-— Unit 29 Disaster Prediction [1] In a natural disaster a hurricane, flood, tomado, volcanic eruption, or other calamity — minutes and even seconds of warning can be the difference between life and death, Because of this, scientists and government officials are working to use the latest technological advances to predict when and where disasters will happen. They are also studying how (5) _ bestto analyze and communicate this information once it is obtained. The goal is to put technology to effective use in saving lives and property when nature unleashes its power with devastating results. [2] On September 29, 1998, Hurricane Georges made landfall in Biloxi, Mississippi, after devastating Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and several islands of the Caribbean (10) with torrential rains and winds up to 160 km/h (100 mph). Few people lost their lives along the Gulf Coast of the United States, although hundreds died in the Caribbean. [3] This was a very different outcome from 1900, when a powerful Gulf Coast hurricane made an unexpected direct hit on Galveston, Texas, killing at least 6000 people. Vastly improved hurricane warnings explain the different circumstances at either end of the 20th (15) century —residents of Galveston had no advance warning that a storm was approaching, while residents of Biloxi had been waned days in advance of Georges’s approach, allowing for extensive safety precautions. [4] At the same time that people in Biloxi were thankful for the advance warning, some residents of New Orleans, Louisiana, 120 km (75m) to the west, were less satisfied. A day (20) before Georges made landfall, forecasters were predicting that the hurricane had a good chance of striking New Orleans. Because much of New Orleans lies below sea level, the city is at risk for flooding. [5] In addition, because New Orleans has a large population in vulnerable location, emergency management officials must begin evacuations well before a storm strikes. But (25) evacuation costs money: Businesses close, tourists leave, and citizens take precautionary measures, The mayor of New Orleans estimated that his city’s preparations for Georges ost more than 50 million. After the full fury of Georges missed New Orleans, some residents Questioned the value of the hurricane forecasts in the face of such high costs. (6] The different views on the early warnings for Hurricane Georges illustrate some of the G0) complexities involved in predicting disasters. Disaster prediction is more than just hn 137 " Reading Comprehension —A Comprehensive Reading Practice For Junior Students -Book 3. @ Healthy Book Store 20 ‘A Compre ig 15forecasting the future with advanced technology — it is also a process of providing scientific information to the government officials and other decision-makers who must respond to those predictions. [71 In general, the process has three phases. First, there is the challenge of forecasting the (35) _ event itself. In the case of Georges, scientists worked to predict the future direction and strength of the hurricane days in advance. [8] A second important challenge is communicating the forecast to decision-makers. Because forecasts are always uncertain, a central factor in disaster predictions is communicating this uncertainty which is usually described in terms of odds or probabilities, much like (40) daily weather forecasts. The media plays an important role in communicating predictions and their uncertainty to the public. [9] The third part of the process is the use of predictive information by decision-makers. Even the most accurate information is of little value if the decision-maker does not use it appropriately, for example in deciding whether to order an evacuation. If there is a (45) _ breakdown in any of these three phases of prediction, the result is increased danger anda higher risk of loss of life. 138 Disiotive Reading Comprebension ~ A Comprehesie Reading Practice For Junior Students k3 © Healthy Book S'°% ~ Book TOa. Find a word in paragraph 1 that is similar in meaning to ‘disaster’ 2, According to paragraph 1, what are the Four things that should be included in disaster \ prediction ? a. b. 3, The word ‘unleashes’ (line 6) could be replaced by A. 4, According to the passage, the purpose of disaster prediction is to A. B. c. D. B. Cc. D. creates releases builds demonstrates oO show the power of advanced technology bring out the truth between life and death prevent such natural disasters from happening reduce human casualties and loss of property 5. Find a word in paragraph 2 that means ‘destroying’. 6. What does‘a very different outcome’ (line 12) refer to ? 7. According to paragraph 3, what is the reason for this very different outcome ? A. B. c. D. the efforts of scientists the co-operation of people with the government the improved hurricane warnings the sudden change in weather gO 139 Dctive Reading Comprehension ~ A Comprehensive Reading Practice For Junior Students Book 3 @ Healthy Book Store 2015Fill in the following blanks with words from paragraph 3. (Change the form of words if § necessary) With or without hurricane waming in can make a big ni the results of a hurricane Which of the following areas suffered the most severe hurricane damage ? Biloxi, Mississippi Gulf Coast of U.S. Galveston, Texas New Orleans pomP> 10. The city residents of New Orleans were unsatisfied because they underwent a heavy hurricane attack the preparations were too costly the hurricane warning arrived rather late its precautionary measures were wasted because the forecast hurricane didn't hit the city Oo g9O9P 41. What does ‘vulnerable location’ (line 23) refer to ? 42. The word ‘fury’ (line 27) could be replaced by A. force B. attack c. strike D. anger oO 43. Which of the following phases does not belong to the disaster prediction process ? A, _ Accurate predictions of forth coming disasters. B. Communication of forecasts and uncertainty C. _ Evacuation from the disaster-stricken areas. D. _ Decision maker's timely response to warnings. Oo / 140 / stores! reading Comprehension ~ A Comprehensive Reading Practice For unio Students - Book 3 © Healthy Book Distinctive14, Read the following statements and decide whether they are True (T), False (F), or the information is Not Given (NG). Puta tick (V/ ) in the appropriate box. Statements True False NG ‘A. The mayor of New Orleans was forced to resign due to the high costs. B. The city of New Orleans lost 50 million dollars when all businesses closed. C. Predicting disastersis a very complicated matter. 15. What will happen when the disaster prediction process is broken ? 141 Nctiye rn i © Healthy B St Reading Comprehension ~A Comprehensive Reading Practice For Junior Students“ Book 3 © Healthy Book Store 2015