يار لنظم القرار capter2

DSS
a d
zh By:
ne
g ar Dr. Razieh
As
R . Asgarnezhad
r.
y D
b
ts em for my
Sy
o rt international
pp
S u students
n
i s io
D ec
2021
Decision Support Systems by Dr. Razieh Asgarnezhad, Islamic Azad University of Isfahan
1
(Khorasgan), Nov 2021
a d
h
Decision Supportn ez Systems
ar g
A s
R .
r.
y D
b
ts em
S y
t
or
p Razieh Asgarnezhad
p
Dr.
u
S
s ion
i
Dec
Islamic Azad University of Isfahan (Khorasgan)
November 2021
Reference d
h a
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sga
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b yD
ts em
S y
rt
• Decision Support System
p p o and Intelligent Systems, Efraim
Su
Turban, Seventhn Edition
i s io
e c
D
3
Content-I d
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R
r. Modeling, and Support
Chapter 2: Decision-Making Systems,
D
Chapter 3: Decision Support System: b y An Overview
t e m
Chapter 4: Modeling and Analysis
S ys
o rt
Chapter 5: Business p Intelligence: Data Acquisition, Data Mining,
u p
Business Analytic, and S Visualization
n
i s io
e c
Chapter 10: Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems: Knowledge-
D
Based System
4
Content-II d
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Data Mining Tools:
b
m
Rapid Miner, Clementine, WEKA
te
y s
DSS and Expert Systemt STools:
o r
Clips p p
S u
n
Other tools forsiomore study:
ci
e
D Orange, Knime, R, Excel, etc.
Heuristic Lab,
5
Grading System d
h a
5 points n ez
ar2&3)
Mid Exam
In online system through website of university (Chapters s g
. A
Final Exam 5 points . R
r
D(Chapters 4&5&10)
b y
In online system through website of university
Presentation 5 points
ts em
Free subject in a .PPTX format Sy
o rt
Writing a paper 5 points p p
Su in English Language in a .DOCX format (Work on a dataset using a tool)
n
Writing a scientific paper
o
i
is a paper 3 points
e c
Extra grade: Publishing
PublishingDa scientific paper in an international journal
Email: raziehasgarnezhad@yahoo.com
WhatsApp: 00989370713635
6
Learning Objective
Chapter 2 a d
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Understand the conceptual foundations of decision-making
y D
Understand the four phasesb of decision-making from Simon
m te Choice, and Implementation
s
model: Intelligence, Design,
y
rtS
Differentiate between p o the concept of making a choice and
u p
S
establishing a principle of choice
o n
Learn howcDSS i
is support for decision-making can be provided in
practice De
7
Propose d
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The major focus of this book yD
b is the computerized support of
decision-making. ts em
S y
The propose of the o rt Chapter 2 is to describe the conceptual
p p
Su
foundations of decision-making.
o n
is i
c
De
8
Introduction d
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Decision-making is complexb - very complex. It involves people
and information. ts em
S y
When you pay people o rt to work, they work – and don't think.
p p
But when youn pay Su people to think, they think. And when you
empower themi s io to make decision, they make good ones.
e c
D
9
Decision-Making d
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Decision-making is at Syprocess of choosing among alternative
o r
p the purpose of attaining a goal / goals.
courses of action pfor
Su
n
i s io
D ec
10
Decision-Making vs Problem-Solving
d
h a
A problem happens when a system does enot work as planned. z
n
g ar
Differentiating the terms decision-making
. A s and problem-solving
r .R
van be confusing. One way to distinguish between the two is to
examine the phases of decision y D process. 1) intelligence, 2)
b
m
design, 3) choice, and 4) implementation.
te
y s
Some S
consider the tentire
r
process (phases 1-4) as problem-
p o
solving, with the choice phase as the real decision-making.
p u
Others view iphases S
o n 1-3 as formal decision-making ending with
cis
a real recommendation; whereas problem-solving additionally
e
includes Dthe actual implementation of recommendation (phase
4).
11
System d
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. A
The DSS, GSS, EIS, and ES all r . R include the term system. A
D
system is a collection ofbyobjects intended to perform an
temserve a goal.
identifiable function or to
S ys
A clear definition oforthe t system’s goal is a critical consideration
in the design of a pMSS.p
Su
The structure o n a system: Input, Process, Output, Feedback.
is i of
c
A systemDise separated from its environment by a boundary.
12
Environment d
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The environment of a system is composed
. A of several elements.
R
r. and its goals.
It affects the system’s performance
D
One way to identify themelements b y of the environment is by
posing two question: ste
S y
 1) Dose the element o rt matter relative to the system's goals?
p p
 2) Is it possibleSufor the decision-maker to significantly manipulate this
element?sion
ci
If and onlyDe if the answer to the first question is YES, and the
answer to the second is NO, is the element in the environment.
13
System and its Environment
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Closed and Opened System
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A closed system is at onebyextreme D and totally independent;
whereas an opened system
t e m is very dependent on its
environment. S ys
o rt
An opened system p p accepts inputs from the environment and
may deliver output Su to the environment.
o n
i
is to deal with systems that are fairly open.
DSS attemptc
De
15
Effectiveness vs Efficiencyd
Systems are evaluated in terms of these h a two performance
n ez
measures: r
s ga
Effectiveness is the degree to which R . A goals are achieved. It is
concerned with the output of the r . system.
y D
Efficiency is a measure of mtheb use of inputs to achieve outputs.
s te
Peter Drucker proposed t S y the following way to distinguish
o r
between the two terms:
p p
 Effectiveness Suis doing the right thing.
o n
i
is is going the thing right.
 Efficiency
c
De
An important feature of DSS is their emphasis on the
EFFECTIVENESS or goodness.
16
Models d
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 A major feature of a DSS is the inclusion ofsgatarleast one model. The idea is to
perform the DSS om a model of reality rather
R . A then on the real system.
r .
 A model is a simplified representation D of reality. They are classified based on
their degree of abstraction, 1) iconic, y
b 2) analog, or 3) mathematical.
 Iconic model – the least abstract ts em type of model – is a physical replica of a
S y
rt
system.
o
 Analog model behavespplike the real system but does not look like it. It is more
Su model and is a symbolic representation of reality.
n
abstract than an iconic
s i
 Mathematicalcimodelo – more abstract – The complexity of relationships in many
De systems cannot be presented by iconic or analogically. So, they
organization
are described
by this model. DSS analyses are performed with
mathematically.
17
Phases of the decision-making
d
process
h a
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 Simon said that a systematic decision-making y D process includes three major
b
phases: 1) Intelligence, 2) Design,
e m and 3) Choice.
y st
 He later added a fourth phase,
rt S 4) Implementation.
p o
 The fifth phase can beupconsidered as 5) Monitoring, a form of feedback.
S
 This model is the o n
i s i briefest and yet perfect characterization of rational decision-
c
De
making.
18
Simon model d
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. A
R
r. from intelligence to design to choose.
 This model is a continuous flow of activity
But at any phase there may be return D
by
to a previous phase (feedback).
ts em
 Modeling is a vital part of this process.
 The decision-making process S y starts with
t the intelligence phase. Certainty is
r is determined. Problem ownership is authorized as
examined, and the problem
p o
p
Su
well.
 In the design phase,o n a model that expresses the system is formed. It is done by
is i
e c
making assumptions that simplify certainty and writing down the relationships
D variables.
among all the
19
Simon model d
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 After it, the model is validated, and criteria A
. are defined in origin of choice for
. R
evaluation of alternative courses of action
D r that are recognized. Usually, the
process of model development recognizes by alternative solutions.
 The choice phase comprises the ts emselection of a suggested solution to the model.
This solution is examined toSydefine its visibility.
o rt
 Once the suggestedppsolution seems reasonable, we are ready for the
implementation phase Su of the decision. A successful implementation results in
o n
solving the real iproblem.
c is
 Failure leads
D e to return to an earlier phase of the process. We can return to an
earlier phase during any of the latter three phases.
20
Simon model
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Simon ‘s four phases and the web
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S y
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Decision-Making: The intelligence phase
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 Intelligence in decision-making requires scanning ar the environment, either
s g several activities aimed at
.A
intermittently or continuously. It involves
distinguishing problem situations or Ropportunities.
.
It may also include
monitoring the results of the implementation
Dr phase of a decision-making
process. by
Problem identification ts em
S y
 The intelligence phase starts
o rt with the identification of organizational goals
p p
related to an issue of concern and determination of whether they are being met.
Problems occur because Su of dissatisfaction with the status. Dissatisfaction is the
o n between what expect and what is occurring.
i
result of a difference
is
e c
 In the firstDphase, one attempts to define whether a problem exists. Usually,
what is described as a problem, maybe only be a symptom of a problem.
Because real-world problems are complicated by many interrelated factors, it is
sometimes difficult to separate between the symptoms and the real problem.
23
a d
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 The existence of a problem can be determinedaby r monitoring and analyzing the
s g of productivity is based on real
.A
organization‘s productivity level. The measure
data. The collection of data and the evaluation
. R of future data are among the
most difficult steps in the analysis. Some
Dr issues about data collection and
estimation are of concern: by
Data are not available. ts em
S y
Data may be insecure.
o rt
p p
Su
Data may not be accurate.
Obtaining data mayioben expensive.
cis
D e
 Once the primary investigation is completed, it is possible to define whether a
problem exists, where it is located, and how meaningful it is. An important
issue is whether an information system is reporting a problem or only the
symptoms of a problem.
24
a d
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Problem classification
n
 Problem classification is the conceptualization g arof a problem in an attempt to
place it in a specified category, perhaps leading A s to a standard solution approach.
R .
Programmed vs. non-programmed problems r .
y D
 Simon identified two limits regarding b the structuredness of decision problems.
 These are Well-structured problems ts em that are regular for which standard models
S y describes these programmed problems. For
have been developed. Simon
rt
p
example, monthly determination o of cash flow.
p
u called non-programmed problems, which are innovative
 At the other hand, She
o n For example, initiating a complex research and development
is
and non-recurrent. i
c
De
project.
 Positively, with analysis, it will convert semi-structured or structured.
25
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Problem decomposition
. A
R sub-problems. Solving the simpler
 Many complex problems can be dividedr. into
sub-problems may help in solving Dthe complex problem. Just as a semi-
by phases of decision-making are structured
ts em so when some sub-problems of decision-
structured problem results when some
while other phases are unstructured,
S y with others unstructured, the problem itself is
t
making problems are structured
semi-structured. or p
p
 As a DSS is developed Su and the decision-maker and learns more about the
o n structure.
i
problem, it achieves
is
 Decomposition c
e is one of the most important aspects of the Analytical Hierarchy
D
Process (AHP) which helps decision-makers incorporate both qualitative and
quantitative factors into their decision-making models.
26
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Problem ownership r
yD
 In the intelligence phase, it is vital bto build problem ownership. A problem exists
ts em or some group takes on the responsibility of
in an organization only if someone
Sy
attacking it and if the organization
t
has the ability to solve it.
 When problem ownership o r
p p is not established, either someone is not doing his or
her job, or the problem
Su at hand has yet to be identified as belonging to anyone.
o n
is i
c
Dephase ceases with a formal problem statement.
The intelligence
27
Decision-Making: The design phase
a d
zh
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 The s ga
. A
design phase includes obtaining or producing and analyzing possible
. R
courses of action. These involve understanding the problem and examining
Dr decision-making problem is formed,
solutions for usefulness. A model of the
examined, and verified. by
ts emproblem and abstracting it into quantitative or
 Modeling includes imagining the
S y
rt
qualitative form. For a mathematical model, the variables are distinguished,
o
p
and their interactive relationships are built.
p
 Simplifications areSumade, whenever necessary, through assumptions. For
o n
s i
example, a relationship between two variables may be assumed to be linear
i reality there may be some nonlinear effects.
e
even though in c
D
 A proper balance between the level of model simplification and the
representation of reality must be obtained because of the benefit/cost trade-off.
28
a d
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As
 A simpler model commences to lower development costs, easier manipulation,
.
. R
and a faster solution but is less representative of the real problem and can be
inaccurate results. D r
b y
 On the other hand, a simpler model m usually needs less data, or the data are
st e
aggregated and easier to achieve.
S y
 The process of modelingoisrta combination of art and science.
p
 As a science, thereSupare many standard model classes available, and with
o n can define which one is appropriate to a given situation.
i
practice, an analyst
s
 As an art, aecilevel of creativity and fitness is needed when deciding what
simplifyingDassumptions can work, how to combine suitable features of the
model classes, and how to combine models to achieve efficient solutions.
29
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 Models have decision variables that represent A
. the alternatives a manager must
R
decide among, a result variable or ar.set of result variables that define the
y D problem, and uncontrollable variables
b
objective or goal of the decision-making
ts em
or parameters that define the environment.
 The process of modeling requires S y defining relationships among the variables.
rt
p
Selection of a principle of choiceo
p
 A belief of choicen isSua criterion that describes the acceptability of a solution
i s
approach. In a model,io it is a results variable.
e c
 Selecting an D origin of choice is not part of the choice phase but includes how we
build our decision-making objectives and how it is incorporated into the models.
30
a d
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Normative models
r
D the chosen alternative is demonstrably
 Normative models are those in which y
the best of all possible alternatives. b To discover it, one should consider all
alternatives and confirm that tthe e m one chosen is indeed the best, which is what
S ys process is optimization.
rt
one would normally want. This
p o
p
In operational terms, optimization can be achieved in one of three ways:
 Get the highest level Suof goal achievement from a given set of resources.
o n
i
is with the highest ratio of goal achievement to cost.
 Find the alternative
e c
D
 Find the alternative with the lowest cost.
31
a d
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. A
. R following assumptions of rational
Normative decision theory is based on rthe
D
by
decision-makers:
em objective is to maximize the attainment of

 Human are economic beings whose
t
ys is rational.
S
goals; that is, the decision-maker
 For decision-making situation, rt
p o all viable alternative courses of action and their
consequences, or atuleast p the probability and the values of the consequences,
S
are known. n
i s io
 Decision-makers
e c have an order or preference that permits them to rank the
advantageDof all consequences of the analysis (best to worst).
32
a d
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Sub-optimization
A s
 By definition, optimization needs a decision-maker
. to examine the impact of
R complete organization because a
each alternative course of action onr.the
y D
decision made in one area may have meaningful effects (positive or negative) in
b
m
other areas.
t e
 A system point of view evaluates S ys the impact of all decisions on the complete
system. Therefore, the rtmarketing department should make its plans in
o
conjunction with otherpdepartments.
p The other departments can be aggregated
Su
into simple model components. Such an approach is called sub-optimization.
n
 If a suboptimal i s io decision is made in one part of the organization without
e c details of the rest of the organization, next an optimal solution
D
examining the
from the point of view of that part may be secondary for the whole.
Nevertheless, sub-optimization may yet be a very practical approach to
decision-making, and many problems are first advanced from this perspective.
33
a d
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 Once a solution is suggested, its possible effects g ar on the remaining departments
A s
of the organization can be examined. If. no significant negative effects are
observed, the solution can be implemented. r .R
y D
 Sub-optimization may apply when b simplifying assumptions are applied in
modeling a specific problem. There ts em may be too many details or too many data
S y
to combine into a specific decision-making situation, and so not all of them are
t
used in the model. If thersolution
o
p be approved.
to the model seems feasible, it may be valid
for the problem and thus
u p
S
 Sub-optimizationon may apply to include simply limiting the search for an
isi
optimum by cexamining fewer criteria or alternatives or by reducing large
e problem from evaluation. If it takes too long to solve a problem,
portions ofDthe
a good-enough solution found so far may be applied and the optimization effort
ended.
34
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Descriptive models . A
. R
r
 Descriptive models explain things asD they are or as they are believed to be.
by
These models are typically mathematically based. Descriptive models are
extremely useful in DSS for minvestigating the consequences of various
ste different forms of inputs and processes.
alternative courses of action yunder
t S
r
 Nonetheless, because paodescriptive analysis examines the performance of the
system for an assigned u p set of alternatives, there is no guarantee that an
Swith the aid of a descriptive analysis is optimal. In many
alternative chosen n
io
cases, it is onlyissatisfactory.
e c
 SimulationDis presumably the most common descriptive modeling method.
Simulation has been applied to many areas of decision-making.
35
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Good enough
n ez
 According to Simon, most human decision-making, g ar whether organizational or
A s
individual, requires a willingness to settle
. for a satisfactory solution,
“something less than the best.” r. R
y D
 When satisficing, the decision-maker b sets up an ambition, goal, or aspired level
of performance and then searches
t e m the alternatives till one is decided that
attained this level.
S ys
 The decision-maker ispoacting rt reasonably, though in certainty he or she is
u pis a form of sun-optimization.
S
satisficing. Satisficing
n
i s io
 Related to satisficing is the idea of Simon about bounded rationality. Humans
have a limitede c of a real situation by considering fewer alternatives. Their
D
behavior concerning the simplified model may be rational.
 Rationality is bounded not only by limitations on human processing capacities
but additionally by individual differences, such as age, education, knowledge,
etc.
36
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Errors in decision-making b yD
te m
 The model is a significant component
y s in the decision-making process, but one
may make several errors tin S its development and use. Confirming the model
r
po
before it is used is significant.
p
 Gathering the right u
S amount of information, with the right level of person and
n
i s io
accuracy, to incorporate into the decision-making process is also critical.
e c
D
37
Decision-Making: The choice phase
a d
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s ga
. A
R
r.
 The choice is the critical act of decision-making. The choice phase is the one in
D where the commitment to pursue a
which the actual decision is madey and
certain course of action is made.m b
s te
 The boundary between theSy design and choice phases is frequently unclear
because certain activitiesrcan t be achieved during both of them and because one
o
pchoice activities to design activities.
can return usually from
u p
S
 Solving the model o nis not the same as solving the problem the model represents.
i
is the model generates a suggested solution that is successfully
The solution cto
De
implemented.
38
Decision-Making: The choice phase
a d
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n e
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s ga
. A
. R
 Solving a decision-making model involves D r searching for a relevant course of
action. These search approaches bintroducey analytical techniques, algorithms,
ts em
heuristics, and blind search.
Sy
 Each alternative must be tevaluated. If an alternative has multiple goals, these
r
must all be checked andobalanced off against the others. Sensitivity analysis is
p p
applied to define the u robustness of any given alternative. What-if analysis is
S major changes in the parameters. Goal seeking helps the
n
applied to investigate
i
manager discover s io the values of the decision variables to meet a specific
objective. ec
D
39
Decision-Making: The implementation
phase h a d
e z
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s ga
. A
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 The definition of implementation y D is somewhat complicated because
b process with uncertain boundaries.
ts em
implementation is a long, dedicated
 Implementation means putting S y a recommended solution to work, not
o
necessarily the implementation rt of a computer system.
p p
 The computer system S u updates ideally should involve some kind of formal
o n development approach, while the actual implementation of
i
information system
cis not.
the decision may
De
40
How decisions are supported?
a d
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Support for the intelligence phase
a d
zh
n e
r
sga
. A
. R
r
b yD
 The primary element of decisionemsupport for the intelligence phase is the ability
y st
S
to consider external and internal information sources for opportunities and
t
problems and to evaluaterwhat the scanning discovers.
p o
 Implementation means u p putting a suggested solution to work, not significantly
S of a computer system.
the implementation n
i s io
e c
D
42
Support for the design phase
a d
zh
n e
r
ga
As
 The design phase involves generating alternative
R.
courses of action, discussing
the criteria for choice and their relative. importance, and forecasting the future
Dr
consequences of using various alternatives. Several of these activities can be
y
used standard models produced byba DSS.
te m
 Alternatives for structured problems
y s can be generated through the use of either
rt S Nevertheless, the production of alternatives for
standard or special models.
p o expertise that can only be provided by a human,
complex problems requires
up or an expert system.
brainstorming software,
S
n
 OLAP and datamining
i s io tools are quite useful in distinguishing relationships that
can be used einc models. Most of DSSs have quantitative analysis capabilities, and
an internalDES can assist with qualitative methods as well as with the expertise
requires in selecting quantitative analysis and forecasting models.
43
Support for the choice phase
a d
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n e
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s ga
. A
A R
DSS can support the choice phaser.through the what-if and goal-seeking
analyses. Different scenarios can ybeD examined for the chosen alternative to
b
reinforce the final decision. m te
s
 KMS aids distinguish similarSypast experiences; CRM, ERP, and SCM systems are
used to examine the impacts
o rt of the decisions in building their values leading to
an intelligence choice.pAn p ES can be applied to evaluate the usefulness of certain
solutions as well as Stou suggest an appropriate solution.
o n
 If a group makes i
is the decision, a group support system can produce support to
c
De
lead to agreement.
44
Support for the implementation phase
Making the decision happen
h a d
e z
r n
ga
 Implementation phase DSS advantages areAspartly due to the clarity and detail
R .
of analyses and reports.
r .
 All phases of the decision-making D
y process can be aided by developed
communication by collaborativem b
computing through GSS and KMS.
st e
 Programmed systems canSypromote communication by assisting people to
t
explain and justify their rproposals
p o and opinions. Decision implementation can
also be supported by ES.
u p
S
 CRM systems reporto n and update internal records based on the impacts of the
i
is Later, these inputs are used to new problems and
c
implementation.
De a return to the intelligence phase.
opportunities,
45

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DSS

em objective is to maximize the attainment of

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