Exploration: Mathematics Analysis and

Approaches SL

Modelling the Rate of Increase of Global

Warming and Extrapolate the Increase in
Average Global Temperature in 2030
 Table of Contents

Introduction 2

Data 4

Graph 5

Choice of Model 6
Exponential 7
Polynomial 8
Logarithmic 10

Extrapolation 10

Reflection 12

Conclusion 13

References 15

1
Introduction

2020 now ranks the second hottest year on earth, with the average land and ocean temperatures
being 0.98°C above the 20th-century average. The average global temperature per year is on a
rise, causing many detrimental side effects. We’ve already begun to see some of these effects
with the Sudden Stratospheric Warming in the Arctic and the number of endangered animals on
the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List rising to 41,415 species. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a report stating that a 45% fall in
carbon emissions by 2030 are needed to prevent the world's average temperature from rising
more than 1.5°C. This is crucial to avert what is described by the U.S. Special Presidential
Envoy for Climate, John F. Kerry, as “the worst consequences of climate change”.

Figure 1: 5 year average temperature difference in Fahrenheit in 1965

Photo Source: NASA/GISS

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Figure 2: 5 year average temperature difference in Fahrenheit in 2020

Photo Source: NASA/GISS

We, the youth today, are the future of the world, and it is crucial that we work in order to
alleviate the issue at hand. After all, we will be the ones suffering the consequences. It saddened
me to learn that more than 90% of the 16-year-olds today will see a 2°C warmer world in their
future, (Menke) and that my children won’t be able to see an orangutan, (Ferber) an animal
native to the country I come from. Although children today have a higher life expectancy, the
impacts of global warming may outweigh this. In order to take the necessary steps to lessen the
effects of global warming, we have to observe and keep track of the average global temperatures
per year. Therefore, in this investigation, I will be modelling functions in order to extrapolate the
data to predict the average global temperature in 2030.

The data used is from NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), with the base year
being 1965, for simplicity’s sake.

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Data

The data is presented in the form of a table, with representing the year and representing the
mean increase in annual global temperature from 1965 to 2020.

Table 1: The Mean Annual Global Temperature in Degrees Celsius from Year 0 to 55
Year Mean Increase in Annual Year Mean Increase in Annual
(0=1965) Global Temperature/°C (0=1965) Global Temperature/°C
0 -0.11 28 0.23
1 -0.06 29 0.31
2 -0.02 30 0.44
3 -0.08 31 0.33
4 0.05 32 0.46
5 0.03 33 0.61
6 -0.08 34 0.38
7 0.01 35 0.39
8 0.16 36 0.54
9 -0.07 37 0.63
10 -0.01 38 0.62
11 -0.1 39 0.54
12 0.18 40 0.68
13 0.07 41 0.64
14 0.16 42 0.67
15 0.26 43 0.54
16 0.32 44 0.66
17 0.14 45 0.72
18 0.31 46 0.61
19 0.16 47 0.64
20 0.12 48 0.68
21 0.18 49 0.75
22 0.32 50 0.9
23 0.39 51 1.02
24 0.27 52 0.92
25 0.45 53 0.85
26 0.4 54 0.98
27 0.22 55 1.02
Data source: NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)
Credit: NASA/GISS

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Graph

The following scatter plot was created from the data in the table above. is plotted as the year
and plotted as the Mean Increase in Annual Global Temperature per Degree Celsius.

Graph 1: Scatter graph of the mean global temperature per year

The graph in Diagram 1 has a lot of fluctuations, however, showing an overall gradual increase
in the mean global temperature over the years. If looked at at a smaller scale, for example, for 10
years only, it would be very difficult to find a pattern. However, when looking at the trend on a
larger scale over time, we see a dramatic increase.

After year 11, there are no more negative values on the -axis, which shows the point where the
mean temperature started increasing. At year 51, we observe the temperature reaching its overall
peak at 1.02°C. The graph shows a sharp decline in the mean temperature after every peak, as
displayed at years 8, 18, 25, 33 and 51, at years 1973, 1983, 1990, 1998 and 2016 respectively.
The growth too, slows down noticeably after every peak. This could be due to the fact the
population might have gotten worried after observing a surge in years 8, 18, 25, 33 and 51 and
took measures to actively reduce the effects of global warming, therefore, the increase in the
following years after the peak being significantly lower. This however, is just an assumption as
there is no research published to explain the phenomenon.

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On that account, it would not be surprising for the mean temperature to surge after year 55, as
there is a peak then. However, to find out by how much and at what rate, extrapolation would be
necessary.

Choice of Model

There are many different functions used for modelling, such as linear, exponential, polynomial
and logarithmic, just to name a few. An exponential function was initially chosen as it is a model
which is fairly easy to extrapolate. However, it is best used for predicting trends in the shorter
run, rather than the longer run, as it assumes future trends will be similar to current ones.
Because the end goal of this exploration is simply to extrapolate the annual global mean
temperature in 2030, I decided to try out a polynomial function, which was better for
extrapolating. It is universally well-understood, simple and easily utilized. The polynomial graph
might be ideal due to its nature of the curve, gradually increasing and peaking at the end. The
logarithmic curve was also chosen as a possibility as it is ideal for measuring rates of change.

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Exponential
An exponential graph was plotted on the scatter graph and the coefficient of determination or
, was calculated. The is a statistical measure “representing the percentage of variation in
the dependent variable explained by variation in the independent variables”, and is derived from
“the sum of squares due to the regression divided by the sum of total squares”. (Figueiredo Filho
et al.)

Graph 2: Scatter graph of the mean global temperature per year, with a trendline of a
exponential function

The value in this case is 0.873, which shows that 87.3% of the increase in annual global
mean temperature is attributed to the independent variable, which in this case is the change in
years. An value closer to 1.0 would be ideal in this investigation, to show that the data is
closer to the fitted regression line. Although 0.873 is a fairly good value to have obtained, I
wondered if another function graph would be more ideal to provide me with a value of the
coefficient of determination closer to 1.

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Polynomial
The next graph I tried was a polynomial graph to the 6th degree. This polynomial curve shows a
slow, gradual increase in the annual global mean temperature over the years, with a sharper
increase towards the end, after around the 50th year. I found this graph ideal because as
established earlier, there might be a high possibility of a surge occurring after the 55th year.

Graph 3: Scatter graph of the mean global temperature per year, with a trendline of a
polynomial graph to the 6th degree

The value for the polynomial graph is 0.926, which shows that 92.6% of the increase in
annual global mean temperature is explained by the independent variable (change in years)
increasing. As the value of this graph is higher than that of the exponential graph,
demonstrating a higher accuracy and suitability. This seemed like the ideal graph to use,
however, I wanted to try out more functions just to be certain.

As the polynomial graph to the 6th degree seemed to be visibly the most accurate, with the
closest value, I decided to try another polynomial graph, however this time to the 4th degree
to be able to obtain the most reliable model possible. The value for this graph as found to be
0.925, proving that the most accurate model thus far was still the polynomial graph to the 6th
degree, since it has a closer value to 1.

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Graph 4: Scatter graph of the mean global temperature per year, with a trendline of a
polynomial graph to the 4th degree

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Logarithmic
A logarithmic graph was then tested, however, it was found to be the most inaccurate of the
three, with an value of 0.698. This demonstrates only a 69.8% correlation between the
increase in annual global mean temperature and the year.

Graph 5: Scatter graph of the mean global temperature per year, with a trendline of a
logarithmic function

A logarithmic graph was not a good fit as it showed a decreasing trend in the data as the years
increased. This, in actuality, was not the case, therefore, with all aspects in consideration, the
polynomial graph to the 6th degree seemed to be the ideal graph to use, as it was appropriate for
extrapolation and had an value of 0.926.

Extrapolation

The equation of the polynomial graph to the 6th degree is:

.
Therefore, a graph was plotted based on the equation using an online graphing calculator,
Geogebra. As the aim of the exploration was to extrapolate the increase in the mean global
temperature in 2030 or year 65, this became the point of focus on the completed graph.

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Figure 3: Polynomial graph to the 6th degree with equation

Figure 4: Polynomial graph to the 6th degree with equation:

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From the graph, it is shown that at year 65, or 2030, the Y value is 2.31, showing a significant
rise in the rate at which the mean global temperature is increasing. This is an approximate
126.5% increase, calculated as follows:

increase in mean global - increase in mean global difference in mean global

temperature in 2030 temperature in 2020 temperature

difference in mean global temperature percentage increase in global mean

initial mean global temperature in 2020 temperature rate

Reflection

Despite the fact that the model has flaws that must be accounted for, which will be later
discussed in the conclusion, I believe I have fulfilled the aim of my investigation by producing a
relatively accurate model and using it to extrapolate the average global temperature in 2030.
Through this I also further developed my understanding of global warming, climate change and
the increase in the earth’s temperature. Of course, I was always aware of global warming as an
issue, which is why I decided to conduct this investigation. However, through this process, I
became much more educated on the extent of pertinence this issue held. I’ve always heard my
people say “When will I ever use this in real life?” when referring to mathematical theories
they’ve learnt in class. I believe that through this, I was able to apply theoretical concepts that I
have learnt in class and to independently explore an issue that I am passionate about. Without
mathematics weaved into the global issue of climate change, it would be almost impossible to
predict and quantify the effects of climate change. Without doing so, we would never realise the
gravity of the issue at hand and would not be able to actively work towards solving it.

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I reflected on the investigation and realised it would be interesting to conduct a supplementary
research on the topic at hand. As mentioned before, 90% of the 16-year-olds today will see a 2°C
warmer world in their future. Since it was found that the mean temperature would increase by
2.31°C in 2030, an interesting aspect would additionally be investigating when the 2°C mark
would be met.

Conclusion

The purpose of this investigation, to model the rate and increase of global warming and
extrapolating the increase in average global temperature in 2030 was achieved by the usage of
real data and extrapolating it with the polynomial graph to the 6th degree. Graphs were plotted
and different functions were modelled in order to find the most accurate and suitable one for the
investigation.

First, an exponential graph was used as it would be fairly easy to extrapolate. It showed an
value of 0.873, showing a relatively accurate function. However, I was certain that a more
accurate function, with a closer to 1 could be found. Therefore, I tested the model using a
polynomial function next. I chose to use a polynomial function as a polynomial curve shows a
gradual increase at the beginning with a sharper increase towards the end, which is what I had
predicted would happen, with a surge after the 55th year. I first chose to use the polynomial
function to the 6th degree, which had an ideal value of 0.926. A polynomial graph to the 4th
degree was then tested, and shown to be slightly less accurate, with a lower value. In hopes
of finding the most accurate graph, I decided to test a logarithmic function next. To my dismay, it
proved to be the least accurate function thus far, with an value of 0.698, which was furthest
to 1. Therefore, the polynomial graph to the 6th degree was chosen and used to extrapolate the
global average temperature in 2030.

As shown in Figure 3 and 4 above, the increase in mean global temperature in 2030 will be
approximately 2.31°C, showing a 126.5% increase, from 2020 to 2030. As stated earlier, the

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percentage increase in global mean temperature rate was found to be approximately 126.5%.
However, this number is not realistic in the span of 10 years because 10 years is far ahead and
the prediction becomes less true over time. Another reason that this figure may not be completely
accurate as there is a high margin of error in the model due to factors that are out of our control,
such as the cooperation of people and reduction of carbon emissions possibly occurring. Due to
the pandemic, there has been a slight decrease in carbon emissions because of the lack of
economic and social activities worldwide. The carbon emissions in 2020 fell by 6.4%
(Tollefson), which will affect the global mean temperature in 2030. However, this was not taken
into account in the exploration, showing a limitation in the results. A vital flaw causing the fairly
high margin of error is the estimation of points on the graph when extrapolating. The slope at the
last point of the graph is assumed to be the same as the slope at the next point, although in
actuality, this is not the case. With the usage of the polynomial graph, it is impossible to tell what
the gradient would be and in which direction the graph would turn. It would not be fair to assume
that the gradient would stay the same and conduct the experiment and extrapolate under those
conditions.

Despite this, the results show a weighty and increase in the mean global temperature, which we
know result in potentially dire consequences. We see through this investigation that drastic
measures and actions have to be promptly taken in order to reduce the impacts of global warming
and prevent this from occurring.

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