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What does US-India tech coupling mean for Pakistan?

Pakistan’s digital transformation is in its nascent stage, and vulnerable to a problematic political-economic matrix

Javairyah Kulthum Aatif February 25, 2023 

The writer is a digital media and policy advocacy specialist at IPRI. She can be followed on Twitter: @JavairyahAatif

Perhaps the most significant facet to the US-India partnership is the

growing technological coupling, parallel to US-China tech
decoupling. This intensification and shift of tech policies from China
to India is evident and exemplary of the geopolitical rivalries. While
initiatives like the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology
(iCET) and the Trade and Technology Council (TTC) are no doubt
great achievements by India, it comes with certain implications for
Pakistan, even if Pakistan is not the primary target in this tech
coupling between the US and India.

Pakistan’s digital transformation is in its nascent stage, and vulnerable

to a problematic political-economic matrix. Added to these troubles is
the resurgence of violent extremism, dragging the country back into a
state of security paralysis. Unfortunately, the frozen Indo-Pak ties do not
help Pakistan either. India’s evolution and revolution as a
technologically advanced state becomes a natural factor of unbalancing
strategic stability in South Asia. The iCET between the US and India is the
lynchpin upon which India could become the next technological might,
perhaps even an extension of the Silicon Valley. Access and
advancement of critical infrastructure technologies will allow India to
have further leverage and influence in regional and global politics.
This growing technology cooperation between the Western countries
and India creates multi-level implications for Pakistan even if its sole
target is China. Some are briefly identified here:

Increased competition and access to technology: Already a staggering

economy, Pakistan will face an increased competition in the global arena
of tech sector, particularly in areas of software development and IT
services. India’s growing tech partnerships with the US may provide it
with greater access to cutting-edge technology, which could give it a
competitive advantage over Pakistan in certain areas. For example, the
intensified information sharing will allow the US and India to
collaborate on critical infrastructure technology which, for Pakistan, can
be concerning. It may also lead to the development of new
vulnerabilities that could be exploited by cybercriminals or sponsored
hacking groups. This could result in cyberattacks against Pakistan’s
government, businesses and citizens: the Pegasus episode is still a fresh
memory.

Moreover, the US-India cooperation will result in a more strategic

competition in South Asia due to the advancement of military
technology, including cyber-weaponry. This could result in the
development of more sophisticated and advanced cyber-weapons,
enhancing the asymmetry between Pakistan and India. As Noor Ul Ain
writes for South Asian Voices, “The India-Pakistan rivalry is not
restricted or solely aggravated by the U.S.-China strategic rivalry.
However, competition between the United States and China has resulted
in an accelerated piling of weapons, enabling India and Pakistan’s
capabilities against each other.”

Not only has that but India intended to shift the technology supply chain
value and mechanisms towards itself. The semiconductor industry is
part of the larger technology rivalry taking place between the US and
China. This partnership aims to build and innovate within this industry
to perhaps even stop reliance on Taiwan entirely. The US and Indian
semiconductor counterparts will be setting up a taskforce not only
dedicated for this but also for emerging telecommunications and space
technology. Naturally these advancements will unfortunately make
Pakistan’s existing capabilities from a security and economic outlook
quite redundant.

Therefore, Pakistan must stay vigilant on this front and take proactive
measures to — if not entirely insulate itself from these implications — at
least be prepared to deal with them. In such a scenario, Pakistan must
not only rely on competing powers like the US and China to sustain itself
in the tech-driven world, but capture the opportunity through
technology to revitalise its economy, governance and people.
 Published in The Express Tribune, February 25th, 2023.

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