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The Path To Net Zero Investing in Carbon Markets - Final
The Path To Net Zero Investing in Carbon Markets - Final
Investing in carbon
markets
As the drive to curb global warming gathers pace, carbon markets
have become increasingly fundamental to achieving net-zero
greenhouse-gas emissions.
© IGphotography/Getty Images
January 2022
In this episode of the Future of Asia Podcast, senior Thongchie Shang: On the personal side, I’ve
partners and leaders Oliver Tonby and Badrinath learned that my daughters are delightful when
Ramanathan join Adeline Aw, vice president they are playing well with each other. I have a
of Environmental Sustainability at Singapore’s seven-year-old and a five-year-old. And during
Economic Development Board (EDB), and COVID-19 and the work-from-home and home-
Thongchie Shang, managing director of Enterprise based learning, I’ve had much more exposure to
Strategy at GIC, to discuss some of the insights in that, but they are terrible when they’re fighting with
the recent joint report by GIC, EDB, and McKinsey, each other and I’m on a Zoom call with my boss and
Putting carbon markets to work on the path to net the management committee.
zero.1 An edited version of their conversation follows.
For more conversations on the Future of Asia, On the professional side, I think I’ve really learned
subscribe to our podcast. about the importance of overcommunicating to my
team, to my stakeholders, with the people I work
Oliver Tonby: Hello, I am Oliver Tonby. Welcome to with. Because they can’t really pick up on some of
the Future of Asia Podcast series. The Asian century the subtle cues that we are all used to in meetings.
has begun. Asia is the world’s largest regional And you can’t really stand up and whiteboard
economy. It’s at the center of the technology a solution anymore. So it’s really about being a
revolution. It’s at the center of consumption growth lot more prepared and a lot more deliberate in
and consumers of the future. It’s at the center of communicating the points.
climate risk and what we need to do to mitigate it. As
our economies evolve further, Asia has the potential Oliver Tonby: Excellent. Thank you,
to fuel and shape the next normal. In each episode, Thongchie. Adeline?
we are going to feature conversations with leaders
from across the region to discuss what Asia’s rise Adeline Aw: Thanks, Oliver. Through the last
means for businesses everywhere. couple of years, I really learned how adaptive, how
innovative, and how resilient we can all be in the
Today’s topic is investing in carbon markets, and middle of a real-life crisis. And that really came
I am joined by three distinguished panelists: through both professionally and personally for me.
Adeline Aw is the vice president of environmental Professionally, we had to do many things at the EDB
sustainability at the EDB, Thongchie Shang is the that we were not used to doing, including helping
managing director of enterprise strategy at GIC, the industry tide over a period of crisis, dealing with
and Badri Ramanathan is a senior partner the situation, both in their companies themselves
at McKinsey. and with their employees at the EDB.
All three of our panelists today are authors of On the personal side, I think it’s about finding
a newly released report called Putting carbon new ways of interacting with family and friends in
markets to work on the path to net zero. Let’s just the “new normal,” as everyone likes to call it. It’s
understand a little bit about who you are before something that took some getting used to. But I
we get into the content. Let me ask each of you: think we’re now in that new groove, and people are
we’ve now been through one and a half, maybe two kind of getting used to it. So that’s really something
years, of COVID-19. What are some of the learnings, that I learned through this entire experience.
personal or professional, that you’ve had during
that period? Oliver Tonby: Indeed, indeed. Very hectic times.
Badri, last but not least, what are your reflections on
the last year or two?
1
“Putting carbon markets to work on the path to net zero,” McKinsey, October 28, 2021.
Oliver Tonby: How is that price set? Thongchie, let’s to the foregone output and value to that company.
stay with you for a second here. How does the price Or they have to invest in carbon-abatement
setting happen? technologies, like carbon capture and storage
or some other low-carbon industrial processes.
Thongchie Shang: It happens slightly differently in And that price therefore gets set according to the
the compliance markets and in the voluntary market. marginal cost of reducing carbon.
Take the compliance markets, which I think is the
most straightforward example. Here, the regulator So, economically, it’s pretty efficient. It’s almost a
gets involved. The first step is that the government textbook case of how you would price an externality
or the regulator sets a cap on the total amount of to get companies to internalize the cost of carbon in
carbon emissions that companies can emit. And this their corporate decision making.
has been happening in real life—in the European
Union for about 20 years now. So companies that Oliver Tonby: Perfect. Thank you, Thongchie. I’m
emit more carbon than the regulatory cap have now going to you, Badri. We’ve now heard the
to buy additional carbon allowances—otherwise terms compliance carbon markets and voluntary
they’re in violation of the law and they get penalized. carbon markets a few times. What’s the difference
And companies that emit less than the cap can sell between the two? And is there any difference
[the allowances]. in the growth and the popularity of these two
different mechanisms?
So now you have these two sets of companies, those
that emit more and those that emit less, having to Badrinath Ramanathan: Sure, Oliver. So, as
trade with each other through intermediaries to be Thongchie said, compliance covered markets
able to balance out their carbon emissions so that [CCMs] are driven almost entirely by regulatory
they meet the regulatory cap. And companies that actions. This has been happening for over 20 years.
want to buy the allowances have to pay an explicit Now, they’re not yet huge, but they are sizable
price to the companies that sell them. already. So we are talking about a market value
of about $100 billion worldwide, with the sort of
And what is that price that the companies will have trading turnover of about $250 billion. So these
to pay? Well, that depends on the opportunity-cost markets are becoming sizable, and they are driven
rate, the next best alternative, which is to reduce entirely by regulatory actions. This is not one market;
output; and therefore, the carbon price is equivalent there are more than 20 such markets around the
Thongchie Shang: Indeed, Oliver. We look at Actually, carbon markets help us diversify even more
carbon markets as a pretty exciting development risks that have been unpriced before. So in a way, it
because it’s one of the key mechanisms that help helps us expand our option set from an investment
investors “do good” as well as “do well” at the same point of view. And from an impact point of view, it
time. If you cast your mind back to ten or 15 years has a very positive outcome. I think we spoke about
ago, when sustainable investing and ESG investing how it helps to facilitate the flow of capital into
really started entering into investors’ consideration nature-based solutions or reforestation projects
set, I think the initial reaction a decade ago was that would otherwise not be economical. So it’s
that, intuitively, there must be a trade-off between really a mechanism to help us pursue both those
returns and impact, right? Because Finance 101 objectives at the same time.
says that the efficient frontier for investors—if it’s
as unconstrained as possible, if your investment But, of course, I just want to highlight that investors
universe is as wide as possible—then truly you can really should not think about trading speculatively in
gain from diversification, which is the only free carbon markets. When we look at the development
lunch, right? of carbon markets, what strikes us are the parallels
it has with the evolution of other commodity markets,
That’s what Finance 101 that everyone studies whether it’s soybeans or pork bellies or natural gas.
in college tells you. But with carbon markets, it’s And in commodities markets like that, investors and
really a game changer in the sense that, as we financial institutions really have an important role in
said earlier, it prices an externality. It changes the providing liquidity, aiding price discovery, matching
economic calculus of firms to behave a certain way. supply and demand over time, being market makers.
And if you look at how carbon markets are evolving, And these are typical functions that we see. Similar
they are essentially driven by government policy to commodity markets, we think carbon markets will
in the case of compliance markets or by corporate evolve in pretty much the same way. So it’s about
commitments to fight climate change in the case of providing these value-added services rather than
voluntary markets. And as Badri pointed out, these trading speculatively.
things tend to have low correlation or even negative
correlation with a standard portfolio: 60 percent Oliver Tonby: And I guess for an investor like
stocks and 40 percent bonds. yourselves, you also would like the markets to
2
The COP26 Climate Change Conference was held in Glasgow, Scotland, between October 31 and November 13, 2021.
Adeline Aw is the vice president of environmental sustainability at Singapore’s Economic Development Board. Thongchie
Shang is the managing director of enterprise strategy at GIC. Badrinath Ramanathan and Oliver Tonby are senior partners in
McKinsey’s Singapore office.
Comments and opinions expressed by interviewees are their own and do not represent or reflect the opinions, policies, or
positions of McKinsey & Company or have its endorsement.