30 September 2020

CLIMATE
OUTLOOK for
Region III
OCTOBER 2020 – MARCH 2021
Prepared by:
PAGASA-DOST
Climatology & Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section
(CLIMPS)
ENSO STATUS

Climate Outlook
(October 2020 – March 2021)

Summary
ENSO INDICATORS, AT A GLANCE...
OCEANIC INDICATOR, SST

Most recent pentad analysis

During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs • In the last two months, negative subsurface temperature
were below average from the Date Line to the anomalies have strengthened in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
eastern Pacific Ocean, and were above • Meanwhile, positive subsurface temperature anomalies have
average in the western Pacific Ocean. strengthened in the western Pacific Ocean.

Recent SST conditions suggest currently at La

Nina thresholds
ENSO INDICATORS, AT A GLANCE...
OCEANIC INDICATOR, SST ATMOSPHERIC INDICATOR, SOI

As of 28 September, the latest

weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 -1.0ºC
Niño 3 -1.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.8ºC

Has reached La Nina threshold

Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño

while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña.
Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
Niño Region SST Departures
(oC) Recent Evolution

The latest weekly SST

departures are: as of 28 Sept

Niño 4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 -1.0ºC
Niño 3 -1.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.8ºC
 Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the
ONI computed using ERSST.v5
Recent Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 ºC for the Oceanic
Nino Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W)].
For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the
threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.
The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether
features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods. The complete
table going back to DJF 1950 can be found here.

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7

2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6

2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6

2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0

2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2

2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3

2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7

2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6

2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6

2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0

2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8

2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5

2020 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.4

• Recent cooling of SSTs have reached La Nina condition
• ENSO Alert System Status: LA NINA ALERT
• La Nina Advisory will be issued in October 2020
PAGASA ENSO ALERT AND WARNING
SYSTEM
Types of Alert
During a La Niña:
• La Niña Watch - issued when climate favors development of La Niña
conditions within the next six months and probability is 55% or more;
not guarantee that Niña will occur.
• La Niña Alert – an upgrade from La Niña Watch; issued when ONI of
- 0.5oC or less is forecasted to persist in the next 2 months or more
and La Niña is likely/probable by 70% or more** (to satisfy 5 ONI).
• La Niña Advisory - an upgrade from La Niña Alert. Issued whenever a La
Niña is currently on-going and the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
threshold is expected to persist during the forecast period.
• Final La Niña Advisory - issued whenever an ONI value is between <0.5oC
to > -0.5oC or neutral.
 PAGASA Operational Definitions for La Niña
"La Niña conditions" exist when:
• A one-month negative sea surface temperature anomaly of -0.5°C or less is
observed in the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5°N - 5°S,
120°W - 170°W) and an expectation that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index
(ONI) threshold will be met; and

• An atmospheric response typically associated with La Niña is observed over

the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.

La Niña Event/Episode: 5 consecutive ONI* of -0.5°C or less is observed

(i.e., 5 overlapping 3- months)
ENSO PROBABILISTIC FORECAST
La Niña conditions are present and are most likely to continue through SON
and DJF season, with a 75% chance.

Model outlook + Expert Judgement Purely Model outlook

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-iri_plume
As of mid-September:

• 85% of the dynamical or

statistical models predicts La
Niña conditions for the initial
Sep-Nov season
 CLIMATE REVIEW & ENSO STATUS CLIMATE OUTLOOK SUMMARY

OCT 2020 MAR 2021 WEATHER SYSTEMS

THAT MAY AFFECT
THE COUNTRY

SOUTHWEST Transition to NE NORTHEAST THUNDERSTORMS

MONSOON (OCT-NOV) MONSOON

RIDGE OF HIGH INTER-TROPICAL TAIL-END OF

PRESSURE AREAS EASTERLIES CONVERGENCE COLD FRONT
(HPAs) ZONE (ITCZ)

LOW PRESSURE TROPICAL

AREAS (LPAs) CYCLONES
To be updated on Monday but
problem with data update ….
High probability (90-95%) for High probability (80-90%) for rainfall
rainfall to exceed 25 mm in Region to exceed 50 mm in most or Region 3
3 areas areas
FORECAST RAINFALL FOR OCT 2020 – MARCH 2021 in millimeter (mm) and % of Normal (%N)
FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams and Lakes
in (mm) and (%N) FOR OCTOBER 2020 - MARCH 2021
FORECAST RAINFALL OF RAIN STATIONS OVER SELECTED DAM AREAS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR OCT 2020 - MAR 2021
FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR OCT - DEC 2020
FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR JAN – MAR 2021
 MONTHLY MEAN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST
(OCTOBER 2020- MARCH 2021)

Slightly warmer

warmer

Near
average
Near average warmer Slightly warmer Slightly
warmer
warmer warmer
warmer
warmer
warmer

Near average Slightly

warmer warmer

warmer
warmer

Slightly
warmer
warmer
Near average
warmer

warmer
warmer

Near average
 MONTHLY MEAN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST
(OCTOBER 2020- MARCH 2021)

cooler
cooler

Slightly cooler

Near average

Slightly cooler
Near average Near Near average
warmer average
Near average
warmer
Slightly warmer
Slightly
warmer
warmer

Near average
cooler
cooler
cooler Near average

warmer

warmer cooler Slightly cooler

Near average warmer

warmer Near average

warmer
warmer
warmer
warmer

Near average

Near average
 FORECAST RANGES OF TEMPERATURE (EXTREME)
Updated : 21 September 2020
Forecast Tropical Cyclone Frequency
Month Number of TC
OCTOBER 2020 2 OR 3
NOVEMBER 2020 1 OR 2
DECEMBER 2020 1 OR 2
JANUARY 2021 1 OR 2
FEBRUARY 2021 0 OR 1
MARCH 2021 0 OR 1
SUMMARY
• La Nina Alert La Nina Advisory
• Forecast Rainfall for REGION III:
⮚ Region III will likely experience near to above normal rainfall
conditions in October 2020 to January and March 2021 except in
Tarlac and Zambales (below normal) in January 2021. In February,
below normal is expected except for Aurora (near normal).

• 5 to 8 TCs might develop/enter the PAR

 PAGASA will continue to closely monitor
the developing La Nina and
updates/advisories shall be issued
as appropriate.

Tentative schedule of
next CF:

21 October 2020

33
Website:
www.bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Facebook:
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Twitter:
@dost_pagasa

PAGASA new Number

Trunkline: (02) 8284- 0800
Weather Climate
Forecasting:
Local
927-1541 905/906
Local 805
PAGASA ENSO ALERT AND WARNING
SYSTEM
Types of Alert
During a La Niña
• La Niña Watch - issued when climate favours development of La Niña
conditions within the next six months and probability is 55% or more;
not guarantee that La Nina will occur.
• La Niña Alert – an upgrade from La Niña Watch; issued when ONI of -
0.5oC or less is forecasted to persist in the next 2 months or more and
La Niña is likely/probable by 70% or more** (to satisfy 5 ONI).
• La Niña Advisory - an upgrade from La Niña Alert. Issued whenever a
La Niña is currently on-going and the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
threshold is expected to persist during the forecast period.
• Final La Niña Advisory - issued whenever an ONI value is between
<0.5°C to > -0.5°C or Neutral
Similar conditions:
1995 -1996
2005 – 2006
2008 – 2009
2016 – 2017
2017 - 2018
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST OCTOBER 2020
Normal (mm) (1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces likely to

experience: 0 1 55 27
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST NOVEMBER 2020
Normal (mm) (1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces likely to

experience: 0 2 63 18
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST DECEMBER 2020
Normal (mm) (1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces likely to

experience: 0 3 23 57
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST JANUARY 2021
Normal (mm) (1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces likely to

experience: 0 3 16 64
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST FEBRUARY
Normal (mm) (1981-2010) Forecast (mm) 2021
% Normal

No. of provinces likely to

experience: 3 13 44 23
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST MARCH 2021
Normal (mm) (1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal

No. of provinces likely to

experience: 0 1 3 79
FORECAST RAINFALL FOR OCT 2020 – MARCH 2021 in millimeter (mm) and % of Normal (%N)