Measuring Crime

Week 2
September, 2022
Crime Data and the Criminal Justice System

• Public perceptions about crime and the criminal justice

system are greatly influenced by media portrayals

• “The CSI Effect”

 The Collection of Crime Data
• Most government organizations routinely collect and publish
compilations of data.
– Examples: Census Bureau, FBI, Administrative Office of US
Courts, BJS, Federal Bureau of Prisons.

– Data is often available in libraries and online.

How do we Measure Crime?
When you’re on trial for murder
But the victim tests positive for
COVID at the autopsy…
 Common Measures of Crime
• Three main sources of crime statistics:
– Police recorded crime statistics
– Victimization surveys
– Offender self-reports
 Uniform Crime Reports (UCR)
Summary Reporting Systems (SRS)

• Collects statistics from local and state law enforcement

agencies (reported by FBI).

• One of the largest datasets on crime in the U.S.

• Police agencies report information on known crime

incidents.
 Uniform Crime Reports (UCR)
Summary Reporting Systems (SRS)

• Part I Index Crimes

Violent Crime Property Crime

Aggravated assault Burglary

Murder Larceny/theft
Rape Auto-theft
Robbery Arson
 Uniform Crime Reports (UCR)
Summary Reporting Systems (SRS)

• Part II Index Crime

- Simple assault - fraud - drugs

- Stolen property - weapons - gambling
- Vandalism - prostitution - forgery/counterfeiting
- Embezzlement - sex offenses - vagrancy
- Disorderly conduct - alcohol - offenses against family
and children

Supplemental Data on homicides, hate crimes, officers assaulted

and or killed in the line of duty
 Uniform Crime Reports (UCR)
Summary Reporting Systems (SRS)

Strengths
• National coverage
• Long-term crime trends
• Link with other data from
jurisdiction
Weaknesses
• Voluntary participation
• Based on jurisdiction rather
than incident
• Annual reporting
• Hierarchy Rule
• Does not include all offenses
• Suffers from underreporting
 Uniform Crime Reports (UCR)
National Incident Based Reporting Systems (NIBRS)

• New system that replaces the UCR (starting 1/1/2021).

• NIBRS collects detailed information on 52 offenses.

• Hierarchy Rule dropped.

• UCR v. NIBRS: Idaho example (2012)

- 108 agencies reported UCR data (108 observations)
- 81,147 individual incidents reported under NIBRS

*Idaho ranked 39th among the states in population!

 Uniform Crime Reports (UCR)
National Incident Based Reporting Systems (NIBRS)

• Limitations
– More labor intensive
– Slow adoption by police agencies
– NIBRS report takes longer to put together and complete
What about the Dark Figure of Crime?
Limitations of Official Records
 Common Measures of Crime

• Victimization Surveys

• Self-Report of Offending Surveys

National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)

• Based on a nationally representative sample of households.

• Used as a measure to monitor the volume of crime,

including crimes not reported to police.

Crimes Victim Offender Crime Crime

Included Demographics Demographics Characteristics Reporting
- Rape or Sexual - Age - Age -Time and Place of Was the crime
Assault the Offense reported?
- Sex - Sex
- Robbery - Use of Weapons Reasons why the
- Race/Ethnicity - Race/Ethnicity
- Aggravated & crime was or
- Marital Status - Victim-Offender - Nature of Injury wasn’t reported
Simple Assault
Relationship
- Education - Economic
- Personal Experiences with
Larceny - Income Consequences the CJ system
National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)

Limitations:
– Does not include businesses or commercial
establishments
– Does not capture homeless of transient populations
– Does not reliably pinpoint geographic location of crime
– Not good measure of victimless crimes
– Not all crimes are measured (e.g., homicide)
– Depends on self-reported crimes by victims
 Three Measures of Violent Crime

Violent Violent Crimes UCR Crime Rate-

Victimizations Recorded by Police Arrests for Violent Violent Crimes per
Year (NCVS) (UCR) Crimes 100,000 Population
1984 5,954,000 1,273,282 493,960 540
1995 9,604,570 1,798,792 796,230 685
2004 6,726,060 1,360,088 586,558 463
2014 5,359,570 1,165,383 498,666 362
2015 5,006,620 1,197,704 505,681 374
2016 5,353,820 1,248,185 515,151 387
2017 5,612,670 1,247,321 518,617 383
2018 6,385,520 1,206,836 521,103 369
2019 5,813,410 1,203,808 495,871 367
2020 4,558,150 1,277,696 482,408 388

Sources: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics, 2016 (www.albany.edu/sourcebook/); P. Kaus and C. Maston, Criminal Victimization in
the United States, 1995, Bureau of Justice Statistics, May 2000, NCJ 171129; A. Timrots and M. DeBerry, “Criminal Victimization 1984,” Bureau of Justice Statistics
Bulletin, October 1985, NCJ 98904; H. N. Snyder and J. Mulako-Wangota, online Arrest Data Analysis Tool, Bureau of Justice Statistics website, 2014 (www.bjs.gov); J.
L. Truman and L. Langton, “Criminal Victimization, 2014,” Bureau of Justice Statistics Bulletin, September 2015, NCJ 248973; J. L. Truman and L. Langton, “Criminal
Victimization, 2013,” Bureau of Justice Statistics Bulletin, September 2014, NCJ 247068; FBI, Crime in the United States, 2014 [Uniform Crime Reports] (www.fbi.gov).
Which is a better measure of crime?
The UCR / NIBRS or the NCVS
 Self-Reporting Offending Surveys

• Ask about own personal criminal offending.

• Commonly used with “at-risk” populations (e.g.,

juveniles).

• Examples
– National Survey of Drug Use and Health (NSDUH)
– Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Study (YRBS)
 Self-Reporting Offending Surveys
Limitations:
– Reliability issues with memory recall or false information
– What populations are available to survey
– Lack of generalizability
The FBI Crime Clock

Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation. Shows the frequency of the commission of major crimes in 2019
 100
200
300
500
600
700
800

400

0
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
Violent Crime Rate

1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
Crime Rate has Declined Since the 1990s

2020
Crime Rate has Declined Since the 1990s
 IMPACT OF CRIME

• Fear of crime
- Fear limits freedom

• Costs of crime
- Economic costs

- Psychological and emotional costs

- Costs of operating the criminal justice system

 Case Study:
Chicago Crime Rates
Chicago’s Crime Rates
Chicago’s Crime Rates
 Chicago’s “Leadership”

Mayor Rahm Emanuel Police Superindent

May 2011 – May 2019 Garry McCarthy
May 2011 – December 2015
Chicago’s Three-Year Plunge
 How did Mayor Emanuel and Police
Superintendent McCarthy lower the
violent crime rate in Chicago between
2011 and 2013?
 Some Examples

Michelle Manalansan, 29 Tiara Groves, 20 Millicent Brown-Johnson

And her son
Jovan Perkins, 8
Chicago’s Crime Rates