Hmax 2022 UCLouvain

HYDROMAX
Application for river flow forecasting
Institute of Information and Communication

Technologies, Electronics and Applied Mathematics
luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 1

Mathematical Engineering Department Mathematical Engineering Department
Background
Direction Générale opérationnelle mobilité et voies hydrauliques

Direction de la gestion hydrologique
1993 : The big floods of January and December.

1994 : Design and development of Hydromax : first river basin
modelling (Rainfall / Runoff Model).
1995 : The big flood of January in the Meuse river basin.
2001 : Flood of January.
2002 : Flood of February and March.
2003 : Flood of January.

Mathematical Engineering Department
NL
BELGIUM D
Telemetering Network of SPW
F Raingauges and Water Level Recorders
L

Raingauges - Input(s) of the Model
Horizontal axis

Raingauges - Input(s) of the Model

Water Level Recorder
« Output » of the Model
Q = fn(Z)
with :
Z = Water Level [m];
Q = Discharge [m³/s].

Rating Curve

Discharges Measurements
© MET
© MET
Sethy
Propeller Sethy
80 sites, 400 measurements / year

ADCP Gauging
© SPW - DO 223
© SPW - DO 223
© SPW - DO 223
© SPW - DO 223
Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler

Raingauges and Water Level Recorders

Lesse River Basin (1286 [km²])
0 5 10 km

Data Acquisition to Forecasting
Press  Government
Water level
Public Security
recorder
Providers (Energy–Water)
RIVER
BASIN Foreign Control Centers
Raingauges
TELEMETERING INFORMATION
NETWORK NETWORK
CONTROL HYDROMAX
Rating curve CENTER
m → m3/s
Hydrological CENTRAL FORECASTING

Database COMPUTER COMPUTER

Website - « Etat des eaux »
http://voies-hydrauliques.wallonie.be

Website - « Etat des eaux »
Etats de eaux du 19/01/2007 à 9h00
http://voies-hydrauliques.wallonie.be

HYDROMAX
A Typical Example of On-Line Forecasting

HYDROMAX

HYDROMAX

HYDROMAX
HYDROMAX : PREVISIONS

Why a Riverflow Forecasting Model ?
Q = 274 [m³/s]
Riverflow and cumulative rainfall over Amblève basin H = 2,88 [m]
300 11 h Later
Riverflow
Cumulative rainfall
250
Riverflow [m³/s] Rainfall [mm]
200
150
100
50
Q = 57 [m³/s]
H = 1,45 [m]
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Time from 18/08/98 until 20/09/98 [12h]
Natural River Basin
- Rainfall;
- Interception(s);
- Evapotranspiration;
- Soil percolate; Ran
i
gauge
- Run Off;
- Riverflow.
Wat er l evel
recorder
St age gauge

Natural River Basin
- Rainfall;
- Interception(s);
- Evapotranspiration;
- Soil percolate; Ran
i
gauge
- Run Off;
- Riverflow.
Wat er l evel
recorder
St age gauge
Conceptual Model
Meshing Model

Rainfall/River Flow System
Measurements
Total
Rainfall
Riverflow
Ran
i
gauge
Wat er l evel
recorder
St age gauge

Total Rainfall to
Effective Rainfall
Measurements
Total
Rainfall
Effective
Storage
Rainfall
Ran
i
gauge
Wat er l evel
recorder
St age gauge

Total Rainfall to
Effective Rainfall
Measurements
Evapo- Total
transpiration Rainfall
Effective
Storage
Rainfall
Ran
i
gauge
Infiltration
Wat er l evel
recorder
St age gauge

Effective Rainfall
to River Flow
Measurements
Evapo- Total
Effective
Storage Black- Riverflow
Rainfall Box
Ran
i
gauge
Infiltration
Wat er l evel
recorder
St age gauge

Measurements
Evapo- Total
Effective
Rainfall Box
Ran
i
gauge
LINEAR STATISTICAL
Infiltration MODEL (ARX Model)
Wat er l evel
recorder
St age gauge
NON-LINEAR CONCEPTUAL
MODEL

Wat er l evel
Ran
i
gauge
Non-Linear Conceptual Model
recorder
St age gauge
Production function (Total Rainfall / Effective Rainfall)
−  ( PB(t ) − ETP(t ) )
Stock S max W(t ) = ( S max − Stock (t −1) )(1 − exp )
( S max − Stock (t −1) )
Yes
PN (t ) = PB(t ) − ETP(t ) − W(t )
I (t ) =  ( Stock (t −1) + W(t ) )
PB(t) > ETP(t) Stock (t ) = Stock (t −1) + W(t ) − I (t )
PN (t ) = 0
No I (t ) =  ( Stock (t −1) − ETP(t ) + PB(t ) )
Stock (t ) = Stock (t −1) − ETP(t ) + PB(t ) − I (t )
Three parameters to be calibrated

Ran
i
Production function
gauge
Wat er l evel
recorder
St age gauge
90
80
S(t-1)/Smax=0,90
70 S(t-1)/Smax=0,75
S(t-1)/Smax=0,25Wat er l evel
recorder
St age gauge
Ran
i
gauge
Smax 60 S(t-1)/Smax=0
S
PN(t) [mm/j]
50
I
40
30
20
10
0
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
PB(t)-ETP(t) [mm/j]
Storage Initialization !
Wat er l evel
Ran
i
gauge
recorder
St age gauge
ETP Sub Model ( => ETPh) vs ETRh/2

Wat er l evel
Ran
i
gauge
recorder
St age gauge
ETP Sub Model ( => ETPh) vs ETRh/2
ETP(j)= ETPm – ETPa cos(2 pi j/365)

Measurements
Evapo- Total
Effective
Rainfall Box
Ran
i
gauge
LINEAR STATISTICAL
Infiltration MODEL (ARX Model)
Wat er l evel
recorder
St age gauge
NON-LINEAR CONCEPTUAL
MODEL

Wat er l evel
Ran
i
gauge Linear Statistical Model (ARX)
recorder
St age gauge
Transfer function (Effective Rainfall / River Flow)
𝑛 𝑚
𝑄෠(𝑡+𝐻) = ෍ 𝑎𝑖 𝑄(𝑡− 𝑖−1 𝐻) + ෍ 𝑏𝑗 𝑃𝑁(𝑡− 𝑗−1 𝐻)

𝑖=1 𝑗=1
Identification of :
• H = the short term horizon = fn(River basin size)
• n and m
• ai and bj
HYDROMAX

HYDROMAX - Flood Model
Observed and Forecast Discharges (Feb. 02)

Long Term Forecasts
𝑄෠ (t+2H) ; 𝑄෠ (t+3H) ; … ; 𝑄෠ (t+6H)
Short term
riverflow forecasting
Qˆ (t + 2 H ) = a1 Qˆ (t + H ) + a2 Q (t ) + + an Q (t − (n − 2) H )
+ b1 PS (t + H ) + b2 PN (t ) + + bm PN (t − (m − 2) H )
Rainfall
Meteorological forecasts Measurements

HYDROMAX

HYDROMAX – A Fully
Integrated Tool Meteorological
Forecasts
Field
RMI Server
INTERNET
Hydrological DB
HYDROMAX MA
INTRANET
HYDROMAX
Forecasts DB WEB
SPW Server VPN
SPW Server
Simulated
Flooding Area Local River
Map Flow
Forecasts The Rest of the
World
The main features of HYDROMAX
Direct connection with the telemetering and the

hydrological data base.
Short term riverflow forecasting only based on

on-line hydrological measurements.
Long term Riverflow forecasting based on

hydrological measurements and meteorological
forecasts.
Control and analysis of the inputs and the results

of the used models.

The Advantages of HYDROMAX
Economy of data : the data which are only needed

are the rainfall and the flow in the river (input and
output of the models). The physical description of
the basin is not required;
The identified parameters remain valid from a flood

to another : the models are systematically validated
on floods which are not used for the model
identification;
Friendly user : in order to meet the requirements of

the efficient real time forecasting (computing time
and fiability).
Gendron, 28/01/95 : H=3 [m] Q=195 [m3/s]
Chooz, 30/01/95 : Q=1559 [m3/s]

Gendron, 23/01/95 : Q=328 [m3/s]
© MET D434

Identification Steps of
Rainfall/River Flow Model
1) DATA ANALYSIS
2) Computation of the mean areal rainfall (Kriging Method)
3) Computation of the unit hydrograph (Impusle response)
4) Determination of the forecasting horizon (H)
5) Sampling of rainfall and riverflow data by H
6) Identification of the transfer function structure [na nb k]
7) Optimization of the parameters of the production function
8) Cross validation (Identification period ≠ Validation period)

Unit Hydrograph & Forecasting Horizon
tm=rise time
Unit Hydrograph computed by spectral analysis.

tm / 5 < Forecasting Horizon <t m / 3

Identification of The Transfer Function
Residual or Prediction error (e(t))
e(t ) = Q(t ) − Qˆ (t )
Quadratic loss function (EQMP)
N
1
EQMP =
N −

t = +1
e(t ) 2

- Structure -

- Residuals Analysis -

- Parameters Analysis -
>> present(m_arx_decim )
m_arx_decim =
Discrete-time ARX model: A(z)y(t) = B(z)u(t) + e(t)
A(z) = 1 - 1.127 (+/- 0.08708) z^-1 - 0.09663 (+/- 0.1435) z^-2 + 0.3548 (+/- 0.135) z^-3
- 0.04807 (+/- 0.1069) z^-4 - 0.04622 (+/- 0.0467) z^-5
B(z) = 23.9 (+/- 2.392) z^-1 + 34.13 (+/- 3.236) z^-2 + 6.125 (+/- 4.182) z^-3 + 0.5741 (
+/- 4.102) z^-4 + 4.078 (+/- 3.633) z^-5
Sample time: 8 hours
Parameterization:
Polynomial orders: na=5 nb=5 nk=1
Number of free coefficients: 10
Use "polydata", "getpvec", "getcov" for parameters and their uncertainties.
Status:
Estimated using ARX on time domain data "data_ident_decim".
Fit to estimation data: 92.94% (prediction focus)
FPE: 241.1, MSE: 224.2

Hydromax vs Waterways
© 2013 LMO

Raingauges and Water Level Recorders

Ampsin to Ivoz

Possible Disturbances upstream Amay
Disturbances
On the Meuse
upstream :
9 weirs and 1hydro
power plant
On the Sambre : Evapo- Total

7 weirs and 2 hydro transpiration Rainfall
power plants
On the Meuse Effective

between Namur and Storage Black- Riverflow
Rainfall Box
Amay :
3 weirs and 3 hydro
power plants
Infiltration

Natural River Model for Waterways
Flood Model 8h percentile
Underestimated errors
Relative Prediction errors
Overestimated errors
Predicted discharge

Amay - Long Term Forecasting

Natural River Model for Waterways
Flood Models percentile
Prediction intervals for 08 [h]
Underestimated errors
Relative Prediction errors
Overestimated errors
Predicted discharge

Amay : Low Flow Forecasts

Amay : Flood Forecasting

Amay : Flood Forecasting

Hydromax vs Low River Flow

HYDROMAX - Low Water Model
Observed and Forecast Discharges (June 93)

HYDROMAX – Prévision d’étiage
Qˆ (t + 2h) = a1 Qˆ (t + h) + a2 Q(t ) +  + an Q (t − (n − 2)h)

+ b1 PS (t + h) + b2 PN (t ) +  + bm PN (t − (m − 2)h)
Observed and Forecasted Discharges (June 93)

HYDROMAX – Prévision d’étiage

Observed and Forecasted Discharges (June 93)
ln(Qˆ (t + H )) = a1 ln(Q (t )) + a2 ln(Q (t − H )) + + an ln(Q (t − (n − 1) H ))

+ b1 PN (t ) + b2 PN (t − H ) + + bm PN (t − (m − 1) H )

Coupling of the Flood Model and
the Low Water Model
Qˆ af (t + H ) = K Qˆ (t + H ) + (1 − K ) Qˆ lg(t + H )
K
1
0
Q(t)
Q inf Q sup

Coupling of Two Models
Comparison of the Relative Errors
600
Flood du
Erreur Model
modèle crue
Erreur du
Coupling couplage
500
400
300
200
100
0
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

Hydromax vs Convective Rainfall

Using a Weather Radar Instead of
Raingauges
© IRM - KMI
© IRM - KMI

Raingauges and Ping Pong Table

Using a Weather Radar Instead of
Raingauges
© IRM - KMI
© IRM - KMI

Lesse River Basin Areas [km²]


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HYDROMAX

Application for river flow forecasting

Institute of Information and Communication

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 1

Direction Générale opérationnelle mobilité et voies hydrauliques

1993 : The big floods of January and December.

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 2

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 3

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 4

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 5

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 6

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 7

80 sites, 400 measurements / year

Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 10

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 11

Hydrological CENTRAL FORECASTING

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 12

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 13

Etats de eaux du 19/01/2007 à 9h00

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 14

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 15

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 16

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 17

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 18

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 20

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 21

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 22

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 23

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 24

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 25

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 26

Production function (Total Rainfall / Effective Rainfall)

Three parameters to be calibrated

ETP Sub Model ( => ETPh) vs ETRh/2

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 29

ETP Sub Model ( => ETPh) vs ETRh/2

ETP(j)= ETPm – ETPa cos(2 pi j/365)

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 30

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 31

Transfer function (Effective Rainfall / River Flow)

𝑄෠(𝑡+𝐻) = ෍ 𝑎𝑖 𝑄(𝑡− 𝑖−1 𝐻) + ෍ 𝑏𝑗 𝑃𝑁(𝑡− 𝑗−1 𝐻)

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 33

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 34

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 35

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 36

Direct connection with the telemetering and the

Short term riverflow forecasting only based on

Long term Riverflow forecasting based on

Control and analysis of the inputs and the results

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 38

Economy of data : the data which are only needed

The identified parameters remain valid from a flood

Friendly user : in order to meet the requirements of

Chooz, 30/01/95 : Q=1559 [m3/s]

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 40

luc.moens@uclouvain.be Louvain-la-Neuve 17/05/2022 41

Unit Hydrograph computed by spectral analysis.