JKAU: Met., Env. & Arid Land Agric. Sci., Vol. 23, No. 1, pp: 85-108 (2012 A.D.

/1433 A.H.)
DOI: 10.4197/Met. 23-1.6

Temperature Variability over Saudi Arabia and its

Association with Global Climate Indices

Mansour Almazroui
Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research / Department of
Meteorology, Faculty of Meteorology, Environment and Arid Land
Agriculture, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
mansour@kau.edu.sa

Abstract. This paper investigates the effect of large-scale forcings on

the variability of the mean air temperature of Saudi Arabia, using the
observed data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction
(NCEP) reanalysis gridded datasets for the period 1978-2010. The
analysis shows that the seasonal mean temperature variability is high
in the northern and central regions compared to the southern.
Moreover, the temperature variability is highest (~30%) in the winter
season and lowest (~2 %) in the summer. Following global warming
indications, the interannual variability of the mean air temperature of
Saudi Arabia indicates a warming phase that started in the late 1990s.
The analysis reveals that the strong variability in temperature
over Saudi Arabia is closely associated with the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) index for all seasons except the autumn; however,
the relationship is most prominent during the winter season. The study
indicates that the winter season temperature is also influenced by the
Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, whereas the spring season temperature
is influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This
research concludes that the negative phases of ENSO, AO and NAO
all play a major role in the temperature increase over most parts of
Saudi Arabia.
Keywords: Temperature, Saudi Arabia, ENSO, NAO, AO.

____________________
Author’s Address: Dr. Mansour Almazroui, Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research
(CECCR) / Dept of Meteorology, Faculty of Meteorology, Environment and Arid Land
Agriculture, King Abdulaziz University, P. O. Box 80234, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia.

85
86 Mansour Almazroui

Introduction
Temperature is one of the most important climatic parameters, and it can
seriously impact the socio-economic condition of a region. Temperature
is intimately related to agriculture, drought, water resources, power
generation, human health, urbanization, and cold- and heat-wave
extremes. For example, rising temperature has a direct effect on crop
yields as well as indirect effects on the availability of irrigation water
(Nelson et al., 2009). Cueto et al. (2009) found that the minimum
temperatures within the urban area of Mexicali city are increasing at a
faster rate than in the surrounding rural area, they found an intimate
relationship between urbanization and local temperature. Ultimately, the
increase in temperatures in the urban climate has negative implications
for energy, water consumption and human health.
In the present era of global warming and climate change,
understanding the exact climatic situation, especially information relating
to temperature extremes, is critical. The average global surface air
temperature has increased by about 0.6 ± 0.2 °C since the late nineteenth
century (Folland et al., 2001), where the rate of warming in the global
surface air temperature during the last half century (1956-2005) was
0.128°C/decade (IPCC, 2007). However, the temperature of a region
varies with topographic characteristics such as high and low elevations,
land coverage and land types. In addition, temperature falls with increase
in altitude, whilst the warmness of a region also depends on surface
terrestrial albedo, which is high over sandy areas like the Rub Al-Khali
desert in Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia is situated in the southwest of Asia at the junction of
Africa and Asia and is the largest country (occupying 80% of area) in the
Arabian Peninsula (CSD, 2010). The country has mountain ranges in the
western region, situated parallel to the coast of the Red Sea. The Rub Al-
Khali is the world’s largest sand desert, which covers almost the entire
south-eastern region of Saudi Arabia (Atlas, 1984; Edgell, 2006; and
Bishop, 2010). The climate of Saudi Arabia is extremely hot and dry
(Almazroui, 1998; and Ragab and Prudhomme, 2000). The rainfall
climatology, as studied by Almazroui (2011), is such that the country
receives large amounts of rainfall in the northern, central-northern and
south-western regions, whereas the south-eastern region is almost
entirely dry. The south-western region of Saudi Arabia receives rainfall
 Temperature Variability Over Saudi Arabia and its Association with … 87
in almost all months of the year, whereas the northern region receives
most of its rainfall during the winter and spring seasons (Almazroui,
2011; Abdullah and Almazroui, 1998; and Al-Jerash, 1985). In the
northern region of the country, the climate parameters are associated with
westerly disturbances, the Sudan trough and the storms of the
Mediterranean region, whereas the southern climate is influenced by the
Indian Ocean monsoon circulation (Sen and Al-Suba’i, 2002).
A few studies have been conducted in the Arabian region to
understand the behaviour of its temperature climatology: For the whole
of the Middle East, (Bou-Zeid and El-Fadel, 2002); for Saudi Arabia,
(El-Nesr et al., 2010); for Kuwait, (Nasrallah and Balling, 1995); and for
Jordan (Smadi, 2006). However, most of these studies mainly addressed
the temperature trends and their relationship with water resource
management. Furthermore, these studies used the available surface
observation data, which are very sparse in this region.
Of further significance is the fact that ENSO, NAO and AO are
also major drivers of the climate of the northern hemisphere, as discussed
in several studies, and it is therefore of vital importance to examine the
effects of these external forces (NAO and AO) on the region’s climate.
However, in the past, very little research has been conducted to address
the relationship between the temperature and the large-scale forcings in
the study region. For example, Almazroui (2006) studied the mean
temperature of only four stations over Saudi Arabia and their relationship
with ENSO phenomena. Unfortunately, no attempt has been made so far
to detect the impact of NAO and AO on the seasonal temperatures of
Saudi Arabia. This work is thus the first attempt at investigating the
effects of these large-scale forcings on the temperature over Saudi
Arabia. Specifically, the current study investigates the relationship
between the mean temperatures in Saudi Arabia with the large-scale
forcings, using the available observed data (from 27 stations) and the
gridded reanalysis datasets. It is envisaged that the research will be useful
in understanding how ENSO, AO and NAO affect the temperature
climatology of the study area.

Data and Methodology

The daily temperature data of 27 stations from the years 1978-2010
were acquired from the Presidency of Meteorology and Environment
88 Mansour Almazroui

(PME), Saudi Arabia. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction

(NCEP) surface mean air temperature (Kalnay et al., 1996) gridded data
are also utilized. The station details, together with mean temperatures
(averaged over 1978-2010) on the annual and seasonal timescales in
Saudi Arabia, are given in Table 1. The station acronyms from this table
are used for the rest of the study. The large-scale features, such as
Niño3.4, AO and NAO data, are utilized to identify their effects on the
temperature of Saudi Arabia. These large-scale monthly time series data
were obtained from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) at the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) website (http: //www.
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/).
Table 1. The observation station details, with mean temperature (°C) on annual and
seasonal scales in Saudi Arabia, averaged over 1978-2010.
Station Information Temperature (°C)
Lat Lon Elevation
Name Acronym Annual DJF MAM JJA SON
(oN) (oE) (m)
Turaif S1 31.68 38.73 852 18.96 8.57 18.28 28.32 20.62
Gurayat S2 31.4 37.28 504 20.08 10.12 19.70 28.90 21.59
Arar S3 30.9 41.14 550 22.17 10.54 21.72 32.72 23.67
Al Jouf S4 29.78 40.1 670 21.86 10.96 21.45 31.50 23.50
Rafha S5 29.62 43.49 445 23.28 11.81 23.13 33.24 24.90
Tabuk S6 28.37 36.6 770 22.15 12.31 22.02 30.67 23.58
Al
S7 28.33 46.12 360 25.34 13.42 25.41 35.67 26.82
Qaysumah
Hafer
S8 27.9 45.53 412 25.00 13.18 25.05 35.33 26.48
Albaten
Hail S9 27.44 41.69 1000 21.90 11.73 21.71 30.78 23.38
Gassim S10 26.3 43.77 648 24.81 14.19 24.90 34.02 26.12
Dhahran S11 26.26 50.16 22 26.91 16.99 26.45 35.74 28.45
Wejh S12 26.2 36.47 20 24.96 19.77 24.36 29.11 26.60
Ahsa S13 25.3 49.49 180 27.28 16.37 27.40 36.91 28.42
Riyadh New S14 24.92 46.72 612 25.47 15.05 25.90 34.64 26.31
Riyadh Old S15 24.71 46.73 610 26.59 16.07 26.92 35.82 27.53
Madinah S16 24.54 39.7 630 28.17 19.13 28.07 35.90 29.53
Yenbo S17 24.14 38.06 8 27.84 21.60 27.33 32.83 29.57
Jeddah S18 21.71 39.18 18 28.70 24.22 28.16 32.44 29.98
Taif S19 21.48 40.55 1455 22.98 16.42 22.94 29.18 23.38
Makkah S20 21.43 39.79 273 31.42 25.39 31.48 36.11 32.67
Al Baha S21 20.29 41.64 1655 23.12 17.05 23.20 28.99 23.25
Bisha S22 19.99 42.61 1167 25.21 18.40 26.10 31.73 24.64
Khamis
S23 18.29 42.8 2047 19.89 15.24 20.15 24.48 19.72
Mushait
Abha S24 18.23 42.66 2100 18.90 14.15 19.08 23.56 18.79
Najran S25 17.61 44.41 1213 24.99 18.32 26.23 31.48 23.95
Sharurah S26 17.47 47.12 727 27.74 20.18 29.12 34.33 27.37
Jazan
S27 16.9 42.58 4 30.64 26.68 30.62 33.97 31.30
(Gizan)
 Temperature Variability Over Saudi Arabia and its Association with … 89
The spatial and temporal analyses of temperature on the annual and
seasonal scales are performed using standard statistical methods. The
annual cycle, mean and standard deviation of temperature are obtained
from the observed seasonal dataset. The temperature climatology is
obtained from the NCEP data on the monthly, seasonal and annual
timescales. The interannual variability of temperature obtained from the
NCEP dataset for an area confined between 35°-60°E and 12°-22°N is
compared with the observed country average data across Saudi Arabia.
The coefficient of variation (CV) is used to obtain the mean temperature
variability over the region. The effects of the large-scale natural forcings,
such as ENSO, NAO, and AO, on the mean seasonal temperature over
Saudi Arabia are studied using both the observed station and the gridded
datasets. The Student’s t-test is used to assess the significance of the
relationship of these forcings with the seasonal mean temperatures over
the region under study.

Results and Discussion

Figure 1 shows the topography of the study region and its
surroundings because the temperature varies with the elevation and other
topographic factors such as land characteristics and vegetation. It is
apparent in Fig. 1 that there is a flat, low-elevation (<500m) north-south
inclined strip located in eastern Saudi Arabia. This relatively low-
elevation belt is narrower in the north and wider in the south. To the west
of this low-elevation belt, another north-south inclined belt is located
with relatively high elevation. In this belt, most of the land is under
1000m, with the exception of a very few locations where elevation
reaches up to 1500m. The elevation of this mountain range, however,
reaches over 2000m in southwestern Yemen. The temperature over Saudi
Arabia varies with this topographic variation.
The surface observation stations are mostly located in the western
and northern parts of the country. The low-dense network of observation
stations in the north is not able to reflect the exact characteristics of the
spatial temperature distribution. In addition, no observational facilities
are available in the southeast of the country, where the Rub Al-Khali is
situated.
90 Mansour Almazroui

Fig. 1. The topography in and around Saudi Arabia. The acronyms of the surface
observation stations (see Table 1) and their locations (red dots) are also shown.

Temperature Variability
Seasonal Variability
At first, the temperature variability at seasonal scale obtained from
the observed data is discussed followed by the NCEP data explanation.
The mean and one sigma deviation of the observed temperature
from 27 stations over Saudi Arabia are shown in Fig. 2. The horizontal
axis shows the station acronym from north to south of Saudi Arabia
according to Table 1. In each graph the center point (dot mark) is the
mean of the temperature at a particular station for the study period (1978-
2010) and the dispersion is the one sigma standard deviation. In general,
relatively low temperature is observed for the northern stations during
winter season, whilst the temperature of the southern stations are low in
other (spring, summer and autumn) seasons. The seasonal temperature
 Temperature Variability Over Saudi Arabia and its Association with … 91
variability for the stations located in the north and the central areas of
Saudi Arabia is high compared to the stations situated in the south (also
see Table 1). There is a gradient of high variability in the north to the low
variability in the south.
For example, the mean temperature at the extreme north station
(S1) ranges from 8.57°–28.32°C in different seasons, however at the
southern station (S27) it ranges from 26.68°–33.97°C (see Table 1). This
infers a large seasonal cycle in the northern region compared to the
southern. Overall, during the winter season this gradient of temperature
variability seems to be high and it is almost stagnant during the summer.
This happened because the northern and central regions of Saudi Arabia
are under the influence of westerly disturbances from the Mediterranean
Sea during the winter season.
The low-density network of surface observation stations across
Saudi Arabia means that we are unable to infer the temperature
distribution in the country with a sufficiently high degree of accuracy.
Thus, the NCEP gridded data were considered for assessing the level of
accuracy of the temperatures obtained from the observed data.
The Coefficient of Variability (CV) obtained from the NCEP data
during winter, spring, summer and autumn seasons are shown in Fig. 3.
In general, the temperature variability is high in the northern region of
Saudi Arabia, compared to the southern region of the country, for all
seasons; the gradient of this temperature variability is again from the
northern region (high) to the southern region (low). The variability
gradient is more prominent during the winter season, compared to the
other seasons. These results are fully consistent with the results of the
observed data discussed earlier (see Fig. 2). In the northern region, the
CV reached about 30% during the winter season, whilst during the
summer it was much less pronounced, reaching only about 2%.
Interannual Variability
The interannual variability of the seasonal temperature anomaly
obtained from the observed and the NCEP data is shown in Fig. 4. The
anomalies are obtained for all seasons, considering the reference period
from 1978 to 2010. The observed temperature is averaged from all 27
stations used, whereas the NCEP temperature is the areal averaged over
the region between 35°-60°E and 12°-22°N.
92 Mansour Almazroui

(a) Winter (DJF) (c) Summer (JJA)

39 39
36 36
33 33

Temperature (°C)
Temperature (°C)

30 30
27 27
24 24
21 21
18 18
15 15
12 12
9 9
6 6

S1
S4
S7
S10
S13
S16
S19
S22
S25
S11
S13
S15
S17
S19
S21
S23
S25
S27
S1
S3
S5
S7
S9

Station Station

(b) Spring (MAM) (d) Autumn (SON)

39 39
36 36
33 33
Temperature (°C)
Temperature (°C)

30 30
27 27
24 24
21 21
18
18 15
15 12
12 9
9 6
S11
S13
S15
S17
S19
S21
S23
S25
S27
S1
S3
S5
S7
S9

6
S1
S3
S5
S7
S9
S11
S13
S15
S17
S19
S21
S23
S25
S27

Station
Station

Fig. 2. The temperature variability in Saudi Arabia obtained from the observed station data
for the (a) Winter (b) Spring (C) Summer, and (d) Autumn seasons averaged over
1978-2010.

Figure 4 shows that the interannual variability of the observed

seasonal temperature is apparent in both the warm (positive) and cold
(negative) phases. Since the late 1990s, all seasons have shown a
warming phase over Saudi Arabia, although four cold phases were
observed during the winter season. This could be linked with the increase
in temperature over the study region due to global warming. The NCEP
data captured well the interannual variability in almost all seasons.
Importantly, the NCEP data clearly identifies the warm phase from the
late 1990s. During the winter season, the correlation between the
observed and the NCEP data is 0.94, which is statistically significant at
the 95% level according to the Student’s t-test.
 Temperature Variability Over Saudi Arabia and its Association with … 93
(a) Winter (DJF) (c) Summer (JJA)

(b) Spring (MAM) (d) Autumn (SON)

Fig. 3. The Coefficient of Variation (CV in %) obtained from the NCEP mean temperature
in and around Saudi Arabia for the (a) Winter, (b) Spring, (c) Summer and (d)
Autumn seasons, averaged over 1978-2010.

According to the One Sigma standard deviation (0.97°C) during the

winter season, the observed dataset identified ten extreme temperature
years (1983, 1989, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1999, 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2010)
over the country (Fig. 5a). It is interesting to note that the years 1983,
1989, 1992 and 1993 are the cold years, according to the One Sigma
standard deviation criterion; however, since 1994 all the extreme years
are found to be extremely hot, relative to the ‘normal’ years. The year
2010 is the warmest (2.22°C w.r.t. 1978-2010 average reference period)
among all the extreme years, whereas 1983 is the coldest (-2.25°C w.r.t.
94 Mansour Almazroui

1978-2010 average reference period) among all the cold years. It was
also noted that after 1995, the temperature shows an increasing trend
during the winter season. The NCEP data also capture the extreme years
quite well but with some underestimation of temperature compared to the
observed data.
During the spring season, the correlation between the two datasets
is found to be 0.83, which is statistically significant at the 95% level (Fig.
4b). According to the One Sigma standard deviation criterion (0.86°C),
the observed data identified nine extreme temperature years (1982, 1983,
1992, 1997, 2001, 2003, 2007, 2008 and 2010) in Saudi Arabia. Except
for the year 1982, all the extreme years are captured well by the NCEP
data. In the spring season, 1983 is the extreme coldest year (-1.84°C
w.r.t. 1978-2010 average reference period), whereas 2010 is the extreme
warmest year (1.95°C w.r.t. 1978-2010 average reference period).
The correlation between the observed and the NCEP data is 0.88
during the summer season, which is statistically significant at the 95%
level (Fig. 4c). According to the One Sigma standard deviation criterion
(0.95°C), the observed data identified nine extreme temperature years
(1978, 1982, 1984, 1998, 2000, 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2010) in Saudi
Arabia. Except for the years 1978, 1982, 1984, 1998 and 2009, all the
extreme years were captured well by the NCEP data. In the summer
season, 1984 is the extreme coldest year (-1.81°C) whereas 2010 is the
extreme warmest year (2.1°C).
During the autumn season, the correlation between the two datasets
is 0.89, which is 95% statistically significant (Fig. 4d). According to the
One Sigma standard deviation criterion (0.75°C), the observed data
identified eleven extreme temperature years (1978, 1981, 1982, 1983,
1984, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2007, 2009 and 2010) in Saudi Arabia. All of
the extreme years are captured well by the NCEP data, with some
underestimated values compared to the observed data. In the autumn
season, 1978 is the extreme coldest year (-1.54°C), whereas 2010 is the
extreme warmest year (1.6°C). Overall, the results show that 2010 was
the warmest year in Saudi Arabia during the study period, observed
during all four seasons.
 Temperature Variability Over Saudi Arabia and its Association with … 95
(a) Winter (DJF) (c) Summer (JJA)

2 2 2
2
NCEP
NCEP NCEP 22 2
2
NCEP
NCEP
NCEP
NCEP NCEP
Temperature (°C)

(°C)
(°C)

Temperature (°C)
Temperature (°C)

Temperature(°C)
Station Station
Temperature(°C)

Temperature (°C)
StationStation Station
Station
Station Station
1 1 1
1 11 1
1

Temperature
Temperature

0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
-1 -1 -1 -1
-1 -1 -1 -1
-2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 -2 -2
19801980198519851990199019951995200020002005200520102010 19801980198519851990
19901995
19952000
20002005
20052010
2010
1980 1980
1985 19851990 1990
1995Years
2000 2000
1995 2005 2005
2010 2010 1980 19801985 1985
1990 1990
1995 1995
Years 2000 2000
2005 2005
2010 2010
Years Years
YearsYears YearsYears
(b) Spring (MAM) (d) Autumn (SON)
2 2 NCEP NCEP 2 2 NCEP
NCEP
(°C)

Temperature (°C)
Temperature (°C)

(°C)
2 2 NCEP NCEP
Station 2 2 NCEP NCEP
Station
Station Station
Temperature (°C)

(°C)
(°C)

Temperature (°C)
1 1 Station Station 1 1 StationStation
Temperature

1 1 Temperature
1
Temperature 1
Temperature

0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
-1 -1 -1 -1
-1 -1 -1 -1
-2 -2 -2 -2
-2 -2 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -2 -2 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1980 1980
1985 1985
1990 1990
Years
Years
1995 1995
2000 2000
2005 2005
2010 2010 1980 19801985 1985
Years
1990Years
1990
1995 1995
2000 2000
2005 20052010 2010
YearsYears YearsYears
Fig. 4. Area averaged mean temperature anomalies obtained from the observed and the
NCEP data for the (a) Winter, (b) Spring, (c) Summer and (d) Autumn seasons. The
anomaly is taken with respect to the reference period 1978-2010.

Temperature Climatology
The ability of the NCEP data to capture the overall temperature
profiles over Saudi Arabia encouraged us to further utilize them to obtain
the spatial distribution of the temperature climatology over the country,
which is not possible from the direct use of the observed station values.
Seasonal and Annual Temperature Climatology
The seasonal mean temperature climatology averaged over 1978-
2010 is shown in Fig. 5. The results show that the temperature in the
south-eastern region of Saudi Arabia is high, compared to the other
regions of the country. The reason for the relatively high temperatures
(reaching above 50°C and not shown in the color bar) in this south-
eastern region is due to the presence of the world’s largest sand desert,
the Rub Al-Khali (Empty Quarter).
During the winter season, the temperature distribution over the
country is in three distinct areas: the northwest is below 10°C, the center
is 10°-15°C, and the east and the western coastal areas are 15°-20°C (Fig.
5a). As the northern region of the study area is under the influence of
96 Mansour Almazroui

western disturbances originating from the Mediterranean, it is colder than

the southern region, which is under the influence of the tropics and hence
is considerably warmer in this season. During the spring season, the
temperatures increase all over the country, ranging between 20° and
35°C (Fig. 5b), climbing more quickly in the north, whilst in the summer
season, the whole country is warm, with temperatures reaching above
30°C (Fig. 5c). In the summer season, the highest temperatures are
observed in the south-eastern region, where the mean is above 35°C.
During autumn, moderate temperatures are observed over the country,
which range between 25° and 30°C, except in the northwest where they
are below 25°C (Fig. 5d). However, in the south-eastern tip of the
country, high temperatures are observed during this season.
(a) Winter (DJF) (c) Summer (JJA)

(b) Spring (MAM) (d) Autumn (SON)

Fig. 5. The spatial distribution of seasonal mean temperature (°C) climatology obtained
from the NCEP data for the (a) Winter, (b) Spring, (c) Summer, and (d) Autumn
seasons averaged over 1978-2010.
 Temperature Variability Over Saudi Arabia and its Association with … 97

Fig. 6. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature climatology (°C) obtained from
the NCEP data, averaged over 1978-2010.

The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature obtained from

the NCEP data averaged over 1978-2010 is displayed in Fig. 6.
Generally, there are two temperature zones over the country: one covers
the central-to-northwestern region, with temperature ranging between 20°
and 25°C, whilst the other is central-to-eastern and southern and western
areas, having temperatures ranging between 25° and 30°C. It is
interesting to note that the lowest temperature (<20°C) is observed in a
small part of the north-western region, whilst the highest temperature
(>35°C) is observed in two small pockets of the Rub Al-Khali area. On
the annual scale, the temperature gradient is from the southeast to the
northwest of the country.

Effects of large-scale forcings on temperatures over Saudi Arabia

This section discusses the effects of large-scale features such as
ENSO, AO and NAO on the temperature of the Saudi Arabia, obtained
for both the observed and the NCEP datasets.
Effect of the ENSO Index
The correlations between the observed mean temperatures from the
station dataset and the Niño3.4 index during different seasons are shown
in Fig. 7. Overall, a negative correlation is found between the Niño3.4
index and the observed mean seasonal temperature of the region for most
98 Mansour Almazroui

of the stations. In addition, the correlations for stations S17 and S18 are
negative and are statically significant at the 95% level, however for the
stations S25 and S26, the correlations are positive and statistically
significant at the 95% level during the winter season. During the spring
season, all the stations show a negative correlation except for S25, which
shows a weak positive correlation. The stations in northern, central
(except S13 and S14) and S18 and S20 in south-western Saudi Arabia
show strong negative correlation (95% statistically significant). In
summer, only S2, S6 and S8 show a negative statistically significant
correlation, whereas in autumn, none of the stations has a statistically
significant relationship with the Niño3.4 index.
0.80
0.60 NINO3.4 Winter Spring Summer Autumn
0.40
Correlation

0.20
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
-0.80
S10
S11
S12
S13
S14
S15
S16
S17
S18
S19
S20
S21
S22
S23
S24
S25
S26
S27
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
S6
S7
S8
S9

Fig. 7. The correlation of Niño 3.4 SSTs and the mean temperatures obtained from the
observed data for the winter, spring, summer, and autumn seasons averaged over
1978-2010.

The spatial distribution of the correlation of the Niño3.4 index with

the NCEP mean temperature for different seasons is shown in Fig. 8. The
shaded areas indicate the correlations with a 95% statistical significance
according to Student’s t-test. During the winter season, weak correlation
is found with the NCEP data over Saudi Arabia except for a small area in
the south-western region. During the spring season, the mean
temperatures over most parts of Saudi Arabia are under the influence of
the Niño3.4 region. In the summer and autumn seasons, no statistically
significant correlation is found over the country. These results are
consistent with the results obtained from the observed data as discussed
earlier (see Fig. 7).
 Temperature Variability Over Saudi Arabia and its Association with … 99
(a) Winter (DJF) (c) Summer (JJA)

(b) Spring (MAM) (d) Autumn (SON)

Fig. 8. The correlation of Niño 3.4 index and the mean temperature obtained from the
NCEP data for the (a) Winter, (b) Spring, (c) Summer, and (d) Autumn seasons
averaged over 1978-2010.

The negative correlation indicates that when there is a positive

phase (El Niño) of ENSO temperatures over Saudi Arabia tend to fall;
however, for the negative phase (La Niña) of ENSO, temperatures tend to
rise across the country. Accordingly, the spring temperatures of Saudi
Arabia are found to be affected by ENSO, which reduces the temperature
mostly from the central to the northern parts of the country.
Effects of the AO Index
The correlation between the AO index and the observed mean
temperature in different seasons for the period 1978-2010 is shown in
Fig. 9. During the winter season, all stations show a negative correlation,
except S23. In this season, all stations show strong negative correlation
with a 95% statistical significance, except for the southern stations (S22,
S23, S24, S25, S26 and S27). The highest correlation is obtained for the
100 Mansour Almazroui

northern station S2 (-0.79). In other seasons, there is no statistically

significant correlation between the AO index and the mean temperature,
except for S18 during the spring (-0.37) and the autumn (-0.35).
The correlation of the AO index with the NCEP temperature for the
period 1978–2010 is shown in Fig. 10. The shaded areas indicate the
statistically significant correlation at the 95% level according to
Student’s t-test. The AO affects the winter season mean temperature of
Saudi Arabia, except for the southern areas of the country. The negative
correlation is evident from Fig. 10 for other seasons, however no
statistically significant relationship is found except over the Red Sea
during the autumn. These results are consistent with the results obtained
from the observed data as discussed earlier.
As discussed earlier the variability in winter season temperature is
high in the northern and the central areas of the country (see Fig. 3a).
This high variability is associated with the AO, and so it could be used as
an indicator for predicting the winter mean temperature in the study
region.
0.8
AO Winter Spring Summer Autumn
0.6

0.4
Correlation

0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8
S10
S11
S12
S13
S14
S15
S16
S17
S18
S19
S20
S21
S22
S23
S24
S25
S26
S27
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
S6
S7
S8
S9

Fig. 9. The correlation of AO and the mean temperature obtained from the observed data
for the winter, spring, summer, and autumn seasons averaged over 1978-2010. (see
Fig. 12). The strong negative correlation indicates that the mean temperature during
the winter season over this region is strongly associated with AO phenomena. This
indicates that during the negative phase of AO, the temperature in the region tends
to increase, and vice versa.
 Temperature Variability Over Saudi Arabia and its Association with … 101

(a) Winter (DJF) (c) Summer (JJA)

(b) Spring (MAM) (d) Autumn (SON)

Fig. 10. The correlation of the AO index and the mean temperature obtained from the
NCEP data for (a) Winter, (b) Spring, (c) Summer, and (d) Autumn seasons
averaged over 1978-2010.

Effect of the NAO Index

The correlation between the NAO index and the observed mean
temperature for the period 1978-2010 in the four seasons is shown in Fig.
11. During the winter season, all stations show negative correlation,
except for S23 (0.11). Out of the 27 stations, 18 stations show strong
correlation (95% statistically significant). Similarly, during the other
seasons, negative correlation is found between the observed mean
temperature and the NAO index for all stations, except for S27 (0.07),
where a positive correlation is found in the autumn season. During the
spring and summer seasons, most of the stations show a statistically
significant relationship among the temperatures and NAO index,
however significant relationships are few during the autumn season. This
102 Mansour Almazroui

indicates that the mean temperature over Saudi Arabia is heavily affected
by the NAO phenomena during the winter, spring and summer seasons.
0.6
NAO Winter Spring Summer Autumn
0.4

0.2
Correlation

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
S6
S7
S8
S9
S10
S11
S12
S13
S14
S15
S16
S17
S18
S19
S20
S21
S22
S23
S24
S25
S26
S27
Fig. 11. The correlation of NAO and the mean temperature obtained from the observed data
for the winter, spring, summer, and autumn seasons averaged over 1978-2010.

The spatial distribution of the correlation between the NAO index

and the NCEP temperature over the period 1978–2010 is shown in Fig.
12. The negative correlation with 95% statistically significance is
prominent during the winter, spring and summer seasons. There is no
significant correlation over Saudi Arabia during the autumn except at the
central coast line of the Red Sea. These results are consistent with the
results obtained from the observed data (Fig. 11). The negative
correlation indicates that during the negative phase of the NAO, the
temperature over Saudi Arabia tends to increase, whilst for the positive
phase of the NAO, the mean temperature tends to decrease over the
region.
Consequently, the seasonal mean temperature of Saudi Arabia is
closely related to the variability of ENSO, the AO and the NAO. These
large-scale features show clear indication about the control of seasonal-
mean temperature over Saudi Arabia, which is quite significant in
diagnosis of the climate over the region.
 Temperature Variability Over Saudi Arabia and its Association with … 103
(a) Winter (DJF) (c) Summer (JJA)

(b) Spring (MAM) (d) Autumn (SON)

Fig. 12. The correlation of the NAO index and the mean temperature obtained from the
NCEP data for (a) Winter, (b) Spring, (c) Summer, and (d) Autumn seasons
averaged over 1978-2010.

Conclusions
The monthly, seasonal and annual temperature obtained from the
surface observations at 27 stations over Saudi Arabia and the NCEP data
are analyzed for the period 1978-2010. The effects of large-scale
forcings, specifically ENSO, AO and NAO, on the mean temperatures
over the country are also investigated. The results show that the
variability in seasonal mean temperature in northern and central Saudi
Arabia is high compared to the southern region of the country. The
temperature gradient is found to be from the south to the north of Saudi
104 Mansour Almazroui

Arabia; however the temperature variability gradient is from the northern

and central region to the southern region. During the winter and autumn
seasons, the gradient in mean temperature variability is high, compared
to the spring and summer seasons. During the summer season, the
temperature variability is low over Saudi Arabia. It is found that the high
variability in the temperature over Saudi Arabia is closely associated
with the large-scale forcings, for instance, the NAO index is strongly
related to the temperature with a 95% statistically significant negative
correlation in all seasons except autumn; however this relationship is
more prominent during the winter season. The AO phenomenon also
influences the winter season temperature over Saudi Arabia, whereas
ENSO events affect the spring temperature. The strong and positive
phase of El Niño has a strong negative correlation with the temperature
of Saudi Arabia; it reduces temperatures across this region. With the
positive (negative) phase of AO, the temperature of Saudi Arabia tends to
decrease (increase). Similarly, during the negative phase of NAO, the
temperature over Saudi Arabia tends to increase, and vice versa. As a
subsequent study, this analysis may be extended to the utilization of
global and regional climate model outputs, in the diagnosis as well as the
projection of temperature effects in this region, which could result in
significant socio-economic benefits.
Acknowledgements
Deanship of Scientific Research, King Abdulaziz University is
acknowledged for funding this project under the grant no. (305/428).
The author also acknowledges the Presidency of Meteorology and
Environment (PME) of Saudi Arabia for providing surface observation
data, and NOAA for providing the ENSO, AO, and NAO data through its
website.

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 ‫… ‪Temperature Variability Over Saudi Arabia and its Association with‬‬ ‫‪107‬‬

‫تغير درجات الح اررة على المملكة العربية السعودية وعالقتها‬

‫بمؤشرات المناخ العالمية‬

‫منصور المزروعي‬
‫مركز التميز ألبحاث التغير المناخي‪ ،‬قسم األرصاد‪،‬‬
‫كلية األرصاد والبيئة وزراعة المناطق الجافة‬
‫جامعة الملك عبدالعزيز‪ ،‬جدة – المملكة العربية السعودية‬
‫‪mansour@kau.edu.sa‬‬

‫المستخلص‪ .‬يهتم هذا البحث بدراسة تأثير القوى الواسعة النطاق على‬
‫تغيررر وتبررايج درجررات الحر اررة المتوسررطة فرري المملكررة العربيررة السررعودية‬
‫باس ررتخدام البيان ررات المقاس ررة وك ررذلك البيان ررات الش رربكية للمرك ررز ال رردولي‬
‫للتنبررؤ البيئرري (‪ )NCEP‬خررالل الةت ررة مررج ‪0282-8791‬م‪ .‬وقررد بينررت‬
‫دراسة التغيرات البيج سنوية لدرجة الح اررة المتوسرطة وجرود ارتةرا فري‬
‫درج ررة الحر ر اررة من ررذ نهاي ررة تس ررعينات الق رررج الماض رري متبع ررة ف رري ذل ررك‬
‫التسخيج العالمي‪ .‬وباإلضافة إلى ذلك‪ ،‬فقد وجرد أج التغيررات الةصرلية‬
‫فر رري درجر ررة الح ر ر اررة عالير ررة فر رري المنر رراطق الشر ررمالية والوسر ررطى للمملكر ررة‬
‫بالمقارنرة مرا المنطقرة الجنوبيرة‪ ،‬وعرالوة علرى ذلرك فراج أعلرى قريم لهررذا‬
‫التبررايج ترهررر فرري فصررل الشررتا (~ ‪ )٪02‬بينمررا اقررل قرريم ترهررر فرري‬
‫(~ ‪ .)٪0‬وقررد أوضررحت الد ارسررة أج هررذا التبررايج الشررديد فرري‬ ‫الصرري‬
‫درجة الح اررة فوق المملكة العربية السعودية مرتبط بشكل كبير برراهرة‬
‫الشر ررمال األطلسر رري (‪ )NAO‬بنسر رربة ت ر ررابط عكسر رري ذات داللر ررة‬ ‫تذبر ررذ‬
‫إحص ررائية تص ررل إل ررى ‪ ٪79‬لجمي ررا الةص ررول باس ررتثنا فص ررل الخرير ر‬
‫وتكوج أكثر وضوحا خرالل فصرل الشرتا ‪ .‬إضرافة إلرى ذلرك فرإج درجرة‬
‫الشرمالي (‪،)AO‬‬ ‫ح اررة فصل الشتا تتأثر أيضا بمالمر ذبذبرة القطر‬
‫‪108‬‬ ‫‪Mansour Almazroui‬‬

‫فري حرريج تترأثر درجررة حر اررة المملكررة فري فصررل الربيرا بررراهرة النوسرراج‬
‫الجنرروبي (‪ .)ENSO‬ويخلررص هررذا البحررث إلررى أج الطررور السررلبي لكررل‬
‫الش ر ررمالي (‪،)AO‬‬ ‫م ر ررج النوس ر رراج الجن ر رروبي (‪ ،)ENSO‬وذبذب ر ررة القطر ر ر‬
‫دو ار رئيس ر ررا ف ر رري ارتة ر ررا‬ ‫الش ر ررمال األطلس ر رري (‪ )NAO‬تلعر ر ر‬ ‫وتذب ر ررذ‬
‫درجات الح اررة على المملكة العربية السعودية‪.‬‬