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WARC Global Ad Trends State of The Industry 2020 21 SAMPLE
WARC Global Ad Trends State of The Industry 2020 21 SAMPLE
1. It will take at least two years to 3. Ad investment is forecast to 5. The majority of ad money will
fully recover, after the events of rise by 6.7% next year, meaning be transacted by machines for
2020 cut $63bn from the global only 59% of this year’s losses the first time next year, yet only
advertising economy. Adspend is will be recouped. A doubling in 15% of marketers list brand safety
set to decline by 10.2% worldwide unemployment is set to limit as one of their biggest concerns,
this year, a 2.1pp downgrade from consumer spending across major falling to 10% for ad fraud.
our May forecast. Excluding US economies, while global trade will
election campaigning, adspend is remain depressed. Advertising 6. In a sign of the times, only the
set to fall by 11.0% – $68.3bn – to investment would need to grow government & non-profit sector
$552.3bn this year. by 4.4% in 2022 to top the peak increased adspend in 2020. A full
recorded in 2019. 17.4% of global losses were within
2. This year’s ad recession is the automotive sector, where
worse than the last in absolute 4. Online video is the only format spend is down by a fifth, or
terms. Further, after accounting to have its prospects upgraded. $11.0bn. The retail sector follows
for inflation and exchange rates, Consumption leapt this year as (-$10.5bn), with travel & tourism
real ad market decline is double nations imposed stay-at-home brands cutting adspend by a third
that of 2009. Traditional media had orders to quell the virus, and this (33.8%). All categories bar
their worst year on record, and lifted CPMs in step. Online video government & non-profit are set to
online failed to grow for the first will lead growth in 2021 (+12.8%), increase spend next year, though
time since the Dotcom crash. following a 7.9% rise this year. only three will top their 2019 total.
WARC DATA Global Ad Trends State of The Industry 2020/21
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020(f)
2021(f)
59% of this year’s losses will be
recouped. Ad investment would
need to grow by 4.5% in 2022 to
top the peak recorded in 2019. Note: Global rates encompass data from 100 markets in WARC’s Adspend Database. Data are net of discounts, include agency commission and exclude
production costs.
SOURCE: WARC Data
© Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved.
WARC DATA Global Ad Trends State of The Industry 2020/21
15%
10%
After adjusting for inflation, and 5%
when measured in purchasing 0%
power parity (PPP) terms – so as -5%
to remove the distorting effects -10%
of exchange rate fluctuations – -15%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020(f)
2021(f)
the global ad market is expected
to contract by 11.4% this year.
This is almost double the 6.1%
dip recorded at the height of the
Great Recession.
15%
Global economic output is set to
fall by 4.4% this year (-0.1% in
10.0% 9.9%
2009), the worst performance in 10% 8.5%
8.3%
a century. Further, the rate of
unemployment is set to double 6.1%
5.4%
across OECD markets this year 5%
per the organisation’s ‘double-
hit’ scenario, whereby a second
outbreak of the virus is seen 0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020(f)
2021(f)
worldwide. This rate is ahead of
the last recession (8.3%) and is
expected to sustain into 2021,
stymying economic recovery. SOURCE: WARC Data, IMF, OECD
© Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved.
WARC DATA Global Ad Trends State of The Industry 2020/21
60 Growth
50
WARC’s Global Marketing Index
(GMI), which has measured 40
trading conditions, staffing 30
levels and marketing budget
growth among practitioners 20
since January 2012, recorded a Decline
10
mild recovery in October after a
Jan-12
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
prolonged period of the worst
results in its history.
Global Europe Asia Pacific The Americas
Already in modest decline since Growth
mid-2019, marketing budgets 70
recorded sharp and sustained 60
cuts across all regions from 50
March of this year – in line with
40
the spread of the virus.
30
Data show that offline media 20
were adversely affected by the 10 Decline
downturn – partly for practical
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jul-20
Oct-20
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
reasons – though online formats
also recorded losses. GMI data
are factored into all of WARC’s
ad investment projections. Note: A value above 50 indicates growth, a value below 50 indicates decline. Larger/smaller values signal severity.
SOURCE: WARC Data Global Marketing Index
© Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved.
WARC DATA Global Ad Trends State of The Industry 2020/21
Africa Asia Pacific Europe Latin America Middle East North America
Consumption-oriented
economies are also set to suffer 0%
from a squeeze on personal
finances in the coming years.
-5%
While all regions are expected to
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%
see their ad markets grow next
year, this is more a reflection of 2020 growth
comparison to a tumultuous
2020 than a marked recovery. Note: Size of bubble denotes size of ad market in 2019 when measured in Purchasing Power Parity.
SOURCE: WARC Data © Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved.
WARC DATA Global Ad Trends
A survey of 1,360 practitioners +67 +61 +53 +38 -7 -7 -22 -40 -50
for WARC’s Marketer’s Toolkit
7% 10% 7% 8%
suggests the current global
3% 6% 19% 19%
downturn will instigate a shift to 3% 22% 25%
11%
performance formats in 2021. 34%
19%
24%
Digital channels are set to 28%
dominate media budgets – the 33% 26%
easier measurement of online 23% 37%
video in real time, combined 54%
with the aforementioned growth
in consumption, means a big
46%
year ahead for online video.
70% 33%
36%
64%
Conversely, the outlook for 59% 29%
traditional channels is net down. 49%
Just one in five (19%) intends to
23%
raise TV spend, compared to 14%
19%
one in four (26%) making cuts. 16% 15%
6% 4%
A balanced media mix is key. Online video Mobile Online search Online display TV Radio / audio OOH Cinema Print
Constrained consumers are
more likely to be omnichannel
shoppers, and an omnichannel SOURCE: WARC Marketer’s Toolkit
campaign can lift ROI by a third. © Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved.
WARC DATA Global Ad Trends 11/20
2020 2021
9.3%
Social media 12.2%
7.9%
Online video 12.8%
3.3%
Online display* 10.4%
-1.9%
Search 7.8%
-10.2%
All media 6.7%
-14.3%
Online classified 6.7%
-16.1%
TV 1.1%
-18.4%
Radio 4.6%
-25.4%
Magazines -0.7%
-25.5%
Newspapers -0.4%
-27.3%
OOH 20.2%
Cinema -46.5% 41.2%
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Note: Data are net of discounts, include agency commission and exclude production costs. Online display includes social media and online video.
SOURCE: WARC Data, Global Ad Trends: State of the Industry 2020/21 © Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved.
WARC DATA Global Ad Trends State of The Industry 2020/21
2020 2021
Note: Data are net of discounts, include agency commission and exclude production costs.
SOURCE: WARC Data, Nielsen Ad Intel, Global Ad Trends: State of the Industry 2020/21
© Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved.
WARC DATA Global Ad Trends
Note: Data are net of discounts, include agency commission and exclude production costs. WARC uses variable exchange rates across all markets and periods.
SOURCE: WARC Data, Adspend Database
© Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved.
WARC DATA Global Ad Trends 11/20
40% 20%
30%
10%
20%
10%
0%
0%
-10%
-10%
-20%
-30% -20%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020(f)
2021(f)
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020(f)
2021(f)
Note: Data are net of discounts, include agency commission and exclude production costs. Headline ad investment growth is in nominal local currency, consumer spend in real local currency.
SOURCE: WARC Data, CEASA, IAB Australia, OMA, thinkTV, Commercial Radio Australia, Nielsen Ad Intel, OECD © Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved.
WARC DATA Global Ad Trends 11/20
2020(f) 2021(f)
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
Total Offline Total TV Radio Newspapers OOH Magazines Cinema Online Total Online Online Search Online
video display classified
Note: Data are net of discounts, include agency commission and exclude production costs. Headline figures are nominal local currency.
SOURCE: WARC Data, CEASA, IAB Australia, OMA, thinkTV, Commercial Radio Australia, Nielsen Ad Intel © Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved.
WARC DATA
DATA Global Ad Trends
2020(f) 2021(f)
Soft drinks
Alcoholic drinks
Automotive
Financial services
Total
Retail
Food
Note: Data are net of discounts, include agency commission and exclude production costs. Data are for display formats only, and exclude search,
classified and other non-display formats. Data are in local currency.
SOURCE: WARC Data, Nielsen Ad Intel
WARC DATA Global Ad Trends 11/20
Alcoholic drinks Automotive Business & industrial Clothing & accessories Financial services Food
Household & domestic Leisure & entertainment Media & publishing Pharma & healthcare Retail Soft drinks
Technology & electronics Telecoms & utilities Toiletries & cosmetics Transport & tourism
40% 120%
20% 100%
Year-on-year % change
Year-on-year % change
80%
0%
60%
-20%
40%
-40%
20%
-60% 0%
-80% -20%
-500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 -50 0 50 100 150 200
Absolute growth (A$ millions) Absolute growth (A$ millions)
Note: Data are net of discounts, include agency commission and exclude production costs. Data are for display formats only, and exclude search, classified
and other non-display formats. Size of bubble denotes size of sector. SOURCE: WARC Data, Nielsen Ad Intel © Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved.
WARC DATA Global Ad Trends 11/20
10%
8%
5%
3%
0%
-3%
-5%
-8%
-10%
TV Online display Online video Radio Outdoor Newspapers Magazines
Note: CPM is All adults. Print is averaged across newspapers and magazines. 2015 inflation for magazines is unavailable.
SOURCE: WARC Data, OMD, WFA, ECI Media Management © Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved.
WARC DATA Global Ad Trends
2019 2019 vs 2018 2019 vs 2010 % share of 2019 vs 2018 2020(f) 2021(f)
Nominal 10-year CAGR
(PPP millions) % change % change global adspend PP difference % change % change
Note: Data are net of discounts, include agency commission and exclude production costs. WARC uses variable exchange rates across all markets and periods.
SOURCE: WARC Data, Adspend Database
© Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved.
WARC DATA Global Ad Trends
Note: Data are net of discounts, include agency commission and exclude production costs. WARC uses variable exchange rates across all markets and periods.
SOURCE: WARC Data, Adspend Database
© Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved.
WARC DATA
WARC harmonises all data to enable the WARC aggregates data from over 100 WARC meticulously verifies all data prior to WARC evaluates trends drawing from over
most accurate cross-market comparison reputable sources, each the expert in their publication so that our clients can trust and 40 years’ experience of monitoring the
possible. For this research, WARC has own market and field. Our unique position depend upon the information we provide. global advertising industry. We are proud to
collaborated with Nielsen to build a measure within the industry allows us to work Each figure tells its own story, and every one present an objective, independent, and
of net advertising investment data across 19 directly with trade bodies, media owners, can be traced back to source with its holistic view of the media and marketing
product categories. We have taken a research companies and ad and media methodology clearly provided. landscape using the expertise we have
‘bottom up’ approach, working from the agencies. This approach enables our collated over this time.
macro level to regroup and recalculate new clients to draw from a comprehensive Unlike other companies, WARC does not rely
gross totals across major categories. Then, database of statistics which inform smarter solely on modelled or estimated data. Instead,
we have harmonised these totals using the media strategy and planning every day. we go further to ensure that the data we
net ad revenue data we receive directly from publish are robust and stand up to scrutiny.
the industry.
WARC DATA
DATA Global Ad Trends
All data referred to in this report are drawn from WARC’s Adspend
Database, and are correct as of 16th November 2020.
WARC DATA
DATA Global Ad Trends
For the purpose of this report, global totals have been upweighted to represent
the entirety of global ad investment monitored in WARC’s Adspend Database,
inclusive of non-display formats such as classified and search. Internet display
includes social media, online video, online audio and other display formats
monitored by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB), while other media include
sponsorship and branded content where applicable.
Fourteen companies participated in total in the latest round of WARC Data clients can access the latest ECI report here.
forecasts (2019): Accenture, AuditStar, Cortex Media, DentsuAegis,
DG2 Worldwide Group, Ebiquity, ECI Media Management, Havas,
MAGNA GLOBAL (IPG MediaBrands), Media Path, Omnicom Media
Group, PricewaterhouseCoopers, R3 and Zenith Media.
cinzia.petio@warc.com
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