The document discusses required return, equity risk premium, and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) for calculating the required return on equity. It defines required return as the minimum expected return an investor requires to invest given an asset's riskiness. The CAPM estimates required return based on the risk-free rate, the asset's beta measuring systematic risk relative to the market, and the equity risk premium. The document provides an example calculating the required return on equity for 3 companies using their betas and country-specific equity risk premiums.
The document discusses required return, equity risk premium, and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) for calculating the required return on equity. It defines required return as the minimum expected return an investor requires to invest given an asset's riskiness. The CAPM estimates required return based on the risk-free rate, the asset's beta measuring systematic risk relative to the market, and the equity risk premium. The document provides an example calculating the required return on equity for 3 companies using their betas and country-specific equity risk premiums.
The document discusses required return, equity risk premium, and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) for calculating the required return on equity. It defines required return as the minimum expected return an investor requires to invest given an asset's riskiness. The CAPM estimates required return based on the risk-free rate, the asset's beta measuring systematic risk relative to the market, and the equity risk premium. The document provides an example calculating the required return on equity for 3 companies using their betas and country-specific equity risk premiums.
Required Return (1/3) ◼ Required Rate of Return (or simply, Required Return) is the minimum level of expected return that an investor requires in order to invest in the asset over a specified time period, given the asset’s riskiness. Required Return (2/3) ◼ Different investors may have different required returns due to the difference in investment profiles, available information, available opportunities, etc. ◼ Nevertheless, generic estimate of required return for an asset can be obtained from models (e.g. Capital Asset Pricing Model) using observed marketplace data and variables (e.g. asset returns) rather than based on the return requirements of individual investors. As the market variables contain the information about the investors’ asset risk perception and their level of risk aversion, fair compensation for risk to the investors are determined. Hence, the estimate of required return for the asset represents the investors’ requirements in general. Required Return (3/3) ◼ For common stock and debt, in the perspective of issuer, the required rates of return are known as cost of equity and cost of debt respectively. ‒ To raise new capital, the issuer would have to offer expected return for the security which is competitive with the expected returns offered by other securities with similar risk. ‒ The required return on a security is the issuer’s marginal cost for raising additional capital of the same type. ◼ The estimates of required returns are important in the use of present value models as the models require applying appropriate discount rates to discount the expected future cash flows to present values. Equity Risk Premium (1/4) ◼ Equity risk premium is the incremental return (premium) that investors require for holding equities rather than the risk- free asset. Thus, it is the difference between the required return on equities (typically represented by an equity market index) and the expected risk-free rate of return. Equity Risk Premium (2/4) ◼ In general, for an average systematic risk equity security, Required return on = Current expected + 𝛽 × Equity risk premium equity security i risk- free return 𝑖
Required return on the equity security is adjusted by the
security’s specific equity risk premium for systematic risk which is measured as a coefficient of beta (𝛽𝑖 ). − If 𝛽𝑖 = 1, systematic risk of the security is average. − If 𝛽𝑖 < 1, systematic risk of the security is lower than average. − If 𝛽𝑖 > 1, systematic risk of the security is higher than average. Equity Risk Premium (3/4) ◼ Estimate of equity risk premium for the whole equity market of a country can be calculated as the mean value of the historical differences between the returns of a broad-based equity market index and the returns of government debts over a sample period. Equity Risk Premium (4/4) ◼ The historical estimate is determined based on the selection of following elements: − (a) the index to represent equity market returns − (b) the sample period − (c) the type of mean calculated − (d) the proxy for risk-free return The Required Return on Equity – CAPM (1/6) ◼ As the estimates of equity risk premium are available, the required return on the equity of a particular issuer can be estimated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). ◼ In a portfolio of securities, the idiosyncratic (specific) risk of individual securities tend to offset each other leaving largely the market (systematic) risk. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a model for required return which states the relationship that should hold in equilibrium if the assumptions of the model are met which mainly include, − investors are risk averse. − investors make investment decisions based on the mean return and variance of returns of their total portfolio. The Required Return on Equity – CAPM (2/6) ◼ The expression for the CAPM used in practice is as follows: Required return on = Current expected + 𝛽 × Equity risk premium equity security i risk- free return 𝑖
◼ Systematic risk is the risk inherent to the entire market
that cannot be eliminated by diversification. The CAPM evaluates the risk of a security in terms of its contribution to the systematic risk (measured as 𝛽𝑖 ) of the whole portfolio. The Required Return on Equity – CAPM (3/6) ◼ The equation for the CAPM is as follows: E(Ri) = E(RF ) + βi × [E(RM) – E(RF )] where, E(Ri) = Expected return on a security i E(RF) = Expected risk-free rate (no default risk) βi = Beta of security i (being the return sensitivity of security i to changes in market return) E(RM) = Expected market return E(RM) – E(RF ) = Expected market risk premium ◼ Practical notes : ‒ The yield of default-free government debt instruments are commonly taken as proxies for the risk-free rates. ‒ In practice, return of equity market index is taken to represent E(RM). The estimated market risk premium is in fact an estimate of the Equity Risk Premium (ERP). The security’s beta is estimated relative to the equity market index. The Required Return on Equity – CAPM (4/6) ◼ The asset’s beta measures its systematic risk (or market risk) which is the sensitivity of its returns to the returns on the “market portfolio” of risky assets. ◼ The beta of security 𝑖 is as follows: 𝜎𝑖𝑚 𝛽𝑖 = 𝜎𝑚 2 where 𝜎𝑖𝑚 is the covariance of the returns of security 𝑖 with the returns of the market portfolio, and 𝜎𝑚 2 is the variance of the returns of the market portfolio. ◼ In practice for equity valuation, the market portfolio is usually represented by a broad value-weighted equity market index. The Required Return on Equity – CAPM (5/6) ◼ Example: (Source : CFA Curriculum) Exxon Mobil Corporation, BP p.l.c., and Total S.A. are three “super major” integrated oil and gas companies headquartered, respectively, in the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. An analyst estimates that the equity risk premium in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Eurozone are, respectively, 4.5 percent, 4.1 percent, and 4.0 percent. Other information is summarized as followings:
Using the CAPM to calculate the required return on equity.
The Required Return on Equity – CAPM (6/6) ◼ Example (Continued): Solution : According to the CAPM, the required return on equity for Exxon Mobil : 3.20% + 0.77 × 4.50% = 6.67% for BP p.l.c. : 3.56% + 1.99 × 4.10% = 11.72% for Total S.A.. : 2.46% + 1.53 × 4.0% = 8.58%