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4-Financial Plan Overview - Notes
4-Financial Plan Overview - Notes
4-Financial Plan Overview - Notes
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Although all of your financial statements are based on the same financial data for your business, each
statement focuses on a specific aspect of your financial data with a specific purpose, level of detail,
and period of time. Financial Projections, or Pro Forma statements are your best guesses about what
your financial situation will be in the future. If you don‘t have a track record, you must project one. If
you do have a track record, you still need to tell your investor what you expect to happen. Because a
projection is a ―guess,‖ it requires you to make assumptions, such as the cost of manufacturing your
products for the next few years, or percentages of seasonal fluctuations in sales. Financial projections
justify the need for the funding you seek from your lender or investors, and document your ability to
repay it at a certain time. Financial statements provide a perspective on your costs, profits, financing
and cash requirements that can assist you in successfully planning and managing your business. While
there are many forms of financial statements, there are three fundamental financial statements
commonly used to reflect the financial health of a company. They are (1) the balance sheet, (2) the
income statement, and (3) the cash flow statement. At one time or other, any one of the following
financial statements may play a part in your financial plan:
Gross Profit Analysis
Budget
Income Statement (also called a Profit and Loss Statement)
Cash Flow Statement
Balance Sheet
Ratio Analysis
Break-Even Analysis
Personal Financial Statement
These financial statements, their usage, and their key components are described in ―Making Your
Financial Assumptions.‖ All of these statements can be generated using the Comprehensive Financial
Model included in BizPlanBuilder.
Note: Your company may not need to use all the financial statements mentioned in this
handbook, or may choose to use different forms or present them in a different order. That is up to
you and your advisors. When you assemble your plan, BizPlanBuilder will present you with a
screen listing all of the pages in your financial model – check the boxes for the pages you want
to include. The system will automatically hide the pages you did not check and then save a copy of the
Excel workbook in the “Business Plan” folder on your desktop.
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The ―Financial Statements‖ section discusses financial statements and the tools and techniques you
can use to create and analyze them. If you need further assistance with your financial statements, we
suggest you consult your financial advisor or a business analyst.
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Business Assumptions
Garbage in, garbage out… You‘ve heard that before. Begin your written Financial Plan by explaining
the major business assumptions you used to make your projections.
Note: Your business assumptions are what you must sell investors; the rest is arithmetic.
Every assumption needs to withstand the challenge, ―How do you figure that?‖ Differences
between your assumptions and those of your investors can drastically alter the outcome of your
financial picture and their perception of your business. You and your investors must agree upon
your assumptions. Your ultimate assumption is that there is demand for your product or service by
enough customers who you can reach easily and sell to economically, and, who will ultimately
provide the cash to repay the loan or investment you are seeking. The deal is won or lost in the
assumptions. Financial projections are just the arithmetic that play out what might happen next. ~
Burke Franklin from the book, Business Black Belt
A business assumption is any condition that you believe to be true based on your research and
analysis. For example, you may assume that you will reduce your cost of goods by obtaining a volume
discount on supplies. Other assumptions may have to do with federal interest rates or the condition of
the general economy. Still others may include the availability of a fully staffed and trained production
facility, ready to do business by a certain date. The validity of your assumption affects the attainment
of financial goals. Some of your goals might be achieving self-supporting profitability, or reaching the
break-even point, or selling the business outright, or conducting an offering of public stocks.
It is usually assumed that your costs, including labor, will increase by the general inflation rate.
Hopefully, costs will also be decreased by volume discounts and better negotiations with suppliers. If
costs are shown to be level or decreasing, comment on that fact and explain the underlying reasons.
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Are Your Financial Projections Believable?
Many people think a set of financial projections is a business plan. Wrong. Experienced business
people know that no matter how honest and forthright your financial projection is, it cannot present
the full picture. To achieve credibility for your financial projections, be prepared to demonstrate an
understanding of your market, describe your product or service in detail, formulate your marketing
strategy, outline your promotion and sales plans, and most importantly, introduce the management
team responsible for using the capital and driving your business toward success, the financials
demonstrate the viability of your business, but each element of your plan makes a difference to the
success or failure.
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Learned the hard way:
You may be tempted to inflate your sales projections, play down your costs and show big profits.
After all, you want to show the true promise of your business. It takes longer and costs more than you
think. Investors, bankers, experts and seasoned business managers all know this. Many professional
venture investors will write their term sheet based upon what you said you would do. If you fall short
by a certain milestone, they can ―cram you down‖ (the missed milestone triggers their ability to take a
larger percentage of your business at your next funding round). Project only what you are certain you
can deliver. Be conservative (just never say, ―we are being conservative‖ investors hear that all too
often and it‘s well known as a ―big lie‖). You must understand the dynamics of your numbers! When
you meet your projections—you‘re a hero. Money will continue to flow your way and you call the
shots. Miss by just 1% and… (Most investors will not tell you this—they can anticipate your error and
plan to take advantage of you when you are down.)
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Basic Financial Statements
Basic Financial Statements are individual statements, and are typically most useful for 1- to 5-person
businesses, where complex job-costing is not a factor. You may only need one or two of the
statements, depending on what you need to accomplish with your plan. There are several other useful
tools for service-oriented businesses in this section as well. Unless you really want just one or two
statements to customize, I would pass over these in favor of the Service /Loan Financial Model.
The Basic Statements give you several very useful options, such as options for Sole Proprietor,
Corporation or Partnership structures in the Balance Sheet; choice of a Product- or Service-based
business in the Income Statement (Profit & Loss); and a layout option for portrait or landscape in the
Cash Flow Projections. Click on the tab at the bottom of the statement for the option you want.
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Budget
The budget forecasts detailed revenue and expenses month-by-month over a year. It is used primarily
for internal purposes. You may not want to include your Budget in your business plan package;
instead, include the monthly as well as the 1-5 year Income Statement which summarizes your
expenses. During your presentation, you may want to have the Budget handy, and be prepared to
discuss it.
Income Statements
An income statement is a record of financial performance over time separated into income and
expenses to arrive at net income (or loss). Include all three versions (Year 1 by Month, Years 2-3 by
Quarter, and Years 1-5) in your Supporting Documents. Comment on any large items or changes,
such as R&D or marketing expenses that are large in your first few months (especially as a percentage
of sales revenue), but taper off over time.
Balance Sheets
Comment on any large or unusual items, such as other current assets, other assets, other accounts
payable, or accrued liabilities. Shows what you own and owe and the difference which is the net
worth or equity of the company. You should include all three versions (Year 1 by Month, Years 2-3
by Quarter, and Years 1-5) in your Supporting Documents.
Break-Even Analysis
The Break-Even Analysis gives you and your investors the sales level at which your business must
operate in order to break even. You should include this in your Supporting Documents.
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Capital Requirements
Determining capital requirements begins with the question: ―How much money do I need?‖ In order
to estimate your capital requirements, you will need to consider each of the potential uses for the
financing funds, including (but not limited to): research and development, fixed asset purchases, and
working capital. As you analyze each, you need to project how much money you need, when you‘ll
need it, and what type of financing is most appropriate for each.
Other Considerations
Many traditional lenders require businesses to have several continuously profitable quarters before
they will consider granting a business loan. This has created a market for banks that specialize in
loaning money to start-ups and other companies without several quarters of continuous profitability.
They tend to charge higher rates and have some creative packages that may include stock or warrants.
Lenders may want personal guarantees from you and any other primary owners to ensure that you will
do everything possible to repay the loan. If you are looking for new ownership investment,
prospective investors will expect a clear representation of how their equity will be defined based on
their investment. You will also need to define what security, equity, stock, collateral or personal
guarantees you will offer for their investment. In this section of your plan, the amount of investment
and its form is simply stated as a fact. Describe the operating requirements for the five years that have
been projected in your financial
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statements. Your operating working capital is defined as your accounts receivable plus your inventory
minus your accounts payable. This can be calculated for each of the five years from the values on
your Balance Sheet for years one to five. Recap the total short-term and long-term loan requirements
for the five-year period, and for each of the five years. Discuss the level of safety for this loan or
investment—lenders need to see a variety of ways their money will be paid back to feel comfortable
loaning it to you.
NOTE: If you are searching for financing for your business, see “65 Ways to Finance Your
Business” for more information on the subject of raising capital.
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"How do I get out of this investment and make money?"
Investors have an interest in cash. Let‘s say they invest $100,000. If we assume they‘re looking for
30% per year for three years, they‘re going to be looking to get $219,700 back, in cash. Having
$219,700 worth of equity [stock] in your company doesn‘t let them finance their next deal; they want
cash.
"Is the net income here going to offer a return that makes sense for the investment
required on a risk adjusted basis?"
If you‘re going to offer someone a $5,000 return on a $100,000 investment every year and there is
some risk, it doesn‘t make any sense for them financially. They could do almost as well at a bank or
with government guaranteed securities. Most likely you will be able to sell your business – and this is
what investors are most likely going to believe. The problem is that you may not want to sell a hot,
profitable business. However, we‘ve heard enough stories of offers to buy companies, owners wanting
more, the world changes, the deal goes away and the next best thing is a struggling company short on
prospects only to eventually sell at 1/10 the original offer. You may do well to get some help with the
math at the moment of truth and strongly consider selling as a viable strategy you can embrace.
(Investors can tell if you are sincere about the exit…) The PowerPoint show in BizPlanBuilder has
you show some potential buyers and prices they may pay. Another creative option, perhaps better
suited for an angel investor might be something like this: Using a convertible note*, offer 20%
interest on the invested money if you pay it back in full within 12 months… after that, the investor
gets x% of the profit (or revenue) going forward, plus warrants (options) to buy x number of shares at
a certain price. You can vary the ownership, revenue-share any way you like. Interest compounds for
year two, but if paid back by the end of year two, calculate the interest due by the
20% compounded. And so on…*Investor can choose to convert the loan to an equity investment,
based upon a predetermined stock. pricing formula (say 2x revenue / shares outstanding = price/share)
The idea here is to make an attractive short-term offer to an angel investor with an obvious incentive
for you to pay him/her back ASAP, plus they share in the upside down the road. (Angels hate risking
their capital, but can be flexible with the upside reward—so show them how they will get their
original investment back soon as well as enjoy some fun down the road. We‘re just being creative
here… you must remember that if you do a wacky deal to get your business off the ground (you won‘t
be the first!), that you must leave room for follow-on investors to come in and take you to the next
level. Included with your angel deal, say something like, ―with the first institutional round of $500K+,
angel agrees to abide by the terms and conditions of the…‖ For any angel, having professional
venture capitalists come in, it‘s a beautiful thing. VCs, while they may appreciate the angel funding
your start-up, sometimes find that angels can be a problem going forward. Make sure that your
attorney drafts your deal with your angel investor to accommodate future investors.
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Conclusion
The conclusion is where you summarize your Financial Plan. This is the time and the place to ask for
the cash. Be concise, be direct, be professional, be sincere, and ask for either a signature or a list of
additional items to be provided or steps to be completed to get a signature. Be specific.
Top-Down Projection
Most of the Assumptions pages include a table at the top of each one enabling you to enter a cost
assumption based upon a percentage of your overall revenue. This way, except for the HR
Assumptions (because you want to manage your staffing a little more personally than other expenses),
all of your expenses can ‗float‘ depending upon your revenue projections. If you are a start-up, you
will likely not yet have revenue and must enter your numbers from the bottom-up – those numbers
will override the numbers generated from the percentages tables.
Bottom-Up Projection
While you will want to start with the top-down approach, you can then make adjustments from the
bottom-up—enter actual numbers for expenses you will need to achieve certain objectives. These can
be certain investments in product development, inventory, marketing, etc. which may not be included
in the Capital Requirements page. Simply click on a cell in the assumptions worksheet and enter the
number. For example you may want to budget a key-word ad campaign in Google starting in Jan,
click cell B46 on the ―Assumptions – Marketing‖ page and enter $1,000.
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