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Motilal Oswal On Gland Pharma 3
Motilal Oswal On Gland Pharma 3
Gland Pharma
Estimate change CMP: INR1,377 TP: INR1,700 (+23%) Buy
TP change
Rating change Work in progress on multiple issues
Recovery in product off-take/new launches key for growth revival
Bloomberg GLAND IN Gland Pharma’s (GLAND) 3QFY23 performance was below our expectation,
Equity Shares (m) 164 affected by lower sales across key markets due to inventory rationalization
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 226.8 / 2.8 by customers and prolonged supply chain issues.
52-Week Range (INR) 3599 / 1367 GLAND has signed a share purchase agreement with Cenexi in Jan’23 and is
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -14/-48/-64 on track for necessary regulatory approvals for the acquisition.
12M Avg Val (INR M) 941
We cut our EPS estimates by 10%/12%/11% for FY23/FY24/FY25 and lower
the PE multiple to 22x from 24x to factor in 1) lower off-take of Enoxaparin,
Financials & Valuations (INR b) 2) the gestation period on account of getting approval for an alternate
Y/E MARCH FY23E FY24E FY25E
Sales 38.2 60.1 67.3
supplier of stopper for Heparin, 3) production delays, 4) a reduction in
EBITDA 11.6 15.9 18.0 business of low-margin products, and 5) lower pricing of Heparin in India.
Adj. PAT 9.5 11.5 13.1 We arrive at TP of INR1,700, based on 22x 12M forward earnings.
EBITDA Margin (%) 26.6 22.5 23.0 Considering near-term business headwinds, we expect a 22% earnings
Cons. Adj. EPS (INR) 57.8 70.0 79.7
EPS Gr. (%) -21.7 21.2 13.8
decline YoY in FY23. However, with the resolution of issues, a better
BV/Sh. (INR) 494.0 564.0 643.7 business outlook for biologics/China and the addition of Cenexi’s business,
Ratios we expect a 17% earnings CAGR over FY23-25.
Net D:E -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 The 58% fall in the stock price in the past one year already factors in the
RoE (%) 12.4 13.2 13.2
RoCE (%) 12.5 12.7 12.2
deterioration in the business outlook. Maintain Buy.
Payout (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Favorable geography mix more than offset by lower operating leverage
Valuations 3QFY23 revenue declined 12% YoY to INR9.4b (our est: INR11b).
P/E (x) 23.8 19.7 17.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.9 13.0 11.0
India sales were down 58% YoY at INR814m (9% of sales). RoW sales
Div. Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 declined 4% YoY to INR1.9b (21% of sales). Core markets’ sales were flat YoY
FCF Yield (%) 3.4 -5.7 2.8 at INR6.6b (71% of sales).
EV/Sales (x) 4.8 3.4 3.0 Gross margin (GM) expanded by 180bp YoY to 54.5% due to a better
geography mix.
Shareholding pattern (%)
However, EBITDA margin contracted by 195bp YoY to ~31% (our estimate:
As On Dec-22 Sep-22 Dec-21
Promoter
30%), due to inferior operating leverage (employee cost/other expenses up
57.9 57.9 58.0
DII 23.1 21.9 11.7 310bp/66bp YoY as % of sales).
FII 4.7 6.1 11.3 As a result, EBITDA declined 17% YoY to INR2.9b (our est: INR3.3b).
Others 14.3 14.1 19.1 Adj. PAT fell 15% YoY to INR2.3b (our estimate: INR2.7b).
FII Includes depository receipts In 9MFY23, revenue/EBITDA/PAT fell 14%/25%/24% to INR28b/INR8.7b/
INR7b.
Highlights from the management commentary
While GLAND has largely resolved syringe-related issues, the stopper-related
issues still continue to hurt the business, particularly that of Heparin.
With respect to stopper for Heparin, GLAND has filed CB-30 with an
alternate supplier with the USFDA.
In addition, production delays in the core market also affected the 3QFY23
performance on the QoQ basis. GLAND had to shut down the Pashamylaram
facility for plant upgrades.
Enoxaparin sales came in at USD5m/USD44m for 3QFY23/9MFY23.
KPIs (Consolidated)
Y/E March FY22 FY23E FY22 FY23E
INRm 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QE
Cost Break-up
RM Cost (% of Sales) 46.5 48.5 47.3 49.4 43.7 49.1 45.5 47.2 47.9 46.5
Staff Cost (% of Sales) 7.0 7.6 7.7 8.5 11.4 9.7 10.8 10.3 7.7 10.5
Other Cost (% of Sales) 8.7 9.0 12.2 10.4 13.4 11.8 12.8 12.6 10.1 12.6
Gross Margins(%) 53.5 51.5 52.7 50.6 56.3 50.9 54.5 52.8 52.1 53.5
EBITDA Margins(%) 37.8 34.9 32.8 31.6 31.5 29.5 30.9 30.0 34.3 30.4
EBIT Margins(%) 35.6 32.4 30.2 28.8 27.4 26.0 26.9 26.4 34.2 30.3
23 January 2023 2
Gland Pharma
23 January 2023 3
Gland Pharma
Jul-22
Apr-21
Jul-22
May-21
Jun-21
Nov-21
May-22
Nov-22
May-22
Nov-22
Dec-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
Sep-22
Jan-23
Dec-20
Feb-21
Jan-23
Aug-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Mar-22
Sep-22
Oct-21
Source: MOFSL, Company, Bloomberg Source: MOFSL, Company, Bloomberg
Story in charts
Exhibit 3: Expect 33% revenue CAGR over FY23-25 Exhibit 4: Expect 13% core market sales CAGR over FY23-25
Revenues (INRb) YoY Growth (%) Core Markets (INRb) YoY Growth (%)
40. 0
36.3% 40. 0%
80. 0
57.2 70.0
35. 0
35. 0%
30. 0%
30. 0
38.2
50.0
31.5
60. 0 25. 0%
30.0
11.9
20. 0 15. 0%
8.8
40. 0
20.0 10. 0%
15. 0
30. 0
(13.1) 10.0
10. 0
-3.7% 5.0 %
20. 0
0.0 %
-
10. 0
0.0 -10.0%
0.0 (2 0.0)
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
Exhibit 5: Expect 16% ROW sales CAGR over FY23-25 Exhibit 6: Expect 10% India sales CAGR over FY23-25
ROW Sales (INRb) YoY Growth (%) India Sales (INRb) YoY Growth (%)
7.0
60.0% 80. 0%
186% 60. 0%
29.3%
12. 0 200 % 6.0
7.3%
10. 0 5.0
7.2
150 %
-16.0%
20. 0%
8.0 4.0
6.0
55% 100 %
3.0
-54.4%
0.0 %
-15%
4.0 2.0
-40.0%
0%
0.8 2.4 5.5 8.5 8.3 9.7 3.0 3.9 4.7 3.9 6.3 2.9 3.1 3.5
2.0 1.0
-60.0%
0.0
2.3 -50% 0.0 -80.0%
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
EBITDA (INRb) EBITDA Margin (%) EPS (INR) YoY Growth (%)
66.1%
90.0 90. 0%
45.8 80.0
70. 0%
44.8%
20.0 50.0
34.3
18.0 45.0
21.5% 21.2%
16.0 40.0
60.0
14.0
50.0
13.8% 30. 0%
12.0 30.0
40.0
10.0 25.0 10. 0%
8.0
6.0
20.0
15.0
30.0
20.0
4.0 10.0
2.0 6.8 5.4 7.1 9.6 13.0 15.1 11.6 15.9 18.0 5.0
10.0
- -
- -50.0%
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E FY25E
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Gland Pharma
23 January 2023 5
Gland Pharma
23 January 2023 6
Gland Pharma
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Gland Pharma
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