A taxi-driver in NYC cut you off. Which among these is a case of hasty generalization?

a: Almost all taxi-drivers in NYC are bad drivers

b: Some taxi-drivers in NYC are bad drivers
c: Not all taxi-drivers live in NYC

I think that France has the probability 0.8 to win the next football World Champion. What is the
intended interpretation of the previous sentence?

a: Subjectivist
b: Frequentist
c: Classical

Consider the following argument:

(P1) Milton Friedman won the Nobel Prize and taught economics at the University of Chicago
(P2) Ronald Coase won the Nobel Prize and taught economics at the University of Chicago
(P3) George Stigler won the Nobel Prize and taught economics at the University of Chicago
(P4) Paul Samuelson won the Nobel Prize and taught economics at the University of Chicago
(C) Those who taught economics at the University of Chicago won the Nobel Prize.

What kind of argument is it? 2 FOIS

a: Abductive
b: Deductive
c: Inductive

What is the option expressing two mutually exclusive events? 2 FOIS

a: Walking and talking

b: Walking and singing
c: Driving and walking

Being a mammal is: 2 FOIS

a: A sufficient condition to be a dolphin

b: A necessary and sufficient condition to be a dolphin
c: A necessary condition to be a dolphin

Which of these three arguments is a fallacy of affirming the consequent?

a: If it rains, then Gina takes the umbrella. It’s raining. Then Gina takes the umbrella.
b: If it rains, then Gina takes the umbrella. Gina takes the umbrella. Then, it rains.
c: If it rains, then Gina takes the umbrella. Gina does not take the umbrella. So it doesn’t rain.

Take the following argument: “Eating too much of red meat helps cancer-causing elements
accumulate in the body. Anything that helps cancer-causing elements accumulate in the body is
bad for health. Therefore, eating too much of red meat is bad for health.”. This is:

a: An inductive argument
b: An abductive argument
c: A deductively valid argument
Consider the following argument:
(P1) The cave of steel is a science fiction novel written by Isaac Asimov
(P2) The Current of Space is a science fiction novel written by Isaac Asimov
(P3) Pebble in the Sky is a science fiction novel written by Isaac Asimov
(C) Isaac Asimov wrote only science fiction novels

Which kind of argument is it?

a: Deductive
b: Inductive
c: Analogical

Consider the following: “if company A had made an alliance with company B in 2019, company A
would be flourishing right now”. What can we infer from it? 2 FOIS

a: Company A made an alliance with company B

b: Company B has not made an alliance with company A
c: Company A is flourishing right now

The application of Bayes theorem permits to:

a: Always decrease our probabilistic assessments towards an event

b: Always increase our probabilistic assessments towards an event
c: Update our probabilistic assessment once that new evidence is available

“If event A is certain, what is the probability of it occurring?” 2 FOIS

a: 0.5
b: 1
c: 0

Which of the following statement is true? 2 FOIS

a: A deductive argument is always stronger than an inductive one

b: A deductive argument is always different from an inductive one
c: An inductive argument is always equivalent to a deductive one

To assess whether the decision how to invest 1 million was negligent, one has to consider:

a: The predictability of success

b: The investment’s success
c: The investor’s persuasion

Consider the following argument: “The average price of homes in the area where I live, in the
center of Milan, is 10000€ per square meter. Then, the average price of homes in Milan is high”.
This argument is: 2 FOIS

a: Weak. The sample is too small

b: Weak. The sample is biased
c: Correct. In fact, the average price of homes in Milan is high
To reach correct conclusions in statistical applications, we should:

a: Consider the conclusion of the argument for each relevant reference class
b: Consider the union of all relevant reference classes
c: Consider the intersection of all relevant reference classes

Consider the following argument: “99.99% of computer chips so far produced by factory XYZ are
not defective. Then, the next computer chip produced by factory XYZ will not be defective.” With
respect to a purely statistical generalization, this argument: 2 FOIS

a: Has the same strength

b: Is stronger
c: Is weaker

The notion that a hypothesis is to be accepted as a result of an inference to the best explanation
implies that: 2 FOIS

a: The only thing we should care about is the predictive power of the hypothesis
b: The hypothesis that sounds the weirdest one is always the worst one
c: Ideally, the hypothesis must prove better than the rival hypothesis

Purely statistical generalizations are generally strong inductive arguments because:

a: They are difficult to reject when the sample is sufficiently large

b: Numbers speak louder than words
c: They are based on a mathematical theorem regarding the arrangement of population in their
subsets

Which of the following statements is true? 3 FOIS

a: A deduction is always a sound argument

b: An argument is valid if and only if it is sound
c: An argument is sound only if it is valid

Consider the following argument:

(P1) If China wants peace, it must eliminate customs duties
(P2) China has eliminated customs duties
(C) China wants peace

What kind of argument is it?

a: Invalid
b: Valid
c: Sound

To evaluate a counterfactual like: “If it hadn’t rained, we would have won the game” you need: 2
FOIS

a: To imagine a situation where it rained

b: To imagine a situation where you did not win the game
c: To imagine a situation where it did not rain
Consider the following counterfactual: “if railroads had not been invented, the national income of
the United States in 1890 would have been at most 5% lower”. What is the contrapositive of such
counterfactual?

a: If railroads had been invented, the national income of the United States in 1890 would have not
been 5% lower.
b: If the national income of the United States had noy been 5% lower in 1890, the railroads would
have been invented.
c: If the national income of the United States had been 5% lower in 1890, the railroads had not been
invented

Consider the following sentences and select the false one:

a: All counterfactuals are conditional sentences

b: All counterfactuals with a true consequent can be true or false
c: All counterfactuals with a false antecedent are true

If hypothesis H1 does not successfully predict new evidence and hypothesis H2 does so, then: 2
FOIS

a: H2 is to be preferred over H1
b: The best explanation depends on the cost of testing
c: H1 is to be preferred over H2

“If someone is right-wing, then they sing the national anthem with transport. Francesco is not
right-wing. Therefore, Francesco does not sing the national anthem with transport.”

a: The fallacy of negating the antecedent

b: The fallacy of affirming the consequent
c: No fallacy

In level 2 of Graham’s pyramid of disagreement (“reply to the tone”):

a: The substance of the argument is not attacked

b: The error is found and countered
c: The opposite of the opponent’s thesis is affirmed, without proving it

“If your argument was sound, we should buy and -- at the same time – sell this stock”. What kind
of counterargument is this?

a: A reductio
b: A lethal refutation
c: A fallacy

Consider the following argument: “Almost all birds can fly. Penguins are birds. Then, penguins can
fly”.

a: This is a strong inductive argument

b: This is a weak argument because its conclusion is false
c: This argument has a false premise because penguins are not birds
Simple inductions: 2 FOIS

a: Are cases of generalization about the future

b: Are very strong arguments because of their simplicity
c: Have a lower predictive power because they can be applied just to one case

“Only if I’m on a scooter I wear my new road helmet”. Based on the previous statement, which of
the following is not necessarily true?

a: If I wear my new road helmet, then I’m on a scooter

b: If I am not on a scooter, I do not wear my new road helmet
c: Only if I wear my new road helmet, then I’m on a scooter

Suppose that A and B are true and C false. Then “If A then (B if and only if C)” is

a: False
b: Both true and false
c: True

A public administration has a budget of 2000 and must make a choice between two programs of
social aid: program (X), which costs 500 for sure, and program (Y), which costs 1000 with a .5
probability and 0 with a .5 probability. Which one will be chosen by the homo economicus?

a: Y
b: X
c: They are equivalent

What is the point of critical thinking?

a: To explain human choices

b: To describe practices of thought
c: To provide normative criteria for thinking

The anchoring effect consists in: 2 FOIS

a: Not revising an initial estimate

b: Being influenced by an initial estimate
c: Being influenced by a missing estimate

Fundamental uncertainty refers to those situations called: 2 FOIS

a: Known knowns
b: Unknown unknowns
c: Known unknowns

Consider the following argument:

I have a high fever and a persistent cough, so I contracted the coronavirus.
The argument is:

a: Valid
b: Invalid
c: Sound
Consider the following table:

A B C D Y
CASE 1 YES YES NO YES NO
CASE 2 NO YES YES YES YES
CASE 3 YES NO YES YES YES

In this case, the method of agreement does not suffice to provide a causal conclusion because:

a: The method needs a higher number of cases in order to work

b: The method does not tell us anything relevant on the cases in which the effect (Y) does not occur
c: The method eliminates everything that we would not consider a cause of Y, but also some
candidate that we would consider a cause of Y

Very few football teams win the league twice in a row. Juventus won the league last year. Then,
Juventus will not win the league this year”. This is a quite weak argument because:

a: It presupposes the uniformity between past and future

b: In football, there are too many variables involved
c: It disregards the fact that Juventus is a strong team

Consider the following argument:

(P1) If Frank watches TV, then Rachel listens to music
(P2) Frank watches TV
(C) Rachel listens to music

What kind of argument is it?

a: Abductive
b: Inductive
c: Deductive

Which of these three statements is a false dichotomy? 2 FOIS

a: Let’s go see the movie about J. Joplin or the one about D. W. Wallace
b: Eat your soup or eat your tomatoes
c: Either you argue that the Billionaire has to party all night or you want the death of the Italian
entertainment industry

If the asking price of a house is 500.000, you are rationally supposed to:

a: Disregard that when you ask yourself how much you would pay for the house
b: Take that as a reliable indicator of the house’s value
c: Reject that when you ask yourself how much you would pay for the house

“Pharmaceuticals have had more than 10% sales losses from counterfeit goods in 2020.” In order
to evaluate this claim, we need to imagine a counterfactual situation. Which one?

a: A situation where there are not counterfeit goods

b: A situation where there are no sales losses for pharmaceuticals
c: A situation where nobody buys counterfeit pharmaceuticals
If P then Q. Not-Q. So: Not-P. This is a: 2 FOIS

a: Modus Ponens
b: Fallacy of denial of consequence
c: Modus tollens

Mill’s methods are not adequate when:

a: We are facing a case of indeterministic causality

b: More than one candidate remains after the elimination procedure
c: There are more than five prior relevant factors

Consider a counterfactual of the form: “if A had not been the case, B would not have been the
case”. What can we conclude from that?

a: B is counterfactually dependent on A
b: A is counterfactually dependent on B
c: B causes A

“Giovanni is nice if and only if Marcello is beautiful”. This statement is false when:

a: Both are ugly and unpleasant

b: Giovanni is nice and Marcel is ugly
c: Giovanni is nice, and Marcel is beautiful

What is the main reason to negotiate:

a: To share views on some topic

b: To reach an agreement that satisfies concrete interests
c: To obtain benefits at any cost

Which of the following statements is true?

a: The validity of an argument is independent of the truth of its premises

b: Each valid argument has exactly two premises
c: An invalid argument cannot have true premises

Two soldiers see an impressive cloud of dust moving toward them from east. One of them says: “It
must be a caravan of enemy tanks getting nearer”. This reasoning aims at:

a: Generalizing data that have been put together by the two soldiers about clouds of dust
b: Asserting a conclusion that cannot be false, if the premise (that a cloud of dust is moving toward
them) is true
c: Explaining a phenomenon that has been observed

If you are asked to estimate Leonardo da Vinci’s age at death, and before you were asked if his age
at death was more than 98 years, it is correct to treat this information as:

a: Irrelevant
b: Poorly relevant
c: Highly relevant
How can someone refute an inductive argument?

a: By showing that the conclusion is improbable

b: By showing that the argument is a non sequitur
c: By showing that the conclusion is an undue generalization

What does it mean to say that an argument contains a non sequitur?

a: One of the premises is useless

b: At least one premise is missing
c: One of the premises is false

What does the framing effect depend upon?

a: The way in which the problem is presented

b: The background knowledge
c: The way in which science corrects itself

What is crucial if one wants to exploit the framing effect?

a: The interests of the other parties involved

b: The emotions of the audience
c: The rationality of the audience

Assume that 25% of the population in Finland is exposed at least to a television commercial for
Volkswagen automobiles, and 34% is exposed at least to Volkswagen’s radio advertisements.
Moreover, it is known that 10% of the population is exposed to both means of advertising. If a
person is randomly chosen out of the entire population in Finland, what is the probability that he
or she was exposed to at least one of the two modes of advertising?

a: 49%
b: 5.9%
c: 69%

Consider the following statement: “The real estate sector is rising because there are low interest
rates”. What can one derive from the statement?

a: If interests rates had not been low, the real estate sector would not have risen
b: If the real estate sector had not risen, the interest rates would not have been low
c: Interest rates are not low

What argumentation schema is not satisfied by counterfactuals but is satisfied by material

conditionals?

a: Transitivity
b: Contradiction
c: Modus ponens
According to Kahnemann and Tversky, when we imagine an alternate scenario, we tend to modify
some aspects (of our representation of the real scenario) and not others. Which ones?

a: Ordinary events
b: Exceptional events
c: Less probable events

Consider the following argument:

The Eskimos are immune to Covid-19, so no Eskimos got sick from the virus. This argument is:

a: Valid
b: Neither valid nor invalid
c: Invalid

“If someone is left-wing, then he or she is a pacifist. Benedict is not left-wing. Therefore, Benedict
is not a pacifist.” This reasoning exemplifies:

a: The fallacy of affirming the consequent

b: The fallacy of negating the antecedent
c: Both fallacies

A crucial condition for Mill’s methods being successful is:

a: That we individuate those prior factors that are actually relevant

b: That we have to complete information on all possible cases, not just on those at hand
c: That we have no cases, among those considered, in which the effect-event does not hold