LESSON 11

GLOBAL POPULATION AND MOBILITY: THE GLOBAL CITY

ACTIVITY 1: DIAGNOSTICS

Instructions: Discussion. Share your thoughts in the box provided below.

What do you think will happen in a country if majority of the population is composed of
elderly or senior citizens? 5 POINTS

Global Demography

A Period a high birth and death rates to eras lower birth and death rates, as society
transitioned form agrarian or pre-industrial to industrialization

“Before the start of the demographic transition, life was short, births were many
growths were slow and the population was young. During Transition, first mortality and then
fertility declined, causing population growth rates to accelerate and then slow again, moving
toward low fertility , long life and an old Population”- Ronald Lee

Even if high fertility – the main underlying cause of rapid population growth – were to
suddenly adjust to the long-run replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, humanity
would continue to experience demographic change for some time. The rapid increase in the
global population over the past few decades has resulted in large numbers of people of
childbearing age. This creates ‘population momentum’, in which the populations of most
countries, even those with falling birth rates, will grow for many years to come. This is
particularly true of developing countries.

Population changes have potentially huge implications for the pace and progress of
economic development. For example, an increasing proportion of elderly may act as a drag
on economic growth where smaller working populations must provide for a larger number of
non-working dependents. Rising life expectancy can also bolster an economy by creating a
greater incentive to save and to invest in education, thereby boosting the financial capital on
which investors draw and the human capital that strengthens economies. Where a country
has experienced a baby boom followed by a decline in fertility, the relative size of the
workforce is increased. Countries that are able to absorb the baby boom generation into
productive employment can experience a rapid increase in economic growth. Countries
unable to take advantage of this opportunity run the risk of creating large, chronically
underemployed and increasingly restive working-age populations.

2. Global Demographic Trends and Patterns

The global population, which stood at just over 2 billion in 1950, is 6.5 billion today.
The world is currently gaining new inhabitants at a rate of 76 million people a year
(representing the difference, in 2005, between 134 million births and 58 million deaths).
Although this growth is slowing, middle-ground projections suggest the world will have 9.1
billion inhabitants by 2050, when growth will be approximately 34 million a year.

These past and projected additions to world population have been, and will
increasingly be, distributed unevenly across the world. Today, 95 per cent of population
growth occurs in developing countries (see Figure 1). The population of the world's 50 least-
developed countries is expected to more than double by the middle of this century, with
several poor countries tripling their population over the period. By contrast, the population of
the developed world is expected to remain steady at around 1.2 billion, with population
declines in some wealthy countries.

The disparity in population growth between developed and developing countries

reflects the existence of considerable heterogeneity in birth, death and migration processes,
both over time and across national populations, races and ethnic groups. The disparity has
coincided with changes in the age-group composition of populations. An overview of these
factors illuminates the mechanisms of global population growth and change.

How Industrialization Affected the Health of the Citizen

4D’s Disruption, deprivation, Disease and Death During industrialization

4 stages of Classical Demographic Transition (International Union for the Scientific Study of
the Population)

1. Pre-transition
High birth rates and high fluctuating death rates. Population growth checked by Malthusian
preventive (late marriage) and positive check (famine, disaster, war, pestilence.

2. Early transition
Death rate begins to fall as birth rates remain high, thus rapid population growth.

3. Late transition
Birth rates start to decline and population growth decelerates.

4. Post- transition
Low birth and death rates and population growth is negligible or even declined.
 Five Stages of Demographic Transition according to Drew Grover

(LEDCs on Stages 2-3, MEDCs on Stage 4-5)

1 2 3 4 5

High Birth and Lower death Low birth rate Population Fertility Rates
Death Rates Rates because due to Stability fall resulting
of modern improved because of low to aging
medicine economic death and birth population
condition rates

Factors that would affect demographic transition

1. Man-made Disasters
2. Emergence of new deadly diseases (HIV, EBOLA, H1N1, SARS, COVID 19)
3. Rising cost of health care system
4. Demographic aging

ACTIVITY 3: EXERCISE 1

Instruction: Give what is asked.

1. What do you think are the advantages and disadvantages of having a huge number of
population in a country? 10 POINTS
ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES