Department of Transport and Supply Chain Management

Demand Planning
DDPLMY3
LEARNING GUIDE 2023
ITS/ORACLE NO.: 70794/14.SM000859

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 Table of Contents
1 SECTION A: ADMINISTRATIVE AND ORGANISATIONAL INFORMATION....................................... 3

1.1 WELCOME ....................................................................................................................... 3

1.2 CONTACT DETAILS ........................................................................................................... 3
1.2.1 LECTURER ......................................................................................................................................... 3
1.2.2 ADMINISTRATORS.................................................................................ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED.
1.2.3 CONSULTING TIMES ............................................................................................................................ 3

2 SECTION B: FACILITATION OF LEARNING ................................................................................... 4

2.1 OVERVIEW OF DEMAND PLANNING.................................................................................... 4

2.2 PRESCRIBED LEARNING MATERIAL .................................................................................... 5
2.3 PROPOSED METHOD OF STUDY ......................................................................................... 5

3 SECTION C: MODULE SPECIFICATIONS ...................................................................................... 8

3.1 LEARNING UNITS ........................................................................................................... 10

3.1.1 LEARNING UNIT 1: DEMAND PLANNING ............................................................................................... 10
3.1.2 LEARNING UNIT 2: DEMAND MANAGEMENT ......................................................................................... 11
3.1.3 LEARNING UNIT 3: POINT-OF-SALE (POS) BASED DEMAND PLANNING....................................................... 12
3.1.4 LEARNING UNIT 4: FUNDAMENTALS OF DEMAND FORECASTING ............................................................... 13
3.1.5 LEARNING UNIT 5: FUNDAMENTALS OF SUPPLY PLANNING ...................................................................... 14
3.1.6 LEARNING UNIT 6: FORECAST MODELS................................................................................................. 15
3.1.7 LEARNING UNIT 7: FORECAST PROCESS (FROM SILO TO COLLABORATION) .................................................. 16
3.1.8 LEARNING UNIT 8: COLLABORATIVE PLANNING, FORECASTING AND REPLENISHMENT (CPFR) ........................ 17
3.1.9 LEARNING UNIT 9: THE SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING (S&OP) PROCESS ............................................ 18
3.1.10 LEARNING UNIT 10: BUILDING COLLABORATION .................................................................................... 19
3.2 ASSESSMENT ................................................................................................................ 20
3.2.1 GENERAL INFORMATION .................................................................................................................... 20
3.2.2 EXAMINATION ENTRANCE REQUIREMENTS ........................................................................................... 20
3.2.3 PROMOTION REQUIREMENTS............................................................................................................. 20
3.2.4 SUMMATIVE ASSESSMENTS ............................................................................................................... 20
3.2.5 EXAMINATION ................................................................................................................................. 21
3.2.6 SUPPLEMENTARY EXAMINATIONS CRITERIA ........................................................................................... 22
3.3 ACCREDITATION/MODERATION ........................................................................................ 22
3.4 ANNEXURES .................................................................................................................. 23
3.4.1 SUMMATIVE ASSESSMENT 2023 ......................................................................................................... 23
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1 SECTION A: ADMINISTRATIVE AND
ORGANISATIONAL INFORMATION
1.1 Welcome
On behalf of the Department of Transport and Supply Chain Management we would like to welcome
you as a student to the Diploma in Logistics Management. We hope by studying for this qualification
you will not only gain academic knowledge, but experience personal growth and development. Our aim
is that your choice of study will be regarded as the trademark of excellence so that our graduates are
not just employable but sought after by employers.

1.2 Contact details

1.2.1 Lecturer

Learning units Lecturer Office

• Learning Unit 1: Demand Planning
• Learning Unit 2: Demand management

• Learning Unit 3: Point-of-sale (POS) based demand planning

• Learning Unit 4: Fundamentals of demand forecasting

• Learning Unit 5: Fundamentals of supply planning

Dr S
• Learning Unit 6: Forecast models Off Campus
Carstens
• Learning Unit 7: Forecast process (from silo to collaboration)

• Learning Unit 8: Collaborative planning, forecasting and

replenishment (CPFR)
• Learning Unit 9: The sales and operations planning (S&OP)
process
• Learning Unit 10: Building collaboration

Administrators
Position Name Office Tel number E-mail address
Administrative D- Ring
Ms Pinky Mnisi 011 5593733 kgmnisi@uj.ac.za
Assistant 733 I, APK

1.2.2 Consulting times

For academic enquiries, send a well formulated email to bkubheka@uj.ac.za to enable a response to
your enquiry. This email should include the student number, initials and surname, name of module,
assignment number and detailed information on the assistance required.

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 THE UNIVERSITY RESERVES THE RIGHT TO AMEND ENROLMENT REQUIREMENTS, TIMETABLE
AND PROGRAMME CONTENTS AS AND WHEN THE NEED ARISES, WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. CEP
PROGRAMMES WILL CONTINUE DESPITE NATIONAL DISASTERS, THE MODE OF DELIVERY MAY
HOWEVER CHANGE.

2 SECTION B: FACILITATION OF LEARNING

2.1 Overview of Demand Planning
The study field of Logistics Management encompasses a total system approach to the management of
all those activities involved in physically moving materials and finished goods inventory from point of
origin to point of use or consumption.
In a globally competitive economy, enterprises must pay continuous attention to increasing
responsiveness to changes in customer demand and to maintenance of a competitive advantage over
their rivals. As part of this constant review and search for improvement, supply chain management has
become an area of study, since it focuses on material, information and cash flows from vendors to
customers or vice versa.
A supply chain is an integrated process wherein raw materials are manufactured into final products,
then delivered to customers (via distribution, retail or both). The supply chain contains four echelons
(supply, manufacturing, distribution and consumers), where each level (or echelon) of the chain may
comprise numerous facilities.
The supply chain is an inter-linked set of relationships connecting customer to supplier, through a
number of intermediate stages such as manufacturing, warehousing and distribution. The reason for
considering it as a single chain is so that the flow of material, money and information can be effectively
managed to meet the business requirements.
The purpose of this module is to highlight the importance of demand planning at strategic, tactical and
operational level in logistics and to develop an understanding of and competencies in the management
and application of demand planning processes and mechanisms.
The module has been divided into 10 learning units:
• Learning Unit 1: Demand Planning
• Learning Unit 2: Demand management
• Learning Unit 3: Point-of-sale (POS) based demand planning
• Learning Unit 4: Fundamentals of demand forecasting
• Learning Unit 5: Fundamentals of supply planning
• Learning Unit 6: Forecast models
• Learning Unit 7: Forecast process (from silo to collaboration)
• Learning Unit 8: Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR)
• Learning Unit 9: The sales and operations planning (S&OP) process
• Learning Unit 10: Building collaboration

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Each Learning unit has appropriate outcomes. The aim of the outcomes is twofold:
To serve as a guideline for your preparation of the scheduled work so that you can participate
meaningfully in the class discussion.
To serve as a guideline for the compilation of your own core notes in which you will strive to
attain the outcomes of every learning unit.

2.2 Recommended learning material

Chopra, S & Meindl, P.2013. Supply Chain Management. Strategy, Planning and Operation.
Pearson Prentice Hall 2013
Jain, CL & Malehorn, J. 2012. Fundamentals of demand planning & forecasting. Graceway
Publishing Company.2012
Wisner, J.D., Leong, G.K. & Tan, K.2005. Principles of Supply Chain Management: A Balanced
Approach. Thomson South-Western.2005
Li, L.2008. Supply Chain Management: Concepts, Techniques and Practices. World Scientific
Publishing Co. Pte.Ltd.
Bowersox, D.J., Closs, D.J. & Cooper, M.B. 2007. Supply Chain Logistics Management. Mc
Graw-Hill.
Simon, R. 2009. The ABCs of Point of sale (POS) data. The Journal of Business Forecasting.
Supply Chain Best Practice: Demand Planning Using Point of Sale Data. An Oracle White Paper
October 2006.

2.3 Proposed method of study

Learning will be conducted within a lecture situation and primarily through self-study by using the
prescribed learning material, this learning guide and the lecturer’s notes/slides.
The formal work programme for this module is divided into learning units. The module learning
outcomes will be provided in the Academic Specification table and the learning unit outcomes at the
beginning of each learning unit. This will enable you to know what is expected of you in each learning
unit. At the end of each learning unit, you will find a number of assessment questions, which will enable
you to reach the learning outcomes.
You should know exactly what is expected of you in the outcomes and assessment when certain verbs
are used in questions. The required response to each verb can be classified according to its level of
difficulty, but often differs only in degree.
A table of action verbs, requiring a response varying from least difficult (knowledge) to most difficult
(evaluation), is provided:

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The required response to each verb would be:
COMPETENCY ACTION VERB
Knowledge Name, list, identify, define, state
Explain, discuss, interpret, classify, indicate,
Insight/Comprehension
describe, specify

Application Determine, demonstrate, illustrate, calculate, draw

Differentiate, distinguish, analyse, compare,

Analysis
contrast
Construct, formulate, recommend, integrate,
Synthesis
agree/disagree, develop, criticise
Indicate choice and motivate, debate, assess,
Evaluation
contest
Name
To name means that the required information should be provided in the form of single words
or short sentences, preferably numbered.

Define
This requires giving the precise meaning of a concept; very often definitions have to be
memorised verbatim (word for word).

Explain
An explanation requires that a certain outcome be made clear, often with the use of a
diagram. Clarify or give reasons for something, usually in your own words.

Describe
To describe is to say exactly what something is like; to give an account of the characteristics
or nature of something; to explain how something works. No opinion or argument is normally
needed.

Discuss
To discuss is to comment on something in your own words. This often requires debating two
viewpoints or two separate possibilities.

Compare/Contrast
In this case point out the similarities and differences between objects, ideas or points of view.
When you compare two or more objects you should do so systematically – completing one
aspect at a time.

Distinguish
To distinguish is to point out the differences between objects, different ideas or points of
view. This usually requires you to use your own words.

Demonstrate
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 To demonstrate means to include and discuss examples. You have to prove that you
understand how a process works or how a concept is applied by giving examples of real-life
situations.

Analyse
Analysing means to identify parts or elements of a concept and describing them one by one.

Criticise
This means that you should indicate whether you agree or disagree with a particular
statement or view. You should then describe what you agree/disagree with and give reasons
for your view.

Reference (example)
Smith, D.P.J. 1996. Orientation in aspects of education. Johannesburg: UJ.

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3 Section C: Module Specifications
Module name Demand Planning
Module code DDPLMY3
NQF level 6
Credits 26
Learning Unit 1: Demand Planning

Learning Unit 2: Demand management

Learning Unit 3: Point-of-sale (POS) based demand planning

Learning Unit 4: Fundamentals of demand forecasting

Learning Unit 5: Fundamentals of supply planning

Learning
units Learning Unit 6: Forecast models

Learning Unit 7: Forecast process (from silo to collaboration)

Learning Unit 8: Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR)

Learning Unit 9: The sales and operations planning (S&OP) process

Learning Unit 10: Building collaboration

The purpose of this module is to:

Module highlight the importance of demand planning at strategic, tactical and operational
purpose level in logistics and to develop an understanding of and competencies in the
management and application of demand planning processes and mechanisms
Outcomes: Assessment Criteria:
At the end of this module it is expected that students Students will be competent if they are able to:
will be able to:
Outcome 1 1.1 explain the elements of demand planning
that need to be managed
demonstrate an understanding of demand 1.2 explain the need to establish business
planning and the purpose it serves in a company policies to run an effective and efficient
demand planning process
1.3 understand the sources of POS data
1.4 explain the benefits of POS-based demand
forecasts
Outcome 2 2.1 understand the fundamentals of demand
forecasting
demonstrate an understanding of the
2.2 understand the fundamentals of supply
fundamentals of demand forecasting and supply
planning
planning

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 Outcome 3
demonstrate an understanding of simple
regression analysis as forecasting technique
and forecasting processes
Outcome 4
display knowledge of the sales and operations
planning (S&OP) process
Outcome 5
display knowledge of collaboration in the
demand planning process
3.1 calculate and interpret a demand forecast
using the simple regression analysis method
3.2 calculate and interpret the accuracy of the
calculated demand forecasts
3.3 explain the importance of a consensus
forecast, as well as the associated process
3.4 explain what the bullwhip effect is and its
effect on demand forecasts
3.5 explain the importance of collaboration for
building an efficient and effective forecasting
process
3.6 explain how the CPFR process works, as
well as the key ingredients of a successful
CPFR process
4.1 explain the role of S&OP in the supply chain
4.2 explain the aggregate planning problem
4.3 explain the aggregate planning strategies
4.4 explain how S&OP is implemented in
practice
5.1 explain the lack of supply chain
coordination and the bullwhip effect
5.2 explain the impact of poor coordination on
performance
5.3 understand the obstacles to coordination in
the supply chai
5.4 understand the actions by management that
could lead to improved coordination in the
supply chain
5.5 explain how coordination could be achieved
in practice

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3.1 Learning Units
3.1.1 Learning Unit 1: Demand Planning
3.1.1.1 Learning support material
Jain, CL & Malehorn, J. 2012. Fundamentals of demand planning & forecasting. Graceway
Publishing Company.2012 (page 26 - 38)
3.1.1.2 Purpose
The purpose of Learning Unit 1 is to introduce the concept of demand planning, including the
requirements and business policies associated with demand planning.
3.1.1.3 Outcomes and assessment criteria
OUTCOMES ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
After completing this learning unit, you After completing this learning unit, you should
should: be able to:

demonstrate an understanding of • explain the requirements of demand

demand planning and the purpose planning that need to be managed
it serves in a company • explain the need to establish business
policies to run an effective and efficient
demand planning process

Also consult self-assessment questions in learning material: Learning Unit 1

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3.1.2 Learning Unit 2: Demand management
3.1.2.1 Learning support material
Jain, CL & Malehorn, J. 2012. Fundamentals of demand planning & forecasting. Graceway
Publishing Company.2012 (page 26-38)
3.1.2.2 Purpose
The purpose of Learning Unit 2 is to introduce the concept of demand management including the
objective and the various aspects of demand that need to managed
3.1.2.3 Outcomes and assessment criteria
OUTCOMES ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
After completing this learning unit, you After completing this learning unit, you should
should: be able to:

demonstrate an understanding of • explain the objectives of demand

demand management and the management
purpose it serves in a company • discuss the aspects of demand that need
to managed

Also consult self-assessment questions in learning material: Learning Unit 2

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3.1.3 Learning Unit 3: Point-of-sale (POS) based demand planning
3.1.3.1 Learning support material
Simon, R. 2009. The ABCs of Point of sale (POS) data. The Journal of Business Forecasting.
Supply Chain Best Practice: Demand Planning Using Point of Sale Data. An Oracle White
Paper October 2006.
3.1.3.2 Purpose
The purpose of Learning Unit 3 is to discuss the sources of data for demand planning and explain the
benefits of point-of-sale (POS) data.
3.1.3.3 Outcomes and assessment criteria
OUTCOMES ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
After completing this learning unit, you After completing this learning unit, you should
should: be able to:

understand the need for point-of- • understand the sources of POS data
sale demand planning and the • explain the benefits of POS-based
benefits of using POS data demand forecasts
• explain the future of POS data

Also consult self-assessment questions in learning material: Learning Unit 3

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3.1.4 Learning Unit 4: Fundamentals of demand forecasting
3.1.4.1 Learning support material
Jain, CL & Malehorn, J. 2012. Fundamentals of demand planning & forecasting. Graceway
Publishing Company.2012 (page 18 -25)
3.1.4.2 Purpose
The purpose of Learning Unit 4 is to highlight the characteristics of demand forecasts.
3.1.4.3 Outcomes and assessment criteria
OUTCOMES ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
After completing this learning unit, you After completing this learning unit, you should
should: be able to:

demonstrate an understanding of the explain the fundamentals (characteristics)

fundamentals of demand forecasting of demand forecasting

Also consult self-assessment questions in learning material: Learning Unit 4

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3.1.5 Learning Unit 5: Fundamentals of supply planning
3.1.5.1 Learning support material
Jain, CL & Malehorn, J. 2012. Fundamentals of demand planning & forecasting. Graceway
Publishing Company.2012 (page 23-25)
3.1.5.2 Purpose
The purpose of Learning Unit 5 is to explain the impact of operational demand forecasts on supply
planning.
3.1.5.3 Outcomes and assessment criteria
OUTCOMES ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
After completing this learning unit, you After completing this learning unit, you should
should: be able to:

demonstrate an understanding of the explain the impact of operational demand

fundamentals of supply planning forecasts on supply planning

Also consult self-assessment questions in learning material: Learning Unit 5

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3.1.6 Learning Unit 6: Forecast models
3.1.6.1 Learning support material
Jain, CL & Malehorn, J. 2012. Fundamentals of demand planning & forecasting. Graceway
Publishing Company.2012 (page 128 -143)
Wisner, J.D., Leong, G.K. & Tan, K.2005. Principles of Supply Chain Management: A
Balanced Approach. Thomson South-Western.2005
Pienaar, W.J. & Vogt, J.J. 2015: Business Logistics Management. Oxford University Press.
2015
3.1.6.2 Purpose
The purpose of Learning Unit 6 is to explain forecasting focusing on the types of forecasts, regression
analysis and measures of forecast accuracy
3.1.6.3 Outcomes and assessment criteria
OUTCOMES ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
After completing this learning unit, you After completing this learning unit, you should
should: be able to:

demonstrate an understanding of explain the different types of forecasts

the types of forecasts, simple
regression analysis and measures
of forecast accuracy
calculate and interpret a demand forecast
using the simple regression analysis
method
calculate and interpret the accuracy of the
demand forecasts

Also consult self-assessment questions in learning material: Learning Unit 6

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3.1.7 Learning Unit 7: Forecast process (from silo to collaboration)
3.1.7.1 Learning support material
Jain, CL & Malehorn, J. 2012. Fundamentals of demand planning & forecasting. Graceway
Publishing Company.2012 (page 66 - 71)
Wisner, J.D., Leong, G.K. & Tan, K.2005. Principles of Supply Chain Management: A
Balanced Approach. Thomson South-Western.2005
3.1.7.2 Purpose
The purpose of Learning Unit 7 is to explain the changes in the forecasting strategy and the necessity
of a silo to collaboration forecasting process to obtain a consensus forecast.
3.1.7.3 Outcomes and assessment criteria
OUTCOMES ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
After completing this learning unit, you After completing this learning unit, you should
should: be able to:

demonstrate an understanding of the discuss the changes in the forecasting

changes in the forecasting strategy and strategy
the silo to collaboration forecasting
discuss the collaborative forecasting process
process
Also consult self-assessment questions in learning material: Learning Unit 7

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3.1.8 Learning Unit 8: Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR)
3.1.8.1 Learning support material
Wisner, J.D., Leong, G.K. & Tan, K.2005. Principles of Supply Chain Management: A
Balanced Approach. Thomson South-Western.2005 (page 143-153)
3.1.8.2 Purpose
The purpose of Learning Unit 8 is to explain the CPFR process including the objectives, benefits, a
process model, challenges associated with the approach, the ingredients of a successful CPFR process
and the future of CPFR
3.1.8.3 Outcomes and assessment criteria
OUTCOMES ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
After completing this learning unit, you After completing this learning unit, you should
should: be able to:

demonstrate an understanding of the explain the objectives and benefits of the

CPFR process CPFR process
describe the CPFR process
discuss the challenges associated with
the CPFR process
discuss the ingredients of a successful
CPFR process
explain the future of CPFR

Also consult self-assessment questions in learning material: Learning Unit 8

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3.1.9 Learning Unit 9: The sales and operations planning (S&OP) process
3.1.9.1 Learning support material
Chopra, S & Meindl, P.2013. Supply Chain Management. Strategy, Planning and Operation.
Pearson Prentice Hall 2013 (page211-229)
Jain, CL & Malehorn, J. 2012. Fundamentals of demand planning & forecasting. Graceway
Publishing Company.2012 (page 72-78 and 80-84)
3.1.9.2 Purpose
The purpose of Learning Unit 9 describe the aggregate planning process and strategies, as well as the
sales and operations planning process
3.1.9.3 Outcomes and assessment criteria
OUTCOMES ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
After completing this learning unit, you After completing this learning unit, you should
should: be able to:

understand the aggregate planning explain the objectives of aggregate

process and strategies planning

display knowledge of the sales and
operations planning (S&OP) process
discuss the different aggregate planning
strategies
discuss the role of IT in aggregate
planning
explain how you would implement
aggregate planning in practice
explain the objectives of S&OP
discuss the S&OP process
discuss the ingredients for a successful
S&OP process
complete an aggregate production plan
based on the three aggregate planning
strategies

Also consult self-assessment questions in learning material: Learning Unit 9

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3.1.10 Learning Unit 10: Building collaboration
3.1.10.1 Learning support material
Chopra, S & Meindl, P.2013. Supply Chain Management. Strategy, Planning and Operation.
Pearson Prentice Hall 2013 (page 250 - 269)
3.1.10.2 Purpose
The purpose of Learning Unit 10 is to explain the importance of coordination in the supply chain and
how to achieve collaboration in practice
3.1.10.3 Outcomes and assessment criteria
OUTCOMES ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
After completing this learning unit, you After completing this learning unit, you should
should: be able to:

understand the importance of explain the impact of poor coordination on

coordination in the supply chain and
explain how to achieve collaboration
in practice
performance
explain the obstacles to coordination in
the supply chain
discuss the actions by management that
could lead to improved coordination in the
supply chain
explain how collaboration could be
achieved in practice

Also consult self-assessment questions in learning material: Learning Unit 10

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3.2 Assessment

3.2.1 General information

Assessment comprises a 2-hour written examination and ONE written assignment.
Compilation of SEMESTER mark for this module:
Class test 10% of semester mark
Assignment (100 marks) 30% of semester mark

Total 40% (Weighting of 40%)

Compilation of FINAL mark for this module:

Semester mark weighting 40%
Examination mark weighting 60%
Final mark 100%

3.2.2 Examination entrance requirements

• Students are required to submit the assignment in order to be allowed to write the examination.
3.2.3 Promotion requirements
• Passing the module:

o A subminimum of 40% is required in the examination paper in order to pass a module.

o A combined final mark of 50% is required to pass a module.

o A module is passed with distinction if a final mark of at least 75% is obtained.

o The class test and assignment mark count 40% and the examination mark count 60%
towards the final mark.

3.2.4 Summative assessments

This section should be read in conjunction with the reference manual

• You are required to submit ONE INDIVIDUAL assignment for this module that will contribute
30% towards your final mark.
o The Class test will ONLY be written during the study school. This class test contributes 10%
to the semester mark.
o SUMMATIVE ASSESSMENTS will cover ALL work in learning material

3.2.4.1 Summative assessment rules

All summative assessments are individual summative assessments unless clearly stated
otherwise. Disciplinary steps will be taken against students who submit copies of the same
summative assessment.

Page 20 of 26 DDPLMY3
By signing the Plagiarism Declaration COVER PAGE on blackboard you confirm that the
ASSIGNMENT is your own work. The University views plagiarism as a serious offence and
students found guilty will face strict penalties.
Assignments may not be faxed or mailed electronically to the department.
Assignments will only be marked after the due date of a particular assignment.
Assignment marks and the memorandum will be uploaded on blackboard approximately one
month after the due date. Students are urged to refrain from enquiring before that period.
Assignment marks will, under no circumstances, be provided to students telephonically.
IMPORTANT NOTICE:

3.2.5 Examination
This section should be read in conjunction with the Reference Manual.
Examination timetable details will be placed on uLink/BLACKBOARD.
You are compelled to take the examination on the scheduled date.
One official written examination has been scheduled. Please verify your examination dates in
the Reference Manual.
Special examination opportunities are considered for students who, in the event of illness, for
compassionate reasons, work-related reasons, were prevented from writing the main
examination opportunity. No supplementary examination is applicable for students who wrote
a special examination. Students may be granted a special examination opportunity if they
apply for it within seven days after the original date of the relevant examination opportunity.
The application form for the January examination (Application for supplementary
examinations: Annexure C in the Reference Manual) must be completed in full and
substantiating documentation must be attached to the application form before submission.
Incomplete applications will not be considered. Only one supplementary (special)
examination will be arranged and will cover all the work. Please verify the date of
supplementary (special) examination.
It is of utmost importance to familiarise yourself with the examination rules as contained in the
Reference Manual. The University of Johannesburg places a high premium on the integrity of
its programmes and examination procedures and views dishonesty as serious offences and
students found guilty will face strict penalties.
The taking of a number of examinations in the same day/week may not be offered as an
excuse for missing an examination. Therefore, you must plan your preparation in such a way
as to make provision for a full study programme and examination period. Regular preparation
is essential for you to master all your work.

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3.2.6 Supplementary examinations criteria
A student may be granted a supplementary examination opportunity in accordance with
the criteria determined by the Faculty Board and contained in the Faculty Rules and
Regulations. Supplementary examination results are combined with the module mark for
calculation of the final mark. A supplementary examination opportunity is granted if a
student:
Failed a module but obtained a final module mark of at least 40%
Failed a module after writing the examination but obtained a semester mark of at least
60%.

3.3 Accreditation/moderation
An internal examiner with required qualifications and job-related or learning area experience will
be appointed for this module by the Department of Transport and Supply Chain Management.
Once the internal examiner has assessed your examination, the Department will complete its
own internal auditing before results are made public.

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3.4 Annexures
3.4.1 Assignment 2023
Summative assessment
NB - Follow summative assessment guidelines as provided in Learner Guide.
NB – No group work.
NB – Plagiarism policies are strictly followed at UJ – take care not to plagiarise.
DIPLOMA IN LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT 2023
Demand Planning (DDPLMY3)

PART A: MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTIONS

Please note that Part A questions have been uploaded on Blackboard and should be
accessed and completed there.

PART B: DISCUSSION QUESTIONS

Question 31 [14 MARKS]

Consider the quarterly sales (number of units) for a certain product for the past six quarters as
follows:
Year Quarter Sales
2022 1 2305
2 2640
3 2800
4 2550
2023 1 2600
2 2900

31.1 Calculate the parameter estimates associated with the trend line that will allow you to
forecast sales for the last 2 quarters of 2023. (8)
31.2 Calculate the sales forecast for quarters 3 and 4 of 2023. (4)
31.3 Suppose the following sales predictions based on trend regression analysis are available:

Year Quarter Sales predictions

2022 1 2446
2 2521
3 2595
4 2670
2023 1 2446
2 2521

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 How accurate would forecasts based on this trend line be in terms of the mean absolute
deviation? (2)

Question 32 [10 MARKS]

A company needs to forecast sales of a specific product for 2023 and they have obtained past sales
figures for 6 years. It is their intention to use linear regression and they have obtained the associated
values of two variables, V1 and V2, which they believe may be used as independent variables to
forecast sales as shown below:
Year Sales V1 V2
2017 36 9 3
2018 44 10 5
2019 48 12 8
2020 63 16 11
2021 70 18 13
2022 56 15 18

The scatter plots associated with each of these variables are as follows:

In addition, the correlation coefficients between sales and each of these variables are as follows:
Correlation(sales; V1) 0.99
Correlation (sales; V2) 0.75

Assist the company to forecast sales for 2023 if the following variable values for 2023 were
determined:
V1 19
V2 20

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 Question 33 [12 MARKS]
The demand planner at a company needs to assist the production manager to develop an aggregate
production plan. Following a consensus forecasting process the following statistical forecasts for the
first six months of the following year were obtained:
Month Demand Forecast
January 7500
February 7800
March 7900
April 7700
May 7850
June 8100

However, the demand planner is aware that external factors, not included in the statistical forecasts,
may influence the demand forecasts. As part of a CPFR process, the demand planner managed to
obtain the following additional information:
• The sales department indicates that the sales in January is generally lower and suggests
that the statistical forecast for January needs to be adjusted by 5%.
• Marketing is planning a promotional campaign March sales are expected to increase by 10%
for the month.
• One of the key customers is planning start a revamp of one store in May which will result in
the store being closed for three months. This will reduce the total number of stores to 20.
• Another customer is planning to open a new store in June the following year.

Calculate the final forecasts that the demand planner may use to develop an aggregate production
plan.

Question 34 [16 MARKS]

The demand manager at CT, a manufacturer of widgets, needs to develop an aggregate production
plan for widgets for the first six months of the following year. To this end he obtained the demand
forecasts as follows (number of widgets):
Month January February March April May June
Demand 3 000 6 000 2 010 1 510 4 000 5 500

The following production and related cost information is available:

Regular time production cost R9.60/unit
Overtime production cost R14.40/unit
Subcontracting production cost R18.50/unit
Inventory carrying cost R5/unit per month
Starting inventory 2 500 units
Regular production capacity 4 500 units

Use this information to assist the company to develop a chase production plan (the production
manager wants to use the starting inventory).

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 Question 35 [18 MARKS]
Do you think that a level production plan will reduce the total production cost?

TOTAL MARKS FOR PART A: 30 MARKS

TOTAL MARKS FOR PART B: 70 MARKS
TOTAL MARKS FOR PARTS A AND B: 100 MARKS

Page 26 of 26 DDPLMY3