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07 Chapter 2
07 Chapter 2
07 Chapter 2
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
Exchange Traded Funds have a brief history. ETFs have not faced
extended researching interest. The literature presents very few records
of studies related to this issue, particularly in empirical level. The most
significant papers are introduced in this chapter. The literature can be
subdivided into the following categories,
Some papers compare ETFs and index funds, demonstrating that the
main differences among them are related to management expenses,
transaction fees and tax efficiency. They also suggest that the tracking
error‘s comparison between ETFs and index funds is difficult because
of the lack of a true benchmark for comparison.
Few authors try to compare the performance of ETFs with that of broad
market index, to prove that a portfolio of passive ETFs can provide
above market returns with the least risk assumed. They also study the
performance persistence of ETFs over the market index.
Ackert and Tian (2000)2 show that discounts on the price of SPDRs had
no economic significance between 1993 and 1997. They find that, in
contrast to closed-end mutual funds, the difference between SPDRs and
their net asset value is economically insignificant. The difference is
somewhat larger for MidCap SPDRs, but still substantially less than the
typical closed-end fund. They conclude that the mechanisms to create
and destroy shares act to limit deviations from net asset value. Based
on institutional ownership data, they conclude that individuals rather
than institutions invest in SPDRs. They also find that the returns of
SPDRs are not excessively volatile relative to the underlying index.
Frino and Gallagher (2001 6 empirically study index fund tracking error.
They explain that the primary factor that causes index fund tracking
error is the cost of transactions which includes liquidity concerns, fund
cash flows, dividends, volatility of the benchmark, corporate activity,
and index composition changes. They find that the tracking error
associated with the S&P 500 index funds follows a quarterly (seasonal)
pattern. The tracking error is lowest at the end of each calendar quarter.
They surmise that this seasonal effect may be the result of the timing of
dividend payments by the funds. Other reasons for tracking error, they
conclude, may have to do with the changes in the index itself.
Jonne M. Hill and Barbara Muelle r (2001)7 made a research on ETFs and they
concluded that Tracking errors and returns based on fund NAV relative to the index
reflect characteristics of the product structure. In addition, price-to- index returns and
tracking error reflect ETF prices that are captured at a different time from the
underlying index and the short-supply and demand factors relevant to the ETF, as
well as the hedging instruments used by the market makers. NAV tracking error is
much lower than price-to-index tracking error and is the most useful measure in
assessing the long-term characteristics of an ETF relative to its underlying index.
Poterba and Shoven (2002)9 compare the pre-tax and after-tax returns of
SPDRs and Vanguard index fund; both track S&P 500 Index, finding that
they substantially present the same records of performance. They
combine these findings with the tax efficiency of ETFs and they
conclude that ETFs offer investors a less taxable method to invest in a
broad market index and to achieve returns analogous to their index
funds counterparts.
Engle and Sarkar (2002)10examine the magnitude and persistence of
discounts both daily and intradaily.On average, they find that ETFs are
efficiently priced since only small deviations were seen,lasting for only
a few minutes. Both domestic and international ETFs are examined,
each from an end-of-day perspective and from a minute-by-minute intra-
daily framework. The overall finding is that the premiums/discounts for
the domestic ETFs are generally small and highly transient, once
mismatches in timing are accounted for. Large premiums typically last
only several minutes. The standard deviation of the premiums/discount
is 15 basis points on average across all ETFs, which is substantially
smaller than the bid-ask spread. For international ETFs, the findings are
not so dramatic. Premiums and discounts are much larger and more
persistent, frequently lasting several days. The spreads are also much
wider and are comparable to the standard deviation of the premiums.
Philippe Jorion (2003)12 in his article explored the risk and return
relationship of active portfolios subject to a constraint on tracking-error
volatility (TEV), which can also be interpreted in terms of value at risk.
Such a constrained portfolio is the typical setup for active managers
who are given the task of beating a benchmark. The problem with this
setup is that the portfolio manager pays no attention to total portfolio
risk, which results in seriously inefficient portfolios unless some
additional constraints are imposed. The study reflected that TEV-
constrained portfolios are described by an ellipse on the traditional
mean–variance plane. This finding yields a number of new insights.
Because of the flat shape of this ellipse, adding a constraint on total
portfolio volatility can substantially improve the performance of the
active portfolio. In general, plan sponsors should concentrate on
controlling total portfolio risk.
Jares and Lavin (2004)18 study this issue for Japan and Honk-Kong
WEBs that trade on the AMEX. Non-tradability of the underlying stocks
is an especially meaningful concern in this case since Asian markets
are closed for the day before U.S. markets open. For these ETFs, an
Indicated Optimized Portfolio Value serves as the Indicative NAV and is
disclosed throughout the day. It is based on stale stock prices and
accounts solely for changes in exchange rates. Jares and Lavin find
frequent discounts and premiums for the period ranging from 1996 to
2001. Moreover, there is predictability in returns giving rise to highly
profitable trading rules.
Simon and Sternberg (2004)19 This paper examines the forecasting
power of German, UK and French iShares for the next day returns of the
underlying Morgan Stanley country equity indexes and assesses
whether European iShares overreact to developments after the close of
European trading. The findings indicate that although deviations of
European iShare prices from net asset values (NAVs) at the close of US
trading have significant forecast power for next day NAV returns, they
overpredict. Deviations of closing iShare prices from their NAVs also
lead to next day iShare price reversals that average roughly 3/8 of the
size of the deviations. Finally, the paper demonstrates the profitability of
trading rules that exploit the tendency of European iShares to overreact
to late day US trading activity. also find significant premiums and
discounts at the end of the day and overreaction for European ETFs
traded on the AMEX. Hence, if the trading system appears to enhance
pricing efficiency for traded funds, some inefficiency seems to remain
for ETFs replicating illiquid or foreign benchmarks.
Andy Lin and Anthony Chou(2006)20 this research investigates: (1) the
characteristics and formation of tracking errors of the TTT, (2) the
underlying factors which influence the premium/discount of the TTT,
and (3) the pricing factors of the TTT‘s return and trading volume.
Interesting conclusions are reached. First, the tracking error of the TTT
iscmainly constituted by its cash dividends, whose impact became so
obvious in the peak dividend payout season. Second, the management
expenses are identified as the main factor causing the gap between two
different tracking error series. Third, the effect on TTT tracking errors of
stock replacement operations is documented. It is evident that there are
three apparent shocks, signaling potential arbitrage opportunities.
Nevertheless, this arbitrage potential is deemed limited and the duration
is short. Finally, the multivariate model shows that the TTT
discount/premium could be attributed to its own volatility and market
return. And the return of the TTT is highly correlated with the general
stock market movements and its arbitrary opportunity. However, the
trading volume of the TTT is merely affected by its own price volatility.
Manuel Ammann, Stephan Kessler and Jurg Toble r(2006) 22 stated that for
investors, it is important to know what trading strategies an asset manager pursues to
generate excess returns. In this paper, they proposed an alternative approach for
analyzing trading strategies used in active investing. They used tracking error
variance (TEV) as a measure of activity and introduced two decompositions of TEV
for identifying different investment strategies. To demonstrate how a tracking error
variance decomposition can add information, a simulation study testing the
performance of different methods for strategy analysis is conducted. In particular,
when investment strategies contain random components, TEV decomposition is found
to deliver important additional information that traditional return decomposition
methods are unable to uncover.
Tzu-Wei KUO and Cesario MATEUS (2007)24 The aim of this paper was to
investigate the performance and persistence of 20 iShares MSCI
country-specific exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in comparison with S&P
500 index over the period July 2001 to June 2006.In this analysis the
Sharpe, Treynor and Sortino ratios were used as risk-adjusted
performance measures. To evaluate performance persistence i.e., if
there is any relationship among past performance and future
performance, they applied the Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient
and the Winner-loser Contingency Table.The conclusions can be
summarized as follows. First, ETFs can beat the U.S.market index based
on risk-adjusted performance measures. Second, past performance of
iShares MSCI country-specific ETFs can predict future performance,
based on annual return.
Stijn Zweegers (2010)32 The extended Sharpe ratios of the ETFs are directly tested
to the extended Sharpe ratios of the mutual funds. Both investment strategies did not
outperform the benchmark according to the extended Sharpe ratio, since the average
ratios both are negative. The actively managed mutual funds did however outperform
the passively managed ETFs according to a T-test with a significance level of five
percent. Meaning that according to the extended Sharpe ratio, investing in mutual
funds would have been better over the evaluation period than investing in ETFs.
Given that the mutual funds give a better return relative to their risk. Mutual funds did
not significantly outperform the benchmark according to the Jensen‘s alpha since they
have a negative average alpha tested at a significance level of five percent or less. The
overall managers‘ goal is not accomplished. However, the mutual fund managers did
significantly outperform the alternative investing strategy, ETFs. The T-test shows a
significant outperforming with a significance level of five percent.The overall
conclusion of this papers research is that the active mutual funds managers
outperformed the passive ETFs managers.
Prashanta Athma and Raj Kumar(2011)34 The study covers the trends
and progress of ETFs and Index Funds in India and to evaluate the
performance of ETFs vis-à-vis Index Funds in India. The study is based
on secondary data and covering the period of five years from 2005 to
2009 for the purpose of evaluating performance of select ETFs and
Index Funds in India. Since inception, the data has been collected for
the purpose of analyzing trends and progress of ETFs and Index funds
in India. The parameters for evaluating the performance are Net Asset
Value, Risk, Return, Expenses Ratio, Tracking Error, Reward to
Variability and Differential Return. The statistical tools like Standard
Deviation, Beta, Alpha, R-squared and Sharpe Ratio are used for data
analysis. It is concluded that ETFs have given better opportunity for the
small investors in terms of diversified portfolio with a small amount of
money; low expense ratio, reduced tracking error, lower risk and
volatility as compared to Index Funds. The ETFs can become a best
investment alternative, provided, awareness is created among the
investors.
Pedro Kono , Pan Yatrakis ., Sabrina Segal (2011)35 This study tests the
market efficiency of the Japanese equity market. The analyses compare the
performance of a portfolio consisting of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with that of
the overall market, exemplified by the Topix Index, during the period of June 30,
2008 to June 30, 2009. The ETF portfolio is constructed a ccording to the Modern
Portfolio Theory (MPT) developed by Harry Markowitz in 1952. The study concludes
that an optimal ETF portfolio can outperform an overall market index when
performance is measured using the Sharpe ratio, i.e., the return per unit of r isk.
Alok Goyal and Amit Joshi (2011)37. This paper studies the financial
performance, variations and also analyses the risk behaviour of the
selected Gold ETFs in comparison of NSE. The data for this has been
taken from the NSE website. The period taken for the study is March
2008 to November 2010. Analysis is made by using financial tools like
Sharpe‘s index, Treynor‘s ratio by calculating alpha, beta and standard
deviation of the selected funds.
DR. PREETI SINGH (2011)39 In this paper ETFs are compared with Mutual Funds.
It had been found from all the above discussion that ETFs are more reliable than
mutual funds. If the present situation of the world is analyzed most of the trading is
taking place on barter system. Individuals having one particular good wait for the
proper time by analyzing the market trend and then sale it in exc hange of the money
or other goods. Majority of the world‘s population do not hold precious assets what
they can invest into the business. Rather majority belongs to subclass or poor
community which has to earn money rapidly to meet their basic needs. Keeping all
these aspects in mind Exchange is the better option rather than availing the mutual
funds which are more expensive and more time consuming. While considering the
managers of mutual funds investments, there are more chances that managers may
exploit the interests of investors by not letting them know properly about their current
status. Also in case of mutual funds there always are conflicts of interests, the reason
behind could be it is very hard to manage a big investment than managing the small
investments as is in the case of exchange trade funds. There are few things necessary
to observe before on enter into the exchange trade. Exchange trade is the derivative of
index fund that totally operate on the basis of previous market values and trends.
Before investing it should be clear in one‘s mind that he knows all the steeps and
slops of market values or if some trading agent got to be involved he should have
tremendous grip on the market flow and twists.By considering all the above
mentioned facts it is found that exchange trade is the most appropriate trade as it
bears less expenses have more risks but less loses. Also it is friendly to the traders
having less capital in hand. Exchange trade follows the market trends the money of
investors can be liquefied according to desires whenever there is need to buy or sell
the stock. Hence the easiest and convenient way of making money through trade is
the exchange trade fund and is gaining the popularity due to its flexible mode of
operation.
Reena Aggarwal (2012)40 Exchange traded funds (ETFs) are one of the most
innovative financial products introduced on exchanges. As reflected by the size of the
market they have become popular among both retail and institutional investors. The
original ETFs were simple and easy to understand, however some recent products
such as leveraged, inverse, and synthetic ETFs, are complex and have additional
dimensions of risk. The additional risks, complexity, and reduced transparency have
resulted in heightened attention by regulators. Concerns related to systemic risk and
excess volatility, suitability for retail investors, lack of transparency and liquidity,
securities lending and counterparty exposure, among others have been raised. These
concerns are being addressed by a shift towards multiple counterparties,
overcollateralization, and disclosure of collateral holdings and index holdings. The
appropriate regulatory and market reforms can ensure the continued success of ETFs.
41
John P. Plamondon & DePaul(2012) This paper compares returns of ETFs
holding physical commodities and ETFs holding derivative products to their
respective spot commodity returns to identify significant performance differences
based on the ETF assets. They regress ETF returns on spot commodity returns to
estimate beta and R2 values. They use these Beta and R2 values to evaluate the
relationship between the ETFs and their spot prices. They found that the physical
ETFs perform more consistently with their spot commodities; these products are more
likely to provide the expected risk exposure investors desire. Also this paper performs
two mean comparison tests: the first compares the returns of the ETFs with their spot
commodities; while the second compares the Sharpe Ratios of the ETFs with the
Sharpe Ratios generated by their spot commodities. Their analyse of the Sharpe
Ratios finds that futures based ETFs have considerable performance divergence from
the physical commodity depending on if the futures market is in backwardation or
contango. Finally this paper evaluates the performance of the stack and strip methods
used by WTI Crude Oil based ETFs. They found that the use of a strip method
improved the performance of the WTI Crude Oil ETF when the contango in the
futures market became more severe, and eroded performance as the market became
flat or backwardated.
Swati Garg & Dr. Y. P. Singh(2013)46 This paper empirically compares the
performance of two competitive financial instruments available to Indian
investors, namely Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and Index Funds. A set of
five ETFs and Index Funds that in pairs track the same benchmark indices
has been analyzed in this study over a period ranging from June 2006 to
December 2009. The analysis demonstrates better performance of ETFs in
terms of their re plication strategy, tracking ability as well as performance
effectiveness over long-term investment horizon. However, there is an
evidence of potential disadvantage of ETFs from very short-term investor‗s
point of vie w.
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