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Projection of spatial and temporal changes of rainfall in Sarawak of Borneo

Island using statistical downscaling of CMIP5 models

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 Atmospheric Research 197 (2017) 446–460

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Atmospheric Research
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/atmosres

Projection of spatial and temporal changes of rainfall in Sarawak of Borneo MARK

Island using statistical downscaling of CMIP5 models
Zulfaqar Sa'adia, Shamsuddin Shahida,⁎, Eun-Sung Chungb, Tarmizi bin Ismaila
a
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia
b
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 01811 Seoul, Republic of Korea

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: This study assesses the possible changes in rainfall patterns of Sarawak in Borneo Island due to climate change
Statistical downscaling through statistical downscaling of General Circulation Models (GCM) projections. Available in-situ observed
Climate change projection rainfall data were used to downscale the future rainfall from ensembles of 20 GCMs of Coupled Model
General circulation model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) for four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios,
Representative concentration pathways
namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Model Output Statistics (MOS) based downscaling models were
Sarawak
developed using two data mining approaches known as Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM).
The SVM was found to downscale all GCMs with normalized mean square error (NMSE) of 48.2–75.2 and skill
score (SS) of 0.94–0.98 during validation. The results show that the future projection of the annual rainfalls is
increasing and decreasing on the region-based and catchment-based basis due to the influence of the monsoon
season affecting the coast of Sarawak. The ensemble mean of GCMs projections reveals the increased and de-
creased mean of annual precipitations at 33 stations with the rate of 0.1% to 19.6% and one station with the rate
of −7.9% to − 3.1%, respectively under all RCP scenarios. The remaining 15 stations showed inconsistency
neither increasing nor decreasing at the rate of −5.6% to 5.2%, but mainly showing a trend of decreasing
rainfall during the first period (2010–2039) followed by increasing rainfall for the period of 2070–2099.

1. Introduction
The transformation of the hydrological cycle due to temperature rise
has resulted in the magnitudes, frequencies and intensities of rainfall as
well as its spatial-temporal distribution across the world (Scherer and
Diffenbaugh, 2014; Wang et al., 2015; Diffenbaugh et al., 2015; Wang
et al., 2016; Swain et al., 2016). The Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) indicates that
the global mean temperature change for the period, 2016–2035 will
have the range of 0.3 °C to 0.7 °C relative to that for the period,
1986–2005 and it is likely to exceed 1.5 °C by the end of the 21st
century relative to 1850–1900 (Stocker et al., 2013). Sarawak located
in the island of Borneo along the line of the equator had an increasing
record of the temperature in the range of 0.1–0.15 °C/decade (Tangang
et al., 2008). Significant change in rainfall is also observed in most parts
of Sarawak (Hua et al., 2013).
The rainforests of Borneo have one of the most diverse ecosystems
in the world; particularly the rainforest of Sarawak has one of the
highest concentrations of species per unit area in the world. The multi-
dimensional complexity of ecosystems such as richness in species,
complex interaction among the species, and spatial and temporal het-
erogeneities creates various microenvironments and habitats to dif-
ferent flora and fauna (Nakagawa et al., 2007). Because of the high
species diversity, species of tropical rainforests have narrow niches
(Forest Department Sarawak, 2013). Precipitation plays an important
role in the complexity of the ecosystem. Therefore, small changes in
climate would have significant impacts on the local rainfall character-
istics and then the resulting hydrological regimes can eliminate species
and reduce biological diversity (Chase et al., 2000; IPCC, 2014; Rashid
et al., 2015; Wassmann et al., 2009). Furthermore, rainfall plays an
important role in the yield of oil palm, which is one of the major drivers
of economies of Sarawak (Paterson et al., 2015). High rainfall causes
poor pollination and reduction of photosynthesis. On the other hand,
low rainfall reduces the leaf production rate, fruit set, bunch number
and weight (Harun and Noor, 2002). In addition, changes in rainfall can
increase flood frequency, which is a common phenomenon in Sarawak.
The floods in 2015 occurred over a wide low-lying area in the South of
Sarawak. Previously, the year of 2009 was also known as the extreme
year for Sarawak when two heavy rainfall events caused severe floods
that almost covered the whole of Sarawak (Hamdan et al., 2010;

⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: sshahid@utm.my (S. Shahid), eschung@seoultech.ac.kr (E.-S. Chung).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.08.002
Received 2 November 2016; Received in revised form 2 August 2017; Accepted 2 August 2017
Available online 03 August 2017
0169-8095/ © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Z. Sa'adi et al.
Dindang et al., 2011). Therefore, changes in climate can have a number
of severe implications in Sarawak of Borneo as a number of studies
suggested that the tropical regions as more susceptible to climate
change (Liu et al., 2009; Mishra et al., 2015).
Spatial and temporal variability of climate plays a key role as a
driver of many ecological and environmental processes (Camera et al.,
2016). Understanding possible future changes in the climate and their
impacts are essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation
planning (Batisani and Yarnal, 2010; Kim and Chung, 2012; Shahid
et al., 2016). Despite huge consequences of climate change, only a few
studies for Sarawak have been conducted so far to assess the possible
changes in climate due to global warming (Malaysian Meteorological
Department, 2009; Ahmed et al., 2016). Malaysian Meteorological
Department (2009) used nine GCMs of Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)
for the projection of future climate of Sarawak under the A1B scenario.
They reported the temperature increase in the range of 1.0 °C to 3.5 °C
in Borneo, Malaysia and the significant increase in rainfall in the range
of 6–10%, which are much higher compared to other part of Borneo
Malaysia. Malaysian Meteorological Department (2009) used a regional
climate model known as PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Im-
pacts Studies) for dynamic downscaling of GCM HadCM3 projections
under the A1B emission scenario. Kwan et al. (2014) also used PRECIS
for dynamically downscale the projections of GCM HadRM3P to assess
future changes in climate of Sarawak at 25 km grid resolution. Both of
the studies projected the significant increase in temperature and rainfall
events in the region. Ahmed et al. (2016) assessed future changes in
climate of Sarawak based on two dynamically-downscaled GCM pro-
jections namely ECHAM5 and CGCM2.3.2 using RCM (Regional Climate
Model) RegHCM under A1B of a special report on emissions scenarios
(SRES) of the IPCC AR4. The study revealed that the effect of climate
change in Borneo, Malaysia can be quite heterogeneous. All the studies
projected future climate of Borneo, Malaysia was used only a few GCMs
and under IPCC AR4 SRES scenarios.
The AR4 scenarios have become obsolete and therefore, IPCC de-
veloped a new set of new emission scenario referred to as representative
concentration pathways (RCPs) (Moss et al., 2010; Singh and Goyal,
2016). The RCPs provide time-dependent projections of greenhouse
gases (GHG) concentrations and therefore, future climate projections
based on RCPs are more realistic compared to SRES (Taylor et al.,
2012). IPCC conducted a broader variety of experiments with GCMs
under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to ad-
dress a wider variety of scientific questions in order to project climate
in terms of new future forcing scenarios (Chen et al., 2014; Sun et al.,
2015; Ul Hasson et al., 2016). Therefore, it is required to project climate
using GCMs of CMIP5 under RCPs.
The GCM simulations of climate change fail to provide reliable in-
formation on spatial scales below about 200 km and therefore, it is
important to downscale coarse resolution GCM simulated climatic
variables to local scales for impact assessment and adaptation planing
(Su et al., 2016). The downscaling methods are broadly classified as
dynamical and statistical downscaling method (Pour et al., 2014).
Statistical downscaling methods are often preferred over dynamical
methods due to several practical advantages as it is computationally
inexpensive, but as powerful as the dynamic downscaling. It can be
implemented easily in any region or area of interest even at the me-
teorological station level and therefore, suitable for impact studies at
smaller watershed or agricultural field scale. The statistical down-
scaling method is not GCM dependent like RCMs where the biases in
GCMs can be corrected very easily (Wilby et al., 2002; Maraun et al.,
2010; Sachindra and Perera, 2016). Furthermore, RCMs used for dy-
namic downscaling of climate are often found heavily biased for par-
ticular regions or particular climatic parameters (Turco et al., 2011).
Therefore, statistical downscaling is widely used in climate change
projection.
The objective of this study is to assess the possible spatial and
temporal changes of precipitation in Sarawak of tropical Borneo
447
Atmospheric Research 197 (2017) 446–460
Islands. 20 GCMs of CMIP5 under four RCPs namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5,
RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 were utilized for this purpose. Due to a complex
non-linear relationship between the predictors and the local climatic
variables in tropical regions, generally used linear and non-linear
models often fail to develop efficient relationship between predictors
and predictand. Recent studies reported that SVM and RF can model
highly non-linear phenomena (Ishak et al., 2013; Ogutu et al., 2011;
Devak et al., 2015). Therefore, SVM and RF were used to downscale
coarse resolution GCM rainfall to the meteorological station level.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study area
Sarawak is situated in the western part of the Maritime Continent of
the Southeast Asian region with an area of 124,450 km2. It is a tropical
State with an equatorial climate characterized by uniform temperature,
high humidity and copious rainfall (Tangang et al., 2012). Located
immediately north of the equator between latitude 0°50′N and 5°N and
longitude 109°36′E and 115°40′E, the alluvial coastal plain of Sarawak
stretches over some 700 km along the northeastern coast of the island of
Borneo. The mountainous inland region extends from the State's wa-
tershed boundary with Indonesian Borneo, Kalimantan. This region is
generally over 300 m above sea levels with substantial areas exceeding
1200 m. The Köppen-Geiger climate classification system categorized
this region as Tropical Rainforest (Af) with annual rainfall ranging
between 3300 mm near the coastland to 4600 mm further inland which
is 4–5 times higher than that of the temperate countries (Kottek et al.,
2006). It is hot and humid throughout the year with average daily
temperature ranging from 23 °C during the early hours of the morning
to 32 °C during the day. Humidity is constantly high and usually ex-
ceeding 68%. Consistent with other places, generally temperature in
Sarawak is rising.
Owing to the geographic location, climate variability in Sarawak is
very much influenced by the two monsoonal changes and two shorter
periods of inter-monsoon seasons. The Northeast (NE) monsoon is more
prominent because of the sudden surge in the rainfall amounts, which
usually occurs between November and March. The Southwest (SW)
monsoon from May to September is on the contrary associated with a
relatively dry period during the active monsoon months (Dindang et al.,
2013; Yik et al., 2015). The inter-monsoon is on April and October,
respectively. However, the annual cycle of precipitation shows the
spatial and temporal variations due to the complex distribution of land,
sea and terrain in the region (Chang et al., 2005).
Based on annual and monsoon rainfall distribution, the study area
can be divided into four homogeneous rainfall zones: (1) Zone-A lo-
cated in the northern region near the coast and heavily influenced by
NE monsoon; (2) Zone-B covers the most of the northern and central
low-lying coastal region; (3) Zone-C extended as a strip from the
southern coast to the north through the central part of Sarawak; (4)
Zone-D covers the interior highlands which receives the highest rainfall
due to orographic effect.
2.2. Data and sources
In this study, the observed hourly rainfall data for the period
1971–2005 from 49 rainfall stations fairly distributed throughout
Sarawak were selected and obtained from the Drainage and Irrigation
Department of Malaysia. The rainfall data have been summed into
daily, monthly and annual totals. Geographical location of Sarawak in
the map of South East Asia and the location of rain-gauge stations used
in this study are shown in Fig. 1.
The CMIP5, a globally coordinated set of GCMs simulations of dif-
ferent modeling groups provides historical and future climate simula-
tions (Taylor et al., 2012). 20 GCMs for CMIP5 as shown in Table 1
were used in this study. The choice of the models was dependent on the
Z. Sa'adi et al. Atmospheric Research 197 (2017) 446–460

Fig. 1. Geographical location of Sarawak in the map of Southeast Asia and location of rain-gauge stations over the annual rainfall map of Sarawak.

availability of GCM simulations for four RCP scenarios namely, RCP2.6, latitudes 88°–128°E and longitudes −2°S–16°N (Fig. 2) was selected,
RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 in Sarawak. The name, modeling centers considering that the domain is sufficient to cover the influence of cir-
and resolutions of selected models are presented in Table 1. culation patterns of precipitation climate of the study area. GCMs si-
The monthly precipitation dataset of selected GCMs from 210 grid mulated data were downloaded from the website (http://cmip-pcmdi.
points covering the study area (Fig. 2) for the time period of 1971–2005 llnl.gov/cmip5/).
were used to select the predictors for the development of downscaling
models. It is very crucial to select an adequate size of climate domain
3. Methods
for accurate downscaling of climate. The aerial extent of the climatic
domain for the selection of predictors is usually selected based on the
The statistical downscaling methods are subdivided into two large
mechanism of rainfall in the study area (Kannan and Ghosh, 2011).
groups, perfect prognosis (PP) method and model output statistics
Therefore, according to Najafi et al. (2010), the domain size, neither
(MOS). The perfect prognosis (PP) is the most widely used methods for
should be too small that may not capture atmospheric phenomena, nor
climate downscaling, where a statistical relationship is established be-
too large to increase the computation of cost and time. Therefore, a
tween observed climate variables (predictand) and observed large-scale
domain consisting of 210 grid points covering the region between
predictors. The relationship is then used for the future projection of

Table 1
List of CMIP5 GCMs used in this study.

No Modelling Centre Model Resolution

(Lon × Lat)

1 Beijing Climate Center China BCC-CSM1–1 2.8 × 2.8

2 Canadian Centre for Climate xand Analysis, Canada CanESM2 2.8 × 2.8
3 NASA/GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) USA GISS-E2-H 2.5 × 2.5
4 Met Office Hadley Centre, UK HadGEM2-ES 1.87 × 1.25
5 Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Japan Agency MIROC5 1.4 × 1.4
for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan
6 Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Japan Agency MIROC-ESM 2.8 × 2.8
for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan
7 Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Japan Agency MIROC-ESM-CHEM 2.8 × 2.8
for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan
8 Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Norway NorESM1-M 2.5 × 1.9
9 Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research,Norwegian Meteorological Institute,Norway NorESM1-ME 2.5 × 1.9
10 Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany MPI-ESM-LR 1.87 × 1.86
11 Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Germany MPI-ESM-MR 1.87 × 1.86
12 Beijing Climate Center China BCC-CSM1.1(m) 2.8 × 2.8
13 Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique France CNRM-CM5 1.4 × 1.4
14 National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea Meteorological Administration South Korea HadGEM2-AO 1.87 × 1.25
15 National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA CCSM4 1.25 × 0.94
16 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization/Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence, Australia CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 1.86 × 1.87
17 Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russia INMCM4.0 2.0 × 1.5
18 Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Italy CMCC-CM 0.75 × 0.75
19 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA GFDL-CM3 2.5 × 2.0
20 Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Italy CMCC-CMS 3.75 × 3.71

448
Z. Sa'adi et al.
climate variable using GCM simulated predictors (Maraun et al., 2010;
Manzanas et al., 2015). Besides PP, model output statistics (MOS)
methods have gained popularity in recent years, where GCM simulated
predictors instead of observe predictors are used to establish statistical
link with observed predictands and then the statistical link is applied to
the projection using simulated predictor for a future scenario
(Widmann et al., 2003; Eden and Widmann, 2014; Turco et al., 2017).
In MOS, the transfer function between simulated output and observa-
tions depends on the chosen GCM and therefore, the model needs to
calibrate individually for each GCM. However, MOS is able to explicitly
account for model-inherent error and bias (Turco et al., 2011; Eden and
Widmann, 2014) and therefore, found potentially applicable to climate
change simulations (Widmann et al., 2003; Eden and Widmann, 2014;
Sunyer et al., 2015; Shirvani and Landman, 2015; Bi et al., 2017; Turco
et al., 2017).
Usually, the distribution of GCM simulation is corrected in respect
of observation in MOS downscaling. However, the capability of event-
wise MOS downscaling has been demonstrated in a number of studies
(Widmann et al., 2003; Eden et al., 2012; Eden and Widmann, 2014;
Shirvani and Landman, 2015; Bi et al., 2017). Especially, Eden and
Widmann (2014) reported that it is possible to improve the capability of
MOS by utilizing the predictive information across a spatial domain by
linking local precipitation to spatial precipitation patterns similar to PP
downscaling. The MOS downscaling models were developed in this
study by linking local precipitation to spatial patterns of GCM hindcasts
(precipitation) over a climatic domain.
Monthly rainfall data were used to develop the downscaling models
as the predictive capabilities of monthly downscaling models are
usually more than those of daily models (Maurer and Hidalgo, 2008).
The MOS downscaling models for all GCMs were developed for the
calendar month individually. The atmospheric circulations vary from
season to season and therefore, downscaling models are usually de-
veloped separately for each calendar month in order to avoid seasonal
phase error (Moron et al., 2008). A number of recent studies revealed
better modeling of precipitation by using separate models for each of
the 12 calendar months (Robertson et al., 2012; Sachindra et al., 2014a,
2014b; Sachindra and Perera, 2016).
The relationship between local precipitation and spatial patterns of
GCM hindcasts are often very complex. Data mining (DM) approaches
have been proven efficient in modeling highly non-linear relationships.
Among data mining models developed so far, the RF and SVM have
449
Atmospheric Research 197 (2017) 446–460
Fig. 2. Grid points from where GCM simulated
rainfall data were collected.
been reported to be more efficient due to their capability to avoid over
fitting and smoothly model highly non-linear relationships (Devak
et al., 2015; Shi et al., 2015; Nicolas et al., 2016). The performances of
RF and SVM have been compared in the study to select the best method
for downscaling and projection of rainfall in Sarawak.
3.1. Procedure
The procedure used in this study consists of six steps for statistical
downscaling of rainfall as outlined below:
1. Selected CMIP5 GCM precipitation simulations were gridded into a
common 2° × 2° grid
2. The principal components (PCs) of GCM simulated precipitations at
210 grid points were calculated using supervised principal compo-
nent analysis (PCA) and then used as predictors for the development
of the MOS downscaling model.
3. RF and SVM models were formulated using historical rainfall and
PCs of GCM run for the historical period 1971–2005. Individual
models were developed for the downscaling rainfall of each month
separately. The models were calibrated and validated with the his-
torical observed rainfall data.
4. The models were used for downscaling CMIP5 GCM simulations
under four RCPs for the time period, 2010–2099.
5. Ensembles of downscaled GCM projections were generated using a
generalized linear model (GLM; McCullagh and Nelder, 1989) to
reduce the dependency on a single GCM model to project the future
change of rainfall.
6. The mean variances of precipitation during different time periods
(2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) were analyzed against
historical period (1971–2005).
The methods used for development of downscaling models and
analysis of projected rainfall are discussed in the following sections.
3.2. Supervised principal component analysis
For utilization of predictor information across a spatial domain, it is
useful to reduce the dimensionality of the field. The PCs of GCM si-
mulated precipitations over the climate domain are generally used to
optimally link the predictor field to the predictand (Eden and
Z. Sa'adi et al.
Fig. 3. Scatter plot of monthly observed and downscale precipitation of 20 GCMs at Limbang DID station using RF and SVM.
Widmann, 2014). Many varieties of PCA have been applied for the re-
duction of dimensionality in predictors of the prediction model. How-
ever, there is no guarantee that the PCs will be related to predictand.
Furthermore, PCs generated from noisy predictors may seriously affect
the predictive capability of the model. Supervised PCA estimates the
PCs of the selected predictors according to their correlations with the
predictand and thus removes the effect of noisy features on the pre-
diction model (Bair et al., 2006). In the present study, standard re-
gression coefficients for each predictor were estimated and the pre-
dictors having coefficient more than a threshold were selected to
compute PCs. The first few PCs that represent > 95% variability of
selected predictors were used to develop the downscaling model.
3.3. Random forest
RF introduced by Breiman (2001) is based on classification and
regression tree (CART) analysis (Breiman et al., 1984). It is a non-
parametric statistical regression algorithm that produces numerous in-
dependent trees to reach a final decision through two randomization
450
Atmospheric Research 197 (2017) 446–460
approaches, one in the selection of training samples and the other in
selection of variables at each node of a tree. This randomness alleviates
these typical drawbacks of CART such as an over fitting problem and
sensitivity to the training sample configuration (Breiman, 2001). Using
out-of-bag (OOB) data from random selection, RF provides internal
cross-validation and relative importance of a variable when samples are
held in OOB (Stumpf and Kerle, 2011).
RF has been identified as an effective and robust algorithm because:
(1) the robustness of RF may avoid over-fitting; (2) many different types
of input variables can be implemented without variable deletion and
regularization; and (3) it has an analytical and operational flexibility.
Thus, RF would be useful to build regression models for precipitation in
relation to a number of predictors across different spatial scales.
3.4. Support vector machines
SVM is a machine learning technique which is capable of capturing
the highly nonlinear relationship between predictor and predictand and
thus performs better than conventional linear regression models (Acton,
Z. Sa'adi et al. Atmospheric Research 197 (2017) 446–460

Table 2 maximizing their objective function. The least squares approach is used
Validation of models in downscaling GCM rainfall for whole year using NMSE, Pbias and to choose the parameters (w, b) to minimise the sum of the squared
SS at Limbang DID station.
deviations of the data.
GCM Models NMSE Pbias SS RF and SVM have been applied successfully in many studies of
precipitation downscaling using PP based downscaling models (Ibarra-
RF SVM RF SVM RF SVM Berastegui et al., 2011; Lima et al., 2012; Shi and Song, 2015; Shi et al.,
2015), but not used so far for development of MOS downscaling
BCC-CSM1-1 62.2 56.9 − 1.2 6.7 0.96 0.97
CanESM2 66.9 57.1 3.8 4.4 0.95 0.96 models.
GISS-E2-H 68.2 48.3 5.0 4.7 0.96 0.98
HadGEM2-ES 56.8 70.5 − 3.5 − 1.4 0.97 0.95 3.5. Evaluation of performance
MIROC5 65.9 60.1 1.3 5.7 0.96 0.96
MIROC-ESM 63.0 64.4 2.4 − 1.0 0.96 0.96
MIROC-ESM-CHEM 76.0 55.9 5.4 5.4 0.94 0.97
The performance of GCMs was assessed by comparing the down-
NorESM1-M 64.6 75.2 5.8 8.4 0.96 0.94 scaled with observed rainfall graphically as well as by using three dif-
NorESM1-ME 60.9 48.3 5.3 5.4 0.96 0.98 ferent statistics, namely, normalized mean square error (NMSE), per-
MPI-ESM-LR 68.8 53.7 3.1 2.7 0.96 0.97 cent of bias (Pbias) and skill score (SS) (Perkins et al., 2007). The SS
MPI-ESM-MR 56.4 56.4 3.1 3.0 0.97 0.97
measures the similarity between two probability distribution functions
BCC-CSM1.1(m) 68.2 48.2 4.8 3.7 0.96 0.98
CNRM-CM5 66.0 53.2 2.0 1.1 0.96 0.97 (PDFs) as follows:
HadGEM2-AO 65.0 56.3 3.4 − 0.2 0.95 0.97 n
CCSM4 71.6 66.1 2.0 5.3 0.95 0.96 SS = ∑ min (fg , fo )
CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 66.8 57.4 1.6 6.5 0.96 0.97 i=1 (3)
INMCM4.0 73.1 63.1 9.5 7.8 0.94 0.96
CMCC-CM 63.3 50.5 3.9 1.1 0.96 0.97 where, n is the number of bins used to calculate the PDF, fg is the fre-
GFDL-CM3 74.4 69.0 8.2 − 0.5 0.95 0.95 quency of values in a given bin from the gridded data, and fo is the
CMCC-CMS 66.5 68.2 2.9 6.4 0.95 0.95
frequency of values in a given bin from the observed data. If a model
simulates the observed conditions perfectly, the SS becomes one.
2012). The SVMs for regression were first introduced by Vapnik et al.
(1997). SVMs can be represented as two-layer networks where the 3.6. Spatial interpolation of rainfall
weights are non-linear in the first layer and linear in the second layer.
Mathematically, a basic function of the statistical learning process is The spatial patterns of rainfall were then mapped by using ArcGIS
10.3. The performances of various deterministic and geo-statistical in-
M
y = f (x ) = ∑i =1 αi ∅i (x ) w∅ (x ) terpolation methods available in ArcGIS 10.3 were compared using root
(1)
mean square errors (RMSE) for selection of most suitable interpolation
where the output is a linearly weighted sum of M. The nonlinear method for the mapping of rainfall in Sarawak. The performance of four
transformation is carried out by φ(x). The decision function of SVM is popular semi-variogram models, namely circular, exponential, gaussian
represented as: and spherical, were also assessed to find the best fitted semi-variogram
for kriging. The RMSE was used to assess the performance of the dif-
N
y = f (x ) = {∑ αi K (x i , x )} − b (2) ferent interpolation method as it is a robust measure of accuracy of
i=1
interpolation (Chen and Liu, 2012; Ahmed et al., 2015). The rainfall
where, K is the kernel function, αi and b are parameters, N is the distribution map prepared using selected interpolation method was
number of training data, xi are vectors used in the training process and further validated by its ability to capture the synoptic pattern of rainfall
x is the independent vector. The parameters αi and b are derived by in the region.

Table 3
Validation of models in downscaling GCM rainfall for NE and SW monsoon months using NMSE, Pbias and SS at Limbang DID station.

GCM models NE monsoon SW monsoon

NRMSE Pbias SS NRMSE Pbias SS

RF SVM RF SVM RF SVM RF SVM RF SVM RF SVM

BCC-CSM1-1 55.4 48.9 − 1.4 8.2 0.98 0.98 76.1 68.5 − 2.0 6.3 0.93 0.95
CanESM2 70.0 61.4 8.5 9.5 0.96 0.96 65.2 55.4 − 0.9 0.1 0.94 0.97
GISS-E2-H 63.1 53.1 8.7 6.6 0.96 0.97 76.8 43.5 − 1.5 3.2 0.95 0.98
HadGEM2-ES 66.0 85.7 − 6.0 1.5 0.97 0.95 57.7 62.9 1.1 −5.1 0.96 0.95
MIROC5 82.0 61.7 1.8 9.5 0.95 0.97 57.4 67.3 4.3 3.4 0.96 0.94
MIROC-ESM 68.8 68.2 1.5 1.2 0.96 0.96 60.8 64.8 1.9 −4.0 0.96 0.95
MIROC-ESM-CHEM 87.2 57.9 7.1 8.8 0.93 0.97 68.0 47.2 2.3 2.1 0.95 0.97
NorESM1-M 70.1 84.4 11.6 11.6 0.96 0.94 62.4 75.9 − 2.2 1.9 0.95 0.93
NorESM1-ME 71.5 41.5 7.2 9.3 0.96 0.98 44.9 55.7 − 0.7 2.9 0.98 0.97
MPI-ESM-LR 72.7 53.6 3.9 5.8 0.96 0.98 64.6 64.5 4.7 1.0 0.96 0.96
MPI-ESM-MR 57.3 58.0 5.1 −0.4 0.97 0.97 56.4 70.8 2.1 9.0 0.96 0.95
BCC-CSM1.1(m) 75.8 53.9 8.6 7.1 0.95 0.98 65.5 49.0 − 0.6 2.7 0.95 0.97
CNRM-CM5 71.4 56.9 3.7 5.8 0.96 0.97 59.8 54.0 1.7 −3.3 0.97 0.97
HadGEM2-AO 66.7 55.9 3.8 4.4 0.96 0.97 60.2 60.3 1.1 −3.7 0.96 0.96
CCSM4 83.4 79.9 0.9 7.4 0.94 0.94 78.2 57.4 3.5 0.6 0.93 0.97
CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 63.0 61.7 3.0 9.7 0.97 0.97 76.4 54.0 − 0.2 4.6 0.94 0.96
INMCM4.0 72.2 66.7 9.2 8.2 0.95 0.96 96.2 66.1 14.5 8.0 0.91 0.96
CMCC-CM 65.8 55.4 6.8 0.9 0.96 0.98 61.5 46.3 − 0.8 −1.5 0.95 0.97
GFDL-CM3 74.4 67.3 9.1 2.6 0.95 0.96 75.1 75.8 7.4 −4.0 0.94 0.94
CMCC-CMS 53.1 61.5 5.7 10.3 0.97 0.96 85.7 83.1 0.3 5.2 0.91 0.92

451
Z. Sa'adi et al.
(a)
(c)
Fig. 4. Taylor diagram for 20 GCMs during SVM model validation: (a) NE monsoon; (b) SW monsoon; and (c) whole year.
3.7. Ensemble projections
Due to structural differences in the GCMs, climate projections vary
from one GCM to another leading to different projections when
downscaled at local scale (Sachindra et al., 2014a, 2014b; Yu et al.,
2002). Multi-model ensembles (MMEs) are used to improve the accu-
racy of predictions by reducing uncertainties associated with individual
models (Krishnamurti et al., 1999; Tebaldi and Knutti, 2007; Zhang and
Huang, 2013). Weighted average method is the most widely used
technique for MME, where weights are determined by using the his-
torical relationship between forecasts and observations (Sanchez-
Gomez et al., 2009). Different statistical methods have been used to
decide all weighting values for GCMs including skill score (Sanchez-
Gomez et al., 2009), singular value decomposition (SVD) regression
(Acharya et al., 2011), neural network (Sonkusare et al., 2016), genetic
algorithm (Ahn and Lee, 2016), etc. The variance of climate change in
MME is underestimated if intermodal correlations of ensembles are
ignored (Steinschneider et al., 2015). Regression based MME has re-
ceived attention in recent years due to their ability to preserve the
variance in the mean of MME (Ishizaki et al., 2017). Ahn and Lee
(2016) suggested that MME prediction can be improved by giving more
weight to the member having relatively higher predictability. The
nonlinear relationship between independent and dependent variables
cannot be explained by multiple linear regression, even when the re-
lationship between two variables is significant. GLM with a penalized
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Atmospheric Research 197 (2017) 446–460
(b)
likelihood method can better estimate the regression coefficient in case
of non-linear relationship (Li et al., 2013). In this study, 20 GCMs were
converted into a single GLM ensemble projection to determine the
spatial and temporal variations and changes of rainfall in Sarawak. The
statistical software R package ‘glmnet’ (Friedman et al., 2005) was used
for preparation of MME.
4. Results
4.1. Validation of downscaling model
The downscaling models were calibrated and validated for the his-
torical period, 1971–2005. The accuracy of SVM and RF models is
principally dependent on the selection of the model parameters. A k-
fold cross-validation was used in this study to find the optimal para-
meters, where the data randomly partitioned into ten equal sized sub-
samples. Nine out of ten subsamples were used for the training the
model and one subsample were used for model validation. The cross-
validation process was then repeated 10 times so that all observations
were used for both training and validation, and each observation was
used for validation exactly once. The caret package available in statis-
tical software R was used for this purpose.
It has already been mentioned that RF offers a very elegant way of
computing the out-of-bag (OOB) error estimate, which can be used for
determining the optimal number of trees. However, cross-validation is
Z. Sa'adi et al.
Zone A
Zone C
still recommended when it is required to compare the performance of
RF with other algorithms on the same dataset. The performances of the
models in downscaling rainfall were graphically and numerically as-
sessed. Obtained results during model calibration and validation are
presented in the following sections.
4.1.1. Reconstruction of historical rainfall
The scatter plot of observed and downscaled rainfall was compared
to show the efficacy of the models to downscale rainfall. The compar-
ison was carried out for all models individually by employing RF and
SVM methods. The obtained results at Limbang DID station are pre-
sented in Fig. 3 as an example. These figures show that both RF and
SVM models were able to downscale all the GCM simulations. Even the
highest observed precipitation (732 mm) was well captured by both RF
and SVM downscaling models for most of the GCMs. However, the data
points were found to align closer to the diagonal line for SVM compared
to RF.
4.1.2. Comparison of model performances using statistical indices
The performances of the downscaling models were numerically as-
sessed by using NMSE, Pbias, and SS between the observed and the
downscaled rainfalls during model validation. Obtained results at
Limbang DID station for whole year (Table 2) and two monsoon sea-
sons, namely NE and SW (Table 3) are presented as an example. The
NMSE values for different GCMs for the whole year were found to be
48.2 to 75.2 when downscaled using SVM models, and 56.4 to 76.0
when downscaled using RF models. NMSE values for both NE and SW
monsoons were also found less for SVM for most of the GCMs. The SVM
was also found better in term of Pbias and SS in downscaling most of
the GCMs. Similar results were found in other stations, which indicated
better performance of SVM in downscaling rainfall in the study area
compared to RF. Therefore, SVM downscaling models were used for the
rainfall projection.
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Atmospheric Research 197 (2017) 446–460
Fig. 5. PDFs of monthly observed (black line) and down-
Zone B scaled GCMs monthly rainfall (colored lines) for the histor-
ical period at four stations located in four rainfall zones: (a)
Zone A (39-Bekenu); (b) Zone B (16-Saratok DID); (c) Zone C
(22-Nanga Bangkit); and (d) Zone D (49-Long Sambop). (For
interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend,
the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
Zone D
4.1.3. Taylor diagram
Taylor diagram (Taylor, 2001) gives a concise statistical summary of
correlation, root-mean-square (RMS) difference and the standard de-
viation between observed and model data. Taylor diagrams in Fig. 4
shows the performance of all the 20 GCMs downscaled by SVM for
whole year and two monsoon seasons in the study area. The re-
constructed monthly data at all the stations were used to prepare the
Taylor diagram to show the ability of climate models to simulate the
spatial pattern of precipitation. The results graphically summarized that
all of the GCMs agree well and lie closely with the observations with
correlation in the range of 0.92–0.97 for NE monsoon, 0.90–0.95 for SW
monsoon, and 0.85–0.92 for whole year. The RMS difference between
the simulated and observed rainfall was < 50 mm/month and the
standard deviations of all the models were also very close with the
observed standard deviation. Therefore, it can be concluded that all of
the models show the best performances.
4.1.4. Probability distribution function
The capability of SVM downscaling models in replicating monthly
mean, variance and distribution of rainfall was assessed by comparing
the PDF shapes of downscaled rainfall with observed rainfall. The result
obtained at four stations located in four rainfall zones of Sarawak
(Fig. 1) are shown in Fig. 5. The black line in the figures shows the PDF
of monthly observed rainfall and the colored lines represent the PDF of
downscaled GCM rainfall. The PDFs of downscaled rainfall at all the
stations showed that the downscaled precipitation of most GCMs is very
similar to observed PDF. The results indicate the capability of SVM
downscaling models to simulate rainfall distribution properly.
4.1.5. Spatial variations in rainfall
The contours of observed and downscaled annual and monsoon
rainfall were also prepared to show the ability of SVM downscaling
models to reconstruct the spatial distribution of rainfall in the study
area. Comparison of different interpolation methods revealed that
Z. Sa'adi et al. Atmospheric Research 197 (2017) 446–460

Fig. 6. Contours prepared from observed (solid black line) and downscaled GCMs (dashed and colored lines) annual (upper), NE monsoon (middle) and SW monsoon (lower) rainfall
averaged for the historical period. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

ordinary Krigging with exponential semi-variogram gave the lowest
RMSE of 72.7 mm compared to that obtained using other methods and
semi-variograms (73.2–96.5 mm) during the interpolation of annual
average rainfall of Sarawak (Fig. 1). Annual average rainfall of Sarawak
varies from 2458 mm near the coast to 4800 mm in further inland. The
NE monsoon is the major source of rainfall in the region, which pro-
gresses from the northeast corner of the study area. The gradual in-
crease of rainfall in the NE interior of Borneo is due to topographic
uplift. This indicates that the spatial pattern of annual rainfall produced
by ordinary Krigging with exponential semi-variogram was able to
capture the synoptic pattern of rainfall in the study area. Recent studies
also reported that Kriging incorporate spatial autocorrelation and sta-
tistically optimize the weights when combining regional stations, and
therefore, often give better interpolation at unmeasured points made
from the spatial covariance functions and measured data (Webster and
Oliver 2007; Ahmed et al., 2015; Paparrizos et al., 2016). Therefore,

454
Z. Sa'adi et al.
(a)
(c)
Fig. 7. Scatter plot of monthly observed and GLM estimated MME rainfall for the period 1971–2005 at four stations located in four rainfall zones of Sarawak: (a) Zone A (39-Bekenu): (a)
Zone B (16-Saratok DID); (c) Zone C (22-Nanga Bangkit); and (d) Zone D (49-Long Sambop).
ordinary Kriging with exponential semi-variogram was used for the
mapping of historical and projected rainfall of Sarawak.
The contours prepared from observed and downscaled GCMs an-
nual, NE monsoon and SW monsoon rainfall averaged for the historical
period (1971–2005) are shown in Fig. 6. The solid black lines in the
figures represent the contours prepared from observed rainfall. The
figures show that all the GCMs were able to replicate the spatial dis-
tribution of annual rainfall of Sarawak properly. Most of the GCMs were
also able to reconstruct the spatial distribution of SW and NE monsoon
rainfall. Small variation was observed only for GCMs BCC-CM1.1 and
CNRM-CM5 in replicating NE monsoon rainfall.
4.2. Rainfall projection
4.2.1. Multi-model ensembles
Future rainfalls projected by all CMIP5 GCMs under four RCPs were
downscaled separately by SVM model at all stations. The MME of GCMs
of projected rainfall was computed for each RCP for all stations using
GLM. The ability of GLM was assessed by comparing the monthly MME
rainfall estimated by GLM with the observed rainfall. Scatter plots of
monthly observed and MME rainfall for the period 1971–2005 at four
stations located in four rainfall zones of Sarawak are shown in Fig. 7.
The figures show that GLM estimated MME rainfall is very close of
observed rainfall at all the stations. As a result, the correlation
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Atmospheric Research 197 (2017) 446–460
(b)
(d)
coefficients between observed and GLM estimated MME rainfall were
found at least 0.95 at all the locations. Therefore, it can be remarked
that GLM estimated MME can improve the accuracy in projection by
reducing uncertainties associated with individual GCM.
4.2.2. Changes in annual rainfall
Time series of GLM ensemble mean of projected rainfall by different
models for all the 49 stations under different climate change scenarios
were investigated. The monthly MME rainfall was converted to annual
time series and the percentage of change in annual rainfalls projected
under different RCPs compared to the annual mean rainfall of the base
year (1971–2005) for four homogeneous rainfall zones of Sarawak were
prepared (Fig. 8). The changes in rainfall at all the stations within a
homogeneous zone were averaged to prepare the time series for each
zone.
Fig. 8 shows an increase in annual average rainfall in all regions of
Sarawak under almost all RCPs. The average annual rainfall for Zone A,
located in the northern region near the coast and heavily influenced by
NE monsoon, showed an increase in the range of 2.2% to 5.3% of
2910 mm rainfall in the base years under different RCPs during
2070–2099. Rainfall in Zone-B was projected to increase < 1.5% under
RCP2.6, 1.3 to 2.7% under RCP4.5, 1.7 to 3.5% under RCP6.0 and 2.8
to 5.1% under RCP8.5 in the last part (1970–2099) of the century.
Rainfall in Zone-C which receives annual average rainfall of 3531 mm
Z. Sa'adi et al. Atmospheric Research 197 (2017) 446–460

Fig. 8. Changes (%) in average annual rainfall compared to

base year (1971–2005) in (a) Zone A; (b) Zone B; (c) Zone C;
and (c) Zone D of Sarawak under four RCP scenarios.

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

was projected to increase in the range of 0 to 2.9% under different RCPs decrease in the high rainfall zone is supposed to make the rainfall in the
during 2070–2099 compared to base year. The Zone-D, which received region spatially more homogeneous.
annual average rainfall more 4000 mm will experience the least change
in rainfall. Rainfall in this zone is projected to change in the range of
4.2.3. Spatial changes in annual rainfall
− 1.1 to 1.9% under different RCPs at the end of this century. The re-
The spatial distribution of the precipitation changes can be helpful
sults reveal a gradual increase in projected rainfall from the interior of
for better understanding of future rainfall variations in Sarawak. Future
Sarawak (Zone-D) to the coastal region (Zone-A & Zone-B). The higher
changes of annual rainfall were compared to the annual average rainfall
rate of increasing rainfall in the low rainfall zone and less increase or
of base period (1971–2005) to estimate the percentage of change.

456
Z. Sa'adi et al. Atmospheric Research 197 (2017) 446–460

(a)
(b)

(c)

Fig. 9. (a): Percentage of change in annual rainfall during 2010–2039 projected under (b) RCP2.6; (c) RCP4.5; RCP6.0 and (d) RCP8.5 scenarios.
(b): Percentage of change in annual rainfall during 2040–2069 projected under (a) RCP2.6; (b) RCP4.5; (c) RCP6.0; and (d) RCP8.5 scenarios.
(c): Percentage of change in annual rainfall during 2070–2099 projected under (b) RCP2.6; (c) RCP4.5; RCP6.0 and (d) RCP8.5 scenarios.

Fig. 9(a)–(c) shows the spatial variation in percentage of change in
annual rainfall during 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 pro-
jected under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Ordinary
Krigging with exponential semi-variogram was used to prepare the
maps. Generally, the 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 projec-
tions for all RCP scenarios showed the increasing rainfall in the
northern region and along the coast of Sarawak except for the Lower
Rajang basin, Upper Rajang basin, Kayan basin, Upper Trusan and
Lower Baram basin which showed the decreasing rainfall trend.
The GCM ensemble projected the increased and decreased mean of
annual rainfall at 33 stations with the rate of 0.1% to 19.6% and one
station (Lundu) with the rate of − 7.9% to −3.1% respectively during
2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099 under all scenarios. The re-
maining 15 stations showed the inconsistency neither increasing nor
decreasing at the rate of − 5.6% to 5.2%, but mainly showing a trend of
decreasing rainfall during the first three decades (2010–2039) and then
follow by increasing rainfall during the last three decades (2070–2099).
The highest increase is projected at stations located in the northern part
of Sarawak under all scenarios. The models projected the highest in-
crease in annual rainfall at Ukong station and Limbang DID station at
the rate of 4.1%–19.6% and 8.5%–16.3%, respectively under all sce-
narios for a period of 2010–2099. Under all scenarios, the result dic-
tated that more extreme localized event of heavy rainfall located near
the coast of the northern region at the rate of 2.4% to 11.9% for the
period of 2010–2039, 3.3% to 11.9% for the period of 2040–2069 and
3.6% to 19.6% for the period of 2070–2099. On the contrary, extreme
localized decreasing rainfall was expected under all scenarios for the
first three decades (2010–2039) at Upper Baram basin (− 1.4% to
− 5.6%), Lower Rajang basin (0.0% to − 3.2%), Upper Rajang basin
(− 0.4% to − 2.1%) and Kayan basin (−6.7% to −7.9%).
Increasing rate of rainfall was the lowest during the period of
2010–2039 where the localized dry areas were the highest in the region
as mentioned previously. This follows the increasing rate of rainfall
during 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 period where the rainfall becomes

457
Z. Sa'adi et al. Atmospheric Research 197 (2017) 446–460

BCC.CSM1.1 CanESM2 GISS.E2.H HadGEM2.ES

0.004

0.004

0.004

0.004
observed observed observed observed
2010 2010 2010 2010
PDF (1/mm)

PDF (1/mm)

PDF (1/mm)

PDF (1/mm)
2040 2040 2040 2040
2070 2070 2070 2070
0.002

0.002

0.002

0.002
0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000
0 200 600 1000 0 200 600 1000 0 200 600 1000 0 200 600 1000
Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm)

MIROC5 MIROC.ESM MIROC.ESM.CHEM NorESM1.M

0.004

0.004

0.004

0.004
observed observed observed observed
2010 2010 2010 2010
PDF (1/mm)

PDF (1/mm)

PDF (1/mm)

PDF (1/mm)
2040 2040 2040 2040
2070 2070 2070 2070
0.002

0.002

0.002

0.002
0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000
0 200 600 1000 0 200 600 1000 0 200 600 1000 0 200 600 1000
Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm)

NorESM1.ME MPI.ESM.LR MPI.ESM.MR BCC.CSM11.m.

0.004

0.004

0.004

0.004
observed observed observed observed
2010 2010 2010 2010
PDF (1/mm)

PDF (1/mm)

PDF (1/mm)

PDF (1/mm)
2040 2040 2040 2040
2070 2070 2070 2070
0.002

0.002

0.002

0.002
0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000
0 200 600 1000 0 200 600 1000 0 200 600 1000 0 200 600 1000
Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm)

CNRM.CM5 HadGEM2.AO CCSM4 CSIRO.Mk3.6.0

0.004

0.004
0.004

0.004
observed observed observed observed
2010 2010 2010 2010
PDF (1/mm)

PDF (1/mm)

PDF (1/mm)

PDF (1/mm)

2040 2040 2040 2040

2070 2070 2070 2070
0.002

0.002

0.002

0.002
0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0 200 600 1000 0 200 600 1000 0 200 600 1000 0 200 600 1000
Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm)

INMCM4.0 CMCC.CM GFDL.CM3 CMCC.CMS

0.004

0.004

0.004

0.004

observed observed observed observed

2010 2010 2010 2010
PDF (1/mm)

PDF (1/mm)

PDF (1/mm)

PDF (1/mm)

2040 2040 2040 2040

2070 2070 2070 2070
0.002

0.002

0.002

0.002
0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0 200 600 1000 0 200 600 1000 0 200 600 1000 0 200 600 1000
Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm)
Fig. 10. PDFs of projected monthly rainfalls by 20 GCMs at Limbang DID station under RCP8.5 scenario.

more spatially distributed especially in the central region of Sarawak.
The extreme localized rainfall events also become more apparent at the
end of the 21st century, particularly the coastal northern region of
Sarawak.
4.2.4. Projected annual rainfall distributions
PDFs of projected annual rainfalls were constructed for the 20 GCMs
for each station, but only Limbang DID station under RCP8.5 is pre-
sented here to demonstrate distributional differences of monthly rain-
falls between the base period and future projection. A similar dispersion
and shape-distribution like the PDF of rainfall of base period was

458
Z. Sa'adi et al.
observed for all the projected PDFs at Limbang DID station as shown in
Fig. 10. The results showed that higher mode of PDF were constructed
for all three time periods in comparison with the observed historical
data. Similar to observed dispersion indicates a similar variation of
projected monthly rainfalls under all scenarios. However, more ex-
tremes are projected by some GCMs particularly in the last part
(1970–2099) of the century. For example, GCMs CanESM2, CISS.E2H,
HadGEM2.ES, and MIROC5 projected more months with high rainfall
(> 600 mm). This indicates the possibility of more extreme rainfall in
Sarawak with the increase of mean rainfall.
5. Conclusion
The physical basis and science of climate change at the regional
level are of central importance for adaptation where the trend and fu-
ture behavior of extreme events are critical to understanding the im-
pacts of climate change. In this study, 20 GCMs of CMIP5 were used to
project the historical and future precipitations and analyze the changes
in temporal and spatial distributions of precipitation under four dif-
ferent RCP scenarios. It has been found that the downscaling models
based on RF and SVM are capable to properly downscale GCM pre-
cipitation. However, SVM is found to capture the properties of histor-
ical precipitation more accurately. It shows less errors and high effi-
ciency when compared with historical rainfall.
The means of annual rainfalls of the ensembles projection for all the
GCMs under various scenarios show the increase in almost all parts of
Sarawak. For Sarawak, understanding the changes of future rainfall
projection can be easily understood based on the region and basin-
based approach due to the location which has a direct effect for the
monsoon season, especially northeast monsoon that come with heavy
rainfall. Increasing rate of rainfall will be the lowest during the period
of 2010–2039 when the localized dry areas will be the highest at the
Upper Baram basin, Lower Rajang basin, Upper Rajang basin and Kayan
basin. Increased rainfall during 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods will
make the rainfall more spatially distributed in the central region of
Sarawak. On the other hand, an extreme localized rainfall event may be
more apparent in the coastal-northern region of Sarawak. It is expected
that the results obtained from this study will be helpful in impact as-
sessment and adaptation studies in the study region.
Spatial and temporal changes in monthly rainfall of Sarawak are
assessed through the downscaling of GCMs. In the future, daily rainfall
data can be downscaled to assess the changes between northeast
monsoon and southwest monsoon, which mainly governed the char-
acteristics of precipitation for Sarawak. Furthermore, CMIP5 models
and RCP scenarios-based projections of future rainfall should be ana-
lyzed for impact analysis, vulnerability assessment and adaptation
strategy development.
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by Ministry of Education (MoE) Malaysia
and Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) through GUP grant number
Q.J130000.2522.10H36.
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