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2. 4 nations
Northern Ireland Wales England Scotland
3. BREXIT
- Meaning: Brexit (a portmanteau – a blend of words in which parts of multiple
words are combined into a new word, as in smog, coined by blending smoke and
fog, or motel, from motor and hotel) of "British exit") was the withdrawal of the
United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) at 23:00 GMT on 31
January 2020 (00:00 1 February CET).
- Reasons:
+ ECONOMICS
Opponents of the EU argued that it is a dysfunctional economic entity. The EU
failed to address the economic problems that had been developing since 2008… for
example, 20% unemployment in southern Europe.
The argument for remaining in the EU was that the alternative was economic
disaster. However, staying in a stagnated organization to solve British problems
seemed shortsighted and made little sense to opponents. They believed that
remaining in the European Union would make Britain follow Europe’s lead.
The European Union didn’t create the existing financial relationships. Britain’s
financial role goes back almost two centuries. The EU is a system that aligns with
financial reality. It does not create it.
Many who oppose the EU believe these institutions no longer serve a purpose. Not
only that, these organizations take control away from individual nations. Mistrust
and fear of losing control made Brexit a reasonable solution to them.
But for the supporters of the EU, such organizations are self-evidently valuable.
They may need to be tweaked but not abandoned.
The immigration crisis in Europe was a trigger. Some EU leaders argued that
aiding the refugees was a moral obligation. But EU opponents saw immigration as
a national issue, as it affected the internal life of the country. Steering clear of this
issue was an important driver for the “leave” vote.
+ Political Elitism
Finally, the political leadership of Britain faced a profound loss. The “leave” voters
rejected both the Conservative and Labour parties. Both parties had endorsed
remaining with the EU and saw many of their members go into opposition on the
issue.
Most “leave” supporters believed that the financial industry’s recklessness and
incompetence had created a disaster for many. Besides, they saw no benefit to
themselves in the success of the financial industry… even though it wasn’t true.
It’s vital to understand that Brexit was a vote against the British elite. Voters
thought politicians, business leaders, and intellectuals had lost their right to control
the system. Voters thought the elite had contempt for their values—for their
nationalism and interests.
(forbes.com)
- Impacts:
+ ON THE UK
_Growth
Uncertainty over Brexit slowed the U.K.'s growth from 2.4% in 2015 to 1.6% in
2019.14 The U.K. government estimated that Brexit would lower the U.K.’s
growth by up to 6.7% over 15 years. It assumed the current terms of free trade but
restricted immigration.
The British pound fell from $1.48 on the day of the referendum to $1.36 the next
day. That helps exports but increases the prices of imports. It has not regained its
pre-Brexit high.
_Jobs
Brexit hurts Britain's younger workers. Germany is projected to have a labor
shortage of 3 million skilled workers by 2030.17 Those jobs won't be as readily
available to the U.K.'s workers after Brexit.
Employers are having a harder time finding applicants. One reason is that EU-born
workers left the U.K., their numbers falling by 95% in 2017. This has hit the low-
skilled and medium-skilled occupations the most
_Trade
The U.K. must negotiate new trade agreements with countries outside of the EU,
which had more than 45 trade agreements with over 70 countries already in place.
_Ireland
Northern Ireland remains with the U.K. The Republic of Ireland, with which it
shares a border, stays a part of the EU. The agreement avoids a customs border
between the two Irish countries.
A customs border could have reignited The Troubles, which was a 30-year conflict
in Northern Ireland between mainly Catholic Irish nationalists and pro-British
Protestants. In 1998, it ended with the promise of no border between Northern
Ireland and Ireland. A customs border would have forced about 9,300 commuters
to go through customs on their way to and from work and school.
_London
Brexit has already depressed growth in the U.K.'s financial center of London,
which saw only 1.4% in 2018 and was close to zero in 2019. Brexit also
diminished business investment by 11% between 2016 and 2019.
+ ON THE EU
Brexit is a vote against globalization. As a result, it has weakened forces in the EU
that favor integration. Members of right-wing, anti-immigration parties are
particularly anti-EU in France and Germany. If they gained enough ground, they
could force an anti-EU vote. If either of those countries left, the EU would lose its
most robust economies and would dissolve.
On the other hand, the majority of EU citizens still strongly support the union. In a
Pew Research Center survey across 10 European nations, almost 75% say the EU
promotes peace, and 55% believe it supports prosperity. In addition, more than a
third see the role of the U.K. as diminishing.
+ ON THE US
The long-term effects of Brexit could be positive for the U.S.
The day after the Brexit vote, the currency markets were in turmoil. The euro fell
by 2% to $1.11.26 The pound fell by 8% to $1.36.16 Both increased the value of
the dollar. That strength is not good for U.S. stock markets. It makes American
shares more expensive for foreign investors.
A weak pound also makes U.S. exports to the U.K. more expensive, although that
hasn't slowed exports. In 2019, U.S. exports to the U.K. were $147.4 billion, up
from $141 billion in 2018. That's created a $21.8 billion trade surplus. Meanwhile,
imports were only $125.6 billion.
Brexit dampened business growth for companies that operate in Europe. U.S.
companies invested $851.4 billion in the U.K. in 2019. Most of this was in the
finance and insurance sector, as well as manufacturing and nonbank holding
companies. These U.S. companies previously used the U.K. as the gateway to free
trade with the EU nations. U.K. businesses, on the other hand, invested $505.1
billion in the U.S. in 2019, up 1.7% from 2018. Most of this was in manufacturing,
wholesale trade, and finance.
The U.K. was in the process of negotiating a trade deal with the U.S. in early 2021,
but these negotiations have since been on hold. The biggest stumbling block is
agriculture. The U.K. requires greater food safety and animal welfare regulations
than the U.S. does. U.K. farmers are concerned about inferior, cheaper agriculture
products putting them out of business.
(thebalancemoney.com)