Version of Record: https://www.sciencedirect.com/seience/article/pii/$0951832020306049 ‘Maanuscript_4fe3 Idab799d8d760297093ebd551841 10 n 2 13 14 15 16 v7 18 19 20 2 2 23 24 A Novel Method for Maintenance Record Clustering and Its Application to a Case Study of Maintenance Optimization ‘Zhe Yang", Piero Baraldi”, Enrico Zio™5 ' School of Mechanical Engineering, Dongguan University of Technology, Dongguan, 523808, China * Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milan, Italy 3 MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, CRC, Sophia Antipolis, France + Aramis Srl, Via pergolesi 5, Milano, Italy * Department of Nuclear Engineering, College of Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Republic of Korea Abstract. Maintenance records contain information about equipment degradation, which is typically not used as “data” for maintenance modelling and optimization given the difficulty of analyzing text to extract relevant and usable information, In this work, we present a method for using such textual information by: 1) the identification of equipment degradation states through clustering the maintenance records using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and 2) the development of a stochastic multi-state degradation model based on the information therein, The method is applied to a database of maintenance records collected from excavator buckets used for mining. The results show that the proposed CNN-based clustering method identifies homogencous clusters of maintenance records representing different equipment degradation states and that the proposed stochastic multi: state degradation model based on this information can be used for improving maintenance. Keywords. Maintenance record, Text clustering, Convolutional neural network, Stochastic multi- state model, Maintenance optimization, Mining, Excavator bucket. Notations and list of acronyms CM Corrective Maintenance v Maitix consisting of right singular vectors PM Preventive Maintenance z Diagonal matrix ofthe singular values CBM — Condition-Based Maintenance o Singular value PrM Predictive Maintenance x Input of the convolutional layer BoW —_ Bag-of-Words Wn Weights ofthe m-th filter of the convolutional layer LSA Latent Semantic Analysis Fm Output feature map of the m-th filter of convolutional layer DL Deep Leaning Dn Bias of the m-th filter ofthe convolutional layer RecNN Recursive Neural Network f Activation function RNN Recurrent Neural Network Ny ‘Number of filters of the convolutional layer CNN Convolutional Neural Network a Dimension of the filterNLP Natural Language Processing dy Dimension of max pooling MLE — Maximum Likelihood Estimation M Degradation model ReLU Rectified Linear Unit Aehit Transition time from the j-th degradation state tothe (j+ 1)-th R Overall database of maintenance At Transition time from the j-th degradation state records to the complete failure state R§ pth maintenance record of the qth Aj 4s Transition rate from the j-th degradation state machine tothe (+ 1h Time of the maintenance record dig ‘Transition rate from the j-th degradation state to the complete failure state xf Short text of the maintenance record Ag, Apr,@ Model parameters to be estimated and B Ng Number ofmaintenance records. J Planned number of failures in the planned collected from machine q maintenance approach N Total number of collected uy) Planned maintenance approach in which the maintenance records replacement is performed at the J-th failure G ‘-th clustered group of maintenance B, Cost of repair records, 1 Number of clustered groups of B, Cost of planned replacement maintenance records s Degradation state in the multi-state B Total maintenance cost stochastic model X4— Word embedding representation ofa Ny, Expected number of repairs short text dz Dimension of word embedding Ny Expected number of planned replacements, dy Number of words of the longest Nanp Expected number of unplanned replacements document yf LSA representation of a short text. T- Long petiod of time or time duration of a trial of Monte Carlo simulation dysq Dimension of the output of LSA. Likelihood function hi Deep semantic representation ofa NME Number of trials of Monte Carlo simulation short text d, Dimension of the deep semantic Sojourn time in a state during one trial Monte representation Carlo simulation X_ __Bag-of-Words representation of all__N(S;) Number of arrivals in the degradation state S; the short text in one trial of Monte Carlo simulation dy Number of words that appear at least ¥(5;) Average number of arrivals in the degradation once in all documents state $) in multiple tials of Monte Carlo simulation u Matrix consisting of least singular vectors 1. Introduction Despite the industry 4.0 revolution [1], traditional Corrective and Preventive Maintenance (CM and PM) approaches are still the most adopted in many industrial areas, like oil and gas [2], urban facilities [3], transportation [4] and metal mining [5]. According to [6], CM and PM are employed by 78.3% and 82.6% of engineering plants, respectively. This is partly due to the capital expenditures needed to purchase the necessary instrumentation and advanced algorithms necessary for Condition- Based Maintenance (CBM) and Predictive Maintenance (PrM) (7, 8]. In many cases, the information10 un 2 3 4 15 16 v7 18 19 20 2 2 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 available on equipment degradation and failure processes is limited to a database of maintenance records, which typically contains the time instants at which the maintenance interventions were performed and the description of the interventions written in the form of a short text (log) by the maintenance technicians. Typically, due to the difficulty of automatically analyzing texts, only the information about the time of the maintenance interventions is used for maintenance optimization. Few studies have considered maintenance records. In [9], an existing domain ontology, ie. a description of the concepts of the engineering system, is used to extract information from maintenance records. In [10], a subset of manually labeled maintenance records is used to train an empirical classifier, which identifies whether maintenance interventions performed on pump stations were scheduled or unscheduled. In [11], numerical flight data manually labeled according to maintenance records are used to develop a Support Vector Machine classifier, which predicts the aircraft future performance. In [12], features extracted from failure and operational records are used to develop a multiple-instance learning model for predicting equipment failure times. In [13], a bilevel feature extraction method that integrates features extracted at syntax and semantic levels from repair maintenance records is proposed for fault diagnostics of railway systems. In [14], a text mining approach is proposed to identify failure time data from work orders and downtime records. In [15], key word spotting methods are used to transform unstructured maintenance record into a formal schema, In [16], artificial neural networks and decision trees are used for classifying the duration of maintenance activity based on a key word spotting method proposed in [15], combining human annotation and computer assistance. Despite the utilization of maintenance records, these studies highly rely on expert intervention to: #) label maintenance records using pre-defined categories and ii) extract features from text based on field knowledge. Since companies typically do not have resources for these tasks, the proposed methods are rarely applied in practice. In this context, the objective of the present work is to develop a method able to: i) automatically extract information {rom maintenance records without expert intervention, if) model the equipment degradation process based on the extracted information, iii) optimize maintenance. To this aim, we have developed a novel method based on short text clustering to extract information about equipment degradation from maintenance records. Short text clustering has recently become of great interest given the necessity of analyzing the large amounts of short texts generated in the eyber 210 un 2 3 4 15 16 v7 18 19 20 2 2 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 world [17, 18}, such as posts on social media and comments on e-commercial websites. Its main difficulty is the evaluation of semantic similarity among short texts where most words typically appear only once in each short text (sparseness of the text) [19]. For this reason, traditional count- based text mining methods, such as Bag-of-Words (BoW), term frequency, term frequency-inverse document frequency methods [20, 21], and Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) [22], provide unsatisfactory clustering performance. Recently, word embedding methods [23-25] have yielded state-of-the-art results in capturing the semantic information of words based on the distributional hypothesis [26], ie. words occurring in similar contexts tend to have similar meanings. They aim at embedding words into vectors by modeling the relationship between a word and its context. For example, the skip-gram and continuous bag-of-words models of word2vec [25] exploit a single hidden layer neural network to Jearn this relationship and use the hidden layer neuron vector as representation of the word. Also, several deep learning (DL) techniques, such as Recursive Neural Networks (RecNNs) [27, 28], Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) [29, 30] and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) [31-34], have successfully performed Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks using word embedding methods. RecNNs aim at modeling sentences by constructing textual hierarchical trees, whereas RNNS process an input text sequence one word at a time and generate, once the last word of the text has been processed, a ‘state vector’ which contains information about the overall text. Although RecNN and RNN have been reported to provide satisfactory performances when applied to long texts with complete sentence structure (35], they still have difficulties in dealing with short texts. Given our need of clustering maintenance records, which are short and terse free texts, we consider the use of CNNs. They exploit the semantic meaning of a sentence by applying convolutional filters which do not require long and complete sentence structure, and allow extracting multiple levels of representation thanks to their multi-layer structure. In [31], a CNN is employed to extract semantic information from pre-trained word vectors for sentence classification and is applied for detecting opinions in movie customer reviews. In [32], a dynamic CNN-based method is developed for semantic modelling of sentences and tested on supervised problems, such as sentiment prediction of movie review and twitter posts. In [33], improvements over the state-of-the-art on several public text classification tasks are achieved using a very deep CNN. In [34], a self-taught CNN is proposed to 410 uu 2 13 14 1s 16 uw 18 19 20 2 2 23 24 25 26 2 extract features for short text clustering in a situation in which text labels are not available. To the best of our knowledge, although CNNs have been already used for predictive maintenance using in input signals [36-38] or images [39, 40], no applications to maintenance textual records have yet been reported. The proposed method is based on: ‘) clustering the maintenance records using CNN to obtain groups of similar maintenance interventions, which are assumed to refer to similar degradation states; ii) developing a stochastic multi-state degradation model, whose parameters are estimated applying the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method to the time instants at which the maintenance interventions have been performed; iii) optimizing maintenance by using a maintenance cost model and Monte Carlo simulation for its solution. The main contribution of the proposed method is that it allows identifying the degradation states of the equipment using maintenance records, without requiring expert knowledge to extract features from the maintenance records and to label them. Also, it integrates in a systematic framework short text clustering with stochastic multi-state degradation modeling to support maintenance optimization. The application of the proposed method is illustrated by way of a real industrial case study concerning the degradation of excavator buckets used in the mining industry. The remaining of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 presents the problem statement. Section 3 illustrates details of the proposed method for maintenance optimization. Section 4 shows conclusions are drawn in Section the application of the proposed method to a real case study. Finally, 5. 2, Problem Statement We consider a repairable industrial component used in a large set of n similar machines. In case of failure, the component can be repaired or replaced by the operator, depending on the severity of the damage. We assume to have available maintenance records written by the operators after each planned or corrective maintenance interventions. The generic p-th maintenance record RY performed oon the q-th machine contains the time instant ¢@ of the maintenance intervention and a short text x8 describing it, ic. R} = {t7,x$}. The overall database of the N = Y'%_, Ng maintenance records will1 10 u 2 3 14 1s 16 uv 18 19 20 2 2 23 24 25 26 be referred to as R={R%q oT » Na}, where Ng indicates the number of maintenance interventions performed on machine q. We assume that some records refer to component replacements performed after component failures. Also, a maintenance cost model, which provides the expected total maintenance cost on the basis of the expected numbers and costs of the different types of maintenance interventions, is assumed to be available. The final objective is to develop a method for maintenance optimization able to minimize the maintenance cost using the information of the database R. 3. Methodology ‘The proposed method is based on the following steps: A. Automatic clustering of the short texts {x}, , each one 1 .mp=t, into I groups (Cie: containing maintenance records which refer to similar maintenance interventions (Figure 1). The clustering is performed using an approach inspired by [34], which combines CNN-based deep feature extraction and k-means clustering; B. Development of a stochastic multi-state degradation model, M, describing the equipment degradation process. The degradation states {5}, 1 0f the model are those identified in step A under the hypothesis that similar maintenance interventions are performed on components found in similar degradation states. The maintenance times {¢2} . are used to estimate the parameters of the stochastic model. C. Identification of the maintenance policy which minimizes the maintenance cost. Steps A, B and C of the method will be further detailed below in Sections 3.1, 3.2 and 3.3, respectively. 3.1 Maintenance records clustering Text clustering typically requires a feature extraction phase, where the documents are transformed into numerical vectors, and a data clustering phase, where the obtained numerical vectors are grouped (Figure 1), With respect to the feature extraction task, two of the most used methods are LSA [22] and word2vec 610 n 2 3 14 18 16 uv 18 19 20 2 2 23 24 25 26 [25]. LSA is the most popular global matrix factorization method used in text mining [22]. It performs a dimensional reduction of the count-based BoW matrix Xp associated to the set of documents. Assuming that the dimension of Xz is dy x N, where dy indicates the number of words that appear at least once in all documents and N the total number of documents, the generic (i, ) entry of matrix Xp counts the number of occurrences of the i-th word in the j-th document, Singular ‘Value Decomposition is applied to obtain the three matrixes U, ¥ and V [41] uzv™ a) R with Z = diag(o,,...,0¢) where o, > 02... > op are the singular values of Xz, and U and V are formed by the left and right singular vectors, respectively. The disq singular vectors of U corresponding to the dysq largest singular values o, >)... ¢,,, ate used to define a transformation matrix, Ug,,,, which allows projecting the BoW representation of a generic document, ¥, into the d,.s4-dimensional vector y: Y= ZaisVaiss® @ LSA is able to map a document into a compact vector of features, but it ignores the semantic meaning of words and the word order in the text Word2vec belongs to the group of the word embedding method which maps the vocabulary of the documents into a vector space, where each word is represented by a vector of real numbers, considering both the semantic and syntactic information content of the word in its context. One of the state-of-the-art word embedding techniques is word2vec [25], which is based on the use of efficient shallow neural network models. Although word2vec is able to capture the semantic and syntactic meaning of words, the main drawback of its application to short texts is that the document is represented by a set of vectors of words from which further processing is needed to extract features. Since neither word embedding methods nor LSA can alone fully capture accurate semantic features from short texts, in this work we develop a multistep feature extraction procedure (Figure 1) which combines LSA, word2vec and a CNN according to the scheme in [34]. In step 1), the short texts10 u 2 B petit? transformed into numerical matrices Xf using word2vec [25]. In step 2), the MPa same short texts {x} are transformed into numerical vectors yf, us ng the LSA method [22]. Then, a CNN which receives in input the matrix Xj, and provides in output the vector ys is built. The vector ‘h§ containing the activation of the neurons of the CNN fully connected layer provides a deep semantic representation of the short text xf, Feature extraction W Clustering 1 ON oy snipe [> oa a) 1 i Sep Comotaonal 1 Neural Netmore "1 TO-DO) | Fate vector}! come a) Hf _ Fully comesed, © O = OO ]— 4 teens (6), Convolution with padding Max pooling t [F Short ext! en seep temoranee Ly Figure 1. CNN-based maintenance records clustering With respect to step 1), the skip-gram model of word2vec is firstly used to generate d-dimensional vectors from the words of the maintenance records. Then, each short text x4, q = 1,..,m,p = 1, ..,Ng, is transformed into the dg X dy-dimensional matrix X¥ with d,, indicating the number of words of the longest short text. The generic i-th column of X$ is formed by the dg-dimensional vector generated by word2vec from the i-th word of the short text x8. Since the dimension of the CNN input is required to be fixed, all the documents {x} Avompetialg Af Manipulated to have the RPL10 u 2 3 14 15 16 v 18 19 20 2 2 23 24 25 26 7 same number of words. This is done by repeating words already used in the document until the number of words reaches dyy. For example, if the longest maintenance record document has dy, = 10 words, the document “repair crack and fabricate the component” is transformed into “repair crack and fabricate the component repair crack and fabricate”. With respect to 2), the only parameter to be set is the dimension d,s4 of vector y, which is typically set by trial-and-errors. With respect to step 3), a CNN is used to extract a powerful lumped d,-dimensional deep representation hj, of the short text x3. The architecture of a CNN typically consists of a series of convolutional, pooling and fully connected layers [42]. A convolutional layer applies a number of sliding convolutional filters to its input matrix, which will be referred to as X. Each filter moves along the input vertically and horizontally and computes the dot product between the matrixes of the weights Wyq and that of the input X. The output feature map Fyy of the generic m-th filter, m = La Nps is Fm = f(X*Wa + Bm) @) where Wyn and by, ate the weight matrix of dimension dy x dy and the bias of the m-th filter, respectively, and f is the activation function. The Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU), which is the most widely used activation function in CNNs [42], is employed in this work. To avoid the reduction of dimension when X is processed by the filters and transformed into Fy, the zero padding technique, which consists in adding dy — 1 rows and columns of zeros to the borders of the input matrix X, is used, A pooling layer typically follows a convolutional layer to provide a lower resolution representation of the feature map through sub-sampling. One of the most commonly used pooling methods is max pooling, which divides the feature map into a number of nonoverlapping dy X dy regions and selects the maximum value of each region, i.e. it provides in output a sub-matrix F,, € R“?*4» of the matrix Fy. Therefore, the max pooling reduces the dimensionality of the feature map from dy X dy to dg/dy X dy/dy. Then, Fy is fed to the following convolutional and pooling layers. Finally, a fully connected layer is applied to the extracted feature maps. In this work, the CNN is developed using as training set the N input-output pairs (X%, y8) formed by 910 u 2 13 4 18 16 v7 18 19 20 2 2 23 24 25 26 the word2vec X4 and the LSA yf representations of the short text x4. A d,-dimensional lumped representation Ag of the document xf is provided by the neuron of the fully connected layer which activates when the CNN receives in input X4 Once the feature extraction task is performed, the k-means algorithm [43] is applied to the N obtained vectors hf to provide clusters of homogeneous maintenance records. The number of clusters I to be identified by the algorithm is set by trial-and-error with the objective of maximizing the silhouette index [44], which measures how much a vector is similar to the vectors of the same cluster with respect to vectors of other clusters. 3.2 Stochastic multi-state degradation model A discrete state-continuous time stochastic model is used to describe the equipment degradation process. The description in discrete degradation state is justified by the fact that in practice equipment degradation typically proceeds in successive phases characterized by different physical degradation mechanisms and corresponding dynamics [45]. Furthermore, maintenance data are acquired during periodic inspections by operators in the form of qualitative class tags of equipment degradation [46]. For these reasons, multistate modeling is often adopted, e.g., to describe the evolution of degradation in membranes of pumps operated in nuclear power plants [47], in turbine nozzles used in the oil and gas industry [48], in components of the electrical industry [49], liners of marine diesel engine cylinders [50], and piping of nuclear power plants [46]. In this work, the degradation states {Sj} of the stochastic multi-state degradation model are =O... defined based on the clusters (C,)j-;,,.) extracted from available maintenance records with the method illustrated in Section 3.1. The hypothesis behind the correspondence between the degradation states and the maintenance record clusters is that operators tend to perform similar maintenance interventions on components that are found in similar degradation states at inspection. The number of actual degradation states, F +1, can be larger than the number of maintenance clusters, I, since the degradation process is not continuously observed and, thus, some states may be missed. The states are assumed in ascending order of degradation from 0 (new) to F (failure). Considering 1010 un 2 13 4 15 16 v7 18 19 20 2 2 2 24 25 two generic states S; and S;, with i 10 u 2 B 4 15 16 7 18 . since the repair cannot remove all the incurred damage. 3) the “failure-repair” process is repeated until the bucket is found by the operator in the state Sp of damage which is not repairable, and recorded in a maintenance report x4 belonging to cluster Cp. In this case, the failed bucket is replaced by a new bucket which starts operating in the “as-good~ new” condition, 1800 3 1600 1400 200 1000 800 0 2 4 6 "Number of repairs Figure 3. Mean time between failures with respect to the number of repairs Figure 4 shows the continuous time discrete state stochastic model. From a state Sj, j = 0,1,2,.5 ‘two state transitions are possible: 1) from S) to S)+1, in which the bucket fails and is found in a state of partial damage such that it can be repaired (maintenance record belonging to cluster C,); 2) from 5; 10 Sp, in which the bucket fails and is found in a state that requires replacement (maintenance record belonging to cluster C,);. We assume that the replacement is performed instantaneously. Figure 4, Stochastic mul state degradation model of the excavator bucket degradation process To verify whether the degradation and failure process is Markovian, the Lilliefors hypothesis test [58] is applied to the distributions of the transition tis ies At/-/*1 from state S; to state S),1, and At! from state 5; to state Sp. Transition times with j > 5 are not tested because of the scarcity of data. The Lilliefors hypothesis test has been chosen since it does not require to specify the transition rate 1610 u 2 3 4 15 16 uv 18 19 20 2 2 of the probability distribution. The null hypothesis of the test is that the transition times follow an exponential distribution. The analysis of the test results reported in Table 3 allows concluding that all the transition times except Ats, follow an exponential probability distribution, being the null hypothesis not rejected at the 5% significance level. Therefore, the failure process is considered Markovian and the constant transition rates are indicated as Aj j41 and Ajp, J = Oy1, 2, 40 ‘Table 3. Lilliefors hypothesis test of transition laws. “1”-reject null hypothesis, “O”-otherwise J Numberof Lilliefors__Numberof Lilliefors Atyjyx data test At) data test 0 82 0 26 0 1 61 0 21 0 2 47 0 4 0 3 40 1 7 0 4 35 0 6 0 5 28 0 7 0 Since the repair is imperfect and the bucket is more likely to fail when more repairs have been performed, it is expected that 2j,j41 < Ajsa,j2, and Aj < Ajsa,p. Therefore, to reduce the number of parameters to be estimated, according to [59], we assume that: loa@,a > 1 BiB >1 ©) where Ap. Aor, and B are the four model parameters to be estimated. The following parameter values are obtained by applying the MLE method with the likelihood function reported in Appendix A a 1.0274, Ap = 5.0090e — 471, B = 1.0093, Aor = 1.3843e — 4h a 4.4 Maintenance optimization We consider the possibility of replacing the currently adopted corrective maintenance approach in which the buckets are replaced only when they are not repairable, with a planned maintenance approach M"(J), J > 0, in which the buckets are replaced at the J-th failure, Figure 5 shows the continuous time-discrete state stochastic model representing the planned maintenance policy M*(J). It is characterized by J + 2 states {So,5), Sp} and the transition jt, from state $ to state Sq is assumed to be instantaneous (}1j.9 = ©), ic. the bucket is immediately uv1 2 10 u 2 B 14 1s 16 uv 18 19 20 21 22 23 replaced by a new one at the J-th failure. Notice that the corrective maintenance approach currently adopted can be represented by the model M*(c). Figure §. Stochastic multi-state model for the planned maintenance policy Assuming the cost of an unplanned replacement equal to 1 in arbitrary unit, the cost of a repair is indicated by B, and that of a planned replacement by By, with B, < By <1, since a planned maintenance activity is expected to be less expensive than an unplanned one and a repair is expected to be less expensive than a replacement [60]. Considering a long period of time, T = 62050h, the expected total maintenance cost B is: B= N,B, + NyBy + Nunp #1 (8) where N,, Ny and Nynp are the expected numbers of repair, planned replacement and unplanned replacement in the time period [0,7], respectively. Notice that assuming that repair and replacement times are negligible, the total maintenance cost is not influenced by the loss of production due to reduced availability of the excavators. The objective of maintenance optimization is to find the optimal value J? which minimizes the maintenance cost rate B/T. Given the difficulty of obta ing close-form analytical solutions for the maintenance cost of complex stochastic degradation and failure processes, we resort to Monte Carlo simulation. Appendix B provides the details of the performed Monte Carlo simulation. Figure 6 shows the optimal value J°?* as a function of B, and By. As expected, the CM strategy (J = ¢) is the optimal one when the repair cost i ignificantly smaller than the planned replacement cost (white region). Also, when the cost of replacement is less or close to the cost of repair, it is convenient to replace the bucket at its first failure, Figure 7 shows the total maintenance cost as a function of J in the case of B, = 0.6 and By 0.8. If the component is replaced after too few failures (J < 3), the large maintenance cost is due to 181 the cost of the large number of replacements to be performed, whereas if it is replaced after too many 2 failures (J > 10), the large cost is mainly due to the large number of repairs, since the failures start 3 being very frequent due to the imperfect repair. The cost is relatively small when J is in the range 4 [4,10], with a minimum for J°?¢ yn 0 02 04 «0608 B, 6 Figure 6. Optimal numberof failures for the component replacement as a function of the cost of repair and planned 7 replacement (cost of unplanned replacement is assumed to be 1) 104 \ B-0.8.8,-08 48 46 0 5 10 ISO 8 9 Figure 7. Maintenance cost rate B/T’ as a function of the number of failures J before component replacement 10 115. Conclusion 12 A novel method for maintenance optimization based on maintenance record analysis is presented. Its 13. main contribution is the combination of advanced CNN-based text analysis methods with a 14 stochastic multi-state degradation model of the equipment degradation and failure process. It has 15 been verified considering a real industrial case study considering the optimization of the maintenance 1910 u 2 3 4 15 16 v7 18 19 20 2 2 23 24 25 of excavator buckets used in the mining industry. The obtained results show that the proposed method is able to automatically identify clusters made by homogeneous maintenance records without the requirement of expert intervention, construct a stochastic multi-state de; equipment degradation and failure process, and optimize maintenance. Acknowledgment Zhe Yang gratefully acknowledges the financial support from the China Scholarship Council (No. 201506280015) for performing this work while at Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano. The participation of Piero Baraldi and Enrico Zio has been funded by INAIL within the BRIC/2018, ID = 11 framework, project MAC4PRO. We greatly appreciate the help from Melinda Hodkiewicz who is with University of Westen Australia, Crawley WA 6009, AUS, for providing the database of maintenance records. Appendix A The parameter estimation problem of the stochastic multi-state model is formulated as an optimization problem, where the likelihood of having the sequence composed of time and the corresponding degradation state of the buckets is to be maximized. Resorting to the MLE technique, the likelihood function to be maximized is: ayes] Tito {I (Al) where Jy = 23 is the maximum number of repairs for a bucket in the database, Njj,, is the total number of transitions from state S; to state Sj, and At{/** is the k-th transition time from state $j to state Sia. j = 0, J — 1. Similarly, Nfp is the total number of transitions from state 5; to state Sp and At" is the k-th transition time, j Im- The log-likelihood function is: log = Yims? 1 j,j+0 Nip j.F Yes pvsnel!?— apa] +59 log aye — &naeh — ygerbth + Sele log aya — Aig rth] (a2) Combined with Eq. (6), Eq. (A2) becomes: 2010 u 2 3 14 15 16 uv 18 19 20 a logh = E}"54Y, Wes log Aga + flog a — Ag sa/Ath!** — Ag pBIae}!**] + Del [log doe + Ao + flog i jlogB - Ay pBiath” — ox Ach} + Sit! [log dar + J logs — Ao eBmatyn” | (a3) To maximize the above equation, let: alog Qlog _ dlogt _ dog! Ga lyr OB (a4) then the following equations with respect to the parameters are obtained: ys bmn Nias F api Im~ Im: Bde Mion Sto se li nl + SH ae] — Bes ns oD} sits acl] =0 Eiy Nha doa = ag pthivtaghivisg™ Paci?) way ols ef Puen Etomie {sles fie? sles ant] + Bye, [se! Dy%4 act] — Dhey Nie foes nt api] + af, [orn arf} =o EDN ey agp! ]oxfey| or! anf] Given the difficulty of deriving close-form analytical solutions for o and , they are numerically solved; then, Ap, and Ap p are computed using Eq. (AS), Appendix B The degradation process of the bucket under planned maintenance policies M"(J) (Figure 5), J € [1,2, .., 20,00] are simulated NM = 50000 times within T = 62050 hours, respectively. Given a specific value of J, M"(J) including states Sj, j = 0,1,..,J-1,J,F, is simulated by the following steps: 1) At t = 0, the bucket is in state Sp, i. the as-good-as-new state. 2) Sample the times of all the possible transitions, i.e. sample to. and tp,- from Sq to states S, and Sy, from exponential distributions E (Ao) and E (Aor), respectively. 210 un 2 13 14 15 16 uv 18 19 20 2 2 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 3) Set the sojourn time at state Sp as t = min(to;), j = 1, F, whereas the arrival state S; is the one that corresponds to arg(t). Therefore, the bucket enters state 5; after the respective time Tp,j, ie. at lime t= 0+ t9) = Tj. 4) Sample the sojourn times in the proceeding states up to ¢ = T, referring to steps 1)-3). Notice that the bucket immediately transients to the state Sp when it arrives in Sp or Sj, i. the sojourn time is 0 in Sp or S, 5) Count the number of arrivals in each state N(Sj). j = 1, JF. 6) Repeat steps 1)-5) NM times. Compute the average numbers of arrivals in each state N(Sj), j = 1, J, F on the N™ trials, 7) Compute N,()) = 123 W(S)). NpO) = N(5)). NunpU) = NS). ‘Then, by varying the value of J and repeating the steps 1)-7) of simulation, compute N,(/), Np(/). Nunp() with respect to J € (1,2, ..,20,00] Reference [1] J, Lee, B. Bagheri, and H.-A. Kao, "A cyber-physical systems architecture for industry 4,0-based manufacturing systems.” Manufacturing letters, 2015. 3: pp. 18-23, [2] S, Kermanshachi, M.M. Cobanoglu, and I. 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