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Iranian Drones Are A Menace Over Ukraine - 21st Century Asian Arms Race
Iranian Drones Are A Menace Over Ukraine - 21st Century Asian Arms Race
Iranian Drones Are A Menace Over Ukraine - 21st Century Asian Arms Race
DECEMBER 3, 2022
tags: AFU-Stratcom, Geran-1/2, loitering munitions, Shahed-136
(https://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.files.wordpress.com/2022/12/ukraine-russian-geran-2-
wreckage.jpg)
Wreckage
of a
Geran-2
in Kyiv.
Via social
media.
What could be the world’s biggest humanitarian crisis is unfolding in Ukraine as its electricity supply
dwindles after relentless airstrikes orchestrated by Russia. Since October 10 waves of cruise missiles
and loitering munitions wrecked critical infrastructure and other civilian targets as battlefield
reversals forced Russia’s army to retreat across the Dnipro River and consolidate its frontline. But the
slow retribution Moscow exacted has taken its toll, with most Ukrainian citizens now rationing their
power usage (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-
40fcb95d1940825b99188256ee218d0d) as NATO scrambles to have generators and other humanitarian
aid delivered as quickly as possible.
Part of this campaign to further devastate the country
(https://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.com/2022/03/21/russia-is-demolishing-ukraine-with-tactical-
missiles/) are the “Shahed” or Geran-1 and Geran-2 loitering munitions, or “kamikaze drones” as
described by media, that are straining Ukraine’s air defenses. These weapons are of Iranian origin
and assembled with dual use parts then delivered to Russia as the Geran-1/2. The previous record
(https://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.com/2022/10/24/russia-is-pouring-loitering-munitions-into-
ukraine/) that logged Geran-1/2 shootdowns from September 13 until October 23 was inconclusive as
to whether they were being eliminated in sufficient numbers. The same result applies for the period
from October 24 until November 30 tabulated below. In fact, the only notable change is the volume of
Geran-1/2 shootdowns; they have diminished and none are reported since November 18.
(https://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.files.wordpress.com/2022/12/december-2-2022-ukraine-stratcom-
russian-missile-launches-in-november.jpg)
Vis
Stratcom
Center
UA.
The problem is, when examining the record of Geran-1/2 shootdowns since November based on
AFU-Stratcom and Ukrainian media, the total for the former is 42 shootdowns in November alone
and not 64 as claimed by Stratcom Center UA. It’s only when the shootdowns from the large attack
on October 25 and 26 are added that the total almost matches the infographic published by Stratcom
Center UA. On the other hand, the total of Geran-1/2 shootdowns as reported by Ukrainian media for
November complements the data from Stratcom Center UA.
The Ukrainian government’s efforts to highlight their success against the Geran-1/2 is very
inconsistent. On November 5 Pres. Zelensky himself claimed that the armed forces are shooting
down 10 kamikaze drones each day. However, if this were the case then 300 Geran-1/2 losses would
have been reported by AFU-Stratcom for the month of November. By the end of the month a
spokesman for the air force claimed Russia’s supply of Geran-1/2’s are depleted, as this was just a
“first batch,” and this explains why attacks stopped in the last two weeks. It’s an assertion echoed by
Western analysts, including think tanks, but is hard to verify.
(https://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.files.wordpress.com/2022/12/ukraine-ukrinform-november-5-
quote.jpg)
Via
Ukrinform.
* Stratcom Center UA is a program under the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy
Blog at WordPress.com.