majority of TSFs have yet to be mapped
268 worldwide (including >50% of TSFs in China, those reported in the disclosure dataset in Franks et al., 2021 and TSFs
269 in poorly documented regions around the world), we propose that the “true” global surface area of TSFs is likely
270 closer to, and perhaps exceeds, ~5,400 km2. This area is equivalent to the size of the 8th largest city in the world by
271 urban area (Philadelphia, USA).

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278 4 References

279 Franks, D.M., Stringer, M., Torres-Cruz, L.A., Baker, E., Valenta, R., Thygesen, K., Matthews, A., Howchin, J.,
280 Barrie, S., 2021. Tailings facility disclosures reveal stability risks. Sci. Rep. 11 (1), 1–7.
281 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-84897-0.

282 International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD), 2020. World Register of Dams. https://www.icold-
283 cigb.org/GB/world_register/general_synthesis.asp (accessed October 2021).

284 Islam, K., Murakami, S., 2021. Global-scale impact analysis of mine tailings dam failures: 1915–2020. Glob.
285 Environ. Change 70, 102361. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102361.

286 Lari, S., Frattini, P., Crosta, G.B., 2014. A probabilistic approach for landslide hazard analysis. Eng. Geol. 182, 3-
287 14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2014.07.015.

288 Maus, V., Giljum, S., Gutschlhofer, J., da Silva, D.M., Probst, M., Gass, S.L., Luckeneder, S., Lieber, M.,
289 McCallum, I., 2020. A global-scale data set of mining areas. Scientific data 7(1), 1-13.
290 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-00624-w.

291 Tang, L., Liu, X., Wang, X., Liu, S., Deng, H., 2020. Statistical analysis of tailings ponds in China. J. Geochem.
292 Explor. 216, 106579. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gexplo.2020.106579.

293 Werner, T.T., Mudd, G.M., Schipper, A.M., Huijbregts, M.A., Taneja, L., Northey, S.A., 2020. Global-scale remote
294 sensing of mine areas and analysis of factors explaining their extent. Glob. Environ. Change 60, 102007.
295 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103578.

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