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Implementation of A Heart Disease Risk Prediction Model Using Machine Learning
Implementation of A Heart Disease Risk Prediction Model Using Machine Learning
Research Article
Implementation of a Heart Disease Risk Prediction Model Using
Machine Learning
Copyright © 2022 K. Karthick et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License,
which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Cardiovascular disease prediction aids practitioners in making more accurate health decisions for their patients. Early detection
can aid people in making lifestyle changes and, if necessary, ensuring effective medical care. Machine learning (ML) is a
plausible option for reducing and understanding heart symptoms of disease. The chi-square statistical test is performed to
select specific attributes from the Cleveland heart disease (HD) dataset. Support vector machine (SVM), Gaussian Naive Bayes,
logistic regression, LightGBM, XGBoost, and random forest algorithm have been employed for developing heart disease risk
prediction model and obtained the accuracy as 80.32%, 78.68%, 80.32%, 77.04%, 73.77%, and 88.5%, respectively. The data
visualization has been generated to illustrate the relationship between the features. According to the findings of the
experiments, the random forest algorithm achieves 88.5% accuracy during validation for 303 data instances with 13 selected
features of the Cleveland HD dataset.
Attributes Age Sex CP trestbps chol fbs restecg thalach exang oldpeak slope ca thal target
mean 54.44 0.68 3.16 131.69 246.69 0.15 0.99 149.61 0.33 1.04 1.60 0.66 4.70 0.94
std 9.04 0.47 0.96 17.60 51.78 0.36 0.99 22.88 0.47 1.16 0.62 0.93 1.97 1.23
min 29 0 1 94 126 0 0 71 0 0 1 0 0 0
25% 48 0 3 120 211 0 0 133.5 0 0 1 0 3 0
50% 56 1 3 130 241 0 1 153 0 0.8 2 0 3 0
75% 61 1 4 140 275 0 2 166 1 1.6 2 1 7 2
max 77 1 4 200 564 1 2 202 1 6.2 3 3 7 4
reports is widely accessible in databases in the healthcare Woodland ML classifier had an 85 percent precision for car-
field, and it is rising rapidly day by day. In this article, the diovascular disease [10].
UCI ML repository’s Cleveland HD dataset was utilized for Gudadhe et al. [11] described the framework for predict-
developing the prediction model to heart disease. The ing the heart disease using SVM and obtained the accuracy
machine is trained for learning patterns based on the fea- as 80.41%. Kahramanli and Allahverdi [12] combined fuzzy
tures that are already present in the dataset. Classification and crisp values in health data and attained accuracy rates of
is an effective ML approach for prediction. When properly 84.24% to Pima Indian diabetes dataset and 86.8% for the
trained with adequate data, classification is an effective Cleveland HD dataset, respectively. Various ML classifica-
supervised ML method for identifying disease [8]. The pri- tion models [13–17] could be used to improve intelligence.
mary goal of this work is to employ contemporary ML tech- Kahramanli and Allahverdi [12] established the artificial
niques to construct the healthcare heart disease predictive and fuzzy-based model to the Pima Indian diabetes dataset
model. The Cleveland HD dataset was subjected to SVM and the Cleveland HD dataset and found 84.24% and
with radial basis function (RBF) kernel, Gaussian Naive 86.8% accuracy, respectively.
Bayes, logistic regression, LightGBM, XGBoost, and random Olaniyi et al. [18] established a prediction model and
forest algorithm, and the best performing prediction model achieved an accuracy of 85% using feedforward multilayer
for early diagnosis of heart disease was found. perceptron (MLP) and 87.5% using SVM on the UCI ML
datasets. Polat et al. [19] have employed k-nearest neighbour
algorithm and an artificial immune recognition framework
2. Related Work and achieved 87% accuracy on the Cleveland dataset. On a
Cleveland dataset, Detrano et al. [20] achieved 77% using
Nave Bayes, random forest, PART, C4.5, and multilevel per- the logistic regression algorithm. Saw et al. [21] have imple-
ceptron algorithm-based predictive model accuracy to HD mented the improved logistic regression classification model
dataset were determined to be in the range of 75.58%– for heart disease dataset. The fast decision tree and C4.5 tree
83.17% [9]. Moreover, Nave Bayes algorithm has the highest have been employed for HD prediction [22]. As a result of
accuracy as 83.17%, while other algorithms have less than the proposed model’s initial phase, trees and features have
80% accuracy [9]. Kumar et al. discovered that the Random been extracted. The genetic and fuzzy logic-based approach
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine 3
68.0%
Chest pain type: 2 7.6%
16.5%
32.0%
28.4%
Female
Chest pain type: 3
8.2%
91.8%
1.0
Age 1 −0.098 0.1 0.28 0.21 0.12 0.15 −0.39 0.092 0.2 0.16 0.37 0.13 0.22
Sex −0.098 1 0.01 −0.064 −0.2 0.048 0.022 −0.049 0.15 0.1 0.038 0.086 0.38 0.22
0.8
CP 0.1 0.01 1 −0.036 0.072 −0.04 0.068 −0.33 0.38 0.2 0.15 0.23 0.25 0.41
trestbps 0.28 −0.064 −0.036 1 0.13 0.18 0.15 −0.045 0.065 0.19 0.12 0.098 0.13 0.16
0.6
chol 0.21 −0.2 0.072 0.13 1 0.0098 0.17 −0.0034 0.061 0.047 −0.0041 0.12 0.025 0.071
fbs 0.12 0.048 −0.04 0.18 0.0098 1 0.07 −0.0079 0.026 0.0057 0.06 0.14 0.054 0.059
0.4
restecg 0.15 0.022 0.068 0.15 0.17 0.07 1 −0.083 0.085 0.11 0.13 0.13 0.024 0.18
thalach −0.39 −0.049 −0.33 −0.045 −0.0034 −0.0079 −0.083 1 −0.38 −0.34 −0.39 −0.27 −0.26 −0.42
0.2
exang 0.092 0.15 0.38 0.065 0.061 0.026 0.085 −0.38 1 0.29 0.26 0.15 0.32 0.4
oldpeak 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.19 0.047 0.0057 0.11 −0.34 0.29 1 0.58 0.3 0.34 0.5
0.0
slope 0.16 0.038 0.15 0.12 −0.0041 0.06 0.13 −0.39 0.26 0.58 1 0.11 0.28 0.38
ca 0.37 0.086 0.23 0.098 0.12 0.14 0.13 −0.27 0.15 0.3 0.11 1 0.26 0.52
−0.2
thal 0.13 0.38 0.25 0.13 0.025 0.054 0.024 −0.26 0.32 0.34 0.28 0.26 1 0.5
target 0.22 0.22 0.41 0.16 0.071 0.059 0.18 −0.42 0.4 0.5 0.38 0.52 0.5 1
−0.4
Age Sex CP trestbps chol fbs restecg thalach exang oldpeak slope ca thal target
25
20
15
10
0
80 100 120 140 160 180 200
The person’s maximum heart rate achieved
(a) thalach
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
200 300 400 500
Serum cholesterol in mg(dl)
(b) chol
40
30
20
10
0
100 120 140 160 180 200
Resting blood pressure in mmHg
(c) trestbps
Figure 3: Continued.
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine 5
10
6
count
0
29 34 35 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 74 76 77
Age
Target
0
1
2
3
4
(d) The age distribution of people with heart disease
has been proposed [23] which is a hybrid model to instantly value of “mean” indicates the feature’s average value. The
generate the rules using a fitness function, appropriate value of “std” reflects the feature’s standard deviation. The
genetic operators, and a rule encoding method. “min” indicates the feature’s minimal value. The 25%, 50%,
In this article, SVM with RBF kernel, Gaussian Naive and 75% are the percentile/quartile of each feature. The
Bayes, logistic regression, LightGBM, XGBoost, and random maximum value of the attribute is indicated by “max.”
forest algorithms were employed to evaluate the classifica- Statistical tests will be useful in determining which attri-
tion accuracy on UCI ML repository’s Cleveland HD dataset butes are having the most powerful relationship with the
[24]. The data visualization has also been done to illustrate performance variable. The “SelectKBest” class in Python’s
the relationship between the features. scikit-learn library is utilized to choose a distinct attribute
in a statistical test set. For nonnegative characteristics in this
3. Materials and Methods dataset, the statistical chi-square (chi2) test was used to pick
13 of the best features.
3.1. Data. The UCI ML repository’s Cleveland HD dataset
was used in this investigation [24]. As indicated in Table 1, 3.3. Dataset Visualization. The data visualization of features
a subset of 13 attributes were utilized in prediction of heart such as gender, chest pain category, and fasting blood sugar
disease with 303 data instances. Table 1 describes about level of the Cleveland heart dataset is shown in Figure 1.
the attributes and its description that were used in the pro- Males are more likely than females to get heart disease,
posed classification model. The clinical variables that were according to this Cleveland dataset. The majority of individ-
considered to be essential were given under attribute column uals with cardiovascular disease experience asymptomatic
in Table 1, and it is chosen based on the chi-square (chi2) chest discomfort.
feature selection method [25]. To develop the heart risk pre- Figure 2 depicts a heat map of the subset attributes,
diction model, the remaining 61 attributes of the dataset which serves as an instant visual summary. Thalassemia is
were excluded to improve the accuracy of the model. Except a genetic disorder that causes people to have low haemoglo-
for null, all other target values from 1 to 4 were considered bin levels than normal. Haemoglobin allows erythrocyte to
as risk of cardiovascular disease for developing the model. transmit oxygen. Figure 3 illustrates the distribution of tha-
The classification model consists of two classes, namely, lach, chol, trestbps, and people count those who are suffering
class 0 and 1. The target values 1 to 4 have been changed from cardiovascular disease based on to their age. Cardio-
as 1 during preprocessing. vascular disease is quite common in people over the age of
60, as well as adults aged 41 to 60. However, it is uncommon
3.2. Feature Selection. The statistical overview of subset attri- in the 19-year to 40-year-old age category and extremely
butes is shown in Table 2 for 303 instances. The count shows uncommon in the 0-year to 18-year-old age category.
us how many nonempty rows are there in a feature. The Figure 4 shows the correlation between attributes such as
6 Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
200
180
160
thalach
140
120
100
80
70
60
Age
50
40
30
0 1 2 3 4
target
(b) Age vs. target
Figure 4: Continued.
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine 7
100
80
60
Age
40
20
0 1 2 3
ca
Target
0 3
1 4
2
(c) Age vs. ca
200
180
160
Thalach
140
120
100
80
1 2 3 4
CP
Target
0 3
1 4
2
(d) thalach vs. CP
Figure 4: Continued.
8 Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
oldpeak 4
−2
0 1
exang
Target
0 3
1 4
2
60
Age
40
0.05
sex
0.00
−0.05
200
trestbps
150
100
400
chol
200
1.0
fbs
0.5
0.0
2
restecg
0
200
thalach
150
100
1.0
exang
0.5
0.0
6
oldpeak
4
2
0
3
slope
1
3
2
ca
1
0
6
4
thal
2
0
4
target
0
25 50 75 −0.05 0.00 0.05 100 200 250 500 0 1 0.0 2.5 100 200 0 1 0 5 0.0 2.5 0.0 2.5 0 10 0 5
age sex trestbps chol fbs restecg thalach exang oldpeak slope ca thal target
CP
1 3
2 4
import lightgbm
Assign d_train from lgb.Dataset with X_train & label = y_train
clf = lgb.train with categorical_feature=auto
Prediction y_pred = clf. predict(X_test)
convert into binary values for i range(0, len(y_pred))
setting threshold if y_pred[i]>=0.46:
import and print confusion matrix
print Accuracy
Pseudocode 1: LightGBM.
Pseudocode 2: XGBoost.
Bayes, logistic regression, LightGBM, XGBoost, and random
forest.
import RandomForestClassifier 4.1. Support Vector Machine. The SVM [26] classifier with
n_estimators=50. RBF kernel is a function that turns a nonlinear problem into
Fit the model (X_train, y_train) a linear problem in a multidimensional space. The RBF ker-
Predict model.predict(X_test) nel in SVM classification algorithm is defined as
Get model Score
K x, x ′ = e−γjjx−x jj ,
2
Rate people =0 ′
Check if len(people) >0:
ð1Þ
Rate people = len(people)/len(output)
Get the prediction of heart disease 2
where kx − x ′ k is the squared Euclidean distance between
import confusion_matrix
Compute confusion_matrix (y_pred, y_test) two feature vectors and γ is a scalar.
Print Accuracy
4.2. Gaussian Naive Bayes. Gaussian Naive Bayes is the clas-
sification algorithm, and here, the 13 features stochastically
Pseudocode 3: Random forest. independent for every class c and the prediction are given as
1
p xi ∣ c j = qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi e−1/2ðxi −μi, j /σi,j Þ for i = 1, 2, ⋯, 13 and j = 0, 1, 2, 3&4,
2
thalach and chol, age and target, age and ca, thalach and CP, 2Πσ2i, j
and oldpeak and exang with respect to target. Figure 5 shows
the pair plot that is useful to quickly explore distributions ð2Þ
and relationships between the attributes. In adult people,
total cholesterol levels < 200 mg/dL are generally preferred. where μi, j is the mean and σi, j is the root-mean square devi-
In the range 200-239 mg/dL, 240 mg/dL, and above, border- ation of the dataset.
lines are regarded to be high. A value of <40 mg/dL is mea-
sured as a risk factor for HD. A level of 41 mg/dL to 59 mg/ 4.3. Logistic Regression. The logistic regression model is
dL is considered borderline low. The maximal HDL level expressed as
that may be measured is 60 mg/dL. T
eα+X β
Pðy = 1 ∣ xÞ = pðα, βÞ = T
, ð3Þ
1 + eα+X β
4. Proposed Machine Learning Classifiers
where α is intercept arguments, β is slope argument vector,
To evaluate the heart disease risk prediction, six ML classi- and Dn = fðX i , yi Þ, i = 1, 2, 3, ⋯, ng is the independent data
fiers were used: SVM with RBF kernel, Gaussian Naive size of n with 303 data instances.
10 Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
LightGBM 77.04
98.76
80.32
Logistic regression 85.95
78.68
Gaussian naive bayes 86.77
80.32
Support vector machine 92.56
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Test set
Training set
Confusion matrix for SVM - Test set Confusion matrix for Gaussian Naive Bayes - Test set
Predicted label Predicted label
30 30
0 32 3 25 0 30 5 25
Actual label
Actual label
20 20
15 15
1 9 17 10 1 8 18 10
5 5
0 1 0 1
30
25
0 32 3 25 0 29 6
Actual label
Actual label
20
20
15 15
1 9 17 10 1 8 18
10
5
0 1 0 1
30
25
0 29 6 0 30 2 25
Actual label
Actual label
20 20
15 15
1 10 16 1 5 24 10
10
5
0 1 0 1
0.8
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
False positive rate
(a) SVM
ROC for Gaussian naive bayes test set
1.0
0.8
True positive rate
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
False positive rate
(b) Gaussian Naive Bayes
ROC for Logistic regression test set
1.0
0.8
True positive rate
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
False positive rate
(c) Logistic regression
Figure 8: Continued.
12 Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
0.8
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
False positive rate
(d) LightGBM
ROC for XGBoost test set
1.0
0.8
True positive rate
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
False positive rate
(e) XGBoost
ROC for random forest
1.0
0.8
True positive rate
AUC: 0.92
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
4.5. XGBoost. XGBoost algorithm is adopted from [28] and Authors’ Contributions
the pseudocode of the algorithm is given below.
Karthick was responsible for the conceptualization and data
4.6. Random Forest. The random forest [29] constructs mul- curation and wrote the original draft; Aruna was responsible
tiple decision trees and the pseudocode of the algorithm is for the investigation and methodology supervision; Ravi
given below. Samikannu carried out formal analysis; Ramya Kuppusamy
and Yuvaraja Teekaraman wrote, reviewed, and edited the
5. Results and Discussion manuscript; Amruth Ramesh Thelkar carried out methodol-
ogy validation.
The Cleveland HD dataset is split into training and testing
set with a ratio of 80 : 20. The classification model accuracy
is evaluated using the performance matrices from confusion References
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