Historical Results Forecast Period

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Balance Sheet Check OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK

Assumptions
LIVE SCENARIO
Revenue Growth (% Change) 15.8% 11.2% 8.4% 5.9% 10.3% 9.0% 8.4% 8.4% 9.0%
Cost of Goods Sold (% of Revenue) 39.3% 40.7% 38.7% 37.2% 37.6% 38.7% 38.6% 38.1% 38.0% 38.2%
Salaries and Benefits (% of Revenue) 25.9% 19.2% 18.2% 16.2% 16.7% 19.2% 17.9% 17.6% 17.5% 17.8%
Rent and Overhead 10,963 10,125 10,087 11,020 11,412 10,721 10,673 10,783 10,922 10,902
Depreciation & Amortization (% of PP&E) 41.3% 40.3% 44.1% 47.3% 50.3% 44.7% 45.3% 46.3% 46.8% 46.7%
Interest (% of Debt) 5.0% 5.0% 3.8% 5.0% 5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.6% 4.8% 4.8%
Tax Rate (% of Earnings Before Tax) 43.6% 29.2% 30.4% 29.2% 29.1% 32.3% 30.0% 30.2% 30.2% 30.4%
Accounts Receivable (Days) 18 16 16 17 19 17 17 17 17 18
Inventory (Days) 71 73 71 73 73 72 72 72 72 72
Accounts Payable (Days) 36 37 35 36 37 36 36 36 36 36
Capital Expenditures ($000's) 15,950 11,205 12,544 13,080 13,195 12,506 12,831 12,903 12,859
Debt Issuance (Repayment) ($000's) - (10,000) (10,000) - - - - - -
Equity Issued (Repaid) ($000's) - - - - - - - - -

Income Statement
Reveneue 102,007 118,086 131,345 142,341 150,772 166,334 181,239 196,453 212,955 232,162
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) 40,050 48,004 50,800 52,900 56,710 64,327 69,878 74,921 80,984 88,690
Gross Profit 61,957 70,082 80,545 89,441 94,062 102,007 111,361 121,532 131,971 143,473
Expenses
Salaries and Benefits 26,427 22,658 23,872 23,002 25,245 31,994 32,442 34,660 37,344 41,352
Rent and Overhead 10,963 10,125 10,087 11,020 11,412 10,721 10,673 10,783 10,922 10,902
Depreciation & Amortization 19,500 18,150 17,205 16,544 16,080 14,290 14,007 13,620 13,381 13,129
Interest 2,500 2,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,425 1,410 1,392 1,445 1,434
Total Expenses 59,390 53,433 52,664 52,066 54,237 58,430 58,533 60,455 63,093 66,818
Earnings Before Tax 2,567 16,649 27,881 37,376 39,825 43,576 52,828 61,078 68,878 76,655

Taxes 1,120 4,858 8,483 10,908 11,598 14,080 15,872 18,456 20,785 23,283
Net Earnings 1,447 11,791 19,398 26,467 28,227 29,497 36,956 42,622 48,094 53,372

Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash 66,372 79,264 95,528 115,288 144,809 174,691 211,951 254,064 301,126 353,001
Accounts Receivable 5,000 5,200 5,900 6,500 7,800 7,830 8,461 9,276 10,153 11,162
Inventory 7,805 9,601 9,825 10,531 11,342 12,703 13,835 14,803 16,069 17,586
Property & Equipment 47,200 45,000 39,000 35,000 32,000 30,905 29,403 28,614 28,136 27,865
Total Assets 126,376 139,065 150,252 167,319 195,951 226,128 263,651 306,757 355,483 409,614

Liabilities
Accounts Payable 3,902 4,800 4,912 5,265 5,671 6,351 6,918 7,402 8,035 8,793
Debt 50,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000
Total Liabilities 53,902 54,800 44,912 35,265 35,671 36,351 36,918 37,402 38,035 38,793
Shareholder's Equity
Equity Capital 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000
Retained Earnings 2,474 14,265 35,340 62,053 90,280 119,777 156,733 199,355 247,449 300,821
Shareholder's Equity 72,474 84,265 105,340 132,053 160,280 189,777 226,733 269,355 317,449 370,821
Total Liabilities & Shareholder's Equity 126,376 139,065 150,252 167,319 195,951 226,128 263,651 306,757 355,483 409,614

Supporting Schedules

Working Capital Schedule

Accounts Receivable 5,000 5,200 5,900 6,500 7,800 7,830 8,461 9,276 10,153 11,162
Inventory 7,805 9,601 9,825 10,531 11,342 12,703 13,835 14,803 16,069 17,586
Accounts Payable 3,902 4,800 4,912 5,265 5,671 6,351 6,918 7,402 8,035 8,793
Net Working Capital (NWC) 8,902 10,000 10,812 11,765 13,471 14,181 15,379 16,677 18,187 19,955
Change in NWC 1,098 812 953 1,706 710 1,197 1,298 1,510 1,768

Depreciation Schedule
PPE Opening 47,200 45,000 39,000 35,000 32,000 30,905 29,403 28,614 28,136
Plus Capex 15,950 11,205 12,544 13,080 13,195 12,506 12,831 12,903 12,859
Less Depreciation 18,150 17,205 16,544 16,080 14,290 14,007 13,620 13,381 13,129
PPE Closing 47,200 45,000 39,000 35,000 32,000 30,905 29,403 28,614 28,136 27,865

Debt & Interest Schedule

Debt Opening 50,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000
Issuance (repayment) - (10,000) (10,000) - - - - - -
Debt Closing 50,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000
Interest Expense 1,425 1,410 1,392 1,445 1,434
DCF Model
Assumptions
Tax Rate 28%
Discount Rate 10%
Perpetual Growth Rate 3%
Current Price 25.00
Shares Outstanding 20,000

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

EBIT 45,001 54,238 62,470 70,324 78,089
Cash Taxes 12,600 15,187 17,491 19,691 21,865
NOPAT 32,401 39,051 44,978 50,633 56,224
Add: Depn & Amort 14,290 14,007 13,620 13,381 13,129
Less: Change in WC 710 1,197 1,298 1,510 1,768
Less: Capex 13,195 12,506 12,831 12,903 12,859
FCFF 32,786 39,356 44,469 49,601 54,727
TV 805273
FCFF including 32786 39356 44469 49601 860000
Computation of Intrinsic Value Per Share
Enterprise value 663,612
Less: Net Debt (114,809)
Equity Value 778,421

Equity Value Per share 39