Impact of climate change on

Himalayan Forest
Ecosystems
 Forests and climate change
1. Deforestation and land use change contribute
to CO2 emissions
– IPCC; 20% of CO2 emissions
2. Forests provide a large potential to mitigate
climate change
- IPCC; 15 – 20% of CO2 emissions
3. Forests will be impacted by climate change
and are highly vulnerable to climate impacts
- Need for adaptation to enable forests to cope
with climate change
-------------------------------------------------------------
Forest sector is critical in addressing climate change
Forest sector is very contentious in global negotiations
 The Emissions Scenarios of the Special Report on
Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
• A1. The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global
population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more
efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and
increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita
income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of
technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological
emphasis: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B)
(where balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption
that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end-use technologies).
• A2. The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is
self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly,
which results in continuously increasing population. Economic development is primarily regionally
oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change more fragmented and slower than
other storylines.
• B1. The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population,
that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid change in
economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and
the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to
economic, social and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional
climate initiatives.
• B2. The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to
economic, social and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global
population, at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and
more diverse technological change than in the A1 and B1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented
towards environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.
 Climate Change projected for
2071-2100 (A2)

Source: Rupa Kumar et. al. (2006)

 Assessment of Impact of
climate change on forests
BIOME4: Equilibrium model
• Climate, vegetation, soil and water data
IBIS (Integrated Biosphere Simulator):
dynamic global Vegetation Model
• Climate, vegetation, soil and water data
Climate Model: GCM and RCM data from
• Hadley Had RM3 data (50x50 km2)
Climate Change Scenarios:
• A2, B2 and A1B
• 2030s and 2070s
 Impact on Forest and Other Vegetation
Types (1975 - 2085) – IBIS Model outputs

1: tropical evergreen forest / woodland, 2: tropical deciduous forest / woodland, 3. temperate evergreen broadleaf
forest / woodland, 4: temperate evergreen conifer forest / woodland, 5: temperate deciduous forest / woodland, 6:
boreal evergreen forest / woodland, 7: boreal deciduous forest / woodland, 8: mixed forest / woodland, 9:
savanna, 10: grassland / steppe, 11: dense shrubland, 12: open shrubland, 13: tundra, 14: desert, 15. polar desert /
rock / ice
 IBIS predictions – Baseline, A2

1: tropical evergreen forest / woodland, 2: tropical deciduous forest / woodland, 3. temperate evergreen broadleaf forest /
woodland, 4: temperate evergreen conifer forest / woodland, 5: temperate deciduous forest / woodland, 6: boreal evergreen
forest / woodland, 7: boreal deciduous forest / woodland, 8: mixed forest / woodland, 9: savanna, 10: grassland / steppe, 11:
dense shrubland, 12: open shrubland, 13: tundra, 14: desert, 15. polar desert / rock / ice
Impact of A1B Scenario climate change: Baseline and 2035 (middle panel) scenarios. The grids
where a change in vegetation is projected is shown in red in the rightmost panel

1.Tropical wet evergreen forests,2.Tropical semi evergreen forests, 3.Tropical moist deciduous forest,
4.Tropical dry decidious forest, 5.Tropical thorny/scrub forests, 6.Tropical dry evergreen forest,7.Littoral and
swampy forest, 8.Subtropical broad -leaved hill forests, 9.Subtropical pine forests, 10.Sub-tropical dry
evergreen forests, 11.Montane wet temperate forests, 12.Himalayan wet/ moist temperate forests, 13.Himalayan
dry temperate forests, 14.Sub-alpine forests, 15.Moist alpine,
Vulnerability Index
 Vulnerability of four Himalayan
states
State Num. Num forest % forest Num forest % forest
forest grids grids grids grids
grids changed changed (A2) changed (B2) changed (B2)
(2.4”x2 (A2) (Table
.4”) sorted)

Himachal 740 400 54.05 400 54.05

Pradesh

Uttarakhand 1149 283 24.63 256 22.28

Jammu and 1535 189 12.31 518 33.75

Kashmir

Punjab 150 3 2.00 3 2.00

 Key Issues
• Himalayan ecosystems are subjected to
degradation & Envi. stresses
• Disturbed Himalayan Ecosystems are
vulnerable to climate variability and
climate change
• Many uncertainties exist with respect to
– Regional climate projections
– Dynamic vegetation models
– Socio-economic and policy impacts
• Need for research on CC modeling &
develop Adaptation measures
Why Adaptation? When uncertainty
in Impact Assessment
• Impacts will be irreversible; e.g.,
– loss of biodiversity
• Inertia in response to changing climate
• Long gestation period in developing &
implementation of adaptation practices
• Waiting for full knowledge – high risk
• Large ecological, economic and social
implications
Focus on “win – win” adaptation options
 Potential win-win Adaptation practices
• Anticipatory planting of species
– along latitude and altitude
– promote assisted natural regeneration
• Promote mixed species forestry
- species differ in temperature tolerance.
• Rationalize Protected Area boundaries
– linking of PAs as corridors for migration
• Develop and implement fire protection and
management practices.
• Adopt thinning, sanitation and other silvi practices.
• Promote in situ and ex situ conservation of genetic
diversity.
• Develop drought and pest resistance in commercial
tree species.
• Adopt sustainable forest management practices.
A case study
 Objectives of the study
1. What is the forest vulnerability ranking of
different districts in Himachal Pradesh
under „current climate‟ scenario?
2. Forests in which districts are likely to be
impacted under „future climate‟ scenario?
3. Which are the priority districts for
adaptation planning under impending
climate change?
 The RCPs are consistent with a wide range of possible changes in future anthropogenic (i.e., human)
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. RCP 2.6 assumes that global annual GHG emissions (measured in
CO2-equivalents) peak between 2010-2020, with emissions declining substantially thereafter.
Emissions in RCP 4.5 peak around 2040, then decline. In RCP 6, emissions peak around 2080, then
decline. In RCP 8.5, emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century.

The climate change

projections are developed
for 4 RCPs namely;
RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0
and RCP8.5 Watts/m2.
However, in the current
study only 2 RCPs are
used namely, 4.5 and 8.5.
The present study is
carried out for two time
slices – mid-term (2021-
2050) and long-term (2070-
2099). A grid size of
0.5x0.5 degree is adopted
to simulate climate as well
as vegetation projections.
Distribution of forest vulnerability under „current climate‟ scenario (inherent vulnerability):
(a) distribution of vulnerability at grid cell level (there are no forest grid cells in the area
shown in white colour; (b) distribution of vulnerability at district level.
District-wise
projected
warming of
temperature
: (a) for
2030s
under
RCP4.5, (b)
for 2030s
under
RCP8.5, (c)
for 2080s
under
RCP4.5, (d)
for 2080s
under
RCP8.5
District-wise
projected
changes in
precipitation:
(a) for 2030s
under
RCP4.5, (b)
for 2030s
under
RCP8.5, (c)
for 2080s
under
RCP4.5, (d)
for 2080s
under
RCP8.5.
Vegetation shift projected by IBIS
dynamic vegetation model in (a)
midterm (2030s) under RCP4.5, (b)
long (2080s) under RCP4.5, (c)
midterm (2030s) under RCP8.5 and
(d) long term (2080s) under RCP8.5
Vegetation shift projected by LPJ
dynamic vegetation model in (a)
midterm (2030s) under RCP4.5 (b)
long term (2080s) under RCP4.5
(c) midterm (2030s) under RCP8.5
and (d) long term (2080s) under
RCP8.5.
 Conclusions
• The methodology used in the study presents a practical option available to
prioritize major forest districts in Himachal Pradesh for adaptation planning.
The study successfully prioritizes districts. The results of the study would be
useful in decision-making. Use of the outcome of vulnerability assessment
rests in addressing the current sources of vulnerability to reduce
vulnerability and build long-term forest resilience.
• The CMIP5 climate models project that most of the districts in Himachal
Pradesh will likely experience a mean warming of 4–5oC and over 16%
percentage increase in precipitation in the long term.
• Based on the future vulnerability index estimated at district level in Himachal
Pradesh, the five major forest districts identified as vulnerable districts for
planning adaptation interventions are: Chamba, Kangra, Kullu, Mandi and
Shimla.