2205825

2 hours, open book

Case-based exam (+15 mins reading time) with 3 questions:

1.(a) Firm competitive advantages and competitive priorities (10) => Session 1 + 2 Case study
(theoragnic, car lube, custom molds)
(b) SC design (with example) and goals of the efficiency curve improvement (10) => Session 7 Page 01-

**SC design: A fundamental purpose of supply chain design for manufacturers is to control inventory by
managing the flow of materials.

Pressures to create an effective supply chain are: external competitive and internal organizational
pressures

– Dynamic sales volumes – volatile brings costly

– Customer service and quality expectations –delivery

guarantee level & speed -> high cost

– Service/product proliferation -> adds complexity to SC

– Emerging markets – cost, IP

**The goal is to reduce costs and increase performance

(c) Impacts to the pandemic on logistics and SC + Recommendations (10)

2.(a) Pareto chart + Suggestion (10) => Session 4 Page 19-23

Suggestion: The firm should focus on fixing processes “Slow service” and “Cramped tables”
because these two processes account for 69.7% of the failure. They are considered the Vital
Few, and they account for the most failures (almost 80% of the failures come from 20% of the
processes). The rest of the processes are considered “Trivial Many” and don’t account for the
bulk.

(b) Plot a linear regression + Recommendations (10) => Session 8 Page 23

3. (a) Forecasting – Type of forecasting and challenges (5) => Session 8 Page 01

** Type of forecasting

-Judgment methods: use contextual knowledge gained through experience.

(including Salesforce estimates: Advantages: the salesforce is the group most likely to know which
services or products customers will be buying in the near future and in what quantities. Forecasts of
individual salesforce members can be combined easily to get regional or national sales estimates.,

Executive opinion, Market research: A systematic approach to determine external customer interest in a
service or product by creating and testing hypotheses through data-gathering surveys.

, Delphi method: A process of gaining consensus from a group of experts while maintaining

their anonymity.)

- Other methods (Causal methods, Time-series analysis, Trend projection using regression) require an
adequate history file, which might not be available.

Forecasting systems offer a variety of techniques, and no one of them is best for all items
and situations. The forecaster’s objective is to develop a useful forecast from the
information at hand with the technique that is appropriate for the different patterns of
demand. Two general types of forecasting techniques are used: judgment methods and
quantitative methods.
- Judgment methods translate the opinions of managers, expert opinions, consumer
surveys, and salesforce estimates into quantitative estimates. Quantitative methods include
causal methods, time-series analysis, and trend projection with regression.
- Causal methods use historical data on independent vari- ables, such as promotional
campaigns, economic conditions, and competitors’ actions, to predict demand.
- Time-series analysis is a statistical approach that relies heavily on historical demand data
to project the future size of demand and recognizes trends and seasonal patterns.
- Trend projection with regression is a hybrid between a time-series technique and the
causal method

(b) Forecasting – Trend projection + Multiplicative seasonal method => Session 8 Page 51-75, do again
Forecasting exercise in session 8/ Trang 324 trong textbook is Multiplicative seasonal method

(c) Aggregate Planning & Production Plan (20) => Session 9