Coming Out of the Woodwork: The Possibility of a

Vaccine Resistant Coronavirus

Despite high vaccination rates, the relaxation of coronavirus social
distancing measures is shown to increase the chance that a vaccine resistant virus
will emerge.
 The COVID-19 pandemic has affected everyone. To curb the spread of the coronavirus, social

distancing measures and travel restrictions have been placed globally. Many of us have grown

accustomed to wearing masks in public spaces and avoiding large gatherings. With new variants of the

virus that have popped up over these past two years, the end of the pandemic is uncertain. However, as

vaccination rates increase, social distancing measures are being lifted across various parts of the world.

While some are ready and eager to go back to normalcy, others are nervous for what this loosening in

restrictions means. This raises a multitude of questions, such as whether or not we will see case rates

increase with the elimination of social distancing, and further yet, if a vaccine-resistant variant could pop

up in the near future.

Lobinska et al. explored the answer to this very question in their paper, “Evolution of resistance

to COVID-19 vaccination with dynamic social distancing”. Specifically, the researchers searched to

answer if a relaxation in social distancing measures could increase the probability of the emergence of a

vaccine-resistant strain of the virus, despite high vaccination rates. The researchers hypothesized that less

social distancing would likely lead to the emergence of vaccine resistance. Their reasoning behind this is

that less social distancing will allow for increased virus transmission, coupled with selection pressure

caused by vaccination. Thus, the virus will still be highly transmitted if social distancing requirements are

eliminated, but very few people will actually get sick. This increase in the reproduction of the vaccine

increases the chance of a mutation arising that could lead to vaccine resistance.

To answer their question, the researchers used previous data about the pandemic to create

projections for the future. They employed mathematical models to observe the projected probability of

resistance across six different countries from data about new cases and vaccination rates over the past two

years. Through this data, they could graph the virus’ reproductive ratios and probabilities of resistance

and use this data visualization to observe the trend in the probability of resistance. If the researchers’

hypothesis is correct, the probability of resistance will show an increase over time (fig. 1a). If their

hypothesis is incorrect, the probability of resistance will show no change over time (fig. 1b).
 The results of the experiment show an upward trend in resistance with time. There are 24 graphs

shown in figure 2; four graphs for each of the six countries observed. The first of the four graphs for each

country shows the total number of new covid cases per day. The second graph shows the numbers of

susceptible, recovered, and vaccinated individuals over time. The third and fourth graphs show the

reproductive ratios and probability of resistance of the virus based on the data from the first two graphs

when inputted into a mathematical model. All of the variables are dependent on time, starting shortly

before May 2020, and ending shortly after October 2021. The pattern for all countries is quite consistent,

showing that the probability of resistance increases over time (fig. 2).

These results match the hypothesis that the probability of resistance would increase over time as

vaccination rates increase and social distancing restrictions decrease. The inferences we can draw based

on this data are that a lack of social distancing will increase the transmission rate of the virus. While many

people are vaccinated, the virus will still enter their systems, increasing its reproduction rate. Figure 2

shows this as an increase in the reproductive ratio of the virus over time. Consequentially, there is more

possibility for mutations that could lead to resistance. An unresolved question that arises in light of these

results is if this trend is observed in less densely populated areas. An additional useful graph could

measure the change in social distancing restrictions over time, so that a more direct comparison can be

made with the probability of resistance.

These results also raise ethical questions about whether or not it is worth it to eliminate social

distancing requirements in highly vaccinated areas. While there are social and economic gains of

removing social distancing requirements, a huge loss in population health is possible if a resistant virus

emerges. As of the present day, it seems as though the governments of most first-world countries have

decided that removing social distancing measures is worth the risk. Personally, I agree with this decision.

COVID-19 will likely become similar to the flu where vaccines are required seasonally. That being said, I

still plan on keeping my mask on in indoor settings and staying cautious at large gatherings. There is a

long road ahead to normalcy, but we are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.
 Figures

Figure 1a: Graph depicts the prediction if the hypothesis is correct. The probability of
resistance will increase over time.

Figure 1b: Graph depicts the prediction if the hypothesis is incorrect. The probability of
resistance will remain unchanged at some baseline value over time.
Figure 2: Graphs of the new cases per day and comparison of recovered, vaccinated, and
susceptible individuals, as well as graphs of the reproductive ratio and probability of resistance,
all over time from about the 6th of May 2020 to October 28th 2021. These four graphs are
compared across six different countries: Brazil, France, Germany, Israel, the United Kingdom,
and the United States.
 Literature Cited
Lobinska, G., Pauzner, A., Traulsen, A. et al. Evolution of resistance to COVID-19 vaccination
with dynamic social distancing. Nat Hum Behav 6, 193–206 (2022).
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01281-8