Crime, Law and Social Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10611-021-09964-z

Making a dent in human trafficking: investigating

the effects of social institutions and policies across 60
countries

Laura A. Kabbash1 · Scott T. Ronis1 

Accepted: 4 April 2021

© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2021

Abstract
Given the worldwide magnitude, pervasiveness and deleterious consequences of
human trafficking (Roth, 45), a more comprehensive understanding of its underlying
causes is imperative. This study attempted to examine the influence of three social
factors (i.e., economics, social capital, and criminal justice) on human trafficking in
60 countries. Although regression and Bayesian analyses showed that macro level
economic, social, and criminal justice factors were not predictive of human traffick-
ing, our findings highlighted the variability and potential inaccuracy in reporting of
information in many countries. Many factors contribute to unreliable human traffick-
ing data including: (1) inconsistencies in the application of trafficking legislation,
(2) problems with victim identification and reporting, (3) varying definitions and
counts of trafficking, (4) the creation of cultural binaries in the media, and (5) prob-
lematic human-trafficking policies. To accurately identify factors contributing or
maintaining human trafficking, it is critical for governmental and non-governmental
agencies to collect a range of standardized information.

Worldwide human trafficking generates over US $30 billion annually, ranking

third behind drugs and weapons trades in illegal activities generating a profit
[25]. The United Nations (U.N.) estimates that 2.4 million individuals are cur-
rently victims of human trafficking around the world, with 80% ensnared specifi-
cally in sex trafficking [23]. Trafficking victims experience a host of negative out-
comes, including heightened risk of infectious disease, malnutrition, and physical
violence [6, 13, 20, 53].
Given the pervasiveness and deleterious consequences of trafficking, a more com-
prehensive understanding of underlying causes of human trafficking is imperative.
Individual factors (e.g., running away behaviors, substance misuse, homelessness,

* Scott T. Ronis
sronis@unb.ca
1
Department of Psychology, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, Canada

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 L. A. Kabbash, S. T. Ronis

poverty) have been examined in relation to victimization [21, 40]. Countries’ social
systems which can be understood as social structures that vary as a result of individ-
ual and government intervention, including a failing economy, inadequate education,
and inconsistent criminal justice application – have been theorized to undermine
societal support and protection, leaving people particularly vulnerable to exploita-
tion [39].
The intersection of countries’ poor economic standing, lack of social and employ-
ment opportunities, and inadequate criminal legislation create conditions condu-
cive to human trafficking. Understanding how these societal factors may support
opportunities for markets of human trafficking to grow may allow for national level
policies limiting human trafficking. Ecological theories (e.g., [7, 54] highlight how
the interactions of social factors (e.g., how a country’s economic climate can limit
access to effective education) foment the causes and maintenance of human traffick-
ing. Because victims of trafficking are among the most vulnerable populations and
often experience a host of negative outcomes, it is exigent to investigate how these
factors influence rates of trafficking.

Defining human trafficking

For the current project, human trafficking was conceptualized in line with the defini-
tion put forth by the Trafficking Victims Protection Act (TVPA) [50]. The TVPA, a
United States federal statute passed in 2000, defines both domestic and international
trafficking of persons in two ways: (1) sex trafficking in which a commercial sex act
is induced by force, fraud, or coercion, or in which the person made to perform this
act is not yet 17  years of age, or (2) recruitment, harboring, transportation, provi-
sion, or obtaining of a person for labor or services, through the use of force, fraud,
or coercion for the purpose of subjection to involuntary servitude, peonage, debt
bondage, or slavery (as cited in [52]). As outlined by Aronowitz [3], human traffick-
ing typically follows three phases: (1) recruitment, often characterized by fraudulent
promises or kidnapping; (2) transportation and entry, when victims are transported
internationally (international trafficking), or within the city or country (domestic
trafficking); and (3) exploitation, when victims are forcefully introduced into illicit
sex and labor markets. In an effort to address inconsistencies surrounding definitions
of human trafficking and goals for its elimination, an internationally recognized set
of standards—the Palermo Protocols—were established and adopted by the U.N. in
2000 [2]. Present conceptualizations of sex trafficking are subsumed under human
trafficking because sex trafficking comprises a significant proportion of human traf-
ficking occurrences along with labor trafficking [51].

Country economy and wealth

High poverty rates and significant income stratification in countries create environ-
ments with few opportunities for economic or personal growth, which heighten the
risk for trafficking exploitation [39]. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (i.e.,

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Making a dent in human trafficking: investigating the effects…

total economic output of a country divided by total population) is a widely cited

index of standard of living [55]. As a proxy of economic disparity, GDP indicates
a country’s ability to manage and export goods and resources [35, 49]. Higher GDP
countries generally offer citizens more access to social services. Although Cho and
colleagues [9] found that GDP per capita was not significantly correlated with com-
pliance with anti-trafficking policies, Goubin [19] found that economic deprivation,
as indicated by low GDP, was associated with lower levels of social cohesion – the
willingness of community members to work together in order to collectively pros-
per. This may lead to trafficking as citizens with less support and opportunity for
upward mobility are more vulnerable to exploitation. Overall, however, it remains
unclear whether GDP per capita is related broadly to human trafficking rates.

Education system and social capital

Social phenomena that decrease one’s potential for success and prosocial growth
may be linked to higher rates of trafficking. Indeed, strain theory posits that a soci-
ety’s high standard for relative success creates conditions in which people who are
not provided with adequate licit means to success are often are more vulnerable to
coercion and exploitation [33, 36]. Consistent with strain theory, people who per-
ceive less licit means to success may engage in various illicit activities, including
human trafficking, to obtain their goals.

Education rates

Because low education (i.e., high school dropout rates) negatively affects opportuni-
ties for growth and capital (e.g., physical, social) gains [12], it is also likely associ-
ated with higher rates of victimization through trafficking [17, 39]. Fedina and col-
leagues [15] found that nearly half their sample of trafficked individuals had dropped
out of school. It follows that countries with higher levels of educational achievement
would be generally less prone to trafficking, as their citizens would be less vulner-
able to exploitation, have more prosocial opportunities, and be more likely to under-
stand the consequences of illegal behavior. Because statistics are collected at the
country level, it is also possible that countries with greater social opportunities act
as incubators of human trafficking, ensnaring individuals attempting to escape their
country of origin, resulting in higher rates of reported trafficking in economically
prosperous countries.

Gender inequality

Research suggests countries with higher rates of gender disparity in political posi-
tions of power are likely to experience higher rates of human trafficking [11, 41].
Rao and Presenti [43] outline two economic reasons to explain why human traffick-
ing may be related to lower gender equality. First, because trafficked women expe-
rience inequality in their countries of origin, they represent a subset of migrants

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 L. A. Kabbash, S. T. Ronis

searching for higher incomes. Second, a lack of economic prosperity for women in
their native country results in a societal “devaluation”, which increases their risk
of being sold to traffickers. Taken together, a country’s level of gender inequality
and disparity in access to services and social opportunities can increase or decrease
women’s vulnerability and risk for being trafficked [24].

Criminal justice interventions

Nichols and Heil’s [39] third social institution, criminal justice interven-
tions, describes the presence, quantity, and effectiveness of police interven-
tions and their role in the trafficking industry at its entry and exit points.
Through protective policy implementation, the criminal justice system can
help reduce entry into trafficking networks and facilitate safety among vic-
tims. This is achieved through active policing to apprehend traffickers and
subsequent appropriate sentencing [1]. Unfortunately, government and police
corruption have been found to be significant predictors of human trafficking
[4]. Although non-consensual prostitution practices are inherent to sex traf-
ficking, consensual prostitution can occur independent of the sex trafficking
industry. However, in many countries where prostitution remains a criminal
offence, victims of sex trafficking are often prosecuted for their involuntary
engagement in sexual activity, potentially driving them further into the illicit
sex trade [48, 53].

Prostitution legislation

Although there is limited empirical literature on the connection between human

trafficking and prostitution legislation [14, 28], some researchers have suggested
theoretical links [16]. Scholars promoting a harm-reduction model of sex work
suggest that when prostitution is legal or decriminalized, a country has lower
rates of trafficking [1, 38]. They believe that decriminalizing prostitution allevi-
ates the fear of arrest and legal consequences, allowing sex workers more agency
and safety in deciding when and how they engage clients. In contrast, other
researchers (e.g., [38, 47]) posit that abolitionism protects victims best, as the
entire prostitution industry would be criminalized. They believe that criminal-
izing all prostitution limits rates of sex trafficking as law enforcement would not
be tasked with distinguishing between voluntary and coerced sex acts. Kelly et al.
[30] suggest that both legalization of sex work and visibility of sex trade affect
individual’s decisions to purchase sex. They also posit that governments with the
same legislation (e.g., abolitionism) enforce the law differently. Furthermore, the
ongoing flux in prostitution legislations based on advocacy from various groups
makes a definitive analysis of certain outcomes (e.g., trafficking rates) compli-
cated. Given the ongoing theoretical debate in the literature, it is worthwhile to

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Making a dent in human trafficking: investigating the effects…

empirically evaluate whether specific prostitution policies potentially influence

rates of human trafficking.

Compliance with anti‑trafficking protocols

Tier placement

Although creation of public policy is important, it is vital to consider countries’

political, social, and economic ability to implement protectionist policies that
lawmakers appear to support [2]. In accordance with the Palermo Protocols, the
tier placement of each country [52] provides insight into governmental efforts
to meet standards for eliminating human trafficking by protecting victims and
apprehending offenders. In particular, tier placement is an aggregate index of: (1)
enactment of laws prohibiting forms of trafficking, (2) adequate penalties for traf-
ficking offences, (3) implementation of human trafficking laws, (4) sufficient pro-
active victim-identification efforts, (5) government funding and partnerships with
non-governmental organizations to provide assistance to victims, (6) ensuring
legal protection for victims, (7) governmental efforts towards safe repatriation of
victims, and (8) governmental efforts to reduce the demand for international sex
tourism and to curb human trafficking. Tier placement ranges from Tier 1 (i.e.,
a government is making significant effort to address trafficking in line with the
Palermo protocols) to Tier 3 (i.e., a country not meeting the minimum standards
set out by TVPA and making minimal effort to do so).

Intersection of social institutions

Based on the extant literature and Nichols and Heil’s [39] work, the three social
institutions–a country’s economic climate, education and social capital, and
criminal justice interventions–all play a role in aiding our understanding of why
human trafficking occurs. However, consistent with other theoretical frameworks
(e.g., ecological theory), societal factors (e.g., economic, political, cultural) do not
operate in isolation, but continuously interact and influence overall societal cli-
mate [18, 29]. As such, it is important to more broadly consider factors comprising
these key social institutions (e.g., GDP per capita, prostitution legislation).

The current study

Consistent with Nichols and Heil’s [39] emphasis on broad social institutions and
ecological theories [7, 54], the purpose of this study was to provide a framework
to investigate the relationship between social institutions and human trafficking
rates. The research questions and corresponding hypotheses for the current study
were:

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 L. A. Kabbash, S. T. Ronis

RQ1: Is a country’s economic success related to its rates of human trafficking?

H1: Countries with lower levels of economic success, conceptualized as lower
GDP per capita and higher poverty rates, were expected to have higher rates of
human trafficking [19, 37].
RQ2: Is a country’s degree of social capital related to its human trafficking rates?
H2: Countries with higher educational achievement and lower rates of gender
inequality were expected to have lower rates of human trafficking [5, 43].
RQ3: Does a country’s level of compliance with human trafficking legislation
influence human trafficking rates?
H3: Countries with higher level of compliance (e.g., higher tier placement)
were hypothesized as having lower rates of human trafficking [2].
RQ4: Do specific trafficking legislations explain a significant proportion of vari-
ance in human trafficking rates?
H4: Given the ongoing theoretical debate regarding which prostitution legisla-
tion is most effective for reducing rates of trafficking [1, 38, 46, 47], the literature
offered no conclusive predictions for which legislation would be most effective.

Method

General data collection process

Secondary data were collected via an iterative search process of country-level indi-
cators mirroring target social institutions (i.e., economic success, education and
social capital, and criminal interventions). This secondary data was collected from
multiple sources outlined in further detail below (e.g., the Central Intelligence
Agency [CIA] World Factbook).
Power analyses are a tool used to estimate the required sample size in order to
detect an effect. Based on a hypothesized medium effect size, the selected number
of countries was determined based on an a priori power analysis conducted using
G*Power. This power analysis indicated that 58 countries (29% of all countries rec-
ognized by the United Nations) would be required to conduct the appropriate analy-
ses (i.e., multiple regression). Countries were sampled randomly with approximate
representation across the four prostitution legislation types, overall population size,
and government types (e.g., democracy, dictatorship, monarchy). Government type
for each country was referenced from the CIA World Factbook [8] to ensure varia-
tion in types included in the analysis.
The U.S. Department of State’s annual Trafficking in Persons report [52] provides
insight on whether countries are abiding by the standards set forth by the TVPA
established in 2000, which requires the serious and sustained effort to minimize and/
or eliminate severe forms of human trafficking. Each country’s narrative provides
an overview of its anti-trafficking laws, efforts to both protect and identify victims,

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Making a dent in human trafficking: investigating the effects…

efforts to prosecute offenders, and other factors (e.g., identification of especially vul-
nerable populations, recruitment techniques used) that make certain groups of peo-
ple more vulnerable to trafficking.

Human trafficking rates

Specific statistics outlining rates of forced sexual exploitation of children and adults
were provided by both country and region in a 2018 report from the United Nations
Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). The report covers 142 countries and pro-
vides an overview of trafficking cases detected between 2014 and 2017. These sta-
tistics served as the basis for rates of human trafficking for each country included in
the analyses, standardized by country population size (e.g., number of victims per
100,000 people).

Economic success

GDP per capita, a typical index of standard of living [55], was obtained from the
CIA World Factbook [8], which provides frequently updated information on the
economy, people, government, and transnational issues of 267 world entities.

Education system and social capital

Education rates

The percentage of people over 25 in a given country who have completed at least
lower secondary education was used an indicator of national educational achieve-
ment in the current study. This index is generated by the United Nations Educa-
tional, Scientific and Cultural Organisation and was last updated in 2018.

Gender inequality

Gender inequality was assessed using the United Nation’s annual Gender Inequal-
ity Index (GII). The GII can be understood as a representation of combined loss in
achievement of reproductive health, empowerment and labor market participation
due to national gender inequalities. This index is generated by the UN on the basis
of three dimensions: (1) Health (i.e., comprises maternal mortality ratio and ado-
lescent birth rate); (2) Empowerment (i.e., female and male population with com-
pleted secondary education, and female and male shares of parliamentary seats); and
(3) Labor Market (i.e., evaluates female and male labor force participation rates).
Overall, the GII represents how women are disadvantaged across these three dimen-
sions. Scores range from 0 to 1, with higher GII values indicating greater inequali-
ties between men and women.

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 L. A. Kabbash, S. T. Ronis

Criminal interventions

Prostitution legislation

Four categories can be used to describe variations in prostitution legislation glob-

ally [45]: (1) prohibitionist (24 countries), (2) regulation (21 countries), (3) neo-
abolitionism (6 countries) and (4) decriminalization (9 countries), with the models
defined below:

1. Prohibitionist: prostitution is illegal and both the third parties and prostitutes are
liable.
2. Regulation model: prostitution is legal and the state plays a role in its regulation.
3. Neo-Abolitionism model: only the buyer is criminalized.
4. Decriminalization model: prostitution is decriminalized and remains unregulated.

Prostitution legislation was determined through a variety of sources (e.g., gov-

ernment websites, published articles) for each country. As prostitution legislations
are considered mutually exclusive, they were each coded as dummy variables and
entered into subsequent analyses, with the three other legislation types acting as the
reference group (e.g., prohibitionist vs. regulation, neo-abolitionism and decriminal-
ization). It should be noted that allocating countries into these types of legislation is
a necessity of this type of analysis, but imposing these discrete categories may fail
to represent localised practice (e.g., the extent to which certain laws are enforced by
police; [30]).

Tier placement

Tier placement [52] refers to a government’s efforts to meet standards for the elimi-
nation of human trafficking. The U.S. Department of State reports tier placement for
every country included in the analysis.

Results

Given that human trafficking statistics are notoriously difficult to collect, the dataset
had a significant portion of missing data. Following a missing value analysis, human
trafficking in 2016 was chosen as the criterion variable, as it had the lowest percent
of missing data (6%) relative to the rates for other available years (e.g., 2014, 2015,
2017) and allowed for the most comprehensive comparison between countries. A
square root transformation was applied to the criterion variable to address skewness
and overall variability [22].
To examine the association between key social institutions via psychosocial vari-
ables (e.g., social factors that can affect an individual’s access to resources, which in
turn influence functioning) and human trafficking rates worldwide, a simultaneous

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Making a dent in human trafficking: investigating the effects…

linear regression was conducted with the following variables: GDP per capita, coun-
try tier placement, rank of GII, prostitution legislation, and national educational
achievement. The overall regression model was not significant, F(5, 47) = 0.53,
p = 0.81, with the combined set of predictors accounting only for 8% of overall var-
iance in 2016 human trafficking rates (see Table  1). Further interpretation of the
regression results is not warranted because of the non-significant finding. However,
given the questionable reliability of available human trafficking data, it is possible
that true underlying relationships among factors are lost due to inconsistency in traf-
ficking data.
To understand the magnitude of difference in likelihood between the null and
alternative hypotheses, a bayesian ANCOVA was conducted using the JASP soft-
ware. The Bayesian framework allows for a comparison of likelihood between the
null and alternative hypotheses [42]. The Bayes factor ­(BF10 = 0.03) indicated that
the alternative hypothesis is 33 times less likely than the null hypothesis. Accord-
ing to Lee and Wagenmarkers’ [34] classification scheme, this suggests very strong
evidence favoring the null hypothesis (e.g., these variables cannot accurately predict
variations in human trafficking rates).

Discussion

The explanation for statistical non-significance may lie in the questionable reli-
ability of the human trafficking data. For the statistical analyses in the current
study to have detected even a small effect, a minimum of 109 countries would
have needed to be included. Many factors contribute to unreliable human traffick-
ing data, and this issue can be broken down into several components: (1) prob-
lems with victim identification and reporting, (2) varying definitions and counts
of trafficking, (3) inconsistencies in the application of trafficking legislation, and
the creation of cultural binaries in the media, and (4) problematic human-traffick-
ing policies.

Table 1  Multiple regression Variable B SE β t p

analyses predicting 2016
reported human trafficking rates GDP per capita 0.004 .003 .49 1.266 .21
(N = 52)
Educational achievement -1.001 2.08 - .11 -0.481 .63
Gender inequality 4.424 4.38 .31 1.01 .31
Neo-abolitionism 3.82 164.53 .005 .023 .98
Legal and regulated 19.4 92.261 .042 .230 .82
Decriminalization -35.51 112.82 -.057 -.315 .75
Prohibitionista – – – – –
Tier placement 12.4 53.89 .045 .230 .82
Constant -40.365 264.679 -0.153 .87
a
 Prohibitionist was excluded from the overall regression analysis
given that this variable lacked any unique variance with the 2016
human trafficking rate when all other predictor variables were con-
sidered

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 L. A. Kabbash, S. T. Ronis

Problem with victim identification and reporting

Significant discrepancies in victim identification procedures and trafficking report-

ing exist across governments worldwide. For example, corruption within the polic-
ing system in Brazil leads to the incorrect dismissal of some sex-trafficking cases,
and some victims face prejudice from authorities if they engaged in prostitution
prior to experiencing coercive conditions [52]. This is in line with research by
Zhang and Pineda [57], which found that rates of perceived corruption are signifi-
cantly related to rates of human trafficking. Such unjust practices impede the victim
identification process, the ability of victims to obtain necessary resources, and the
collection of reliable human trafficking statistics [24]. In Germany, victim identifica-
tion outside the sex industry is often conducted by customs officials. It is common-
place for these victims of forced labor to be perceived as undeclared workers and
illegal migrants rather than as trafficking victims, which may lead to underestimates
of trafficking in the labor sector [24]. In Canada, human trafficking remains under-
reported for multiple reasons. For example, victims are usually in vulnerable posi-
tions, making it more difficult for them to report the crime to police. In addition,
traffickers may deliberately implicate victims in illegal activities to keep them from
reporting. Physical and psychological abuse techniques are utilized, and many vic-
tims distrust police because of trauma prior to being trafficked. Moreover, victims
may be unaware of their rights and have language barriers further minimizing the
likelihood of coming forward [27].
The probability of trafficking cases being identified by police is influenced by two
key factors: (1) the ability of police and law enforcement to recognize trafficking,
and (2) how victims behave when they are in contact with law enforcement. It is
nearly impossible to assess knowledge about cases not disclosed to the police, mak-
ing it difficult to pinpoint differences between victims who are and are not identified.
Furthermore, few non-governmental organizations have trained researchers at their
disposal, making it difficult for them to establish methodologically sound records
[32]. In the pursuit of more representative human trafficking statistics, training semi-
nars should be provided to key non-governmental organizations that provide victims
with needed support (e.g., Coalition to Abolish Slavery & Trafficking, Coalition
Against Trafficking in Women). In addition, further collaboration with public health
authorities may also help to identify victims through alternative pathways, which, in
turn, may lead to a more accurate representation of trafficking rates.

Inconsistencies in tabulation

Inconsistencies in tabulation of human trafficking data are also common, which, in

turn, makes comparison between countries more difficult. For example, the Peruvian
government has noted that different ministries may be collecting overlapping statis-
tics, which they are unable to disaggregate. This overlap leads to an unrepresenta-
tive number of cases being reported [52]. Differential rates of human trafficking are
provided from police-reported versus non-governmental organizations, further com-
plicating the search for truly representative data [27]. The overlap between persons

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Making a dent in human trafficking: investigating the effects…

migrating, persons exploited, victims known to non-governmental organizations,

and trafficking cases investigated by law enforcement bodies is minimal, and likely
misrepresents the “real” number of victims [32]. Furthermore, countries vary in the
legal framework utilized for trafficking, their victim identification approach, and the
amount of financial resources attributed to the trafficking cause. Despite a global
increase in identified victims in the last two decades, it remains difficult to reliably
determine whether estimates represent a minority or a large proportion of traffick-
ing victims [32, 52]. Furthermore, the low base rate for charges and convictions
based on human trafficking crimes makes it difficult to conduct statistical analyses to
identify patterns at the national and international level, preventing a more thorough
understanding.

Inconsistencies in application of trafficking legislation and cultural binaries

In many jurisdictions, prosecutors turn to tried-and-true lesser charges (e.g., prosti-

tution, pimping), and these practices result in a two-pronged outcome where offend-
ers receive less stringent sentences and cases are classified under separate offences.
For example, many human trafficking cases in Russia are identified under Article
241 (i.e., organization of prostitution; [24]). There are also significant inconsisten-
cies in the application of anti-trafficking legislation both between and within coun-
tries. For example, in New York state, human trafficking for different purposes
yields different felony charges – the purposes of commercial sexual exploitation is
considered a class B felony while labor trafficking is considered a class D felony.
The difference in maximum sentences for these crimes is 18 years (e.g., 25 vs. 7).
There are significant inconsistencies with the implementation of trafficking penal-
ties, with many traffickers failing to face any jail time. For example, in 2010, 80%
(92/115) of convicted traffickers in Germany faced no jail time. In Canada, because
it is difficult to prove human trafficking charges, a sex trade-related charge may be
pursued. This may explain the large proportion of human trafficking cases result-
ing in decisions of stayed or withdrawn [27]. Recent policy guidelines issued by the
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) have increased the likelihood
that international trafficking victims are deported, simultaneously making it more
difficult to convict traffickers and to protect the victims [44].

Variation in burden of proof requirements

Variations in burden-of-proof requirements for trafficking convictions further com-

plicate the standardization of data collection across countries. For example, in the
United Kingdom, to enforce anti-trafficking laws, prosecutors must demonstrate that
traffickers had the intent to both transport and exploit the victim. Thus, there are
situations (e.g., migrant workers who come voluntarily to the United Kingdom and
then experience involuntary servitude) in which it is difficult to prosecute traffick-
ers, perhaps because only criterion is met [24]. In 2005, the German government
amended the penal code to add new anti-trafficking laws. Of note, all persons under
the age of 21 are considered trafficking victims if they are involved in prostitution.

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 L. A. Kabbash, S. T. Ronis

Thus, there is no requirement to prove physical or mental abuse or taking advantage

of one’s helplessness due to residing in a foreign country. When victims are over the
age of 21, these criteria become necessary.

Cultural binaries

It is also important to consider the historic propensity of conflating human traffick-

ing with sex work. Some politicians frame all sex work as commercial sexual exploi-
tation, simultaneously overstating the evidence of its overlap with trafficking while
failing to acknowledge consensual sex work. This political strategy helps increase
support for legislative action controlling the sale of sex [10]. For example, the Polic-
ing and Crime Act enacted in the UK in 2009 states that buyers of sexual services
are criminally culpable even if they were unaware that the “worker” has been forced
to perform sex. This policy is problematic because it automatically depicts the sex
worker as a victim of trafficking or as an exploited prostitute, without consideration
of arguably consensual sex work.
The popular media has created a set of cultural binaries defining boundaries
between trafficking and facilitated migration, forced and free prostitution, and vic-
tims versus voluntary agents, without adequately covering the grey areas in between.
It is possible for a trafficking victim to voluntary migrate and then be coerced into
sex trafficking or forced labor, and the media scarcely provides representative cover-
age. Instead, sensationalized media around human trafficking cases creates a moral
panic around the issue, without adequately diving into push and pull factors that
influence trafficking rates [12]. Although the most common demographic for sex
trafficking (e.g., young women) mirrors the consumer preference of the wider sex
industry, this link is often overstated in the media [56].

Issues with trafficking policies

Problems with anti-trafficking policies worldwide may also be contributing to incon-

sistencies in victim identification and statistics gathering. These policies are built
typically around prevention and prosecution without adequate consideration of reha-
bilitation, reintegration, and redress for victims. For example, in Germany, only a
small proportion of identified victims receive any compensation, and those who do
receive only minimal amounts (i.e., between one and five thousand dollars; [24]).
While there remain considerable challenges to the gathering of trafficking statistics,
it is important to acknowledge the advancements made over the past two decades.
Many countries have implemented increasingly stringent penalties for trafficking
and have added new offences to aid in the apprehension of traffickers. For exam-
ple, the Canadian government implemented in 2014 new offences into their criminal
code including the prohibition of receiving material benefit from trafficking of per-
sons under 18, and withholding or destroying documents to facilitate trafficking of
persons under 18 years. Mandatory minimum penalties were imposed for all traffick-
ing offences (Sect. 279.01; [27]).

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Limitations & future directions

Although we attempted to utilize country-level statistics to provide broad insight

into patterns of human trafficking, we acknowledge inherent limitations of the cur-
rent study. Global averages can actively mask regional differences, making it dif-
ficult to highlight region-specific spikes or trends (UNODC, 2016). For example,
although the vast majority victims in Canada were in Ontario, utilizing a coun-
try-level statistic erases potentially meaningful regional variations. Considerable
within-group variation in trafficking highlights the reality that human trafficking is
not homogenous in nature [10]. More research is needed on the factors embedded in
local environments that foster human trafficking as well as differential determinants
for different forms of trafficking (e.g., sex trafficking vs. labor trafficking; domestic
vs. international trafficking; [31]).
Future research could also examine the interaction between these macro-level
predictors. It would be worth considering how an economy influences other dynamic
societal factors (e.g., opportunities for social success and incentives for criminal
behavior). For example, the economic viability of a country may impact its capac-
ity to implement and enforce policies geared towards minimizing human traffick-
ing [10]. Furthermore, a country’s social capital (i.e., levels of education) may be
related to the criminal justice system, as citizens with less access to social capital
are more likely to be entrenched within that system [14]. A better understanding of
the root causes of trafficking, and how they influence one another, can help mitigate
negative consequences (e.g., increased gang involvement, dating violence, drug use,
physical and behavioral problems; [20, 26].

Conclusion

Human trafficking is a diverse and complex phenomenon. The overall regression

model examining the effect of social factors on human trafficking rates was not sig-
nificant, F(5, 47) = 0.53, p = 0.81, with the combined set of predictors accounting
only for 8% of overall variance in 2016 human trafficking rates (see Table 1). Given
the questionable reliability of available human trafficking data, it is possible that true
underlying relationships among factors are lost due to inconsistency in trafficking
data. Many factors contribute to unreliable human trafficking data, and this issue can
be broken down into several components: (1) problems with victim identification
and reporting, (2) varying definitions and counts of trafficking, (3) inconsistencies in
the application of trafficking legislation, and the creation of cultural binaries in the
media, and (4) problematic human-trafficking policies.
Improved and standardized data collection methods are needed to allow for more
accurate comparisons between countries. Furthermore, policies tailored to differen-
tial forms of trafficking may be more effective. It is crucial to encourage consistent
and standardized gathering of human trafficking data because an inaccurate estimate
of trafficking rates is likely to result in proposed policies founded upon potentially
inaccurate statistics [32]. Moving beyond static descriptions of human trafficking,
future research goals should include gaining a better understanding of the variation

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in forms of trafficking, recruitment procedures, and redress techniques for victims.

Having more reliable and valid rates of trafficking would allow for an improved
analysis of the key social factors outlined in the current study.

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