Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-019-09327-1

Analysis of Influential Factors of Violent Crimes

and Building a Spatial Cluster in South Korea

Dae Woong Lee 1 & Da Sol Lee 1

Received: 25 September 2018 / Accepted: 30 September 2019/

# Springer Nature B.V. 2019

Abstract
This study analyzed the spatial distribution of violent crime (murder, robbery, rape,
assault, and larceny) in Korea and the relationship between violent crime and the
governance, administrative, physical, and socio-economic factors of local communities.
The occurrence of violent crime was approached from the perspective of the commu-
nity, not from a personal perspective, based on the theoretical ecological perspective. In
addition, an analysis model (spatial lag model) designed to analyze spillover effect
between neighboring communities. For the analysis, this study used the data of 56 sub-
local governments of Seoul Metropolitan City and Gyeonggi Province in 2015.
The analysis results are as follows: First, this study identified five major violent crime
occurrence situations through descriptive statistical analysis. Second, the hot-spot and
cold-spot of violent crime were derived through exploratory spatial analysis (Moran's I,
LISA). Third, this study derived the relationship between the incidence of violent crime
and the governance, administrative, physical, and socioeconomic factors of the com-
munity through spatial regression analysis based on the spatial lag model. Specifically,
the valid factors influenced on the five major violent as follows: variables of local
security council in space effect and governance; variables of crime monitoring facilities
and crime agency in administrative capacity; variables of detrimental facilities density
in physical environment; variables of race heterogeneity and family
disorganization(divorce rate) in socio-economic environments. This study presented
policy implications based on the above analysis results.

Keywords Five Major Violent Crimes . Ecological Perspectives . CPTED . Spatial Effect .
Spatial Lag Model

* Dae Woong Lee

leedw1011@naver.com

Da Sol Lee
leewws@naver.com

Extended author information available on the last page of the article

 D. W. Lee, D. S. Lee

Introduction

Korean society achieved economic growth in a very brief period, an achievement that is
known as the Miracle on the Han River. However, this compressive industrialization
forced society to face a new risk it had never experienced before. As a very special risk
society (Beck 2008), Korean society faces a variety of complex daily risks that could
cause various problems. Among them, an increase in violent crime (murder, robbery,
rape, assault, and larceny) is one of the major social problems. In 2016, the number of
the five major violent crimes in Korea was 794.4 cases per 100,000 of population. It
increased by 17% from 676.6 cases in 2007. Qualitatively, violent crimes have become
cruel, in terms of criminal type and technique, and they threaten Korean society.
To prevent and respond to crimes, it is first necessary to reveal the factors that trigger
crimes and then design policy and strategy based on each factor. Academically,
empirical analysis and review of various factors influencing crime have been conduct-
ed. Factor analysis, especially, which had been limited to personal (psychological and
physical) factors of assailants has been expanded to biological, structural, and environ-
mental factors. From these, the notion of space, as emphasized in geography, emerges
as a critical factor. According to Tobler (1970), the First Law of Geography is that
everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant
things. This is explained by spatial autocorrelation, according to which social and
natural phenomena are influenced by each other in space. In other words, the more
objects in a space are adjacent or similar, the more interdependence and interaction
there is (Anselin and Bera 1998). That is, crimes of a specific local government can be
influenced by crimes of adjacent local governments.
Therefore, a number of recent studies made use of a spatial regression model to
examine the spatial autocorrelation of crime and statistical effects of spatial factors (de
Oliveira et al. 2017, Takagi et al. 2012; Tita et al. 2010). Furthermore, based on the
analysis result, cooperation between local governments, when crime clusters appear, is
achieved for criminal prevention and response. However, in South Korea, most studies
do not reflect the space factor in analyzing the causes of crime. In the condition where a
local community is set as a unit of analysis, a crime can have spatial autocorrelation,
meaning that nearby communities may have similar characteristics. Especially in
Korea, due to its narrow area, geographical proximity between communities is very
high. Thus, the incidence and form of violent crime also have a high similarity.
Therefore, there is a greater need for criminal research that reflects the ‘space’ factor.
The purpose of this study is to reveal the relationship between the occurrence of
violent crime and local community factors in Korea. This study analyzed the spatial
distribution of violent crime in Korea and the relationship between violent crime and
the governance, administrative, physical, and socio-economic factors of local commu-
nities. In addition, it attempts to find crime clustering and spill-over phenomena in
neighboring local communities by examining spatial autocorrelation and analyzing a
spatial regression model. Specifically, the purpose of this study is to: the actual
conditions of five major violent crimes in local metropolitan local communities are
first analyzed. Second, spatial autocorrelation of the five major violent crimes in
metropolitan local communities is examined, and geographical distribution is
determined in exploratory spatial analysis. In this way, clusters of the five major
violent crimes are revealed. Third, spatial regression analysis with spatial factors is
Analysis of Influential Factors of Violent Crimes and Building a...

conducted, to determine the factors of the five major violent crimes. Fourth, in the
prevention and response to crime, the importance of cooperation and network among
local governments and policymaking are announced. As such, this study aims to
contribute to the expansion of criminal research and accumulation of empirical
evidence by analyzing the relationship between the spatial distribution and factors of
violent crime occurrence in Korea.

Theoretical Background

Theories of the Causes of Crimes

With the changing times, criminology has maintained interdisciplinary characteristics

and has been developed through constant exchange with other disciplines. Research on
the causal relationship between the macroscopic factor of the local community, which is
emphasized in this study, and crime has been developed based on an ecological
perspective. After the pioneering studies of Guerry (1833) and Quetelet (1835), in
the early twentieth century, the perspective of social ecology emerged in the School of
Chicago, and crimes were associated with structural and spatial characteristics of local
communities. Since then, the ecological perspective has been developed as the main
paradigm of modern criminology, changing from explanations based on types of people
to ones that focus on the spatial characteristics of crimes (Stark 1987). As a result, the
direction of criminal policy has moved from post-processing, reformation, and treat-
ment of criminals to prevention and the operation and control of structural character-
istics (social structural and physical aspects) in local communities.
Theories included in the modern ecological perspective include social disorganiza-
tion theory, crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED), situation theory,
and broken windows theory. These theories look at the influence of a variety of
structural and environmental factors on the differential distribution of crimes and
criminal behavior decisions of potential criminals on the basis of the spatial character-
istics of crimes. More specifically, Shaw and Mckay, representative researchers of
social disorganization theory, have argued that a local community with a high crime
rate has the features of social disorganization. As two casualties that connect criminal
behavior and social and environmental characteristics, they suggest the absence of
social control and unconventional role modeling. First, the absence of social control
means a local community’s loss of control of potential lawbreakers who emerge from
social disorganization caused by population changes and increased population mobility
caused by economic deprivation. In other words, a region with a high population
mobility rate has population instability and heterogeneity, making it difficult to inte-
grate social communities in the region. On balance, this leads to social disorganization
and the local government’s loss of control. Second, unconventional role modeling
means that weakening norms of social value and a loss of control of the local
community result in the creation of law violation role modeling, rather than legal role
modeling, which is recognized as part of the local community.
Crime prevention theory focuses on the influence of spatial factors on criminal
behavior and victims. Situational factors of a specific place where crimes occur
frequently are analyzed, to determine the temporal and spatial factors and patterns of
 D. W. Lee, D. S. Lee

crimes. Based on the analysis result, a preventive environment for reducing criminal
opportunity is designed and managed. This theory was expanded based on the four
principles of defensible space established by Newman (1972) as preventive spatial
factors to deter crimes: territorial control, natural surveillance, image, and milieu. With
his Crime Prevention through Environmental Design (four basic strategies: surveillance
reinforcement, regulation of outsiders’ behavior, enlightenment concerning crime pre-
vention, and support of crime prevention activity by residents), Jeffery (1971) sug-
gested the necessity of controlling an environment prior to crimes occurring, in order to
prevent them.
Situation theory includes routine activity theory (Cohen and Felson 1979), rational
choice theory (Clarke and Cornish 1985), and crime pattern theory (Brantingham and
Brantingham 1993). Situation theory focuses on improvements to the general
environment and the direct management, design, and operation of an environment
with criminal possibility, to reduce the opportunity for crime. In routine activity theory,
crime is judged to occur within the opportunity structure of daily activity; therefore,
lifestyles should be changed to reduce criminal opportunity. Cohen and Felson (1979)
suggested that three elements must be present for a crime to occur: a motivated
offender, a suitable victim or target, and the absence of a capable guardian. They
revealed that when the three elements are present in the same space and time, the crime
rate increases.
Based on the experimental results of Zimbardo (1969), who revealed that a disor-
ganized environment leads to crime, psychologically, Wilson and Kelling (1982)
suggested the broken window theory. They argued that physical and social chaos
triggers more fear of crimes and weakens the unofficial social control of the local
community. They explain that the absence of environmental maintenance and mild
violations of order lead to serious offenses. In their theory, they argue that it is
necessary to improve the physical environment of a local community and establish a
governance system of police and citizens to support crime prevention. Improvement of
the physical environment refers to blocking potential criminals’ access by enhancing
physical facilities, so as to monitor disorderly acts, and strengthening the the local
community.

Review of Literature

The purpose of this study is to draw the spatial distribution of the five major violent
crimes and the causes of these crimes within the dimensions of a local unit. In this
section, relevant previous studies are reviewed, and the originality of this study is
suggested.
In multiple relevant studies, the causes of the five major violent crimes were
analyzed within the dimensions of a local unit. In the analysis, the causes of the crimes
were classified into physical environment, socio-economic factors, and administrative
policies of the local community. Based on the theory of CPTED, situation theory, and
broken window theory, it was found that the physical environmental design of a local
community significantly influenced crimes. More specifically, the number of harmful
facilities in a local community, the rate of urban parks, the rate of school land, and the
characteristics of the residential environment significantly influenced the five major
crimes (Tseloni et al. 2004; Cheong et al. 2013).
Analysis of Influential Factors of Violent Crimes and Building a...

Based on social disorganization theory and routine activity theory, it was found that
socio-economic variables significantly influenced crimes. For example, such variables
as population density, level of the local economy, vulnerable social groups, average
age, household income, housing instability, and neighborly interaction were analyzed to
be influential (Morenoff et al. 2001; Kubrin and Weitzer 2003; Browning et al. 2004;
Tseloni et al. 2004; Cheong et al. 2013). The lower the population density and the more
interaction and collective efficiency there was in a local community, the lower the crime
rates were; whereas, the lower the economic level and the higher the level of residential
instability, the higher the crime rates were (Morenoff et al. 2001; Browning et al. 2004;
Park 2011).
Administrative and policy factors of the local community mean official intervention
of the local government or public organizations, to prevent crimes caused by social
disorder. Accordingly, previous studies included the efforts of local governments, such
as the crime budget rate within the total budget of the local government, the rate of
public officials in charge of crime, crime prevention facilities in variables (Sang-Weon
2006; Kim et al. 2006).
On the other hand, from an analysis perspective, it is necessary to create a model that
considers space. Spatial data created based on administrative districts include their own
information and geographical space information (Doreian 1980, 1981). However, many
empirical studies assume that generalized linear models for spatial data analysis include
random data in a space and fail to factor in space in the data (Doreian 1980, Doreian
1981). More specifically, generalized linear regression analysis is based on the ordinary
least square and has the assumption of spatial independence. Therefore, if the assump-
tion is rejected and there is spatial autocorrelation, standard error can become exagger-
ated and biased. On balance, it is highly likely that an inaccurate analysis result will
result.
In the review of previous studies, the factors influencing crime rates of local
governments were established. Humans maintain tangible and intangible interaction
in a space. There is little research on spatial autocorrelation and spatial effect according
to how crime in one space can influence crime in another place through the interaction
of spatial entities. In addition, the spatial mismatch between spatial phenomena to be
analyzed and the spatial unit requires a regression model reflecting the space. If
neighboring people of similar living zones are divided into different districts by an
administrative district system, spatial autocorrelation can occur when an administrative
district is set as the analysis unit (Miron 1984; Griffith 1996; Anselin and Bera 1998).
This is because the data collected in the space fail to reflect actual spatial. Therefore, to
complement this point, a spatial regression model was estimated to analyze the spatial
effect of adjacent local communities.

Research Design, Methods, and Data

Analysis Model

The purpose of this study is to reveal the occurrence factors of the five major violent
crimes within the dimension of a local unit based on the spatial effect. To achieve this,
an exploratory spatial analysis was first conducted to establish the occurrence
 D. W. Lee, D. S. Lee

distribution of the five major violent crimes in Korea, as well as hot spots with high
crime rates and cold spots with low crime rates. Second, the spatial autocorrelation of
the five major violent crimes in Korea were examined. Third, spatial regression analysis
was conducted to determine the spatial effect and criminal determinants. The analysis
model for these discussions is provided as a diagram. Fig. 1 illustrates the analysis
model.

Operational Definitions and Variables

The analysis variables of this study are presented in Table 1. The dependent variable is
the crime rate of the five major crimes per 100,000 of the population in each local
community, as of 2015. The five crimes are murder, robbery, rape, assault, and larceny.
Independent variables include spatial effect, governance capacity, administrative ca-
pacity, physical environment, and socio-economic factors. More specifically, indepen-
dent variables are discussed as follows:
First, the spatial effect is divided into spatial lag variables and spatial error variables.
If a dependent variable has spatial autocorrelation, a dependent variable in a specific

Fig. 1 Conceptual analysis model

Table 1 Measurement variables

Division Variables Measurement Index

Dependent Crime Rates of Five Major Violent Crimes Crime rates of five major violent crimes per 100,000 of population
Variable
Independent Spatial Effect Spatial lag variable ρ(Rho)
Variable Spatial error variable λ(Lambda)
Governance capacity Local security council 1 if Local security council exists; 0 otherwise
Administrative Crime monitoring facilities Number of CCTVs per 100,000 of population
capacity Crime-related budget (Crime budget / Total budget) × 100
Crime Agency Number of police officials per 100,000 of population
Physical capacity Harmful facilities Harmful facilities per 1km2 (Entertainment spots + Lodging spots)
Analysis of Influential Factors of Violent Crimes and Building a...

Land of city parks (Land of City Parks / Total area) × 100

Land of schools (Land of Schools / Total area) × 100
Socio-economic Regional economy Local tax burden per person (won)
Factors Race heterogeneity (Number of foreigners staying / Area entire population) × 100
Divorce rate (Number of Divorces / Area entire population) × 100
Rate of low-income and one-parent families (Number of low-income and one-parent families / Area entire household) × 100
Rate of families receiving national basic living (Number of families receiving National Basic Living Security / Area entire
security household) × 100
 D. W. Lee, D. S. Lee

district has spill-over effects from its neighboring districts. This influence can be found
with the spatial lag variable (ρ, Rho). Next, the variable with spatial autocorrelation is
unable to be observed or an error occurs in the way of observing the collection of
spatial data. This influence is examined with the spatial error variable (λ, Lambda).
Second, governance capacity means the capacity of local governments, relevant
organizations, citizens, and enterprises to establish a network, cooperate with each
other, and prevent and respond to crimes. To prevent and control crimes in local
communities, those concerned, as well as local governments, should share human
and physical resources for cooperation, rather than acting independently. Thus,
Governance, based on the cooperation and network of members of various communi-
ties, complements the limits of official administrative capacity and environment.
Preventing and responding to a variety of crimes is exceeding the capacity of official
institutions. Therefore, it is necessary to supplement the limits through governance that
includes a variety of stakeholders in the community. To measure a local community’s
governance capacity for crimes, this study examines whether or not to execute a local
security council as a variable. A local security council is a joint private-public coop-
eration organization established to discuss and determine policing issues of local
governments, police agencies, and stakeholders, including citizens. That is, establishing
a horizontal network and creating a partnership. Based on private-public cooperation,
policy is determined. Accordingly, a local security council is an index to show how a
local government, mayor, and civil society cooperate to solve crime issues in the local
community.
Third, administrative capacity means the local government’s public capacity to
prevent and respond to crimes in local communities. According to CPTED, crimes
can be prevented through the direct control of environments before a crime is commit-
ted. More specifically, the theory suggests four basic strategies for controlling an
environment, including surveillance reinforcement, regulation of outsiders’ behavior,
the enlightenment of crime prevention, and support of crime prevention activity by
residents. Establishing a monitoring system is effective at enhancing monitoring and
regulating outsider intrusion or behaviors. In addition, strengthening of administrative
management capabilities, such as establishing a monitoring system, has the effect of
strengthening surveillance and regulating the intrusion or behavior of outsiders (Kim
et al. 2006). This study therefore uses the number of CCTVs installed in a local
community to measure crime monitoring facilities as an administrative capacity. A
local government’s crime budget and its rate of human resources for crimes are
represented as its public will and effort to solve crimes in local communities.
Therefore, this study uses as administrative capacity the rate of the crime budget within
the total budget of a local government and, as crime agency, the number of police
officials per 100,000 of the population in the local government.
Fourth, physical environment refers to physical buildings present in the geo-
graphical space of a local community. For instance, a harmful facility that is a space
with a high likelihood of crime should not be installed within a certain distance of a
school. Many previous studies revealed that a greater number of harmful facilities
increased crimes (Kim et al. 2006). Accordingly, this study uses as the environ-
mental factor increasing the possibility of crimes the number of harmful facilities (enter-
tainment spots and lodging spots) per 1 km2 in a local government. Unlike harmful
facilities, public places like parks and schools are naturally monitored by their users,
Analysis of Influential Factors of Violent Crimes and Building a...

which is likely to lower the number of crimes. This study therefore makes use of the rate of
park and school land for a total area.
Fifth, socio-economic factors refer to the organizational features and economic level
of residents in a local community. A socio-economic environment is closely related to
crime rates in local communities; if there are weak relations and solidarity of citizens,
such as a variety of population structures or a high divorce rate, it is possible to lose
unofficial control of potential law violators in a local community (Morenoff et al. 2001;
Tseloni et al. 2004). In particular, race heterogeneity and divorce rates eventually lead
to a decline in the social capital of the community, as shown in Takagi et al. (2012), and
social capital needs to be further discussed because there is a strong relationship
between crime rates. If the economic level is low, social control is weakened and an
individual’s crime motivation fails to be suppressed. Shaw and McKay (1972) analyzed
crime rates of Chicago in the US. As a result, crime rates of districts where there are
many low-class residents were higher than those of rich districts. This study therefore
uses as socio-economic factors the regional economy, race heterogeneity, divorce rate,
rates of low-income and one-parent families, and rate of families receiving national
basic living security. More specifically, the regional economy refers to the local tax rate
per person; race heterogeneity represents the rate of foreigners within the population of
a local government; divorce rate refers to the rate of divorced families per total families
of a local government; and low-income and one-parent families and families receiving
national basic living security mean the rate of low-income and one-parent families and
the rate of families receiving national basic living security per total families of a local
government, respectively.

Analytical Method and Data Collection

The analysis was conducted in three steps. In the first step, descriptive statistics were
used to calculate the rates of the five major crimes per 100,000 of the population in a
metropolitan local government; and in the top 10 local governments and bottom 10
local governments. In the second step, the exploratory spatial analysis was conducted to
perform Moran’s I test and a Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) test. In
Moran’s I test, whether a specific variable is intensively and spatially distributed or
randomly distributed in all study regions is presented as a single value. Accordingly, if
a similar value is shown in all study regions, it means positive spatial autocorrelation; if
a different value appears, it means negative spatial autocorrelation. Moran’s I test has a
limitation in terms of its failure to determine local spatial autocorrelation. For this
reason, this study performs both the Moran’s I test and LISA test. The LISA test,
especially, can be used to draw hot spots and exceptional spots for crime. This study
therefore examines the overall spatial autocorrelation of the five major crimes in
metropolitan areas through Moran’s I test and finds hot spots and exceptional spots
of the five major crimes using the LISA test. In the third step, an analysis model is
estimated, to conduct an analysis. A linear regression analysis is based on the ordinary
least square and has the assumption of spatial independence. Given that there is spatial
autocorrelation, the assumption of the spatial independence of observed objects and
errors is violated. In this condition, if a general linear regression analysis is conducted, a
standard error becomes exaggerated and biased and, consequently, an inaccurate
analysis result can emerge.
 D. W. Lee, D. S. Lee

Therefore, to judge whether the spatial lag model and spatial error model
should be used as the spatial regression model in place of a linear regression
model (OLS), an analysis model estimation and test were conducted. In the spatial
lag model, the spatial lag variable as the average weight of neighboring local
communities was added to control the influence of neighboring regions on an
observed value. If an error has spatial autocorrelation, it indicates a ripple effect
made by a variable featuring spatial autocorrelation, without consideration of an
explanatory variable. In this case, the spatial error model should be applied (Lee
et al. 2013). To select the most appropriate regression model, the Lagrange
Multiplier (LM) test should be conducted. If the statistical values of LM-Lag
and LM-Error in the test are significant, the null hypothesis for the spatial
independence of a dependent variable and error term is rejected. In other words,
if an LM-Lag value is significant, the spatial lag model is applied; if an LM-Error
value is significant, the spatial error model is used (Lee et al. 2013).
The data for analysis are presented as follows: For rates of the five major
crimes as a dependent variable, Seoul Open Data Plaza (data.seoul.go.kr) and
2015 Police Crime Statistics were used. The rates of the five major crimes in
Yeoncheon-gun, Gapyeong-gun, and Yangpyeong-gun were missed. Therefore,
data were collected through an open request at the Open Information Portal
(www.open.go.kr). In terms of where a local security council is held as
governance capacity, the data of community policy conferences found on the
websites of 56 local governments in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do were used.
Regarding administrative capacity or crime-monitoring facilities (installation of
CCTVs per 100,000 of the population) and budget related to crimes and crime
agency, data from the Seoul Open Data Plaza (data.seoul.go.kr) and Gyeonggi
Data Dream (data.gg.go.kr) were used. Regarding physical environment factors or
the density of harmful facilities (number of harmful facilities per 1 km2 and rates
of urban park and school lands for a total area, data from the Seoul Open Data
Plaza (data.seoul.go.kr) and KOSIS National Statistics Portal (kosis.kr) were used.
With respect to socio-economic factors or per-person tax rates as regional econ-
omy, data on the market price by district and lot-tax collection performance in the
2016 Local Tax Yearbook were used. Regarding the number of foreigners, divorce
cases caused by divorce rate, low-income and one-parent families, and families
receiving national basic living security, data from the Seoul Open Data Plaza
(data.seoul.go.kr), KOSIS National Statistics Portal (kosis.kr), and Gyeonggi Data
Dream (data.gg.go.kr) were used. The temporal scope of the analysis conducted in
this study was the year 2015, while the spatial scope was 56 local governments in
Seoul and Gyeonggi-do.

Results

Descriptive Analysis: The Rates of the Five Major Crimes

Table 2 shows the rates of the five major crimes per 100,000 people in the
capital area (Seoul and Gyeonggi). Uiwang-si had the lowest rate of the five
major crimes―505 cases per 100,000 people. Gwacheon-si had 559 cases,
Analysis of Influential Factors of Violent Crimes and Building a...

Table 2 The rates of the five major crimes per 100,000 people in the capital area (Seoul and Gyeonggi)

Lower 10 local
Higher 10 local governments
governments

Rates of
Ranking Rates of the
the five
Local Local five major
major
crimes per
government crimes per government 100,000
100,000
people
people

1 Uiwangsi 505.2632 Juggu 8351.1741

Gwacheo
2 559.0870 Jongrogu 6476.7018
nsi

Yeongdeungp
3 Yonginsi 632.8119 4090.8360
ogu

4 Suwonsi 694.4496 Gwangjingu 3731.5365

5 Gimposi 710.5212 Geumcheongu 3640.9333

6 Goyangsi 734.6330 Gangnamgu 3630.1517

7 Pajusi 758.3385 Yongsangu 3553.0917

Namyang
8 769.0640 Mapogu 3413.8092
jusi

Hwasung
9 789.7653 Seochogu 3146.6935
si

10 Hanamsi 793.0478 Gangbukgu 3017.2658

Yongin-si had 694 cases, and Gimpo-si had 710 cases. However, the local
government with the highest rate of the five major crimes per 100,000 people
was Jung-gu―8351 cases―while Jongro-gu had 6477 cases, Yeongdeungpo-gu
had 4091 cases, Gwangjin-gu had 3732 cases, and Geumcheon-gu had 3641
cases.
As indicated by the analysis in Table 2, there was a high similarity of violent
crime rates among geographically adjacent communities. Space autocorrelations
may exist between adjacent communities that interact with each other in space.
In such cases, violent crime can have a reciprocal effect, rather than a completely
independent phenomenon among communities. Therefore, it is necessary to
establish a model that takes space into account in terms of analysis. However,
this study is specifically intended to examine whether spatial autocorrelation
exists and whether spatial analysis is required in an empirical way through
exploratory spatial analysis.
 D. W. Lee, D. S. Lee

Fig. 2 LISA test results

Explanatory Spatial Analysis

This study conducted Moran’s I verification to verify spatial autocorrelation of the

occurrence of the five major crimes in Seoul and Gyeonggi.1 According to the result,
0.2229 of positive autocorrelation was shown at a statistically significant level. That is,
there were places with high rates of the five major crimes near areas where many crimes
occur, yet there were places with low rates of the five major crimes near areas with only
a few cases of crime. Therefore, one area has a similar value to its neighboring area, and
they can be said to create spatial crowding. Since the rates of the five major crimes have
global spatial autocorrelation, biased regression coefficients (beta) could be generated
if the rates were analyzed using a model for general regression (Brasington 1999).
Next, spatial autocorrelation local variations that could occur in the research areas
where a verification using Moran’s I was not possible were analyzed through LISA
verification. Since Moran’s I certification measures spatial autocorrelation as one value,
it is not possible to determine regional structures with respect to the corresponding
area’s correlation (Lee et al. 2013). Therefore, to measure spatial autocorrelation
locally, Anselin (1995) developed the LISA index. Fig. 2 shows a LISA map, indicat-
ing hot spot and cold spot areas. The analysis results are as follows. First, hot spot
(High-High) areas close to local governments with high rates of the occurrence of the
five crimes were Gangseo-gu, Gwangjin-gu, Dongdaemun-gu, Dongjak-gu, Seocho-
gu, Seongdong-gu, Jungnang-gu, Yongsan-gu, Eunpyeong-gu, and Jung-gu.
Meanwhile, cold spot (Low-Low) areas close to local governments with low rates of
the occurrence of the five crimes were Hwaseong-si, Suwon-si, Osan-si, Pyeongtaek-si,
Anseong-si, Icheon-si, and Yeoju-si. There is a difference between the analysis result of
local spatial autocorrelation and information on the rate of simple crimes, because one

1
In order to measure spatial autocorrelation, a spatial weight matrix must be established that defines the
adjacent relationships between regions. There are three methods for building spatial weight matrices:
contiguity, distance, and k-nearest neighbors. In this study, spatial weight matrix using contiguity was built,
and the method of QUEEN in detail, the adjacent dimension was set to be set at 1.
Analysis of Influential Factors of Violent Crimes and Building a...

Table 3 Results of the Lagrange multiplier test

Value Prob

Lagrange Multiplier(lag) 3.9885 0.0458

Lagrange Multiplier(error) 0.2443 0.6211

area was selected as a hot spot when it had especially significant and high statistics
compared with its surrounding areas.

Spatial Regression Analysis

Model Verification

The results of a LM test conducted to select a model suitable for the analysis are as
follows. First, in terms of LM-Lag, the null hypothesis about spatial independence was
rejected (p < 0.05), while the null hypothesis of LM-Error was not. Therefore, it was

Table 4 Spatial regression analysis results

Variables OLS SLM SEM

spatial effect ρ(Rho) 0.20*

λ(Lambda) −0.42
governance capacity Local security council −285.68 −266.35* −314.62*
public administration Crime-monitoring facilities −0.56** −0.58*** −0.51***
capacity Crime-related budget −124.76 −85.98 −166.28**
Crime Agency 3.42*** 3.35*** 3.58***
physical capacity Harmful facilities 9.07** 7.96** 8.79***
Land of city parks 33.21 40.22 28.49
Land of schools 24.48 18.63 33.41
social-economic Regional economy 6.85643e-005 7.1841e-005 6.41892e-005
environments Race heterogeneity 11.41 12.44* 8.63
Divorce rate 529.99*** 595.03*** 542.13***
Rate of low-income and 150.11 148.18 87.56
one-parent families
Rate of families receiving −75.70 −68.79 −65.42
national basic living security
constant term −277.82 −810.14* −270.52
suitability of model R2 0.93 0.94 0.94
AIC 849.05 847.27 848.37
SC 875.38 875.63 874.70
Log Likelihood −411.53 −409.64 −411.19
diagnostics for spatial Likelihood Ratio 3.78* 0.68
dependence

( *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01)

 D. W. Lee, D. S. Lee

judged appropriate to analyze utilizing the spatial lag model, rather than the linear
regression model or spatial error model (Table 3).
Next, the suitability of the spatial regression model was tested with R2, log
likelihood, Akaike Info Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Criterion (SC). Table 4 shows
that R2 in the linear regression model was 0.93 and the spatial error model was 0.94,
while the spatial error model was 0.94. With respect to model suitability, AIC was
849.051 in the linear regression model, 848.373 in the spatial error model, but 847.274
in the spatial lag model. Regarding log likelihood, the spatial lag model was −409.637,
which decreased in comparison with the linear regression model (−411.525) and spatial
error model (−411.186). According to the results related to AIC and log likelihood
above, the spatial lag model can be judged to be the most suitable model. However,
diagnostics for spatial dependence test statistical significance of improvement in model
suitability created when a spatial lag variable or spatial error variable is included.
According to the test results, improvement in model suitability was conducted at a
statistically significant level, when spatial lag variable was included. Meanwhile,
improvement in the model, including spatial error variable, was not statistically
significant.

Spatial Regression Analysis Results

Table 4 shows the analysis results on the influencing factors of the five major crimes
occurring in the regions around the capital based on the spatial lag model. First, the
lagged variable ρ(Rho) value, which is the most important in the spatial lagged
model, was deducted at a statistically significant level― 0.1950. These variables
show spatial ripple effects on the occurrence of the five major crimes, which are
the dependent variables; therefore, the occurrence of the five major crimes in
certain local communities can be explained to be positively influenced by the
occurrence of the five major crimes in the neighboring local government. That is,
the number of the five major crimes in a certain local community increases as
the number of the five major crimes in its neighboring local community in-
creases. This empirically explains that it is necessary to prevent and act against
the five major crimes based on cooperation with the neighboring local
government.
Second, the formation of a local security council with governance capacity de-
creased the number of the five major crimes at a statistically significant level. A local
security council is a public-private cooperation organization formed by various stake-
holders in the community to reduce crimes. Cooperation and networking among local
governments, related organizations, and civic groups help to establish community law
and order, creating a social safety network. In addition, supplementation by private
resources helps to overcome the limits of the local governments’ public resources
(human resources and material resources), to prevent and control crimes in the com-
munity. Therefore, a partnership or multi-agency approach that provides services based
on public-private two-way communication and partnership is required to reduce com-
munity crimes. In other words, in Korea, local communities should continue to activate
local security councils. In particular, the operation should be carried out through
practical cooperation and network, moving forward from formal operations. Through
this, the government should achieve a reduction in the violent crime rate in the short
Analysis of Influential Factors of Violent Crimes and Building a...

term, and should address the anxiety of citizens in the long run and develop into a safe
city.
Third, crime-monitoring facilities among administrative capabilities decreased
the number of the five major crimes at a statistically significant level. CCTV is
the representative example based on environmental designs to prevent crimes.
CCTV helps the police recognize crimes promptly and chase criminals, so it puts
physical and psychological pressure on potential criminals. In other words,
CCTV adds weight to the cost brought about by crimes, when potential criminals
are planning to commit crimes, leading them to make a rational decision to give
up on the criminal act. In addition, CCTV enhances a sense of security and
improves quality of life by reducing citizens’ fear of crime. In addition, the latest
crime monitoring facility enables monitoring of blind spots that exist within the
community. It also complements and replaces human resources to enable efficient
monitoring of crimes. Next, an increase in the manpower in charge of crime in
local governments increased the number of the five major crimes. Manpower in
charge of crime was expected to be a defense variable hindering the occurrence
of crimes, but the analysis result suggested the contrary. Regarding this, JEONG
(Kyeong-Seok 2010) interpreted that the result was due to more police forces
being stationed after patrol divisions had been relocated to crime hot spots. The
crime-related budget appeared to reduce the five major crimes, but it was not
statistically significant.
Fourth, among physical environments related to crimes in local communities,
the density of harmful facilities increased the number of the five major crimes at a
statistically significant level. This analysis result, supporting routine activity
theory, explains that areas with many harmful facilities have high rates of crime
because crime opportunity factors as objects of targets increase there as well. City
park or school land in local communities also raises the occurrence of the five
major crimes, but it is not statistically significant. This result is in line with much
advanced research.
Fifth, among the social-structural environments of local communities, race
heterogeneity and divorce rate turned out to increase the number of the five
major crimes. The occurrence of the five major crimes increased as foreigner and
divorce rates increased. This supports social disorganization theory, which states
that high foreigner and divorce rates weaken ties in the community and increase
the number of crimes. In other words, with the frequent movement of members
and the rapid increase in the proportion of foreigners, a situation is being created
in which cultural conflicts and collective selfishness occur and hatred toward
each other may worsen, leading to crime. Deconstruction also makes it difficult
to properly educate, monitor and control adolescents. It can also cause discon-
nection when traditional culture and customs are not properly communicated.
Furthermore, the risk of exposure to the criminal environment can increase, such
as the possibility of damage caused by the absence of parents. This is a similar
result to the analysis in de Oliveira et al. (2017). This corresponds to advanced
research by Morenoff et al. (Morenoff et al. 2001), Tseloni et al. (2004), and
Jung et al. (2010). Level of regional economy, rate of low-income and one-parent
families, and rate of families receiving national basic living security were
statistically insignificant.
 D. W. Lee, D. S. Lee

Conclusion

The purpose of this study was to determine the cause of the occurrence of the five
violent crimes that threaten the security of our society. Hence, the causes of occurrence
of the five violent crimes from an ecological perspective focusing on the community’s
structural and environmental factors were deducted. Especially, the space effect, which
was considered as a limit since it had not been properly reflected in the empirical
analysis, was included in the analysis through the spatial regression model. The
analysis results and the political impressions based on this are as follows.
First, the occurrence of the five major crimes in a certain local community was
positively influenced by the rate of the five major crimes of its neighboring local
community. This is the result that empirically supports the necessity of cooperation
between local governments, which is considered critical for community safety and
public order. Concretely, an increase in the number of crimes in a certain local
community is more than just that local community’s own phenomenon. Furthermore,
it has a negative ripple effect (spill-over) on neighboring local communities. Therefore,
cooperative prevention and measures with the neighboring local government must be
carried out to prevent the spill-over of the neighboring local community’s crime and to
improve crime-related performance of the local government. Cooperation between
local governments is based on the spill-over theory of crime, so a certain local
government’s crime prevention and response policies can prevent negative potential
results such as displacement of crime to spatially close local communities. In addition,
the local government’s independent crime policies could cause unnecessary competi-
tion with the neighboring local government and lead to a waste of resources. Thus,
there needs to be cooperation with neighboring local governments to reduce the waste
of resources and maximize the prevention of crime and the performances of measures.
Second, formation of a community policing council with governance competence
significantly decreased the occurrence of the five major crimes, in terms of statistics.
Policies uniformly applied by the National Police Agency can be changed into practical
and materialized ones suitable for the local situation by the community policing
council, and it creates a positive result, which is the reduction in the number of crimes.
In addition, if government performers individually try to deal with the situation when
there is an increase in the demand for policing in the community, a waste of resources
could be caused based on repeated facilities and equipment including manpower and
budget being used. In this sense, local-based cooperative public safety resolves the
repetition and waste of resources by utilizing expertise and resources of related and
private organizations. In other words, selection and concentration is possible. One
important aspect, however, is that the private should not be mobilized by the public’s
need; public-private cooperation based on a collaborative and cooperative relationship,
understanding of each other’s independence, and equal partnership should be carried
out. In this way, a greater synergy effect can be created by organically combining many
types of private resources with public resources.
Third, crime monitoring facilities reduced the five major crimes at a statistically
significant level. CCTV is a representative example of increasing perceived risks strategy
in situational crime prevention theory (Clarke 1997). It increases the difficulty of criminal
acts and the riskiness of arrest that potential criminals perceive and makes them give up on
committing crimes. Especially, the advent of the fourth industrial revolution will increase
Analysis of Influential Factors of Violent Crimes and Building a...

utilization and importance of crime watch facilities, including CCTV. For example, face
perception functions and big data are combined in AI-combined CCTV, tso it can
automatically identify criminals. In addition, the US’s shot-spotter utilizes sound sensitive
devices installed in the community, recognizes gunshots in real time, discovers exactly
where crimes are happening, and reports them to nearby police. Therefore, continuous
research related to this are required in Korea, as well.
Fourth, as routine activity theory explains, a density of harmful facilities in local
communities increased the occurrence of the five major crimes. Crimes occur because
they own the features that the communities induce and lure (Brantingham and
Brantingham 2003). Therefore, local governments must pay attention to crime
attractors that are the places providing potential criminals with strong motivation,
intention, and opportunity to commit specific crimes. Concrete regulations and a
crackdown on harmful facilities by local governments and the police, as well as joint
public-private crackdowns are important. A joint squad team has an advantage in that it
interrupts intermittent links between crackdowns by civil servants and business owners
when the crackdown is primarily conducted by public institutions. In addition, areas for
crackdowns can be extended, and continuous monitoring systems can be operated,
since private resources are utilized. However, a joint squad team may lack representa-
tiveness of civil society and be unskilled in practical governance or cooperation;
therefore, the establishment of official manuals for the private sector as more than just
supportive participants will provide them with the regular rights and duties associated
with a sustainable practice-oriented joint squad team.
Political implications based on the analysis results of this study were suggested, as
above. However, this study is limited in terms of the analysis of external validity, since the
analysis was conducted only in Seoul and Gyeonggi. Therefore, there is a need for an
analysis targeting domestic local governments by extending the spatial extent. In addition,
an attempt to subdivide the analysis by inputting each of the five major crimes as
dependent variables, to establish policies with high exactness according to the frequency
of violent crimes occurring in each local community, could be another viable option.

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Affiliations

Dae Woong Lee 1 & Da Sol Lee 1

1
Global E-Policy and E-Government Institution, Sungkyunkwan University, 25-2 Sungkyunkwan-ro,
Myeongnyun 3(sam)ga-dong, Jongno-gu, Seoul, South Korea