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Design

Reliability Measures & Models

1
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Design
Learning Objectives

Understand the basic measures for reliability.

Know the three 3 basic lifetime distributions.

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Design
Basic Measures For Reliability

1. Reliability function
R(t) = P (TTF > t)
2. Mean time to failure (MTTF)
+
E(TTF) =  tf (t )dt
−
3. Percentile of TTF (TT F p )
Time by which p% of the population would have
failed.
4. Failure rate/Hazard function (h(t))
h(t) = f(t)/R(t)
 6s
Design Percentile of TTF

F(y)

70%

20%

TTF(20) TTF(70) time

 6s
Design Hazard Rate

• h(y) = f(y)/[1-F(y)] = f(y)/R(y)

• Measure proneness to failure as a function of age.
• Consider the next time interval t.
• h(y) t = Probability of failure in t, GIVEN it
survived up to t.
• Note that h(y) is not a probability but h(y) t is
provided that t is small.
• In electronic industry, the unit of measure for h(y) is
FIT. 1 FIT = ppm at 1000 device hours
 6s
Design Hazard Function h(y)

Typically, one wants to know if h(y) is increasing or

decreasing with age.
Occurs when one failure is dominant
Examples: in the beginning and another is
dominant near end of life.
h(y) h(y)
Infant Mortality
2/q Wear-out

1/q Useful life

0
0 q 2q 3q Burn-In Replace
0

Exponential “Bathtub curve”

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 6s
Design
Useful Lifetime Distributions

All Models are wrong; but some are useful

• Exponential : EXP() or EXP(q)

 is the hazard rate; q is the MTTF
• Weibull : WEI(, )
 = shape,  = scale
• Lognormal : LN(, s)
, s is the mean and std.dev of log(life)
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Design
Exponential : EXP()
R(t)
1

R = 0.368

This means that time

t= q =1/ 
63.2% has failed
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Design
Exponential Distribution
• Reliability Function :
R(t) = P(TTF >t)
R(t) = exp(-t/q) = exp(-  t)
• MTTF = q = 1/ 
• Hazard rate = 
• TTFp = – q ln(1-p)
 6s
Design Weibull : WEI(, )
 = shape,  = scale f(y)
=4
0.5
➢ Reliability Function 1 2

 t   0
3
 −   0 1 2
     F(y)

R(t ) = e
=4
 
,t  0 2
1
0.5
0.5

➢MTTF =  (1+1/ ) 0
1 3
2
 −1
   t  h(y)  = 4 2
➢Hazard rate =      2

 − ln(1 − p)1 /  1 1
➢TTFp = 0.5
0
0 1 2 3
 6s
Design Example: Weibull TTF

The Weibull distribution with  = 2 and  = 122,000 hours is

used to describe the hours to failure of a disc drive design
caused by a specific failure mode denoted fm1.

➢Under 2 years warranty, assuming worse case scenario of

continuous operation, we have
− ( y  ) −(17,500 122,000)2
R( y ) = e =e = 0.98
That is, 2% of the drives will be returned under warranty.

➢MTTF =  (1+1/ ) = 122000 (1.5 ) =108120

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 6s
Design Lognormal Distribution LN(, s)

 and s are the mean and standard deviation of log life

➢ Reliability function
R( y ) = 1 − (log( y ) −  ) s , y  0
f(y)
s = 0.1
➢ MTTF =
 1 2
exp  + s 
 2 
0.5
1.0
0
10 2x10 3x10

 
0

TTFp = exp  + s  −1( p )

➢Hazard rate : increases to a maximum point (at critical time)

then gradually decreases to zero.
 6s
Design Example : Reliability Measures and Models

It was found that the time to failure of a product may

follow
• Exponential distribution with failure rate  = 1 in
1000 days.
• Weibull distribution with  = 0.5 and = 500 days
• Lognormal with  = 6 and s = 1.35.
What are the mean time to failure and the time at
which we would expect 50% of a lot of the above
product to have failed (ie. medium time to failure) for
each of the 3 cases.

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Is MTTF a Good Measure?
• Exponential distribution with  = 1 in 1000 days
MTTF = 1000 days
Median time to failure= -1000 ln(1-0.5) = 693 days
• Weibull ( = 0.5 and = 500)
MTTF = 500 (1+1/0.5 ) = 500 (3) = 1000 days
Median = 500  − ln(1 − 0.5)1 / 0.5 = 240
• LN( = 6 , s = 1.35)
 1 
MTTF = exp 6 + (1.35)2  = 1004
 2 
TTF50 = exp6 = 403

Breakthrough
 6s Exercise
Design

The Exponential distribution with q = 122,000 hours is used

to describe the hours to failure of a disc drive design caused
by a specific failure mode denoted fm2.

Determine the fraction of disc drives that will survive a two

year (y = 17.5k hours) warranty.

What is the “typical” life of a drive?

Given a drive survives to time 130,000, what is the

probability of failure by time 130,001?

Is a drive more/less/equally likely to fail over time?

Breakthrough
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Design

End of Section

16
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Design

Reliability Life Testing

17
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Design
Learning Objectives

Understand simple reliability tests.

Interval estimate for constant failure rate.

How to design simple test plans under
constant failure rate.
 6s
Design Reliability Life Testing

Some of the other important engineering considerations are :

• Purposes of the Test
• Test Plans
This includes the stress levels, sample sizes for each level and
the levels of other factors which may affect the life of the
product.
• Specimen
Specimens used in a test may be different from the
actual product and their life may be different from that of the
products.
• Test conditions Vs Use condition
Ideally, test conditions should reproduce use conditions but this
is often not possible. It is thus important to distinguish between
test reliability and field reliability.
Breakthrough
 6s
Design Simple Reliability Tests
• Failure censored(Type II)
• Complete data :
unit time
All failed
= failure

• Time censored(Type I)
unit time • Multiply censored
unit
failures time

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Estimation with Exponential TTF

• Assume failure time follows exponential distribution

with mean q. The MLE of q is
ˆ Total time on test TTT
q= =
Number of failures r
• Similarly the MLE for  is
Number of failures r
̂ = =
Total time on test TTT
r
TTT =  tr + (n − r )  max( tr , T ) T = test duration
i =1

Breakthrough
 6s
Interval Estimate of 
Design

• Failure censored (type II) at the r th failure. The exact

100(1-)% confidence interval of  is
ˆ 22r ,1− / 2 ˆ 22r , / 2
 
2r 2r

• Time censored (type I) with r observed failures. The

approximate 100(1-)% confidence interval of  is
ˆ 22r ,1− / 2 ˆ 22( r +1), / 2
 
2r 2r

Breakthrough
 6s
Exercise : Interval Estimate for q
Design

What are the 100(1-)% confidence intervals for q

under both time and failure censoring?

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 6s
Design Example

A sample of 20 electronic modules was tested for 30 days during

which 9 units fail. Examination of the failed units indicates that
none of the failures is due to defective manufacture. The failure
times (in days) are 27.4, 13.5, 10.5, 20.0, 23.6, 29.1, 27.7, 5.1,
14.4. Estimate the MTTF.
9
TTT =  tr + (20 − 9) 30 = 171.3 + 330 = 501.3
i =1

ˆ Total time on test 501.3

q= = = 55.7 days
Number of failures 9
2  TTT 2rqˆ 2rqˆ 2  TTT
= 2 q  2 = 2
 2( r +1), / 2  2( r +1), / 2
2
 2r ,1− / 2  2r ,1− / 2

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Exercise

The engineer in charge of the test in the preceding problem

decides to continue to test until 10 of the 20 units have failed.
The tenth failure occurs at 41.2 days, at which time the test is
terminated. Estimate the MTTF. What is the 90% confidence
interval?

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 6s
Design
Percentage Survival Test
• This is the situation where only the fraction survive at the
end of the test is recorded.
• Failure times are not monitored nor failed item being
replaced.
• Applicable in the event of destructive testing.
• The reliability at the end of the test time t* can be
estimated by R(t*) = 1 - r/n since R(t) = P(TTF >t)
• R(t*) = exp(-t*/q) = 1 - r/n
t* t*
qˆ = =
  r   r 
ln 1 1 −  − ln 1 − 
  n   n 
 6s
Design Example : A Storage Reliability Problem

A National Guard unit is supplied with 20,000 rounds of

ammunition for a new model rifle. After 5 years, 18,200 rounds
remain unused. From these 200 rounds are chosen randomly and
test-fired. Twelve of them misfire. Assuming that the misfires are
random failures of the ammunition caused by storage conditions,
estimate the MTTF.
ˆ t* t*
q= =
  r   r 
ln 1 1 −  − ln 1 − 
  n   n 
5
= = 81 years
 12 
− ln 1 − 
 200 

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Demonstrating Minimum MTTF

In some situations, particularly in setting specifications, we are

not interested in the MTBF, but only in assuring that it be
greater than some specified value.
Example : A computer specification calls for an MTBF of at
least 100hr with 90% confidence. If a prototype fails for the first
time at 210hr, can these test data be used to demonstrate that the
specification has been met?

ˆ Total time on test TTT

q= = = 210
Number of failures r

2  TTT 2  210
q   q  91.2  q
 2r
2
,  22,0.1

Breakthrough
 6s
Design
What if there is No Failure?
• Suppose that a test ended at time T without any failure.
• Point estimate of MTTF = 
• Common practice is to use the lower confidence limit
where  = 0.4.
• Recall that for time censored (type I) we have:

2  TTT 2rqˆ
= q
 2( r +1),
2
 2( r +1),
2

2  TTT TTT
q =
 22, − ln( )

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Example

200 electronic modules were tested for 2000 hrs without any
failure. The engineer in-charge quickly added another 200 units
to the test, hoping for obtaining some failures. 3000 hrs later,
test was terminated with no failure. Give a 60% conservative
estimate of MTTF.

TTT = 200  5000 + 200  3000 = 1.6  10 6

TTT
q 60% = = 1.746  106 hrs
− ln( 0.4)

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 6s
Design Test Plans Under Exponential Assumption

• What is the sample size ?

• What is the test duration ?

• Minimum Sample size Test
• Minimum Duration Test

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Sample Size Determination

Given
• A MTTF objective
• Desired confidence level
• test duration
• allowable number of failure
The sample size is given by

q obj   22( r +1),

n=
2T

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Example

Suppose we wish to be 90% confident of meeting a

MTTF specification of 10K hrs and that the test time
available is 500 hrs. What is the sample size if the
allowable number of failure is 5?

12,0.1
2
= 18.55
q obj  18.55 10,000  18.55
n= = = 185.5
2T 2  500

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Test Duration

Given
• A MTTF objective
• Desired confidence level
• sample size
• allowable number of failure
The test duration is given by

q obj   22( r +1),

T=
2 n

Breakthrough
 6s
Design
Example
Suppose we wish to stop a test after 11 failures and a
preliminary estimate for MTTF is 10K hrs. What is the
test duration given n=100 and =10%?

 24,0.1
2
= 33.2
q obj  33.2 10,000  33.2
T= = = 1660
2 n 2  100

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Pass/Fail Criteria

Given
• A MTTF objective
• Desired confidence level
• sample size
• test duration
What is maximum number of failures allowable so as
to sentence a lot?
2 n T
 2( r +1), =
2
q obj

Breakthrough
 6s
Design
Example
Suppose that a sample of 50 units are to be tested for
2000 hrs. We want to be 80% sure that the MTTF is at
least 20K hrs. What is the allowable number of failure?
2 n T 2  50  2000
 22( r +1), = = = 10
q obj 20,000

r 1 2 3
 2( r +1),0.1
2
7.78 10.64 13.36

Allowable r = 1

Breakthrough
 6s
Design
Minimum Sample Size Test
• Suppose that test unit is expensive and minimum
sample size is desirable.
• Given
• A MTTF objective
• Desired confidence level
• test duration
• The minimum sample size is

− ln( )  q obj
n* =
T

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Example

Suppose we wish to determine the minimum sample size

to verify a 40K hr MTTF with 90% confidence, given
that the test must end by 8000hr.

− ln( )  q obj
n* =
T
− ln( 0.1)  40,000
= = 12
8000

Breakthrough
 6s
Design
Minimum Duration Test
• We want to know the duration of the test to verify a
very low failure rate of 10 FIT with 80% confidence with
a sample size of 10,000.
− ln( )  q obj − ln( )
T* = =
n n  obj
− ln( 0.2)
= −9
= 16094
10,000  10  10

• This is about 2 years which is not practical. Need ALT.

Breakthrough
 6s
Design

End of Section

41
Breakthrough
 6s
Design Seagate

Reliability Analysis

42
Breakthrough
 6s
Design
Learning Objectives

How to analyze reliability data

How to handle censored data

Breakthrough
 6s
Design
Optimize Phase
Reconsider
Optimize Tolerancing Spec allocation,
• Determine tolerancing model Target, Variance
•Linear or non-linear? (MAIC?)
•Normal or non-normal?
• Calculate tolerances

Assess Performance
• Assess capability & reliability to achieve
Critical Design Parameters and meet CTQ limits
• Flow KPIV’s/KPOV’s up to predict performance -
Sensitivity Analysis

Not Acceptable Not Acceptable

Performance Acceptable?
Revisit Design
Capability Acceptable?

Move on to Validate Acceptable

Breakthrough
 6s Want to Make a Statement about...
Design

➢ the percentage of product surviving to time t

➢ the probability of a unit surviving to time t

➢ the Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) or

Mean Time To Failure (MTTF)

➢ whether failure is likely to be more or less

imminent over time

➢ how to separate statements based on specific

failure modes

WITH some level of confidence!

Breakthrough
 6s To Answer These Questions
Design
We Need to Know...

➢ Type of distribution
➢ Probability density function
➢ Cumulative density function
➢ Reliability or Survival function
➢ Hazard rate function
➢ Censoring
➢ Type of testing (Accelerated vs. Normal conditions)
And we want a good test plan design to give this information
as efficiently as possible.

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Minitab

Basic Instructions for Minitab

Analyzing Uncensored / Unaccelerated Reliability data

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Fitting a Distribution

Select “Stat”,
“Reliability/Survival” and
“Distribution ID Plot...”.

Enter the “Variables:” and click

on “OK”.

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Minitab Output

Four-way Probability Plot for Lifetime

No censoring
Normal Lognormal
99 99

95 95
90 90
80 80
70 70
Percent

Percent
60 60
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
5 5

1 1

-100000 0 100000 200000 300000 1000 10000 100000 1000000

Exponential Weibull
99 99
95
90
98
75
97 60
95 40
Percent

Percent

30
90 20

10
80
70 5
60 3
50
2
30
10 1

0 100000 200000 300000 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Analyzing Data

Select “Stat”, “Reliability/Survival”

and “Distribution Overview
Plot...”.

Enter the “Variables:”, select

the type of “Parametric
analysis Distribution:” and
click on “OK”.

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Minitab Output

A drive has
approximately a After approx.
53% chance of the first 50k
surviving 4 hours the
years (approx. drive is less
35000 hrs), but likely to fail
with what over time.
confidence??!!

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Analysis of Reliability Data

Select “Six Sigma”,

“Reliability/Survival” and
“Parametric Dist Analysis-Right
Cens...”.

Enter the “Variables:”, select

the type of “Parametric
analysis Distribution:” and
click on “Estimate...” and
“Graphs...”.

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Fitting a Distribution

Enter the “Percentiles”, the times you

want to know the reliability or
“Survival probability” and
“Confidence level:” (note: when
interested in only the one-sided (1−) x
100% CI, change the confidence level to
(1−2) x 100%, i.e. for a one-sided 95%
confidence interval, enter 90.0).

Click on “Survivial plot”,

“Display confidence intervals
on above plots” and “Hazard
plot”.

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Minitab Output

To determine
99% of the the fit with
drives will, with some
95% confidence, confidence,
survive at least examine the
1018 hours. points to see
if they are all
within the
A drive has, with limits.
95% confidence,
a 59% chance of
surviving at least
2 years, and a
38% chance of
surviving at least
4 years.

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Exercise

Reliability testing was conducted on 30 disc

drives over a three month test. The data is
contained in file “Rel 2.MPJ”.

Determine, with 99% confidence, how long

90% of the drives will survive.

State with 99% confidence the probability of

a drive surviving 1 yr (8500 hrs) warranty.

Are the drives more/less/equally likely to

fail over time?

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Solution

90% of the
drives will, with
99% confidence,
survive at least
36 hours.

A drive has, with

99% confidence,
a 0% chance of
surviving at least
one year.

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Censored Data

Sometimes test unit times are censored because

➢ inspection is destructive (have to take them apart

to determine if they failed)

➢ they cannot be continuously monitored

➢ some units are still running at end of test

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Types of Censoring

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Right Censored Data

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Arbitrarily/Interval Censored Data

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Frequency Columns

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Minitab

Basic Instructions for Minitab

Analyzing Censored Reliability data

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Analysis of Reliability Data

Select “Six Sigma”,

“Reliability/Survival” and
“Parametric Dist Analysis-Right
Cens...”.

Enter the “Variables:”, select

the type of “Parametric
analysis Distribution:” and
click on “Censor...”,
“Estimate...” and “Graphs...”.

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Fitting a Distribution

Enter the “Percentiles”, the times you want

to know the reliability or “Survival
probability” and “Confidence level:”.

Click on “Survivial plot”, “Display

confidence intervals on above plots” and
“Hazard plot”.

Enter the “censoring columns:”

and click on “OK”.
 6s
Design Exercise

Reliability testing was conducted on 30 disc

drives over a three month test. The right censored
data is contained in file “Rel 2.MPJ”. Analyze the data
by including the censoring information.

Determine, with 99% confidence, how long

90% of the drives will survive.

State with 99% confidence the probability of

a drive surviving 1 yr (8500 hrs) warranty.

Are the drives more/less/equally likely to

fail over time?

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Solution

90% of the
drives will, with
99% confidence,
survive at least
311 hours.

A drive has, with

99% confidence,
a 6% chance of
surviving at least
one year.

An improvement over not using the censoring information but still pretty bad overall

Breakthrough
 6s
Design Summary

Confidence levels should be considered when

making reliability statements.

Extrapolation far outside the region of data is

highly variable.

Censored data provides valuable information.

Tracking the failure modes can be useful for

establishing reliability associated with particular
failures.
Breakthrough
 6s
Design

End of Module

68
Breakthrough