POLL REPORT:

SPECIAL REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

FOR FLORIDA HD-24

February 15, 2023

P: (929) 388-6585
E: info@victory-insights.com
W: victory-insights.com
: @VictoryPolling

Poll conducted February 13-14, 2023 via IVR and

text message among likely Republican Primary voters
in FL HD-24.

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Table of Contents
1 Cover Sheet
2 Executive Summary
3 Special Republican Primary Election
4 Favorability and Name ID
5 Changes Since Last Month
6 Tracking Trends: 2024 Presidential Primary
7 Contact Information

Executive Summary
After the resignation of State Representative Joe Harding in December of 2022 and
the subsequent announcement of a special election to fill his seat, things have heated up
in the Ocala area. Five Republicans – Justin Albright, Ryan Chamberlin, Jose Juarez,
Stephen Pyles, and Charlie Stone – are vying for the GOP nomination on March 7 th, and
realistically, whoever wins the Republican Primary will become the area’s next
representative.
Last month, Victory Insights conducted a poll in order to map the terrain of the race.
What we found was that the race was wide open, with 68% of voters undecided about who
to vote for. Our new poll, just one month later, has discovered that the race has begun to
take shape. Chamberlin, Stone, and Juarez have all successfully raised both their Total
Name ID and their share of the vote. Although it’s close, our simulations show Chamberlin
winning a majority of the time – if the election were held today. Stone and Juarez also
have reasonable chances (21% and 6% respectively), while Albright and Pyles lag behind.
There are a number of interesting trends to take note of In the last month, Stone’s
Total Name ID has shot up, but much of that has been negative. Meanwhile, Chamberlin
and Juarez have been able to raise their Name IDs and vote shares without eliciting such a
rise in negative opinions. Additionally, Albright has fallen from holding a narrow lead to
holding a distant fourth place. Meanwhile, Pyles’ numbers have barely budged, and he
ranks last in practically every metric.
On a different note, the Trump-DeSantis rivalry is alive and well in HD-24. Although
a majority of Ocala Republicans like both figures, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is liked by
a higher proportion of the electorate and disliked by a lower proportion of the electorate
than former President Trump. Additionally, DeSantis enjoys an 11-point lead over Trump
for the 2024 GOP nomination. The issue remains a tricky one for candidates to navigate.
With Election Day less than a month away, many things have become clear, but
there remain many questions to be answered. Things can change quickly in the world of
politics, and we’ll be tracking them every step of the way.
Read on to learn more.

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Special Republican Primary Election Ballot

Chamberlin (25%), Stone (20%), and Juarez (17%) make up the top tier of candidates, in
that order. Albright lags behind with 6.2% of the vote, while Pyles comes in last with 2.9%.
However, the Undecided option is actually the most popular, with 28% of voters falling in
this category. No one candidate is the clear favorite at this time, but what is clear is that
Chamberlin, Stone, and Juarez have started to rise to the top.
35.0%

30.0% 28.4%

24.8%
25.0%

20.4%
20.0%
17.4%

15.0%

10.0%
6.2%
5.0%
2.9%

0.0%
Undecided Chamberlin Stone Juarez Albright Pyles

10KSim: Election Simulation Results

If the election were held today, Juarez
6%
Chamberlin would have the best chance
of victory, winning 73% of the elections
simulated with our proprietary election Stone
simulation software, 10KSim. However, 21%

Stone wins in about 1 in every 5

simulations, and even Juarez comes out
on top 6% of the time. Neither Albright
nor Pyles won any of the 10,000
simulations. However, it’s worth noting
that Election Day is nearly a month away,
and these probabilities will certainly
Chamberlin
change before all is said and done. 73%

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Candidate Favorability
Stone leads the way in terms of favorability, with 31% of the electorate holding a positive
opinion of him. However, 1 in 4 voters hold a negative opinion of him, which is nearly twice
as high as any of his competitors. Chamberlin trails Stone by only 4% in terms of
favorability, while enjoying far lower negatives. Juarez enjoys 25% favorability, as well as
the lowest negatives out of the entire pack, with only 5%. Albright and Pyles again lag
behind the frontrunners, with positives in the low double-digits and negatives in the high
single-digits.

Chamberlin 27% 60% 13%

Stone 31% 44% 25%

Juarez 25% 69% 5%

Albright 13% 81% 6%

Pyles 10% 82% 7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Positive Neutral/No Opinion Negative

Total Name ID
Stone is the best-known candidate in the race (56%), but this is largely due to those who
hold negative opinions of him. Chamberlin (40%) is a distant second, while Juarez (31%) is
a distant third. Again, Albright (19%) and Pyles (17%) lag behind the top three.
70%

60% 56%

50%
40%
40%
31%
30%

19%
20% 17%

10%

0%
Chamberlin Stone Juarez Albright Pyles

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Ballot Changes Since Last Month

Since our January poll conducted just over a month ago, the number of undecided voters
has dropped significantly (-39%). Meanwhile, Chamberlin (+14%), Stone (+18%), and
Juarez (+15%) have made sizeable double-digit gains, which explains their newfound
frontrunner status. Albright, who narrowly led our last poll (albeit with less than 15% of the
vote) is the only candidate whose vote share has dropped (-8%), while Pyles’ vote share
has remained relatively unchanged (+1%).
Undecided Chamberlin Stone Juarez Albright Pyles
30%
+18%
20% +14% +15%

10%
+1%
0%

-10%
-8%
-20%

-30%

-40%
-39%
-50%

Total Name ID Changes Since Last Month

Sticking with the trends identified throughout this poll, Albright (-1%) and Pyles (+5%) have
not made significant changes in terms of Total Name ID since our last poll. However,
Chamberlin (+23%), Stone (+35%), and Juarez (+21%) have all rapidly built their Total
Name IDs. Keep in mind, however, that a rising Total Name ID isn’t inherently good; for
instance, Stone’s negatives have quintupled in the past month alone.
Chamberlin Stone Juarez Albright Pyles
50%

40%
+35%

30%
+23%
+21%
20%

10%
+5%

0%
-1%
-10%

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2024 Presidential Primary Ballot: Trump vs. DeSantis

A common thread being followed throughout GOP politics in Florida (and across the nation)
is the growing rivalry between Trump and DeSantis. In HD-24, DeSantis has gained the
edge, beating Trump 45% to 24%, although 21% of voters remain undecided.
60.0%

50.0%
45.0%

40.0%
34.2%

30.0%

20.8%
20.0%

10.0%

0.0%
DeSantis Trump Undecided

Candidate Favorability: Trump vs. DeSantis

Although both Trump and DeSantis are generally liked by HD-24 Republicans, DeSantis
has both higher positives and lower negatives than Trump. Making positive comments
about DeSantis is less risky than making positive comments about Trump, as only 8% of
the electorate dislikes DeSantis, compared to 20% for Trump. In the same vein, making
positive comments about DeSantis is likely to win you more friends in HD-24, as 86% of
voters have a positive opinion of DeSantis, compared to only 61% for Trump.

DeSantis 86% 6% 8%

Trump 61% 19% 20%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Positive Neutral/No Opinion Negative

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@VictoryPolling
info@victory-insights.com
victory-insights.com
(929) 388-6585

www.victory-insights.com