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Resources Policy 63 (2019) 101406

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Resources Policy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/resourpol

Natural resources curse: A reality in Africa T


Pr Atangana Ondoa Henri
University of Yaoundé II, Cameroon

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Keywords: The objective of this study is to identify the institutional and economic indicators that are more negatively
Africa affected by natural resource rents in Africa. For this purpose, it used the two-stage least squares (2SLS) and data
Natural of the World bank (WDI and WGI) for the period 1992–2016.The results show that the most institutional pro-
Curse and resource blems caused by natural resources rents are by order: corruption; problem of rule of law or justice; inefficient
public administrations; bad regulation; lack of voice and accountability; political instability. Natural resources
rents also cause volatility of GDP per capita, leading to low level of physical and human capital accumulation.
For these reasons, African countries should promote good governance and diversify their economies.

1. Introduction raw primary commodities increase growth by relaxing the trade bal-
ance constraint in the short run. However, in the medium run and in the
The socio-economic effects of natural resources have been widely long run if the well-known Marshall–Learner condition holds true and
studied and debated amongst researchers. Until 1980s, certain authors following the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis, the attempt to increase
especially, most neoliberal economists like Rostow and Balassa believed growth will induce LDCs terms of trade to deteriorate and the price of
that natural resources were a major advantage for economies to ex- raw materials to decrease with respect to that of industrial goods
perience rapid growth and development. Rostow (1961) for example, (Bianchi, 2004).
considered raw materials abundance as an element of precondition for The natural resources curses refers to the paradox that countries
the “take-off” from LDCs to that of industrial development. Balassa endowed with raw materials tend to have lower GDP per capita and
(1980) showed that natural resources contribute to industrial devel- worse development outcomes than countries with fewer natural re-
opment because they provide funds for physical capital formation and sources. Angola, Congo and Nigeria, are good examples of economies
increase demand of industrial products. Deaton (1999) also argues that well-endowed in natural resources that suffer widespread poverty
natural resources rents are a potential source of funds for physical ca- (Badeeb et al., 2017). For this paradox of plenty, most authors have
pital accumulation. Even temporary price booms provide windfalls that, been skeptical about the idea that natural resources induce economic
if invested, can enhance future growth. A recent study of Shahbaz et al. development. For instance, Bruno and Sachs (1982); Corden and Neary
(2017) shows that natural resources contribute to financial develop- (1982) developed the Dutch disease theory that attracted most atten-
ment and that economic growth. Due to certain external shocks like an tion. They based their analyses on the example of the Netherlands in
increase of primary commodities prices or abundant natural resource natural gas extraction in 1970s and showed that raw materials ex-
endowments, natural resources rents can help the development of other ploitation draws labour out of the manufacturing industry towards the
tradable sectors like manufacturing or services. Indeed, the accumula- extractive industry due to more attractive wage in the mining sector
tion of innovation spills, physical and human capital in mines sector (Joya, 2015). Sachs and Warner (1995) argue that the impact of natural
over to the rest of the economy can boost economic growth resources on economic development is negative, and the finding has
(Matsuyama, 1992; Ross, 2005). been labeled the “natural resource curse1" (Havranek et al., 2016).
A very widely accepted evidence of the new trade theory is that Natural resources discovery in developing countries, especially in
trade in specialized products like natural resources has positive supply Africa, rather than yielding sustainable socio-economic advantage to
side implications for economic growth, because it facilitates the those countries, is considered to be a ‘curse’. Indeed, corruption per-
achievement of static and dynamic economies of scale. It also facilitates meating within oil-rich developing countries impedes transparency and
learning by enhancing raw materials production (Krugman, 1987; accountability resulting in the resource-curse (Adams et al., 2019).
Murshed and Serino, 2011). According to Dutt (2003), high prices of Following Mehlum et al. (2006), natural resource curse only occurs in

E-mail address: atanganaondoa@yahoo.fr.


1
A situation where the income generated from resource usage is lower than the total input cost (Corrigan, 2014).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101406
Received 18 January 2019; Received in revised form 11 May 2019; Accepted 14 May 2019
0301-4207/ © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
P.A.O. Henri Resources Policy 63 (2019) 101406

economies with low institutional quality and those with good institu- distinct but overlapping categories: economic and political mechan-
tions, raw materials can foster long-term development. They claim that isms. Economically, the main reasons why resource-based paths of de-
these economies typically have weak institutions, poor governance velopment inhibit long run economic growth are traced to the Dutch
systems, inadequate skills, expertise and methods needed to manage the disease phenomenon, the volatility of commodity prices, failures of
resources. The issue on the ‘natural resource-curse’ assumes that de- economic policy, and the neglect of education. Politically, the main
veloping oil-rich countries are susceptible to rent-seeking behaviour, mechanisms are traced to rent seeking, weak institutions and corrup-
petroleum revenue mismanagement, poor governance, socio-economic tion.
and political crisis and regional conflicts that can weaken democratic The most prominent economic channel of the paradox of plenty is
processes, stability, growth and development (Adams et al., 2018). the Dutch disease phenomenon first developed by Gorden and Nearly
According to Frankel (2010), natural resource revenue mismanagement (1982); Gordon (1984). Dutch disease indicates the decline of the Dutch
seems to be one of the major factors contributing to a weakening in manufacturing sector after the discovery of natural gas sources. Dutch
Africa's democratic processes and economic development. Furthermore disease occurs when raw material booms increase domestic revenue and
natural resources rents induces appreciation of the real exchange rate, the internal demand for goods and services. This income generates
deindustrialization, and that these adverse effects are more severe in appreciation of the real exchange rate and inflation. As a result, the
volatile countries with bad institutions and lack of rule of law, cor- relative prices of non-resource commodities increase, and their export
ruption, presidential democracies, and underdeveloped financial sys- becomes expensive relative to world market prices. This leads to a
tems” (Van der Ploeg, 2010a). decrease in the competitiveness of these non-resource commodities, and
A new approach on natural resources curses developed by Adams in the investment they attract. This negative effect is called the
et al. (2019); Adamset al., (2017); Kolk and Lenfant (2010); Kopiński spending effect. In addition, internal domestic inputs such as labour and
et al. (2013) explains the curse by globalization. In oil-rich developing materials are shifted to the natural resource sector. The prices of these
countries, multinational corporations (MNCs) often implement various inputs increase in the domestic market. As a result, the production costs
strategies such as legitimization, transfer pricing and tax avoidance to of other traditional export sectors such as manufacturing and agri-
deprive countries well-endowed in natural resources from benefiting culture rise, contracting these sectors (Badeeb et al., 2017). This ad-
fully from their legitimate, mandated and legal share of their natural verse effect on non-resource sectors is called the resource pull effect
resource endowments. Additionally, multinational firms lack corporate (Humphreys et al., 2007). In addition, natural resources can bypass
social responsibility commitments including sustainably responsible innovation when activities in the mining sector are higher than en-
exploitation of resources to support environmental preservation and trepreneurial activities. Natural resource rents may also inhibit GDP
sustainable growth and development (Adams et al., 2019). growth through crowding out R&D, entrepreneurship or innovation.
Natural curse has attracted significant academic attention, studies Sachs and Warner (2001) suggest that wage privilege in the mining
have focused on economic growth, industrialisation, inflation, physical sector may discourage innovators to engage in technology innovation,
and human capital accumulation, governance and institution quality. R&D sector. Furthermore, several authors indicate that natural resource
However, despite considerable evidence on the notion of a resource wealth result crowding-out effect inhibiting technology innovation as
curse, the literature has not identified the macroeconomic indicators high wages offered by mining sector can serve to draw away scarce
that are more worsen because of natural resources curse. This paper skilled labour from other sectors of the economy, making it difficult for
extends these previous studies of the paradox of plenty in Africa. The them to compete. The same high wages can also create disincentives for
purpose of this article is not to continue the debate about whether entrepreneurship, education, R&D, and technology innovation in other
natural resources are a ‘curse’ or a blessing, but rather, to identify the sectors effectively degrading the pool of skilled labour that may be
institutional and macroeconomic indicators that are more worsen in necessary to develop agriculture and manufacture sectors (Wu et al.,
Africa because of natural resources. For this reason, the article is or- 2018; Parlee, 2015; Namazi and Mohammadi, 2018).
ganized as follows: Section 2 covers the literature review, section 3 The second economic channel through which the resource curse
develops econometric model and section 4 presents the results. may operate is the volatile nature of natural resource prices in global
markets. According to Ramey and Ramey (1995), volatility complicates
2. Literature review saving/investment decisions of economic agents and affects long-term
economic growth. Increased volatility in government revenues may also
Developing countries well-endowed in natural resources suffer slow call for higher levels of precautionary saving. Arezki and Gylfason
economic growth and development. However, why most economies (2011) point out that revenues derived from raw materials transit di-
well-endowed in natural resources perform economically well while rectly to the government coffers through export tariffs, state ownership
others owning perform poorly. The debate is complex when we consider and taxation. These revenues may be prone to rent-seeking behaviour
the quantification of the raw material sector (Adams et al., 2018). and not be saved or invested appropriately. They thus showed that
Through his descriptive analysis, Gelb (1988) established a resource governments that can prevent misappropriation of raw materials and
curse thesis. He found that oil economies experienced a more serious promote governance play a crucial role in moderating the impact of
deterioration in the efficiency of their domestic capital formation volatility on economic performance in countries well-endowed in nat-
during the boom period of 1971–1983 than did non-oil economies. Gelb ural resources. Bleaney and Halland (2014) suggest that both aid flows
argued that the cost of using oil windfalls can offset the gains from the and natural resources are associated with poor macroeconomic policy,
windfalls themselves (Badeeb et al., 2017). Inspired by the above as measured by the volatility of public expenditure. In addition, access
findings, Sachs and Warner launched a series of studies (Sachs and to raw material rents distorts fiscal policy, leading to over expanded
Warner, 1995; 1997, 1999, 2001). The purpose of these studies was to government final consumption and general wastage when the extrac-
test empirically the existence of a negative relationship between natural tion of resources is geographically concentrated. Following Dutt (2003)
resource dependence and economic growth. Sachs and Warner (1995) and (Bianchi, 2004), high prices of exported natural resources may
arguably produced the first scholarly work confirming the adverse ef- favor economic growth by relaxing the trade balance constraint in the
fects of resource dependence based on empirical evidence. Gylfason short run. However, in the medium run, if the Marshall-Learner con-
(1999, 2001) showed that savings, investment and human capital for- dition holds true, the attempt to raise growth will induce small devel-
mation are the broader channels through which natural resource de- oping economies’ terms of trade to deteriorate and the price of raw
pendence could affect sustained economic growth. Badeeb et al. (2017) materials to decrease with respect to that of industrial goods. In the
investigate the mechanisms that link resource dependence to poor long run, should terms of trade do not reach a long-run stable value.
economic performance. These mechanisms can be divided into two The thesis of economic mismanagement is postulated by Gylfason

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P.A.O. Henri Resources Policy 63 (2019) 101406

(2001); Iimi (2007); Ross (2007). These authors showed that raw ma- on resource rents than tax revenues, which correspondingly weaken
terial revenues may imbue policymakers with overconfidence in their public demand for democratic accountability(Badeeb et al., 2017).
countries. Ready access to natural resource revenues may relieve A new approach of natural resources curses explains the paradox by
pressures on governments regarding tax collection and the need for how multinational companies act. For instance, Amaeshi et al. (2014)
fiscal discipline. Governments may exploit this reduced constraint on explore why and how multinational companies still pursue and enact
expenditures or reduced need to impose non-resource taxes to offset responsible business practices in Nigeria. They suggest that responsible
pressures they would otherwise face for political reforms. A curse business practices in such contexts are often anchored on some corpo-
skeptic might argue that a government differently minded might pre- rate social responsibility mechanisms. Furthermore, Castelacci (2015)
cisely use resource rents to invest in needed infrastructures, or use re- analyzes the contrasting predictions of two competing views: the in-
source rent windfalls to ease the implementation of needed political stitutional voids and the organizational resilience theses on a large
reforms in Pareto improving. Resource rents may thus providegovern- sample of firms in Latin America. The results point out that the superior
ments with greater scope for good or ill and not inherently be re- innovation performance of group-affiliated firms is stronger for national
sponsible for the ill. On the demand side, natural resource abundance economies with more efficient financial, legal, and labour market in-
may also reduce people's incentives to accumulate human capital due to stitutions. Oil companies have, until recently, refused to address macro-
high levels of non-wage income or resource-based wages (Badeeb et al., level governance issues. While the notion of non-involvement in gov-
2017). Natural resource dependence may weaken public and private ernment affairs has not radically changed. However since the year
incentives to accumulate human capital due to a high level of non-wage 2000, multinational oil companies (Shell, BP and Statoil) now recognize
income. For instance, in LDCs, the share of the labour force engaged in that they can play a significant role in improving governance (Frynas,
primary production at all levels is inversely related to primary com- 2010).
modity abundance (Gylfason and Gylfason, 1999). In addition, across In addition, The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI)
economies, public expenditures on education in percentage of national membership has not resulted in reduced corruption scores (Kasekende
income, secondary-school enrolment rates and years of schooling are all et al., 2016). Keblusek (2010) discusses the case of Nigeria where in-
inversely related to primary commodities dependence (Gylfason, 2001). depth financial, physical and process audits for the period 1999–2004
People seek political rents when they try to obtain benefits for revealed serious irregularities but no one was held to account for these
themselves through their political influence. Many economists, such as by focusing solely on transparency on the revenue side. EITI ignores the
Gylfason (2001), Iimi (2007), argue that in some countries, the windfall fact that patronage, one of the main avenues for corruption in resource
of resource revenues increases the power of elites, who have the ca- rich countries, relies on the lack of transparency associated with ex-
pacity to widen income inequalities. The elites or powerful groups penditures rather than revenues.
generally take a large share of these revenues and distribute it for the The economic responsibilities of multinational companies in Africa
benefit of their immediate circles rather than investing it to upgrade should be at the core of their corporate social responsibility priorities,
infrastructure and sustainable economic development. Windfall re- followed by philanthropic, legal and ethical responsibilities. It must be
source revenues are also considered a main cause for conflict between noted that corporate social responsibility activities undertaken by
domestic stakeholders such as politicians, local tribes, and citizens more multinational companies in Africa have been criticized, for not ad-
broadly (Badeeb et al., 2017). dressing the root causes of development (Hamann and Kapelus, 2004;
The role of institutions in determining how natural resources affect Idemudia, 2008; Kolk and Lenfant, 2010). Another point of critique has
economic growth has been a point of divergence in the resource curse been the asymmetry between African governments and huge oil mul-
literature. The success of resource-rich country like Botswana has tinational companies, exemplified by comparing company's tax con-
triggered researcher's attention to study the quality of institutions, tributions to government budget (UNCTAD, 2007). Furthermore, the
which plays a key role in the management of natural resources rents social and environmental responsibility quality which is always low
(Corrigan, 2014). In Africa, weak institutions accounted for the slow despite the large scale public concern expressed about the levels of the
economic growth (Collier and Gunning, 1999) because natural resource environmental degradation caused by oil multinational company ac-
abundance negatively affects institutional quality (Sala-i-Martin and tivities (Odera et al., 2016).
Subramanian, 2008). For instance, when governments have less control While many African countries do not have a strong track record of
over natural resource quantities, institutional quality becomes the managing mineral wealth well, Ghana is often considered a model of
crucial sole factor of results (El Anshasy and Katsaiti, 2013). However best practice, based on the government's distribution of a proportion of
strong institutions can reverse a resource-curse into a socio-political mining rents to mining affected communities. However, corruption and
and economic blessings (Robinson et al. (2005). In this case, natural mismanagement by local authorities and traditional leaders undermine
resources rents may increase economic growth and sustain physical and this policy (Standing, 2014). Adams et al. (2018) used 222 cases of 18
human capital formation. In weak institutional economies, natural re- Ghana's key petroleum stakeholders to investigate natural resource
sources impact negatively on both governance and economic develop- curse factors. They find the extractive industries transparency initiative
ment. Indeed, many developing countries especially African countries membership and petroleum revenue management policies insufficient
could not exploit their raw materials to developed their economies. to avert the resource-curse unless they are complemented with public
According to Arezki and Brückner (2011), natural resources increase administration effectiveness, rule of law, regulatory quality, account-
corruption and cause political instability, but at the same time, im- ability, corruption controls, and effective accounting practices. In the
proves civil rights and liberties. Natural resources also shape the choice same country, Wanderley et al. (2008) used data from 227 samples of
of developmental policies and political outcomes (Arezki and Nabli, local firms to show a strong improvement in local firms' uptake of
2012),. Indeed, oil hinders democratization and could even yield a corporate social responsibility with corresponding improvement in FDI
political curse because it allows the political elite to cultivate a culture inflow. Du and Vieira (2012) argue that oil multinational companies
of patronage (Ross et al., 2012). More specifically, Awadallah and Adeel use a variety of strategies to undertake corporate social responsibility
(2011) have argued that the current volatility is caused by inefficient activities to gain legitimacy. Furthermore, Sikka (2010) showed that
state interventions. Natural resource rents may also hinder a country's multinational companies organized tax avoidance and this phenom-
transition to democracy, because they increase the incentive and ability enon has negative effects on development and GDP growth. Nigeria's
of autocratic leaders to retain power. Such leaders are more prepared to Oil Producing Area Development Commissions have failed to improve
use repression or other means to avoid having to democratize or to the well-being of the people in oil producing communities. This phe-
avoid losing power if they are compelled to hold elections. According to nomenon is mostly caused by the Nigeria's shareholder activism and
Ross (2001), authoritarian regimes in resource-rich states can rely more politics (Frynas and Paulo, 2007; Idemudia, 2012). However,

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P.A.O. Henri Resources Policy 63 (2019) 101406

Fig. 1. Natural resources rents and volatility of GDP per capita.


Note: lgdpcapitasd is the standard deviation of GDP per capita in logarithm; lnatusd is the standard deviation of natural resources rent. Source: Author with the data
of WDI (2018).

multinational companies' decisions regarding who to be trained tend to extraction activities.


be selective. Indeed, multinational companies' senior managers benefit Despite the development problems in some of the oil rich Sub-
from high-profile training, most of which is internationally undertaken Saharan African countries, Kopiński et al. (2013) expect certain African
with a huge cost, whilst local workers undergo such programs occa- countries like Botswana or Ghana to achieve socio-economic progress
sionally and locally. In addition, during voluntarily or involuntary re- through the discovery of natural resources. They believe that Ghana's
dundancies, such local workers may not find another job as good as natural resource cannot be a curse, but at worst, a treatable disease.
their previous one, due to lack of continuous professional development However, Adams et al. (2018) reveal weak institutional frameworks
(Adams et al., 2019). Multinational companies in the resource sector within Ghana's oil sector. In addition, Adams et al. (2017) suggest that
always reserve top management positions to their favourite managers natural resource abundance contributes to financial development. It is
who may misrepresent information or alter reports to suit their personal these mixed effects of natural resources on development, coupled with
and principals' interests at the expense of local community development economic reforms (trade liberalization, political stability, control of
(Gray, 2013). In addition, Adams et al. (2017) find that multinational corruption) observed in certain African countries like Ivory Coast and
companies in the resource sector in the oil and gas sector continue to Ghana well-endowed in natural resources that justify this study. Con-
extract raw materials and expand their market base without much re- sequently, studies into the underlying causes of the paradox of plenty
cognition to the social responsibility implications of their resource reveal that there is a strong relationship between natural resources,

Fig. 2. Natural resources rents and severity of crises.


Note: lgdpcapitamean is the minimum level of GDP per capita in logarithm; lnatusd is the minimum level of natural resources rents in logarithm. Source: Author with
the data of WDI (2018).

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P.A.O. Henri Resources Policy 63 (2019) 101406

Fig. 3. Natural resources rents and GDP per capita.


Note: lgdpcapitamean is the average level of GDP per capita in logarithm; lnatu mean is the average level of natural resources rents in logarithm. Source: Author with
the data of WDI (2018).

Fig. 4. Natural resources rents and governance.


Note: governance is the average level of governance; lnatu is the average level of natural resources rents in logarithm. Source: Author with the data of WDI (2018)
and WGI (2018).

weak institutions, corruption, political instability, revenue misman- in primary school.


agement, poverty and economic stagnation.
3.1.1. Natural resource rents, volatility and severity of crises
3. Methodology Fig. 1 establishes a relationship between natural resources and vo-
latility and Fig. 2 establishes a relationship between natural resources
In this section, the effect of natural resource rents on certain eco- and severity of crises. Fig. 1 shows a negative relationship between
nomic and political indicators will be investigated using descriptive and natural resources and standard deviation (a measure of volatility of
econometric analysis. GDP per capita). In other words, resource-rich countries are not more
volatile despite the high volatility of raw material prices. However, the
3.1. Descriptive analysis severity of crises is observed in countries rich in natural resources since
Fig. 2 shows a negative relationship between natural resources rents
Descriptive analysis establishes a relationship between natural re- and minimum level of GDP per capital (the measure of severity of
sources, volatility of certain indicators and the severity of crises. The crises). Fig. 3 shows that GDP per capita is low in resource-rich coun-
volatility is measured by the standard deviation of GDP per capita and tries.
the severity of crises by the worst output drop of GDP per capita
(Acemoglu et al., 2003). Total natural resources rents is in percentage 3.1.2. Natural resources rents, governance, physical capital formation and
of GDP that is the sum of oil rents, natural gas rents, coal rents (hard enrolment in primary school
and soft), mineral rents, and forest rents in percentage of GDP. The In Fig. 4, governance is the sum of the following six Worldwide
relationship between natural resource rents, volatility and severity of Governance Indicators: regulatory quality; political stability and ab-
crisis will be first studied; followed by the relationship between natural sence of violence/terrorism; control of corruption; government effec-
resources rents, governance, physical capital formation and enrolment tiveness; rule of law; voice and accountability (see Table 1). Fig. 4

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P.A.O. Henri Resources Policy 63 (2019) 101406

Table 1
List of variables used, definition and sources.
Variable Definition Source

GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$) GDP per capita is divided by midyear population. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the WDI
economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products.
Gross capital formation per head It consists of outlays on additions to the fixed assets of the economy plus net changes in the level of inventories
Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) Gross domestic savings are calculated as GDP minus final consumption expenditure.
Primary school enrolment Gross enrolment ratio is the ratio of total enrolment, regardless of age, to the population of the age group that
officially corresponds to the level of education shown.
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) It reflects the annual percentage change in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and
services that may be fixed or changed at specified intervals, for example yearly.
Total natural resources rents (% of GDP It is given by the sum of oil rents, natural gas rents, coal rents (hard and soft), mineral rents, and forest rents.
General government final consumption General government final consumption expenditure includes all government current expenditures for purchases of
expenditure goods and services.
Total population Total population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status
or citizenship. The values shown are midyear estimates.
Control of Corruption It captures perceptions of the extent to which public power is exercised for private gain, including both petty and WGI
grand forms of corruption, as well as “capture” of the state by elites and private interests. Ranging from approximately
−2.5 to 2.5.
Government Effectiveness It captures perceptions of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service and the degree of its
independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation and implementation, and the credibility of
the government's commitment to such policies. Ranging from approximately −2.5 to 2.5.
Political Stability and Absence of Violence/ It measures perceptions of the likelihood of political instability and/or politically-motivated violence, including
Terrorism terrorism. Ranging from approximately −2.5 to 2.5.
Regulatory Quality It captures perceptions of the ability of the government to formulate and implement sound policies and regulations WGI
that permit and promote private sector development. Ranging from approximately −2.5 to 2.5.
Rule of Law It captures perceptions of the extent to which agents have confidence in and abide by the rules of society, and in
particular the quality of contract enforcement, property rights, the police, and the courts, as well as the likelihood of
crime and violence. Ranging from approximately −2.5 to 2.5.
Voice and Accountability It refers to perceptions of the extent to which a country's citizens are able to participate in selecting their government,
as well as freedom of expression, freedom of association, and a free media. Ranging from approximately −2.5 to 2.5.
Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of It is the sum of equity capital, reinvestment of earnings, other long-term capital, and short-term capital as shown in WDI
GDP) the balance of payments.
Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP) It refers to financial resources provided to the private sector by financial corporations, such as through loans,
purchases of non-equity securities, and trade credits and other accounts receivable, that establish a claim for
repayment.
Labour force The labor force is the number of people who are employed plus the unemployed who are looking for work
Real effective exchange rate The real effective exchange rate (REER) is the weighted average of a country's currency in relation to an index or
basket of other major currencies, adjusted for the effects of inflation. The weights are determined by comparing the
relative trade balance of a country's currency against each country within the index
Exports to developed countries (%of GDP) Exports to developed countries represent the value of all goods and other market services provided to developed
countries in % of GDP.
Access to electricity Percentage of citizens who have electricity

Fig. 5. Natural resources rents and capital per head.


Note: lktete is the logarithm average level of physical capital per head; lnatu is the average level of natural resources rents in logarithm. Source: Author with the data
of WDI (2018).

shows a strong negative relationship between natural resources rents of rule of law or justice; bad quality of public services; bad regulation;
and governance. In other words, resource-rich countries have weak problem of voice and accountability; political instability, violence and
institutions. In annex (table 6), it is showed that the most institutional terrorism. It should also be noted that natural resources retard the
problems caused by natural resources are by order: corruption; problem physical and human capital formation in Africa. Since Figs. 5 and 6

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P.A.O. Henri Resources Policy 63 (2019) 101406

Fig. 6. Natural resources rents and gross school enrolment in primary.


Note: school is gross enrolment ratio in primary; lnatu is the average level of natural resources rents in logarithm. Source: Author with the data of WDI (2018) and
Worldwide Governance Indicators (2018).

show that physical capita per head and gross school enrollment ratio in instruments should be correlated with the endogenous regressors, and
primary are low in resource-rich countries. they should be orthogonal to any other omitted characteristics and not
correlated with the error terms of equation (1).
3.2. Econometric analysis In this paper, the lag of the endogenous regressors will be used as
instruments. Tables 4 and 5 and 6 show that the test of Sargan is not
To investigate the relationship between natural resources and in- significant. In other words, the instruments are not correlated with the
stitutional and macroeconomic indicators, the method developed by error term meaning that the instruments are valid. In addition, the
Acemoglu et al. (2003) will be used. This method is chosen because it Kleibergen-Paap rk LM is significant at 1%. For this reason, the null
permits to estimate the effect of a variable on another while controlling hypothesis that the first stage is under-identified can be rejected, so the
the influence of other variables and the influence of time. This method instruments are correct (see Tables 4 and 5, and 6). For each equation,
was always used to test the natural resource curse (Van der Ploeg et al., the independent/dependent variables and instruments are presented in
2009). The period is 1992–2016 because of the available data on gov- Table 2.
ernance indicators. Another problem is that distortionary policy may matter for certain
The economic relationship of interest is: macroeconomic variables (see Table 3). This would be the case if some
African economies go through a period of about 5–10 years of an
X c, = Natuc , + Wc , + Ic, + Zc,
t 1, t t 1, t t 1, t t 1, t t 1, t overvalued exchange rate or high inflation, causing crises, but during
+ log yc, t 1, + c, t 1, t (1) other periods they experience low inflation and undervalued exchange
rates, making their average policies similar to those in other African
Where Xc; t-1; t is the variable of interest for country c between countries. To deal with this problem, equation will be estimated using a
times t and t-1. Natuc, t 1, t is total natural resources rents (% of GDP) panel of 5 years for each country between 1992 and 2016.
for country c between times t and t-1. The dependent variables are
overall volatility (standard deviation of the macroeconomic outcome),
the severity of crises (worst output drop) and the average growth rate 3.3. The Data
(the mean). Wc, t 1, t is a set of macroeconomic policies for country c
between times t and t-1: the measures of macroeconomic policies are: Data used in this study are from the World Bank, that is, the World
average size of government consumption, inflation, and real exchange Development Indicators (WDI) and the Worldwide Governance
rate. Ic, t 1, t is a measure of institutions for country c between times t Indicators (WGI). The period of study is 1992–2016. The geographical
and t-1: the measures of institutions are the Worldwide governance area of the study covers all African countries, except South Sudan,
indicators including control of corruption, political stability and ab- Djibouti, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Somalia, Sao Tomé and Zambia. These
sence of violence/terrorism, regulatory quality, voice and account- countries were excluded because of data availability.
ability, rule of law and government effectiveness. Zc, t 1, t is a vector of It can be observed that for the period 1992–2016 (5 years panel),
other controls variables, log yc, t 1, is the log of initial GDP per capita, African economies were more volatile. Indeed during this period, the
will included in some of the regressions. According to Barro (1999) standard deviation of GDP per capita was high (2958.469). The average
initial GDP per capita is included in growth regressions to control for level of natural resources rents in percentage of GDP is 13.177%. In
convergence effects. It is also useful to include it in regressions of vo- some countries, this statistic exceeds 69, 9% and its standard deviation
latility or crises (Acemoglu et al., 2003). c, t 1, t is error term for is 13.94. The value of real exchange rate is equal to 378 and the average
country c between times t and t-1. , , , , and are para- level of inflation in 10.2%. The average gross enrolment rate in primary
meters to be estimated. school is 91.7%. However, in certain countries like Mali or Eritrea, the
One strategy is to estimate equation (1) using ordinary OLS re- gross enrolment ratio in primary school sometimes does not exceed
gression. However, there are two problems with OLS regression: 1) 22%. The average GDP (constant 2010 US$) is 3.06e+10 dollars. But in
Certain independent variables such as macroeconomic policies or in- some African countries, it does not exceed 2.69e+08 dollars. The
stitutions variables are endogenous, 2. Governance indicators are quality of governance is bad in Africa since the average values of the six
measured with error. For the above reasons, the two-stage least squares governance indicators are negative.
(2SLS) will be used to estimate equation (1), with distinct and plausible
instruments for both macro policy variables and institutions. These

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P.A.O. Henri Resources Policy 63 (2019) 101406

4. Econometric results

Lag variable

Lag variable

Lag variable

Lag variable

Lag variable
Instrument

4.1. Natural resources rents, volatility and crisis in Africa

4.1.1. Findings
The results are presented in Tables 4 and 5. It is observed that natural
and error of

and error of

and error of

and error of

and error of
resources rents reduce volatility but increase the severity of crises in
Africa. Indeed, the coefficients of natural resources rents are negative in
both volatility measured by standard deviation and severity of crises
Double causality

Double causality

Double causality

Double causality

Double causality measured by minimum value of GDP per capita. It should be recalled that
when the standard deviation increases the country experiences high vo-
Justification

latility and the severity of crises is high when the GDP per capita is at the
measure

measure

measure

measure

measure

worse level. In addition, this study also shows that economies with weak
institutions are more volatility. For example, the coefficients of govern-
ance indicators (control of corruption, political stability, voice and ac-
Physical capital formation, domestic credit to private sector, real exchange rate, resources rent, political stability,
Physical capital formation, inflation, labour force, domestic credit to private sector, real exchange rate, resources
Physical capital formation, inflation, real exchange rate, resources rent, political stability, control of corruption,

Physical capital formation, inflation, real exchange rate, resources rent, political stability, control of corruption,

countability and regulatory quality) are negative in equations of volatility


Domestic credit to private sector, natural resources rent, Aggregated indicator of governance, gross national

and positive in equations of severity of crises. This result implies that


standard deviation of growth per capita declines with governance and the
quality of institutions reduces the severity of crises.
Concerning the control variables, the effect of initial level of GDP per
voice and accountability, regulatory quality, exports to developed countries. electricity access

voice and accountability, regulatory quality, exports to developed countries. electricity access

capita is positive and physical investment volatility has a positive effect on


GDP per capita volatility. In other words, volatility decreases with GDP per
capita and increases with physical capital. In other words, resource rents
could be used to finance investments in LDCs that are capable of absorbing
them. The results also indicate that physical investment volatility has a
positive effect on GDP per capita volatility. The observation is made for
the following variables: electricity access and school enrolment. This could
be justified by the fact that growth is very intensive in physical capital in
Africa. The economic costs of physical capital volatility induced by natural
resources rents come from firms making uncertainty (Ramey and Ramey,
1995). These economic costs increase if it is costly to switch factors of
production between sectors. However, if enterprises choose to use dif-
ferent technologies with a higher expected return or if higher volatility
rent, Political stability, control of corruption

induces more investment. If productivity enhancing activities is are sub-


saving, GDP per capita, electricity access.

stitute to production, the opportunity cost of activity that generates pro-


ductivity growth is lower in recessions and thus volatility of natural re-
Endogenous independent variables

sources rents may boost GDP per capita growth (Aghion et al., 2006; Van
der Ploeg, 2010b).

4.1.2. Analysis
control of corruption

The link between natural resources and the severity of crises can be
explained by the fact that raw materials prices are more volatile and
justify why natural resources rents are so volatile. Crude petroleum
prices are extremely volatile than food prices and ores and metals prices
Specification of endogenous independent variables and instruments used.

(Aghion et al., 2006). However, other factors than natural resources


rents may explain GDP per capita volatility in Africa. For instance,
landlocked countries suffer much more from volatility. Following Van
initial GDP

initial GDP

initial GDP

initial GDP

der Ploeg et al. (2009), certain African countries who are less than
49 km from the nearest waterway have a standard deviation of growth
in GDP per capita that is 1.6% points lower than countries that are more
School enrolment,

School enrolment,

School enrolment,

School enrolment,

School enrolment,

than 359 km from the nearest waterway. In addition, remote countries


are more likely to have undiversified exports and to experience greater
volatility in output growth. Indeed, landlocked countries with a large
Exogenous

per capita

per capita

per capita

per capita

dependence on natural resources are typically less diversified and vul-


nerable to volatile world commodity prices. Koren et al. (2007) ex-
plained why LDCs are more volatile than developed countries. They
suggest four reasons why LDCs are extremely volatile than developed
Physical capital per head (mean)

countries: they specialize in extremely volatile sectors; specialize in


GDP per capita (minimum)

fewer sectors; experience more frequent and more severe aggregate


GDP per capita (standard

shocks; their macroeconomic fluctuations are more highly correlated


GDP per capita (mean)

with the shocks of the sectors they specialize in. The stylized facts
Governance (mean)

suggest that the structure of production shifts from more to less volatile
deviation)

sectors with GDP per capita growth. Also, the degree of specialization
Equation

declines in early stages of development and increases a little in later


Table 2

stages of development. Furthermore, the volatility of country-specific


macroeconomic shocks falls with development. Dutch Disease effects

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P.A.O. Henri Resources Policy 63 (2019) 101406

Table 3
Descriptive statistics.
Source: Author with the data of WDI (2018) and WGI (2018).
Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max

Natural resources rents (%of GDP) 316 13.177 13.94232 0 68.91213


Credit to private sector (%of GDP) 310 20.16224 22.62921 .543904 147.6133
Electricity access 307 50.220409 6.572072 25.963953 100
GDP 316 3.06e+10 6.63e+10 2.69e+08 4.52e+11
GDP per capita capita in dollars 316 2176.429 2958.469 122.8561 18075.18
Government final consumption (%of GDP) 307 16.00925 8.722854 2.057589 88.98288
Fixed capital formation (%of GDP) 308 21.05916 14.77498 −2.424358 219.0694
Gross fixe capital per head in dollars 308 9986350 1.92e+07 139149.5 2.27e+08
Gross national saving (%of GDP) 307 13.20294 20.17812 −141.9739 92.66588
Labour force 319 9303813 1.33e+07 42024 9.36e+07
Inflation 316 10.26915 346.3833 −15.4237 4800.532
Gross school enrolment in primary 253 91.70803 25.63062 21.53095 145.2491
Real effective exchange rate 283 378.5311 610.994 0 4801.083
Exports to developed countries (%of GDP) 311 61.74057 23.83703 1.133578 99.30738
Governance (sum of six indicators) 317 −3.897153 3.690403 −11.57613 5.279357
Control of corruption 320 -.5936616 .6359919 −1.647852 1.216737
Government effectiveness 317 -.6876129 .6382628 −1.891474 1.049441
Political stability 320 -.5557101 .9279212 −2.681914 1.219244
Regulatory quality 320 -.6550588 .6346157 −2.274259 1.091458
Rule of law 320 -.6857991 .6754838 −2.008507 1.044188
Voice and accountabilty 320 -.6552438 .7307267 −2.20278 1.015621

also induces volatility of real exchange rate and thus a fall in macro- share of intermediate goods in output and on the degree of com-
economic indicators such as, private investment and further contraction plementarity of inputs in the production process. Diversification thus
of the traded sector and lower productivity growth. limits propagation of these shocks and reduces the impact of shocks on
The relationship between governance and volatility and severity of aggregate output volatility.
crises can be explained as follows: a large causal effect of governance on
volatility is that governance have an effect on volatility and severity of 4.2. Natural resources rents and average growth of GDP per capita in Africa
crises, but the macroeconomic policies (inflation and real exchange
rate) are the main mediating channel for this effect. For instance, 4.2.1. Findings
Johnson et al. (2000) found that investor protection measures were This study also shows that African economies countries that start off
significantly correlated with exchange rate depreciations and stock with lower level of GDP per capita tend to grow faster than other
market declines across emerging markets in 1997–1998. Indeed weak African countries, hence the negative sign of the variable initial GDP
institutions cause economic instability, and these institutional problems per capita. This is aligned with the augmented Solow growth theory and
lead to bad macroeconomic outcomes via a variety of mediating findings of other empirical studies. For the GDP per capita equation,
channels. Distortionary macroeconomic policies are part of these these regressions show the negative association between natural re-
channels, or in other words, they are part of the tools that groups in sources rents and GDP per capita growth, after controlling for a number
power use in order to enrich themselves and to remain in power. But of additional variables like gross capital formation, gross primary
they are only one of many possible tools, and a variety of complex school enrolment and indicators of governance. The estimated coeffi-
factors, which we do not currently understand, determine which of cient of the natural resources rents is −0128. This implies that an in-
these tools get used in various circumstances. These macroeconomic crease of the mean of natural resources rents is associated with a re-
problems like volatility, inflation, unemployment, and the dis- duction in growth of GDP per capita growth.
appointing macroeconomic performance suffered by these economies, Further, physical capital investment is a strong determinant of
are symptoms of deeper institutional causes (Acemoglu et al., 2003). growth since the coefficient of gross fixed capital is positive and sig-
Volatility decreases with GDP per capita because it is not necessarily nificant at 1% and the variable electricity access (our indicator of in-
optimal for developing countries with low capital to establish funds frastructures) is also significant at 1%. Human capital is also positive in
(Van der Ploeg, 2010b). In addition, less diversified economies like most regressions since the variable school enrolment is significant at
African economies face higher risk of external shocks. Low levels of 1%. There is a positive relation between GDP per growth and institu-
diversification are associated with higher volatility and economies rich tional quality as the coefficient of variable governance is 0.541. This
in raw materials tend to have greater export concentration which itself result was explained by Rodrik (1999) and Tornell and Lane (1999).
is strongly correlated with higher GDP per capita volatility. For this According to them, governance directly affects the relative profitability
reason, Joya (2015) showed that diversification minimizes GDP per of unproductive and productive entrepreneurial.
capita fluctuations that result from natural resources rents for a number
reasons. First, from a portfolio theory perspective, as the economy is
4.2.2. Analysis
more diversified, opportunities for risk diversification through secto-
The above results confirm the paradox of plenty in Africa. Indeed, over
rally-diversified investment is stronger and hence output variance is
a 20-year period, natural resources rents can reduce per-capita GDP by
minimized. Second, depending on the substitutability of inputs, di-
about 7%, other things constant (Sachs and Warner, 1999). In other words,
versification makes it possible for firms to substitute inputs of one
the positive effects of raw materials on GDP per capita growth are trumped
sector with those of another. Overall, diversity of economies limits
by their adverse indirect effects of volatility (Gelb, 1988). Indeed, primary
propagation of shocks in the country. Third, in concentrated economies
commodities are known to exacerbate GDP per capita volatility which has
with limited number of enterprises operating, linkages between en-
a significant costs in terms decline in GDP per capita growth, increase in
terprises are stronger, i.e. transactions between enterprises are higher.
inflation, volatility of final consumption, increase in public deficit, and
Shocks to one sector transmit strongly to another, depending on the
increase inequality and poverty. Ramey and Ramey (1995) found that

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Table 4
Estimated effects of natural resources rents on volatility and on severity of crises.
VARIABLES lgdpcapitasd lgdpcapitamin

Standard deviation of Real effective exchange rate 0.0361


(0.0264)
Standard deviation of inflation 0.0938**
(0.0368)
Standard deviation of government final consumption 0.0670
(0.0582)
Standard deviation of fixed capital formation in % of GDP 0.181***
(0.0450)
Standard deviation of natural resources rents in % of GDP −0.125***
(0.0405)
Initial level of GDP per capita −1.205*** −0.0134
(0.120) (0.0133)
Standard deviation of political stability −0.521**
(0.212)
Standard deviation of voice and accountability −1.410***
(0.287)
Standard deviation of control of corruption −1.248***
(0.431)
Standard deviation of regulatory quality −0.709**
(0.308)
Standard deviation of gross school enrolment 0.218***
(0.0379)
Electricity access 5.249***
(0.393)
Standard deviation of Exports to developed countries (%of GDP) −0.0652
(0.0403)
Minimun value of natural resources rents in % of GDP −0.1794***
(0.0612)
Minimum value of fixed capital formation in % of GDP −0.0134***
(0.00505)
Minimum value of real effective exchange rate 0.0124***
(0.00326)
Minimum value of control of corruption 0.0216
(0.0176)
Minimum value of political stability 0.0346***
(0.00785)
Minimum value of voice and accountability 0.0538***
(0.0133)
Minimum value of regulatory quality 0.0893***
(0.0146)
Minimum value of school enrolment in primary 0.0135
(0.0174)
lenergyintm 0.740***
(0.0369)
Maximum value of inflation 0.0143***
(0.00395)
854 1044
0.96 0.9504
47 47
Kleibergen-paap rk LM testrk LM statistic 361,25(0,000) 437,39(0,000)
Sargan test 2,19(0,333) 1,85(0,4012)

Note: Standard errors in parentheses; ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.
Author with the data of WDI (2018) and Worldwide Governance Indicators (2018

volatility of natural resources rents adversely affects GDP per capita countries rich in natural resources. In other words, natural resources
growth. In fact, when an economy experiences higher volatility of natural rents may give rise to civil conflict, cause political instability and
resources rents, it tends to have lower mean GDP per capita growth. The conflicts, affect political structures and incentives. This result implies
core of the Dutch disease evidence is that natural resources dependence in that natural resources rents are associated with poor macroeconomic
general shift resources away from sectors of the economy that have po- policy. Indeed, raw material abundance weakens the institutions, da-
sitive externalities for growth. There is supportive evidence that African mages democracy, increases the probability of civil war, encourages
countries rich in natural resources tend to have a larger service sector and bad regulation policies, and leads to poor development outcomes.
smaller industrial sectors than African economies poor in natural resources
(Sachs and Warner, 1997). In addition, economies rich in raw materials 4.3.2. Analysis
tend to experience slower GDP per capita growth in exports of manu- In the absence of strong legal-political institutions, natural resources
factures (Sachs and Warner, 1997). rents contribute more to the deterioration of the quality of the in-
stitutions. Tornell and Lane (1999) present a theoretical model in
4.3. IV/3 Natural resources rents and institutions in Africa which, politically powerful groups are able to shift natural resources
rents to a less efficient, but untaxable, informal sector. For example,
4.3.1. Findings Torvik (2002) and Olsson (2007) showed that if institutions are weak,
Another result of this study is that institutions are weak in African raw materials draw other production factors away from constructive

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Table 5
Estimated effects of natural resources rents on governance, GDP per capita and physical Capita per head.
VARIABLES Gdp per capita K per head Governance
(mean) (mean) (mean)

Natural resources rents in % of GDP (mean) −0.128*** −0.714*** −1.049***


(0.0242) (0.0647) (0.117)
Agrgated indicator of governance (mean) 0.0227*** 0.0668***
(0.00803) (0.0158)
Gross national saving (mean) 0.0662*** 0.153***
(0.0237) (0.0524)
GDP per capita (mean) −0.219
(0.147)
Initial value of GDP per capita −0.940*** 0.524***
(0.0551) (0.187)
Credit to private sector in % GDP (mean) 0.186***
(0.0321)
Gross school enrolment in primary (mean) 0.172*** 0.553*** 0.553***
(0.0465) (0.0627) (0.190)
Gross fixe capital per head (mean) 0.175*** 0.427***
(0.0524) (0.107)
Electricity access 0.147***
(0.0353)
Governance 0.541*** 0.432***
(0.121) (0.101)

Observations 820 805 812


R-squared 0.92 0.91 0.90
Number of pays 47 47 47
Kleibergen-paap rk LM test 345,5(0,000) 402,9(0,000) 388(0,000)
Sargan test 2,24(0,312) 1,78(0,488) 1,95(0,4016)

Note: Standard errors in parentheses; ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1.
Author with the data of WDI (2018) and Worldwide Governance Indicators (2018).

uses towards destructive rent-seeking. Following Murshed (2004), capital has been explained by Gylfason and Zoega (2006). According to
natural resources rents lead to political instability and rent seeking in them, raw materials booms can also reduce GDP per capita growth by
economies with weak institutions, or that the elite deliberately seeks to lowering the accumulation of technological knowledge and with-
undermine institutions so as to facilitate kleptocracy. In Robinson et al. drawing productive resources out of manufacturing. Increase in na-
(2005), because of natural resources, public administrations drive re- tional income due to raw materials discoveries may lead to sloth and
sources towards bloated sectors that act as vehicles of rent distribution, reduced awareness of the need for governance (Sachs and Warner,
thus diverting national income away from more socially fruitful eco- 1995; Gylfason, 2001). It may also create a false sense of security and
nomic activity. Furthermore, huge primary goods may create oppor- weaken the perceived need for physical capital accumulation, human
tunities for corruption on a large scale on the part of industries and capital formation, and growth-promoting strategies. Natural resources
public institutions. A related idea is that natural resource rents en- rents may also reduce physical capital in manufacturing sector because
courage corruption, leading to over expanded general wastage distorts non-primary exports are often harmed by an appreciation of the real
fiscal policy when natural resources extraction are geographically exchange rate. Consequently, raw materials abundant economies
concentrated (Bleaney and Halland, 2014). Brunnschweiler and Bulte usually experience a drop in manufacturing and other non-primary
(2008) explained that the quality of institutions is endogenous to raw exports. Primary commodities may crowd-out industrial activity by
materials abundance. Raw materials might induce more rent-seeking, encouraging economics agents to work in the primary sector and it thus
increase political conflicts and the likelihood of bad macroeconomic directs physical capital away from the manufacturing sector into the
policies, and hinder the functioning of democratic institutions (Barro, primary sector (Papyrakis and Gerlagh, 2007).
1999; Collier and Hoeffler, 2005). That is natural resources damage
development and democratization in authoritarian regimes (Al-Ubaydl, 5. Conclusion
2012). Another case involves foreign countries invading with destruc-
tive consequences and the accompanying defence expenditures The purpose of this article was to identify the institutional and
(Gylfason and Zoega, 2006). macroeconomic indicators that are more worsen by natural resources
rents. The study begun by the literature review and the methodology.
4.4. Natural resources rents and physical capital accumulation in Africa The author used the two-stage least squares (2SLS) and the data of
World bank (WDI and WGI) for the period 1992–2016.The results show
4.4.1. Findings that the most institutional problems caused by natural resources rents
The effect of natural resources rents on physical capital accumula- are by order: corruption; problem of rule of law or justice; bad quality
tion is also negative as the coefficient of natural resources rents is of public services; bad regulations; problem of voice and accountability;
−0.714. This means that natural resources booms crowd out physical political instability. Natural resources also cause volatility of GDP per
capital and have a negative effect on economic growth. Indeed, raw capita, lead to low level of physical and human capital accumulation.
materials abundance hampers GDP per capita abundance by cutting For these reasons, African countries should promote good governance
national saving and reducing investment in the long run. and diversify their economies. In other to improve performance in re-
source sector, our future research will identify the key macroeconomic
4.4.2. Analysis indicators that are more volatile because of natural resource rents in
This negative effect of natural resource rents on human and physical Africa.

11
P.A.O. Henri Resources Policy 63 (2019) 101406

Appendix A. Supplementary data

Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101406.

Annex. Annex

Table 6
Correlation between natural resources rents and the six indicators of governance

natu corr law stapo regu voice gov

natu 1.0000
corr −0.5172 1.0000
law −0.5140 0.8426 1.0000
stapo −0.3530 0.6353 0.7788 1.0000
regu −0.4755 0.7309 0.8472 0.6290 1.0000
voice −0.4237 0.6751 0.7729 0.6277 0.7396 1.0000
gov −0.4867 0.8075 0.8631 0.6490 0.8581 0.7026 1.0000

Source: Author with the data of WDI (2018) and WGI (2018).

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