RANDOM VARIABLES AND DISTRIBUTIONS

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Normal approximation to binomial

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QUESTION

Suppose that a new treatment is successful in curing a common ailment 66% of the time. If the treatment is tried on a random sample of 115 patients,
approximate the probability that at most 72 will be cured. Use the normal approximation to the binomial with a correction for continuity.
Round your answer to at least three decimal places. Do not round any intermediate steps.

(If necessary, consult a list of formulas.)

EXPLANATION

It makes sense to suppose that the number X of patients who are cured in the random sample of 115 patients has a binomial distribution
Why this
with parameters n = 115 (the size of the sample) and p = 0.66 (the probability that a given patient is cured). So, if x is any integer from 0
distribution?
to 115 , the probability of obtaining exactly x cured patients in the sample of 115 can be found using the binomial formula.

x 115 − x
P X = x   =  115Cx   0.66 1 − 0.66 Other notations

We're asked to estimate the probability of obtaining at most 72 cured patients, that is, to estimate this value.

P X ≤ 72 = P X = 0 + P X = 1 + ... + P X = 72

In practice, computing P X ≤ 72 by this method may be difficult because the right-hand side of the last equation is the sum of a large
number of complicated terms. However, we're asked only to estimate the value P X ≤ 72 . Fortunately, since the total number of
observations n is large and the probability p is not too close to 0 or 1, a fairly accurate estimation method is available. In this method, the
When can this
normal distribution having mean n p and standard deviation n p 1 − p (the same mean and standard deviation of X) is used to approximation
approximate the distribution of X. The method is called the normal approximation to the binomial. be used?

For this problem, we have the following.

n p = 115 0.66 = 75.9

n p 1 − p = 115 0.66 1 − 0.66 = 25.806

So the distribution of X will be approximated by a normal distribution having mean 75.9 and standard deviation 25.806 .

X − 75.9
In other words, will be approximated by Z, which follows the standard normal distribution.
25.806
Using this approximation, though, we will systematically overestimate or underestimate the exact value of the binomial probability. To obtain a better
approximation, we can use the so-called correction for continuity, which amounts to adjusting the cutoff value x by adding or subtracting 0.5 . (The cutoff value x
in this problem is 72.) Whether we add or subtract 0.5 is determined by the probability type that we are asked to find, as shown in the table below.

Probability type Adjusted probability

P X≥x P X ≥ x − 0.5

P X>x P X ≥ x + 0.5

P X≤x P X ≤ x + 0.5

P X<x P X ≤ x − 0.5

So, using the correction for continuity, P X ≤ 72 P X ≤ 72.5 , with X assumed to follow a normal distribution with mean 75.9
can be estimated by and
standard deviation 25.806 , as described above. Computing P X ≤ 72.5 under these assumptions, we have the following.

X − 75.9 72.5 − 75.9 How is this

P X ≤ 72.5 = P ≤ equality
25.806 25.806 obtained?

72.5 − 75.9 X − 75.9

≈ P Z≤ (because is being approximated by Z)
25.806 25.806
≈ 0.252 (using the calculator)

Thus, using the normal approximation to the binomial with a correction for continuity, we estimate that there is a probability of about 0.252 that at most 72
patients in the sample will be cured.
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0.252

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