Aven CH251.

tex 17/5/2007 11: 20 Page 1991

Risk, Reliability and Societal Safety – Aven & Vinnem (eds)

© 2007 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-0-415-44786-7

Risk analysis of oil and gas pipelines subjected to CO2 corrosion

Maneesh Singh
University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway
AGR EmiTeam, Sandnes, Norway

Tore Markeset
University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway

ABSTRACT: The corrosion of pipelines for transporting oil and gas, significantly increases the possibility
of their accidental release. Hence, it is important to be able to accurately predict the degree of corrosion and
corresponding risk of leakage through the corroded pipeline. However, the degree of corrosion and corresponding
probability of failure (leakage) are difficult to model, because, firstly, the mechanism of corrosion and subsequent
failure are complex processes that have not been completely understood; and secondly, there is a lack of data,
due to the fact that most of the time the plant operators are unable maintain an accurate record of the operating
conditions and inspection data. This paper discusses various types of corrosion models; the uncertainties involved
in calculating the rate of corrosion; and the capability of three different approaches – deterministic, probabilistic
and fuzzy logic – in handling those uncertainties.

1 INTRODUCTION H2 S, microbes, chlorides and sulphates. Depending

The internal corrosion of oil and gas carrying pipelines
is an important maintenance issue. Recently it has been
brought into the public limelight by the spillage and
partial shut-down of the BP’s pipelines at the Prud-
hoe Bay, Alaska. While this can be regarded as the
largest isolated accident to come to the public notice
in the recent years, it is alleged that the corrosion
in pipelines is an endemic problem of the industry.
This is because most of the major installations in the
world were constructed in 1970s and over the years
the pipelines have corroded due to poor maintenance.
Hence, the understanding of the corrosion in pipelines
and its prevention is of vital interest to the industry to
prevent such incidences.
Since corrosion can cause severely damage
pipelines resulting in accidents, its inspection, predic-
tion and control has attracted considerable attention
over the last few decades extensive research has been
carried out to: (a) understand corrosion mechanisms;
(b) develop mathematical models to predict the rate of
corrosion; (c) develop reliable methods for the inspec-
tion of pipelines; (d) develop methods to reduce the
rate of corrosion; and (e) develop maintenance strategy
for mitigating the effects of corrosion in the pipelines.
Yet, in spite of extensive R&D, the requirement for
research in all these areas still persists.
The corrosion of pipelines can take place due to a
number of factors like the presence of CO2 , humidity,
upon the existing plant condition, while any of these
factors may be the cause of corrosion, in general CO2
is the most common factor. This is because CO2 is
invariably present in the multiphase mixture of oil-
water-gas in pipelines and it dissolves in water to form
carbonic acid that is corrosive to the pipelines. The
CO2 corrosion is especially common in the mature
fields. This is because in the early life of the field the
oil is pumped out of the well by the pressure exerted by
gas, but in the later phase oil is displaced by pumping
large volumes of water into the well; hence there is
more flow of the corrosive acid through the pipelines
in the matured fields.
While it is accepted that the presence of dissolved
CO2 in water greatly enhances the corrosion rate in car-
bon steel pipes during the multi-phase flow, the precise
corrosion mechanism has not been fully understood.
This is due to the complexity of the corrosion mecha-
nism and difficulties in carrying out field trials. This
lack of understanding poses considerable difficulties
in developing an effective pipeline integrity manage-
ment program which aims to maximise the availability
of pipeline assets at an acceptable cost without com-
promising on the health, safety, environment and
legislative requirements (Lawson, 2005).
Development of an effective maintenance program
requires a comprehensive risk-based inspection and
maintenance strategy. Unfortunately, the calculation of
risk, defined as the product of the probability of failure

1991
Aven CH251.tex 17/5/2007 11: 20 Page 1992

and its impact, is a daunting task because of the uncer-

tainties involved in the calculations. This is because
in order to calculate the risk of failure, a plant oper-
ator needs to know the degree and rate of corrosion,
the effect of corrosion on the integrity of the structure,
and the consequence of a leakage. All of these steps
are fraught with uncertainties, forcing the operator to
resort to subjective analysis. Hence, an operator would
appreciate a mathematical tool for calculating the risk
of corrosion failure, provided the tool is robust enough
to handle the uncertainties involved in the calculation.
This paper discusses some mathematical models for
calculating rate of corrosion and suitable approaches
for handling uncertainties in the calculations.

2 TYPES OF MATHEMATICAL CO2

CORROSION MODELS

The mechanism of the reaction between CO2 and iron

to form Fe2 CO3 is a very complex phenomenon which
involves dissolution of CO2 in water, transport of CO2
from the bulk to the surface of the metal, reaction
between the CO2 and the metal and finally transport
of products into the bulk. All these steps are highly Figure 1. Generalized flow chart for the semi-empirical
complex and the rate of each step depends on a num- models.
ber of parameters. To describe it in an over-simplified
form; in the first step the dissolved CO2 reacts with
the protective hydroxide film on the carbon steel sur-
calculating the rate of corrosion based on pH, shear
face to form ferrous carbonate. The FeCO3 that forms
stress and temperature. Their work has been extended
has limited solubility and precipitates on the surface
further by a number of researchers (Dayalan et al.,
of the metal, forming a scale over the pipe surface.
1995; Dugstad et al., 1994; Gunaltun, 1996; Srini-
The morphology of the precipitated FeCO3 depends
vasan & Kane, 1996; Zhang et al., 1997). All of these
upon environmental conditions such as temperature,
models exploit the fundamental knowledge of the parts
flow rate, pH, and presence of dissolved oxygen. As
of the corrosion process that are well understood and
the amount of iron carbonate precipitate increases,
use experimentally determined empirical correlations
the density and thickness of the protective layer also
wherever there is a gap in knowledge or where the
increases. Thus, the FeCO3 can form a stable protec-
implementation of the knowledge is difficult. In order
tive layer which may passivate the surface and reduce
to calculate the final corrosion rate most of the mod-
the corrosion rate by forming a diffusion barrier for
els follow a general flowchart (Figure 1). These models
the species involved in the reaction; or under aggres-
differ from each other mostly in the method adopted
sive conditions the precipitated Fe2 CO3 can form an
for the calculation of the pH, shear stress, etc. An
instable, weak and porous layer that is prone to disso-
example of semi-empirical models is the NORSOK
lution. Under the latter conditions the corrosion takes
STANDARD M-506.
place when the removal rate exceeds the precipitation
The fluid in the pipes is a multiphase system and the
rate (Heuer & Stubbins, 1999; Sun et al., 2004; van
fluid flow is difficult to model. In the NORSOK M-506
Hunnik et al., 1996).
the wall shear stress is calculated using temperature,
In order to predict the rate of corrosion a number of
pressure, liquid flow rate, gas flow rate, water cut and
models have been propounded. These models can be
the diameter of pipe. For more accurate calculation it
classified into two types – semi-empirical models and
is possible to provide roughness of pipe, compressibil-
mechanistic models.
ity of gas, specific gravity of gas relative to air, water
density, oil density, gas density, water viscosity, oil vis-
2.1 Semi-empirical models
cosity, gas viscosity, water cut at inversion point, and
Most of these models are based on the pioneering work maximum relative liquid viscosity. A detailed analysis
done by de Waard et al. (de Waard & Lotz, 1993; of the multiphase gas-water-oil system has been devel-
de Waard et al., 1991; de Waard & Milliams, 1975). oped by Nesic et al. (Nesic et al., 2005; Nesic et al.,
Based on the research, they have given correlations for 2004a).

1992
Aven CH251.tex 17/5/2007 11: 20 Page 1993
Various models have been proposed for the calcula-
tion of pH. This step is required because on exposure
to air the fluid changes its pH value, hence the labora-
tory analytical value does not reflect the true pH of the
fluid inside the pipe. The most common ones are by:
• de Waald,
• Oddo & Tomson (1982) – used by Gunaltun and
NORSOK M-506,
• Bonis & Crolet (1987) – used by Predict™ (Srini-
vasan & Kane, 1996).
The calculation has been generalized by showing
that the combined effects of CO2 partial pressure, ionic
strength, temperature and initial bicarbonate ion con-
centration may be described by a single variable pH
(Herce et al., 1995). This pH can then be related to
the corrosion rate under a variety of conditions. A
more elaborate method of calculating pH has been
propounded by Zhang et al. (1997).
Using the values of the pH, CO2 partial pressure,
shear stress and temperature, the initial corrosion rate
is calculated. Depending upon the requirements the
effect of other parameters like H2 S, inhibitors, chloride
and sulfate may be included in the calculation of the
final corrosion rate (Srinivasan & Kane, 1996).
These models are quite simple and flexible in use,
and hence are models of choice for the plant operators.
However, since these models are not based on funda-
mental theories, they do not shed light on the actual
corrosion mechanism.
2.2 Mechanistic models
Mechanistic models describe the corrosion process
based mostly on the fundamental principles, hence
they have a strong theoretical background. They take
into account details of the multi-phase fluid flow, trans-
port of reactants and products, anodic dissolution of
metals and of cathodic reduction of oxidants. Accord-
ing to these models, the overall corrosion process takes
place in four steps (Dayalan et al., 1995):
• Dissolution of carbon dioxide in water to form
different reactive species which take part in the
chemical reaction.
• The transport of the reactive species from the bulk
flow to the metal surface.
• The electrochemical reaction (anodic and cathodic)
that takes place at the surface of the metal.
• The diffusion of the products from the metal surface
to the bulk liquid.
The corrosion rate is governed by the rate-
determining step – kinetics or the transport. Different
models differ in their approach in the treatment of
the different steps. Extensive work has been done at
the Institute for Energy Technology, Oslo (Nyborg
et al., 2000) and the Corrosion in Multiphase Systems
1993
Center, Ohio University (Nesic et al., 2005; Nesic
et al., 1995; Nesic et al., 2004a; Nesic et al., 2004b;
Vitse et al., 2003; Wang, 1997; Zhang et al., 1997) in
developing these models.
Since these models are based more on fundamen-
tal understanding of the complete corrosion process,
hence, they have the potential to accurately predict the
corrosion rate. The drawbacks of these models include
complex modeling work, need for complete funda-
mental understanding of the individual steps of the
process, need for extensive data and difficulty in incor-
porating the effect of morphology of the deposited
film on the protectiveness. While these models are
able to predict laboratory results with high accuracy,
they face problems during implementation in actual
field condition where the operating conditions vary
considerably.
3 DIFFICULTIES IN MODELING CORROSION
PROCESS
While a number of mathematical models have been
developed, unfortunately none of them is able to reli-
ably predict the rate of corrosion over a wide range
of conditions. A number of reasons are responsible
for the inaccuracies in the prediction, these include
.(Edwards et al., 1996; Gunaltun, 1996; Srinivasan &
Kane, 1996):
• Poor understanding of the corrosion mechanism.
• Difficulty in modeling multiphase fluid flow.
• Lack of reliable fundamental data for kinetic, ther-
modynamic, fluid flow, heat and mass transfer
calculations.
• Large number of inter-related variables affecting the
corrosion process.
• Effect of secondary processes like formation of
scales, deposition of wax, inhibitor efficiency, etc.
• Frequent variations in the operating parameters of
plant.
• Low accuracy of field data.
• Poor record of operating conditions.
• Metallurgical variations in material of construction.
• Incomplete understanding of the behavior of corro-
sion inhibitors.
4 UNCERTAINITIES IN MODELING CO2
CORROSION
Due to the problems associated with the modeling
of CO2 corrosion, a number of uncertainties are
introduced in the calculations. Most often these uncer-
tainties make a precise model useless or difficult to
implement. Thus, a good model should be robust
enough to handle the uncertainties, yet be flexible
Aven CH251.tex 17/5/2007 11: 20 Page 1994
enough to implement easily. Luckily, for developing
a risk-based maintenance program, it is not important
to accurately model the whole corrosion process which
would be able to predict the rate of corrosion over a
wide range of conditions. Instead the requirement is
of a practical model which is simple to use, flexible
enough to be modified according to the requirements
of different sections of the plant, and able to incor-
porate field data. According to Gunaltun (1996): The
corrosion rate cannot be predicted with high accuracy.
Such a prediction is neither required nor possible. Only
the “order of magnitude” of the corrosion rate has a
practical meaning.
4.1 Causes of uncertainties in the CO2
corrosion models
While using a corrosion rate model, the uncertainties
may be introduced due to:
1. The structure of the model. The highly complicated
nature of the corrosion process makes even the most
advanced mechanistic models inaccurate. Hence,
based on certain assumptions every model simpli-
fies the effect of individual steps or ignores some
steps altogether, resulting invariably in a number of
uncertainties.
2. The data used for input and/or model parameters.
Since it is difficult (if not impossible) to collect data
from an actual plant due to the difficulties in mon-
itoring and recording, most often the data used by
various models is obtained from the limited num-
ber of experiments carried out in laboratory under
simplified conditions. This lack of plant data is one
of the major sources of uncertainties.
3. The numerical approximation. Once the concep-
tual model has been prepared, it is often difficult
to mathematically solve the equations. Thus the
uncertainties are introduced depending upon the
simplifications, boundary conditions and accuracy
of the numerical methods used in calculation.
4.2 Types of uncertainties in the CO2 corrosion
models
Depending upon the causes of uncertainties, three
different types of uncertainties can take place:
A. Uncertainties when the variations are quantified
and available for proper statistical analysis.
B. Uncertainties when the variations are random, not
quantified or unavailable.
C. Uncertainties due to unknown process or mecha-
nism arising mostly due to lack of knowledge.
Hence, while selecting an appropriate methodology,
it is essential to consider the uncertainty that can be
tolerated or dealt with using an appropriate uncertainty
approach. Currently, the two most commonly used
1994
approaches that are applied to assist in the handing
of the uncertainties are:
• Probabilistic approach: This approach is useful
when the fluctuations in the data are quantified.
Hence, it is useful for treating uncertainties of Type
A (Edwards et al., 1996; Melchers, 2001).
• Fuzzy logic approach: This approach is preferred
when the quantification of the uncertainty is not
available but is described in imprecise, subjective
or linguistic terms. Hence, it is useful for treating
uncertainties of Type B and C (Ross, 2004).
Since, the way the uncertainties have been handled
and the interpretations drawn will have an impact on
the final decisions taken, the source and extent of
uncertainty should be made explicit and the impli-
cations should be transparent. It is often helpful to
discuss alternative scenarios and interpretation of the
calculations.
5 PROBABILISTIC APPROACH FOR CO2
CORROSION MODELING
The probabilistic approach combines a CO2 corrosion
model with the probability density distribution of the
available data regarding the structural and operation
parameters to predict the probability of failure. Hence,
while it cannot handle the uncertainties arising due to
the CO2 corrosion model (Cause 1) itself, it can take
into account the variations in the operating conditions,
like gas-liquid flow rates, density, viscosity, tempera-
ture, CO2 content, pressure (Cause 2). Hence, unlike
deterministic modeling which gives crisp values, this
method gives the probability of reaching the limit
state (degree of corrosion leading to leakage) at any
stage during the lifetime of the pipeline (Ahammed,
1997; Ahammed, 1998; Ahammed & Melchers, 1995;
Ahammed & Melchers, 1996; Ahammed & Melch-
ers, 1997; Edwards et al., 1996; Hellevik et al., 1999;
Lawson, 2005).
As an example, based on the NORSOK M-506, a
probabilistic calculation for a pipeline was carried out.
Table 1 shows the data used for the calculation. This
data includes the type of distribution, mean value and
coefficient of variation (COV – ratio of standard devi-
ation and mean). The purpose of the example was to
study the methodology. The data was chosen arbitrar-
ily and the effect of corrosion inhibitor was not taken
into account.
In order to define the failure event (Fi ) and its prob-
ability it was necessary to define the failure or limit
state function. In this example the failure function was
defined as the mean corrosion depth of 16.5 mm with
COV 0.1. The calculations were carried out using the
First Order Reliability Method (FORM) by PROBAN
(DNV) (Tvedt, 2006).
Aven CH251.tex 17/5/2007 11: 20 Page 1995

Table 1. Variables with corresponding probability distribu-

tions used in the example.

Mean
Var. Description Distribution Value COV

D Diameter of Normal 0.508 0.002

pipe (m)
P Total system Normal 12 0.01
pressure (bar)
QG Volumetric flow rate Normal 200000 0.1
of Gas (m3 /day)
QL Volumetric flow rate Normal 17500 0.1
of Liquid (m3 /day)
T Temperature (◦ C) Normal 55 0.15
k Pipe roughness (m) Lognormal 5 × 10−5 1
µO Viscosity of oil Normal 0.0011 0.1
(Ns/m2 )
µG Viscosity of gas Normal 0.00003 0.1
(Ns/m2 )
ρO Density of oil Normal 850 0.1
(kg/m3 )
ρW Density of water Normal 1024 0.01
(kg/m3 )
φ Water cut (%) Normal 40 0.5
PCO2 CO2 partial pressure Normal 0.12 0.1
pH Normal 4.5 0.1

Figures 2 and 3 show some results of deterministic

and probabilistic assessment of a pipeline corrosion.
The figures show that, as expected, the degree of
corrosion increases with time and is dependent upon
the temperature and CO2 partial pressure. According
to the deterministic calculation, 16.5 mm corrosion is
not reached even after 8 years. On the other hand,
according to the probabilistic calculation, by setting
an acceptable limit for the probability of failure of
10−2 , there may be a possibility of failure after 7 years
if the fluid temperature is maintained about 30◦ C and
after only 5 years if it is maintained about 60◦ C.
At this stage it should be remembered that the cal- Figure 2. Effect of temperature on the size of corrosion and
culation does not give “actual” probability of failure, probability of failure.
rather it only gives “as calculated” probability of fail- CONSTANTS: See Table 1.
ure. Hence, while the results give an indication of the
“reliability” of the structure, regular inspection should
be carried out and the operator should not be lured into method is especially suitable for the modeling of
a false sense of security. The advantage of the exercise corrosion in pipes because:
is that it gives a rough indication of the state of the • It is difficult to correctly measure the degree of
pipeline and a documentation for future reference. corrosion, because the corrosion often takes place
in the form of scattered pits and grooves. Due to
the imprecise way of measurement and interpreta-
6 FUZZY LOGIC MODELING OF tion of data, it is not practical to describe degree
CORROSION RATE of corrosion in a precise manner. Hence, it is more
reasonable to describe it to accommodate “degree of
Fuzzy Logic (Ross, 2004; Zadeh, 1973; Zadeh, 1975a; membership” on a continuous interval [0, 1], where
Zadeh, 1975b; Zadeh, 1975c), is a mathematical way the endpoints 0 and 1 conform to (absolutely non-
for representing vagueness in the real world. This corroded) to (absolutely corroded) respectively.

1995
Aven CH251.tex 17/5/2007 11: 20 Page 1996
Figure 3. Effect of CO2 partial pressure on the size of cor-
rosion and probability of failure.
CONSTANTS: See Table 1.
• Given the uncertainties involved in the calculation
of risk, maintenance scheduling does not depend
upon the accurate degree of corrosion. It suffices to
mention roughly the extent of corrosion in impre-
cise but easily understandable terms such as: “highly
corroded”, “less corroded” or in approximate values
in order of magnitudes.
• In a real plant the operating conditions like pH, tem-
perature, pressure and fluid velocity, vary over a
range. Hence, most of the time the plant operators
are unable to maintain an accurate data of operating
conditions and degree of corrosion and the record is
maintained in an approximate or linguistic fashion.
1996
Accuracy of prediction of any complex model falls
with the increase in the number of variables and the
accuracy of input variables. Hence, it is advantageous
to model individual components with the variables
within the range it is expected to operate in. As an
example, the fuzzy logic modeling of the rate of cor-
rosion was carried out for a pipeline based on the
NORSOK Standard M-506. The model was developed
for the following ranges:
40 ≤ Temperature (◦ C) ≤80
25 ≤ Shear Stress (Pa) ≤ 125
30 ≤ Pressure (bar) ≤70
2 ≤ CO2 Partial Pressure (bar) ≤ 6
3.5 ≤ pH ≤ 6.5
The input ranges were divided into three linguis-
tic membership functions as shown in Figure 4. For
most of the functions triangular fuzzy sets were used
because they were the most common and easy to
use, also because there was no justification for using
more complex functions, like sigmoidal, Gaussian,
bell, etc. The shear stress was calculated accord-
ing to the equations given in the NORSOK M-506.
This variable was selected because it incorporated
a number of other variables like velocity of multi-
phase fluid system, composition of the gas/water/oil
system, wetability, viscosities, densities, pipe rough-
ness, etc. The low and high pH was represented
by piece-wise linear function because by trial-and-
error it was found to correlate more accurately
with the NORSOK model. The output was divided
into five membership functions (Figure 4). Using
equations given in the NORSOK Standard M-506,
243 (3Temperature × 3Shear Stress × 3Pressure × 3CO2 Pressure
× 3pH ) linguistic rules were generated correlating the
input variables with the output. For example:
RULE 1 : IF co2_pressure is low_co2_pressure
AND temperature is low_temperature
AND pH IS low_pH
AND pressure is low_pressure
AND shear is low_shear
THEN corrosion IS low_corrosion;
Depending upon the input value, the membership
of each subset was subscribed. The results of different
rules were accumulated together to obtain an over-
all result. This fuzzy information was then converted
to crisp value by calculating the Centre of Gravity
centroid of the accumulated membership functions.
Figures 5 and 6 show the examples of the calcu-
lations carried out deterministically and using fuzzy
logic. The figures show a reasonably good match
between the two. Hence, it seems that the fuzzy logic
model may be able to predict the corrosion rates rea-
sonably well and it can also take into account the
vagueness in the available input data. At this stage it
is worth remembering that since the model is devel-
oped based on the deterministic model, it can never
Aven CH251.tex 17/5/2007 11: 20 Page 1997
Figure 4. Qualitative scales for inputs and output.
Figure 5. Effect of temperature and pH on the corrosion rate
as calculated deterministically and using fuzzy logic.
CONSTANTS: CO2 Partial Pressure = 5 bar; Total Gas
Pressure = 50 bar; Shear Stress = 100 Pa.
replace the deterministic model. Rather its strength lies
in its ability to give an approximate result based on an
approximate input values, something which cannot be
handle deterministically.
7 COMPARISON BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC,
PROBABILISTIC AND FUZZY LOGIC
APPROACHES
All the three types of approaches have their own
strengths and weaknesses. The deterministic approach
has the advantage of simplicity in understanding and
application. Its major weakness lies in its requirement
of correct, precise and non-fluctuating data. Accord-
ing to the NORSOK Standard M-506 “Corrosion
rate calculation, is only one element in a material
selection process. Other essential factors are uncer-
tainty in input data for corrosion rate calculations,
construction and commissioning conditions, consider-
ation of normal and upset operating conditions, actual
1997
Figure 6. Effect of shear stress and pH on the corrosion rate
as calculated deterministically and using fuzzy logic.
CONSTANTS: CO2 Partial Pressure = 5 bar; Total Gas
Pressure = 50 bar; Temperature = 60◦ C.
corrosivity of produced fluids, scale, wax, inhibitor
efficiency and geometry of corrosion attacks. These
and other factors may influence the actual corro-
sion rates considerably, and be more important than
any uncertainty in the corrosion rate calculation.”
Unfortunately the deterministic model cannot handle
any of these uncertainties.
The probabilistic approach bases its calculations on
the deterministic model, but is able to account for a
number of uncertainties in the input data, provided
the range of fluctuations in the data is known. Its dis-
advantages lie in the complexity of the calculation
procedure and its need for well defined probability
density distributions for individual parameters.
The fuzzy logic approach is also based on the deter-
ministic model, but its strength lies in its ability to
handle imprecise vague data. It can also allow an inte-
gration of mathematical calculation with subjective
qualitative knowledge for developing a knowledge-
based model. Its weakness lies in the fact that it only
gives an approximate answer even when the input data
is precisely known.
8 CONCLUSIONS
The development of an effective risk-based inspection
and maintenance program requires a reliable method
for calculation of probability of failure and the con-
sequence of failure. The probability of failure of a
pipeline carrying oil and gas is dependent upon the
degree of CO2 corrosion, hence, requires a reliable
method for calculating the rate of corrosion. Unfortu-
nately, since the corrosion of pipelines is a complex
Aven CH251.tex 17/5/2007 11: 20 Page 1998
process which is not amenable to simple modeling
and the field data required for modeling is normally
not available, it is difficult to accurately predict the
rate of corrosion. While a number of models have
been proposed to model CO2 corrosion, they all suffer
from a number of weaknesses. This paper discusses
the problems of modeling CO2 corrosion and some
possible approaches for handling the uncertainties.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors are grateful to Ole Jørgen Melleby and
Ole Tom Vårdal, AGR EmiTeam (www.agr.no), for
their guidance and support.
REFERENCES
Ahammed, M. (1997). Prediction of remaining strength of
corroded pressurised pipelines. International Journal of
Pressure Vessels and Piping, 71, 213–217.
Ahammed, M. (1998). Probabilistic estimation of remain-
ing life of a pipeline in the presence of active corrosion
defects. International Journal of Pressure Vessels and
Piping, 75, 321–329.
Ahammed, M. & Melchers, R.E. (1995). Probabilistic anal-
ysis of pipelines subjected to pitting corrosion leaks.
Engineering Structures, 17, 74–80.
Ahammed, M. & Melchers, R.E. (1996). Reliability estima-
tion of pressurised pipelines subject to localised corrosion
defects. International Journal of Pressure Vessels and
Piping, 69, 267–272.
Ahammed, M. & Melchers, R.E. (1997). Probabilistic
analysis of underground pipelines subject to com-
bined stresses and corrosion. Engineering Structures, 19,
988–994.
Dayalan, E., Vani, G., Shadley, J.R., Shirazi, S.A. & Rybicki,
E.F. (1995). Modeling CO2 corrosion of carbon steel in
pipe flow. In CORROSION ’95, Paper No. 118. NACE
International.
de Waard, C. & Lotz, U. (1993). Prediction of CO2 corrosion
of carbon steel. In CORROSION ’93, Paper No. 69. NACE
International.
de Waard, C., Lotz, U. & Milliams, D.E. (1991). Predictive
model for CO2 corrosion engineering in wet natural gas
pipelines. Corrosion, December, 978.
de Waard, C. & Milliams, D.E. (1975). Carbonic acid
corrosion of carbon steel. Corrosion, 31, 177.
Dugstad, A., Lunde, L. & Videm, K. (1994). Parametric study
of CO2 corrosion of carbon steel. In CORROSION ’94,
Paper No. 14. NACE International.
Edwards, J.D., Sydberger, T. & Mork, K.J. (1996). Reliability
based design of CO2 -corrosion control. In CORROSION
’96, Paper No. 29. NACE International.
Gunaltun, Y.M. (1996). Combining research and field data
for corrosion rate prediction. In CORROSION ’96, Paper
No. 27. NACE International.
Hellevik, S.G., Langen, I. & Sorensen, J.D. (1999). Cost
optimal reliability based inspection and replacement
1998
planning of piping subjected to CO2 corrosion. Inter-
national Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, 76,
527–538.
Herce, J.A., Wright, E.J., Efird, K.D., Boros, J.A. &
Hailey, T.G. (1995). Effects of solution chemistry and flow
on the corrosion of carbon steel in sweet production. In
CORROSION ’95, Paper No. 111. NACE International.
Heuer, J.K. & Stubbins, J.F. (1999). An XPS characterization
of FeCO3 films from CO2 corrosion. Corrosion Science,
41, 1231–1243.
Lawson, K. (2005). Pipeline corrosion risk analysis – an
assessment of deterministic and probabilistic methods.
Anti-corrosion Methods and Materials, 52, 3–10.
Melchers, R.E. (2001). Structural reliability analysis and
prediction. John Wiley & Sons.
Nesic, S., Cai, J. & Lee, K.-L.J. (2005). A multiphase flow
and internal corrosion prediction model for mild steel
pipelines. In CORROSION 2005, Paper No. 05556. NACE
International.
Nesic, S., Pots, B.F.M., Postlethwaite, J. & Thevenot, N.
(1995). Superposition of diffusion and chemical reaction
controlled limiting currents – application to CO2 corro-
sion. Journal of Corrosion Science and Engineering, 1,
Paper 3.
Nesic, S., Wang, S., Cai, J. & Xiao, Y. (2004a). Integrated
CO2 corrosion – multiphase flow model. In CORROSION
2004, Paper No. 04626. NACE International.
Nesic, S., Xiao,Y. & Pots, B.F.M. (2004b). A quasi 2-D local-
ized corrosion model. In CORROSION 2004, Paper No.
04628. NACE International.
Nyborg, R., Andersson, P. & Nordsveen, M. (2000). Imple-
mentation of CO2 corrosion models in a three-phase fluid
flow model. In CORROSION 2000, Paper No. 00048.
NACE International.
Oddo, J.E. & Tomson, M.B. (1982). Simplified calculation of
pH and CaCO3 saturation at high temperatures and pres-
sures in brine solutions. Journal of Petroleum Technology,
July, 1583–1590.
Ross, T.J. (2004). Fuzzy LogicWith EngineeringApplications.
John Wiley & Sons Ltd.: Chichester.
Srinivasan, S. & Kane, R.D. (1996). Prediction of corrosivity
of CO2 /H2 S production environments. In CORROSION
’96, Paper No. 11. NACE International.
Sun, W., Chokshi, K., Nesic, S. & Gulino, D.A. (2004).
A study of protective iron carbonate scale forma-
tion in CO2 corrosion. In AIChE Annual Meeting,
Unpublished.
Tvedt, L. (2006). Proban – probabilistic analysis. Structural
Safety, 28, 150–163.
van Hunnik, E.W.J., Pots, B.F.M. & Hendriksen, E.L.J.A.
(1996). The formation of protective FeCO3 corrosion
product layers in CO2 corrosion. In CORROSION ’96,
Paper No. 6. NACE International.
Vitse, F., Nesic, S., Gunaltun, Y., de Torreben, D.L. &
Duchet-Suchaux, P. (2003). Mechanistic model for
the prediction of top-of-the-line corrosion risk. In
CORROSION 2003, Paper No. 03633. NACE
International.
Wang, Y. (1997). Flow-dependent corrosion in turbulent pipe
flow. In Chemical Engineering, Vol. Ph.D. University of
Saskatoon, Canada: Saskatoon.
Zadeh, L.A. (1973). Outline of a new approach to the anal-
ysis of complex systems and decision processes. IEEE
Aven CH251.tex 17/5/2007 11: 20 Page 1999

Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics SMC-3,
28–44.
Zadeh, L.A. (1975a). The concept of a linguistic variable and
its applications to approximate reasoning-I. Information
Sciences, 8, 199–249.
Zadeh, L.A. (1975b). The concept of a linguistic variable and
its applications to approximate reasoning-II. Information
Sciences, 8, 301–357.
Zadeh, L.A. (1975c). The concept of a linguistic variable and
its applications to approximate reasoning-III. Information
Sciences, 9, 43–80.
Zhang, R., Gopal, M. & Jepson, W.P. (1997). Development of
a mechanistic model for predicting corrosion rate in mul-
tiphase oil/water/gas flows. In CORROSION ’97, Paper
No. 601. NACE International.

1999
Aven CH251.tex 17/5/2007 11: 20 Page 2000