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Artificial Intelligencein FOREX
Artificial Intelligencein FOREX
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Tarana Azimova
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Chapter 5
ABSTRACT
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Corresponding Author’s Email: tarana.azimova@nisantasi.edu.tr.
82 Tarana Azimova
INTRODUCTION
Internet site for customer trading Deal4Free, was developed in the USA in
1996 (Esen, 2018; Rime, 2003). The Internet served as a significant catalyst
in the effort to increase communication and trade between nations. New
search engines such as Google changed the complete face of international
trade and increased the demand for the foreign exchange market as traders
could effectively communicate around the world, set orders on the spot,
forward and swap exchange markets. The Internet has in effect demolished
all boundaries around countries and unified the exchange markets (BIS,
2018). The foreign exchange market currently offers new trading
opportunities through mobile solutions while foreign exchange market
participants use mobile applications that enable them to invest, or open
positions in the market, close positions, and track their profits
instantaneously and at a very low cost.
Nowadays, the foreign exchange market is moving towards what could
be defined as a “technological frontier three”, which refers to the
introduction of even more complex technologies, such as hybrid AI systems,
used to predict exchange rates.
Accordingly, this chapter discusses the way AI trading affects the
foreign exchange market. Specifically, it discusses the phenomena arising
out of using AI in the foreign exchange market; the implications of emerging
technologies on the way the participants communicate and get access to the
market; and the impact of new technologies on market efficiency. An
attempt is made to to fill a conceptual gap and contribute to the existing
academic literature on recent technological advancements and the increasing
speed of adopting new technologies in the foreign exchange market.
Most of the transactions in the foreign exchange are carried out via
interbank, which is the primary money market. Because inter-bank
transactions represent over 90 percent of the total volume of the foreign
exchange market, and have no centralized physical market place,
participants’ interaction is assisted by technology (BIS, 2018).
The foreign exchange market may be depicted as follows: (i) the market
is geographically dispersed and does not have a centralized market system;
(ii) there is uninterrupted trading across the markets; (iii) there is a great
number of market participants that provide liquidity to the market; and (iv)
the trading volume is big and increases rapidly over time (Tygier, 1986)
Therefore, having these characteristics, the foreign exchange market
heavily relies on technology, which influences the way foreign exchange
participants, such as large commercial banks, businesses, foreign exchange
brokers, and central banks interact with each other.
From a historical perspective, in older days, trading in foreign exchange,
could be described as primitive, as the number of transactions and the
participating countries and companies were limited (Tygier, 1986).
However, in the last few decades, foreign exchange has experienced major
changes. Starting in the 1970s, direct trading was performed by telex or
telephone. From 1981 onwards, the foreign exchange started to apply the
Reuters Data Market Services for communicating trading interests; first
introduced by Reuters. The system was a closed network for bilateral
electronic communication. Even though the system was considered as
technologically advanced, the Reuters Data Market Services did not become
an evolutionary system for the foreign exchange market (Esen, 2018; Rime,
2003).
It was only in 2000 that the conventional trading technology gradually
started to re-engineer and become the dominant trading and interaction
Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the Foreign Exchange Market 85
Source: Rime, (2003). New Electronic Trading Systems in Foreign Exchange Markets.
The first and the second lines in Figure 1 show that the order came from
the counterpart who is the dealer. The order shows the name of the dealer,
institution code, date and number assigned to the order. The third line
86 Tarana Azimova
financial services with certain commissions. Since then, the new technology
decreased dramatically the extent to which customers relied on banks
(Dmour, 2019; Choi, 2000).
In 1981, Reuters developed the first electronic trading system, Reuters
Dealing 2000-1, which was similar to a network supporting bilateral trade.
However, Internet trading is comparatively new in the foreign exchange
market. The first nonbank Internet site for customer trading Deal4Free, was
developed in the USA in 1996. The introduction of several nonbank Internet
sites such as IFX Markets and MatchbookFX in 1999, HotSpotFX and
OANDA in 2001, and ChoiceFX in 2002, allowed market participants in the
USA to start customer-to-customer trading (Esen, 2018; Rime, 2003).
According to Rime (2003), most of these systems are organized as
crossing networks, but they try to resemble electronic brokers. Crossing
networks are trading systems that obtain their prices from another trading
venue; hence there is no price discovery (price discovery is the process of
determining the actual price of an asset). However, systems like the
Currency Management Corporation (CMC)’s Deal4Free resemble the
traditional direct trading and it has its own price discovery. Other systems
like ChoiceFX depend on limit orders from customers (a limit order is an
order that is placed by an electronic broker to trade a security at or better
than a specified price).
Initially, a banks’ response to a nonbank Internet trading platform for
customers was to install their own customer sites. Nowadays, however,
almost all transactions in the over-the-counter market are carried out via the
interbank market (global network used by financial institutions for trade).
Modern time technology, such as online currency trading platforms and the
internet offer a gateway to the interbank market. Regarding the bank–
customer relationship, Joel (2017) suggests that the Internet trading can
become so successful that banks could lose their entire customer trading.
Presently, the foreign exchange market is still a hybrid market in the sense
that it combines Internet and conventional trading (Joel, 2017).
One significant outcome in the use of AI in foreign exchange markets
due to market accessibility is an increase in the market’s liquidity, and hence
an increase in the daily turnover (see Table 1).
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Table 1 demonstrates that the daily turnover in the biggest Over the
Counter (OTC) foreign exchange markets has expanded overall. In 1995 and
1998, the average global daily turnover of the online trading platform was
$1,633 Billion and $2,099 Billion respectively. In 2010, the daily turnover
increased by almost 3 times, when compared to 2001 and amounted to
$5,045 Billion. The only downfall was in 2001, when the average daily
turnover decreased to $1,705 Billion. In 2016, the average daily turnover in
the foreign exchange market increased by almost 30 percent compared to
2015 and amounted to 6,514 Billion US Dollars. The statistics illustrate that
AI allows foreign exchange to be less manipulative and almost unbreakable.
Fierce competition made technology development companies reduce the
price in the use of technology for foreign exchange markets. This in turn
made it more accessible and available to not only large entities with big
funding sources, but also to smaller institutions and entities. By offering a
gateway to the main money market, technology has allowed smaller entities
to have an equal access to similar level liquidity in the OTC market.
Market Efficiency
CONCLUSION
REFERENCES