PROVINCIAL CLIMATE FORUM

PAGASA
CLIMATE SERVICES

September 2020
 OUTLINE
CLIMATE MONITORING
▪ Daily Rainfall and Temperature
Monitoring
▪ Monthly Monitoring Products
▪ Tropical Cyclone Associated Rainfall
▪ El Niño/ La Niña Monitoring
▪ Impact Assessment for Agriculture
SUB-SEASONAL FORECAST
▪ 10-day Forecast
▪ Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Forecast
▪ 10-day Agri-weather Information
MONTHLY/SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTS
▪ Monthly Climate Assessment and Outlook
Advisories
▪ Monthly Agro-climatic Review and outlook
▪ Seasonal Climate Assessment and Outlook
Advisories
▪ Monthly Regional Forecast Quick Outlook
▪ Monthly Rainfall Forecast
▪ Monthly Temperature Forecast
▪ Monthly Probabilistic Forecast
▪ Monthly Tropical Cyclone Forecast
▪ Drought and Dry Spell assessment and forecast
▪ El Niño/ La Niña Advisories, El Niño/ La Niña
Watch
▪ Press Release
CLIMATE CHANGE
▪ Climate projections for the Philippines
 CLIMATE MONITORING
▪ DAILY RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE MONITORING

✓ Daily Monitoring of Rainfall (Past 3 days, Actual Month and Past Month Percent Normal) and
Temperature (Tmax, Tmin, Past Month Average Tmean, Past Month Tmean Anomally and
Extremes.)

✓ Issuance: Daily

✓ Accessibility: PAGASA website and Payong PAGASA mobile app

 CLIMATE MONITORING
▪ MONTHLY MONITORING PRODUCTS

✓ Monthly monitoring for Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Soil moisture, Run-off and
Vegetation.

✓ Issuance: Every 3rd week of the month

✓ Accessibility: PAGASA website

 CLIMATE MONITORING
▪ TROPICAL CYCLONE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL

✓ Maps of accumulated rainfall and track during the passage of Tropical Cyclones in the Philippine
Area of Responsibility (PAR).

✓ Issuance: every TC passage after exiting the PAR

✓ Accessibility: PAGASA website

 CLIMATE MONITORING
▪ EL NIÑO/ LA NIÑA MONITORING

✓ A monthly monitoring of the ENSO Status that serve as guide in the formulation and
implementation of El Niño/La Niña Contingency Plan.

✓ Types of Alert:
✓ EL NIÑO/ LA NIÑA Watch - Issued when conditions are favorable for the development of EL
NIÑO/ LA NIÑA within the next six months and probability is 55% or more.
✓ EL NIÑO/ LA NIÑA Alert – an upgrade from EL NIÑO/ LA NIÑA Watch; issued when ONI of +0.5C
or greater (LA NIÑA: -0.5C or lesser ) is forecasted to persist in the next 2 months or more and EL
NIÑO/ LA NIÑA is likely/probable by 70% or more** (to satisfy 5 ONI).
✓ EL NIÑO/ LA NIÑA Advisory - an upgrade from El Niño Alert. Issued whenever EL NIÑO/ LA
NIÑA is currently on-going and the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold is expected to
persist during the forecast period.
✓ Final EL NIÑO/ LA NIÑA Advisory - issued whenever an ONI value is between <0.5°C to > -0.5°C
or Neutral.

✓ Accessibility: PAGASA website and Climate Outlook Forum

 CLIMATE MONITORING
▪ IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR AGRICULTURE

✓ Assessment of agricultural performance based on the Generalized Monsoon

Indices (GMI) and the Yield Mean Indices (YMI) and other relevant extreme
weather incidents (e.g. heavy rainfall, drought, typhoon passage).
 Sub-Seasonal Forecasts
▪ 10-DAY FORECAST

✓ 10-day weather outlook for farm operations (Temperature, Rainfall, Total Cloud Cover, Rel.
Humidity, Wind) for selected Municipalities.

✓ Issuance: Daily

✓ Accessibility: PAGASA website and Payong PAGASA mobile app

 Sub-Seasonal Forecasts
▪ THE SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL FORECAST

✓ weekly (2-4weeks) Rainfall exceedance probability, Temperature and Wind Anomaly

forecast that contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

✓ Issuance: 2x a week

✓ Accessibility: PAGASA website

 Sub-Seasonal Forecasts
▪ 10-DAY AGRI-WEATHER INFORMATION

✓ 10- day agri-weather forecast and crop phenology for farm operations per Region

✓ Issuance: Every 10th day (Decadal)

✓ Accessibility: PAGASA website and Payong PAGASA mobile app

 Monthly/Seasonal Climate Forecasts
▪ MONTHLY CLIMATE ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOK ADVISORIES

✓ Assessment of the past month and forecast for the next month, includes ENSO
NARRATIVE
overview and weather systems that affected andSIMPLIFIED
will likely influence the country

✓ Issuance: Monthly

✓ Accessibiliy: PAGASA website and Payong PAGASA mobile app

 Monthly/Seasonal Climate Forecasts
▪ MONTHLY AGRO-CLIMATIC REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

✓ Assessment of the previous month and outlook of the following month for farm
advisory and crop stages.

✓ Issuance: Monthly

✓ Accessibiliy: PAGASA website and Payong PAGASA mobile app

✓ Contents: Agro-climatic review, Crop stages and farm advisories and outlook
 Monthly/Seasonal Climate Forecasts
▪ SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK ADVISORIES
NARRATIVE
✓ Climate forecast for the next six months: includes ENSO outlook and weather systems
SIMPLIFIED
that will likely influence the country, rainfall and temperature outlook

✓ Issuance: Twice a year every 6 months (January and July)

✓ Accessibility: PAGASA website

 Monthly/Seasonal Climate Forecasts
▪ MONTHLY RAINFALL, TEMPERATURE, PROBABILISTIC AND
TROPICAL CYCLONES FORECAST

✓ 6 months deterministic forecast for Temperature, deterministic and probabilistic

forecast for Rainfall and forecast number of Tropical Cyclone that will develop/enter in
the PAR.

✓ Issuance: Monthly

✓ Accessibility: PAGASA website and Climate Outlook Forum

 Monthly/Seasonal Climate Forecasts
▪ MONTHLY REGIONAL FORECAST QUICK OUTLOOK
✓ 6 months forecast: includes ENSO overview, Regional rainfall forecast and weather
systems that may affect the country

✓ Issuance: Monthly

✓ Accessibility: PAGASA website and Provincial Climate Outlook Forum

 Monthly/Seasonal Climate Forecasts
▪ EL NIÑO/ LA NIÑA ADVISORIES
✓ El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status; “Advisories” Issued whenever a EL NIÑO/ LA NIÑA is currently
on-going and the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold is expected to persist during the forecast
period.
✓ Includes assessment of the past month and forecast for the next month, includes ENSO overview and
weather systems that affected and will likely influence the country

✓ Issuance: every when there is occurrence of El Nino/La Nina

✓ Accessibility: PAGASA website and Climate Outlook Forum

 Monthly/Seasonal Climate Forecasts
▪ DROUGHT AND DRY SPELL ASSESSMENT AND FORECAST

✓ Meteorological Drought and Dry Spell assessment for the past months and forecast for the next six months
particularly during El Nino events

✓ Issuance: As need arises when there is continuous rainfall reduction based on rainfall criteria

✓ Accessibility: PAGASA website and Climate Outlook Forum

 Monthly/Seasonal Climate Forecasts
▪ PRESS RELEASE

✓ Issued for Onset and Termination of:

*Northeast Monsoon (Amihan)
*Southwest Monsoon (Habagat)
*Rainy Season
*Includes other climate phenomena development (i.e., El Nino/La Nina)

✓ Press Briefing, PAGASA website, PAGASA official social media account, Mass Media and
PAGASA climate outlook forum
 Climate Change
▪ CLIMATE PROJECTIONS FOR THE PHILIPPINES
✓ Climate projections for the Philippines by province for temperature and precipitation based from all available
downscaled climate change data that were simulated under three scenarios; A1B (Socioeconomic driven
scenarios), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (Emission-driven scenarios); Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)
 CLIMATE MONITORING
Time Covered/
Type of information Area Covered Description Where/How to access
Issuance
Daily Rainfall and Daily to Nationwide Daily Monitoring of Rainfall (Past 3 days, • PAGASA website
Monthly/ Daily Actual Month and Past Month Percent • Payong PAGASA
Temperature
Normal) and Temperature (Tmax, Tmin mobile app
Monitoring and Extremes)
Monthly Monitoring Monthly/ Nationwide weekly (2-4weeks) Rainfall exceedance • PAGASA website
Every 3rd probability, Temperature and Wind
Products
Week Anomaly forecast that contribute to fill the
gap between weather and seasonal time
scales.
Tropical Cyclone every TC Nationwide Maps of accumulated rainfall and tracks • PAGASA website
passage/ after during the passage of Tropical Cyclones.
Associated Rainfall
exiting the
PAR
El Niño/ La Niña Monthly Nationwide PAGASA ENSO Alert System Status e.g. • PAGASA website
El Niño/ La Niña ALERT, WATCH, • Climate Outlook
Monitoring
ADVISORY or NEUTRAL Forum

Impact Assessment • Monthly • Regional Assessment of agricultural performance • PAGASA website

based on the Generalized Monsoon
for Agriculture
Indices (GMI) and the Yield Mean Indices
(YMI) and other relevant extreme weather
incidents (e.g. heavy rainfall, drought,
typhoon passage)
 Sub-Seasonal Forecasts
Type of information Time Covered/ Issuance Area Covered Description Where/How to access

10-day Forecast Running 10 days/ Nationwide 10-day forecast of • PAGASA website

updated daily rainfall, temperature and • Payong PAGASA
other weather mobile app
parameters per city/
municipality
Sub-Seasonal to Weekly/ updated Nationwide weekly (2-4weeks) • PAGASA website
twice per week Rainfall, Temperature
Seasonal and Wind forecast that
Forecast contribute to fill the gap
between weather and
seasonal time scales.
10-day Agri- 10 days/Every 10th Regional 10- day agri-weather • PAGASA website
day (Decadal) forecast and crop • Payong PAGASA
weather phenology for farm mobile app
Information operations per Region
 Monthly/Seasonal Climate Forecasts
Type of information
1 MONTH
Monthly Climate Assessment
and Outlook Advisories
Monthly Agro-climatic Review
and outlook
2-6 MONTHS
Seasonal Climate Assessment
and Outlook Advisories
Monthly Rainfall Forecast
Monthly Temperature Forecast
Monthly Rainfall Probabilistic
Forecast
Monthly Tropical
Cyclone Forecast
Monthly Regional Forecast
Quick Outlook
Time Covered/ Issuance Area Covered Description Where/How to access
Monthly/ Monthly Nationwide Assessment of the past month and forecast for the • PAGASA website
next month, includes ENSO overview and weather • Payong PAGASA mobile app
systems that affected and will likely influence the
country
Monthly Nationwide Assessment of the previous month and outlook of the • PAGASA website
following month for farm advisory and crop stages • Payong PAGASA mobile app
6 months/ 2x a year every Nationwide Climate forecast for the next six months: includes • PAGASA website
6 months ENSO outlook and weather systems that will likely
influence the country, rainfall and temperature outlook
6 months/ Monthly Nationwide Monthly issuance of 6 months deterministic forecast • PAGASA website
for rainfall • PAGASA climate outlook forum
6 months/ Monthly Nationwide Monthly issuance of 6 months deterministic forecast • PAGASA website
temperature • PAGASA climate outlook forum
6 months/ Monthly Nationwide Monthly issuance of 6 months probabilistic forecast • PAGASA website
• PAGASA climate outlook forum
Monthly/ Monthly Nationwide Forecast number of Tropical Cyclone that will develop/ • PAGASA website
enter in the PAR • PAGASA climate outlook forum
Monthly/ Monthly Regional Monthly issuance of Rainfall forecast and climate • PAGASA website
outlook per Region. • PAGASA climate outlook forum
 Monthly/Seasonal Climate Forecasts
Type of information Time Covered/ Issuance Area Covered Description Where/How to access

ADVISORIES/PRESS RELEASE
El Niño/ La Niña During occurrence of Nationwide Includes assessment of the previous • PAGASA website
ENSO phenomena/ month and forecast for the next • PAGASA official social
Advisories Monthly month, includes ENSO overview, media account
weather systems that affected and • Mass Media
will likely influence the country and • PAGASA climate outlook
rainfall and temperature outlook forum

Drought and Dry Spell As need arises Nationwide Meteorological Drought and Dry • PAGASA website
(During El Nino Spell assessment for the past • PAGASA climate outlook
assessment and forecast occurrences) months and forecast for the next six forum
months particularly during El Nino
events
Press Release/Statement During significant Nationwide Issued for Onset and Termination of: • PAGASA website
climate phenomena *Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) • PAGASA official social
*Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) media account
*Rainy Season • Mass Media
Includes other climate phenomena • PAGASA climate outlook
(i.e., ENSO) forum